Is Turkey the way OUT for the WIMP Trump - Update

Guardian: Reports " Iran seeks to avert US military action with talks in Ankara...Turkey hosts urgent mediation as Trump’s threats mount and Tehran weighs painful compromises to avoid conflict "

Lets Get Real:

The more Trump waits convinces this blog that he is a WIMP.  As the last month has show he backs down under pressure, from Greenland, his slander of British Troops in Afghanistan and now ICE killing of two Americans as they protest the Trump attempt to throw out illegal immigrants.   The Trump Oval is getting pressure from Middle East allies, and his MAG base not to attack, thus Turkey could be his way out, he has the blood of Iranian  protesters on his hands, he said he would come to the rescue and he failed them.  The Democrats should take the House in November, Americans do not like weak leaders, look at what happened to President Biden after his rash exit of Afghanistan.   Reagan and JFK were strong leaders, so in many respects were Bush 41 and Bush 43, after the failure of the peace in Iraq, Bush 43 still won in 2004 Presidential Election, LBJ had to withdraw after doing badly in the 1968 New Hampshire primary, and President Biden had to withdraw after the most disastrous  Debate in Presidential history in 2024.  Trump's poll number are in the toilet, he will get impeached by the Democratic House in 2026, and the Republicans might fancy their chances with a President Vance in the OVAL.

Bush 43 to attend the swearing in of President Biden - Biden Era

Daily Mail: Reports " 'Peaceful transfer of power is hallmark of our democracy': George W. Bush in thinly veiled dig at Trump as he confirms attendance at Biden inauguration "

Lets Get Real:

The Bush family is part of the American elite, Bush 43's grandfather was a US Senator, his father was Vice - President and President in his own right from 1989 to 1993 when he failed to win re-election in 1992.   Then Bush 43 who was twice elected Governor of Texas was elected in 2000 or selected by the US Supreme Court, take your pick on that.  The Bush Dynasty has class and understands history, Bush 43 is a great reader of history, and understands the importance of form, if they are not ill former Presidents normally attend the swearing in of their successor.  One does not see Trump attending events with former Presidents, he is thinking of 2024 and can he keep his base within the Republican Party.  The Republican Party needs a new Reagan someone who can go to toe with Trump and has loads of charisma, WHO IS THE QUESTION?

Kerry of 2004 looking for another run as POTUS - Iowa 2020 - Part3 - US Election 2020

Guardian - Live Blog ( Iowa ): Reports the following in its 12.20pm post, " The controversy this weekend which saw former secretary of state John Kerry overheard seemingly suggesting he might jump into the presidential race illustrates the nervousness within the Democratic establishment about how well Bernie Sanders is doing.  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus former Senator, former Secretary of State John F. Kerry is thinking of another run for the Oval Office, he tried that in 2004 against Bush 43 and failed, the Democratic Establishment is better at looking for Mayor Bloomberg to run for the Oval as  their nominee, he has the money, he is a billionaire, and might have a fighting chance against POTUS.  If the Democratic Party goes left wards it might make the base happy but it could cost the Party the Oval, the House and the Senate.   There is no way in hell that a majority of Americans will vote for the socialist Sanders, he is not even a registered Democrat.   One can only hope that Biden pulls off a shock victory in Iowa and New Hampshire. 

Booker for President ? - Trump Era

CNN - Politics: Reports " Cory Booker says he's nearing 2020 decision as he swings through key southern states "

Lets Get Real:

Senator Booker is NOT Barack Obama, he does not have "IT", HE does not have the charisma, the left leaning voters of the Democratic base are not going to HELP the Democrats in 2020.   The FACT that former President Jimmy Carter endorsed him is not going to help the Senator, one can see the Republican Adverts already, do you want another Carter in the Oval Office.   One can see Senators Booker or Harris as VP, the question is who will be the nominee, not Senator Warren, President Trump would love her as the Democratic nominee, her attempts to explain why she thought she was a native American were foolish, even the Native American tribe she claimed to be part of disavowed her, also she is LIBERAL Democrat from a State that has produced two failed Presidential bids, in 1988 and 2004.  What about former VP Biden, he would appeal to white working class, but he has tried to run before and has failed, also lets be very honest here, he is OLD and has a FOOT IN THE MOUTH problem.  Also he is pandering to the liberal base, he has stated that he regrets supporting tough criminal laws in the 1980s and 1990s.  This might go down well on the East and West Coast but what about the rust belt States, he is ahead in the polls become people know the name, the race has not started yet.    This blog is still waiting for that candidate you like, leads and it not lead, liberal on social issues but tough on foreign policy, thus far not very impressed, POTUS could WIN big in 2020.

Should Oprah RUN in 2020 - Trump Era

Guardian: Reports " ‘NOPRAH! Do we really need another celebrity president?’ read the front page of Tuesday’s New York Post. A critique in Slate on Monday was headlined ‘Oprah? Really?’ and bemoaned the “impossibly boring” current crop of major political figures, making people more likely to vote for celebrities like Trump or Winfrey.  "

Lets Get Real:

Reagan in 1964 started his path to the White House with a speech in support of Senator Barry Goldwater, Obama started his path in 2004 in support of Senator John F. Kerry.  Thus it has been shown that A speech can start the process, Reagan become a Governor in 1966, ran as a dark horse candidate for President in 1968, ran a close fight with President Ford in 1976 and become POTUS in 1980.  In the case of President Obama, he ran for the Senate, hardly stayed long, wise, ran for President in 2008 and won.  Ms Winfrey has the brand name from her TV show and is a successful businesswoman, and a good speech to the Golden Globes awards show, but can she face being in the cold campaign of Iowa and New Hampshire in January, that is a different matter.   Thus blog would not shockd if she did  run, after Trump anything is possible. 

Will Secretary Kerry be fired ?- War on Terror 2

The New York Times: Reports this political attack on US Secretary of State John F. Kerry, " Mr. Kerry is vocal and forceful in internal debates, officials said, but he frequently gets out of sync with the White House in his public statements. White House officials joke that he is like the astronaut played by Sandra Bullock in the movie “Gravity,” somersaulting through space, untethered to the White House. "

Lets Get Real:

The Oval Office is looking for someone to take the blame for the disaster that is the 2nd Obama Administration when it comes to Foreign Policy.   In essence the White House is saying that Secretary Kerry is not the voice of the President of the United States.   This blog warned the Oval that is was a bad to hire Secretary Kerry, lets recall Kerry has been a Lt. Governor of his State, then a leading member of the US Senate, he was the 2004 nominee for the Democratic Party, he lost to Bush 43.  In pure political terms he is a major political player in his own right, thus it can be suggested that he follows own lead, then has to get back in line with the White House.   One can only wonder what Secretary Kerry thinks of the above remarks, if your the US Secretary of State the power you have comes form how close you are to the Oval and if you advice is taken on board.   If your seen as a lose gun, then when you argue with foreign powers they will wonder are you speaking for yourself or the Oval.   The political clock could be ticking on Secretary Kerry, the question is who will the Oval want as his next Secretary of State. 

Jeb Bush for 2016 - The Bush vs. Clinton rematch

CNN - Politics: Reports from inside the Bush clan on the prospects of Jeb Bush running in 2016, the article notes the following, ".....in an exclusive interview with CNN, Jeb's brother, Neil, made it clear that his dad -- George H.W. Bush -- wants his son to run, ".

Lets Get Real:

So that is the choice faced by US voters, either a President Bush or a President Clinton.  This blog has come around to supporting Jeb Bush for the Republican Nomination in 2016, Governor Christie seems to have burned his bridges, sorry to easy a joke to miss, thus we are left with Jeb Bush, he is seen as the smartest of the Bush boys, the one that Bush 41 wanted to be President, the question that he will be asked on the campaign trail is what he thinks of the record of Bush 43 when it comes to Foreign Policy, while Clinton will have to deal with being Secretary of State in the 1st Obama Administration and its failure with Russia, and what if anything she achieved while in that post.    Also lets not forget that it was on her watch that the US Ambassador to Libya and three others were killed by terrorists, what was her role in D.C that night, why had she not placed more troops in Libya.   One wonders how the good relationship between President Clinton and Bush 41 could carry on in a tough Presidential fight, family is family after all, and you take power with the support of the voters. 

The US and the Ukraine - 2nd Term Blues

Telegraph: Reports on US policy towards the protesters in the Ukraine, " John Kerry to meet Ukrainian opposition leaders in Germany ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus the US Secretary of State John Kerry IS finally doing something about the Ukraine, he has waited long enough, one does wonder does the Oval have Kerry on a lead, that is the problem when you make someone like Kerry your Secretary of State, Kerry is a War hero, was Lt Governor of his State, was a US Senator and was the Democratic nominee for President in 2004, he has his own political base.   It can be argued its better to appoint someone who does not have his political base within the Party and in his dreams thinks he should be in the Oval.  The Obama Administration has to be careful that it does not push to hard, the Kremlin has a vast interest in the Ukraine, if Putin thinks that the US is trouble making in his own backyard he could cause problems with Syria and Iran.   The Oval has to be careful, and keep an eye on Kerry, just in case he is free lancing for himself and not for the Oval Office. 

Chris Huhne Sorry - Liberal Democrats

Guardian: Reports on a interview given by the former Cabinet Minister Chris Huhne to the paper, the article notes the following, “ Jailed ex-minister tells the Guardian he accepts responsibility for chain of events that led to prison and loss of political career  ”. 

Lets Get Real:

This is good PR by the Huhne Camp, the Guardian has given him a easy interview, this follows a pattern by the left wing press, they cover for their own, reader if this was a Conservative politician do you think the Guardian would have this kind of interview.  NO WAY IN HELL.  This has echoes of the Edwards case in the US, when the liberal NYT would not investigate a former Democratic Nominee for VP in 2004 over his affair.  The left wing press cover for their own, that is why this blog has no trust in the elite media, they drink from the same water, if it is a Conservative then they will go in to destroy mode, shame on the press, the Liberal Democrats even had nice things to say about Huhne at their recent conference, that shows rotten the Liberal Democrats are, just like the Democrats with Senator Edward Kennedy after Chappaquiddick. 

Bush 41 on Bush 43 - Bush Legacy

CNN - Politics: Reports on the update release of the letters and emails of Bush 41 in a new book by Bush 41.  The article notes the following, “  These newly revealed observations by the 41st president about his son the 43rd president, are outlined in an updated book "All the Best, George Bush; My Life in Letters and Other Writings," .. ”. 

Lets Get Real:

It is interesting folks, Bush 43 was seen as the political son of Ronald Reagan, to the right of his father, for Bush 43 retaking the Oval was revenge for Bill Clinton defeating his father in 1992, he defeated VP Gore in 2000 by few hundred votes in Florida.   Thus Bill Clinton was the man in between the Bush Presidencies, the nightmare for LBJ was if Senator Robert Kennedy had lived and won in 1968, he would have been the guy between the Kennedy Presidencies.   In many ways Bush 43 was totally different from his father, he pushed for lower taxes, he was going in to Iraq one way or another after 9/11.  In the first Gulf War, Bush 41 had not gone to take down the Iraqi Regime, he stated that he would have lost his allies and gone beyond the UN resolution.   Bush 43 allowed UK PM Tony Blair to try the UN route before he was blocked by the French, after that the US was going in to Iraq.  Then it can be postulated that at his core Bush 43 wanted a 2nd term as show he was not his father, and thus he beat Senator Kerry in 2004.   One can tell from an article or book the slant if it about Bush 43, the way Bush 41 dealt with Iraq as compared to the son, it is of course interesting, but its all to recent folks, it will take 20/30 years before father and son can judge and their time in the Oval.  This blog read the first edition of the Bush letters, it will buy the new version when it comes out. 

President Obama and the US Courts

BBC News: Reports that a Federal Court in Washington D.C has decided that President Obama made illegal appointments when the US Congress was in recess. 

Lets Get Real:

Is this a political omen folks, all 2nd term Presidencies have one scandal or a disaster, and they tend to have started in the 1st term, Watergate for Nixon after 72, Iran - Contra for Reagan after 84, Clinton was impeached after his 96 win, and Bush 43 had Iraq and the collapse of the Western economic system, thus will Obama overreach, of course he will, they ALL do folks, a second term President is like a ancient King, he thinks he is Gods gift, that his judgement far above any other mortal, and that the system can not go on without him, Obama arrogance is well known, it would be ironic if the Nobel Prize winner fell due to a charge by the UN that he had broken international law due to the use of drones, he is the Godfather of these strikes, he green lights the kill list with the national security council.   One doubts that the UN would be that bold, but it does raise some interesting talk on the political left. 

Syria Crisis - Syrian Update

Telegraph: Reports the latest on the Syrian Crisis, " Russian officials told the Daily Telegraph that Moscow was prepared to ease the Syrian president out of power. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The WASP in this deal folks is Iran, the Tehran Regime will want President Assad to hang on, the Assad Regime gives Iran access to covertly attack Israel through Lebanon and Gaza.   If Assad goes one can expect that Iran will push to get the bomb, they have seen what happened to Gaddafi of Libya when he gave him his WMDs, he got a bayonet in not a nice place before he was killed, while North Korea can blackmail the world because it has the bomb.  To secure the Assad the Regime the Tehran Regime has been sending military supplies through Iraqi airspace, thus far the Obama Administration has not placed enough pressure on Iraq to stop these flights.  The Syrian Civil War, the unrest in Egypt, Iran on the way to the bomb, Israel building will ALL be on the desk of Secretary Kerry.   When it comes to Syria its not only Russia folks, its the Persian threat from Iran, lets see if Kerry is as good as he thinks he is, if 2004 election is any judge, God Help US. 

Mr Secretary - State Update

Guardian: Reports the following on the selection of Senator Kerry to be the new US Secretary of State, ".. is expected to have a relatively easy ride through the congressional approval process, .. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is a mistake folks, the Oval and the State will but heads sooner or later, one can guess that Kerry thinks he should be in the Oval, as Secretary of State he could cause real problems for the Oval and the Democrats.  One has to postulate that before POTUS bombs Iran he will have Secretary of State who will want to visit Tehran, try to get a deal, a deal that Israel will never accept and thus problems for the Oval and Israel.   Lets be clear, Kerry has been marked by his service in Vietnam, what ever you think about that service, he was an anti Vietnam protester, so he is going to support POTUS if he has to make the hard decision to bomb Tehran as to prevent Israel taking action and starting a regional war.   The Europeans might love the idea of Kerry at  State but Democrats in 2014 and 2016 might have to highly critical of him down the line, but then the Oval does not listen to this blog, wise or not is a matter of opinion, happy holidays Mr President.  

Benghazi Deaths - Libyan Update

Telegraph: Reports the following on the State Department Report on the Benghazi Deaths, " has strongly criticised State Department security arrangements there as "grossly inadequate."   ". 

Lets Get Real:

The question that really has to be asked folks IS will Secretary Clinton ever face a Congressional Committee when it comes to the Libyan deaths, how will the Republicans play this issue over the next four years, it is the general view within the D.C that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee in 2016, it will not be VP Biden, thus will Republican supporting groups do a Kerry of 2004 on Clinton in 2016, will they start undermine her national security profile, the death of the US Ambassador in Libya was the 1st such death in 30 years, the Clinton Camp have a problem, they need to get the Secretary out there, taking the tough questions in one go,  not having to answer the same questions over the next four years.    This is serious for the Clinton Camp folks, at the end of the day Secretary Clinton has taken the political blame for Libya but she has not faced Congress, she of late has had the flue and has hurt her head with a fall, those with a more cynical view have stated, typical of a Clinton, avoiding tough questions, on the hope that the issue will go away, its not new for the Clinton Camp, Bill Clinton and the Impeachment process.   Thus if Hillary Clinton wants to be the 2016 nominee she has to get in front of this issue, its a political IED that could go off at any time and derail her attempt in 2016.    Thus political advice to Clinton Camp, have the Secretary go before Congress in 2013, how ever long and answer all their questions, then when the issue comes up again, say go read the Congressional transcript.   Lets see how the Clintons play this issue folks. 

Susan Rice - NOT Madam Secretary

Guardian: Reports that the US UN Ambassador Susan Rice has withdrawn from the race to be the next US Secretary of State, the blog states the following, " To many seasoned observers it looks like the president has just lost a high-profile fight with Republicans over a potential nominee he has very publicly defended, indeed is personally linked to. ".

Lets Get Real: 

Thus the Obama 2nd term starts with a defeat folks, this does recall Bush 41 wanting Senator Tower to be his Defence Secretary but failing in the Senate, the next pick was Richard Cheney, yes folks that Cheney, in the liberal view the Dark side of the Bush 43 Administration.   In the Clinton 1st term the Oval has a nightmare in getting a Attorney General, this kind of defeat needs good PR and a good replacement and fast as to move the news cycle.   As the blog states the frontrunner for the job is Senator Kerry, this would be a mistake by the Oval, Kerry is a War hero, Lt Governor, Senator and the 2004 Democratic Nominee, very hard to control folks once he is in the job.  Thus good advice to President Obama, pick someone you like and trust, but with no political base, someone who will bring you good advice but has no PR presence if possible, and will allow the Oval to run Foreign Affairs,   This is good advice to the Oval and its free. 

The Political Demise of Susan Rice ? - Obama 2nd Term

Guardian: Has a profile of the US UN Ambassador Susan Rice and her fight to be the next Secretary of State, the article states the following, " ..But, in the vipers' nest of Washington DC, she has now made enemies. Nor do they seem likely to be placated. ".

Lets Get Real:

It seems even the left wing Guardian is reading the tea leaves on this folks, the Republicans in the Senate have made it clear, even the moderate Republicans that there will be blood on the carpet should the Oval try to get Rice in to State.   IF and it is still a IF the Rice nomination is OVER, who will go to State, the rumour mill has 2004 Democratic Nominee Senator Kerry as the front runner, ADVICE to Oval find someone else, a Kerry run State Department will be run by Kerry, it will be hard for POTUS to get Kerry to do his bidding, a War hero, but also anti Vietnam protest leader, Lt Governor, Senator and 2004 Dem nominee, lets be honest Kerry will be a nightmare, he will think he should be in the Oval.   If this blog was the Oval it would find someone who does not have his or her own political base and will follow the orders of the Oval but is a good thinker, thus can allow the Oval new thoughts and new directions.   Lets see how this plays out folks. 

Obama's State - Ohio - 2012 US Election

RCP: Reports on its average of Ohio State Polls, today we see President Obama leading Governor Romney by 49.6% to 46.6%, a lead of 3%. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks POTUS has either been tied or leading in Ohio, Romney needed Ohio to WIN, that is not going to happen folks, he would have to flip a big BLUE State to win, this blog does not see that with the Obama ground game and Union support.   In many respects this is 2004 all over again, Bush 43 won a 2nd term by taking Ohio, this blog expects the same result in 2012 for Obama.   The bailout of the car industry was a smart political move by the Obama Team, this policy gives Obama four more years.   That is politics folks. 

The Last Polls - 2012 US Election

Lets have a look at the last tracking polls folks of likely voters, lets see who will be shown to be right and who needs to resit their Pollster Exam:

Gallup: In their last poll pre election eve, we see Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 48%, a 1% lead. 

Rasmussen Reports: In their last poll pre election even, we see Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 48%, a 1% lead. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have a tied race, this looks like 2000 all over again, months of Court cases could be ahead, perfect for this blogger.  But to be realistic, once POTUS takes Ohio its all over, with the exception of Romney taking Pennsylvania, then it could be a new ball game.  This blog has doubts that Romney really has a chance, Pennsylvania on the whole is a BLUE State.  It sems that the Ohio result should come through 12.30am UK Time, thus it should not be that long a night.   Make sure if your up to have plenty of Tea around, it could be a long time, that is the fun of politics. 

The Closing Stages - 2012 US Election

Guardian: Reports the following from the US Election, " Influential New York Times election blogger Nate Silver put Obama's current chances of winning at around 80%. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The blog on the whole does not agree with the uber liberal NYT when it comes to most things, but on this occasion their blogger is right, Romney was no Reagan, this year was not 1980 again!  In many ways this a repeat of 2004 when Bush 43 beat Senator Kerry by winning the State of Ohio.    For Republicans it is time to start looking at 2016, never to early folks, one has to say that the front runners are Governor Christie of NJ and Rep. Ryan.   The US election cycle never ends folks. 

The Polls - 2012 US Election

BBC News: Reports on the average of the latest polls in the US Presidential Election, the latest is a tied race, both President Obama and Governor Romney on 49%.

Lets Get Real:

Honesty is the best policy folks, this blog is looking for a 2000 or 2004 type race, in 2004 it was down to Ohio, as it could be this year, as of now one would have to give Ohio to POTUS, nearly all the polls have him tied or leading in the State.   On the other hand, if its really close race we could see Court Cases as in 2000, even the US Supreme Court coming in to play, that would be fun.   This blog has called the race for Obama, the fun for this blog as stated is looking at the final result and which Pollster got it right.    Lets hope this is not 1948, a lot of us would have big egg on our faces, voters do not to that, it would show that you have been laying through your back teeth or ALL pollsters are bent.   That is the fun of politics folks.