Obama Administration Part One

Telegraph: Has a follow up article on a interview that Senator Obama has given to the Rolling Stone Magazine. In the article Obama admits that his Administration will have tough choices, and people are not going to be happy. As stated Obama is a smart operator, his biggest problem will be the Democratic Congress, they will want to spend like its Xmas. If Obama wants to win a second term he needs to make sure that he gets his tax cut and also is seen to support the middle class. If the Democratic Congress takes the Obama Administration to left wing, the following will happen, the Democrats will lose Congress and and Obama will be one term President. Lets be honest folks this what makes politics fun.

The Reagan Era ?

National Journal: An article that looks at the prospect of a Democratic Landslide in November, the Presidency and the House and Senate. Is this like the Reagan victory in 1980 a turning point, a return to the Great Society mode of the 60s. The article asks a very interesting question, " If Obama wins, the threshold question he'll face in devising his governing strategy will be whether his election represents a triumph over just McCain and Bush -- or the conquest of Reagan, too. " Obama comes across as a smart operator, also he has said some kind things about the Reagan Era if not the policies, thus his real problem will be the Liberals in Congress, who might miss read the results as some return to the Big Government, High Taxes of the 60s and 70s. What Obama does not want to happen is that he ends up a one term President, that would almost be as bad as losing now. Thus it can be postulated that Obama will have to keep the Congress at arms length, he might have to run against them four years later, if after four years taxes, inflation and unemployment is up, the folks will blame Obama, thus it can be argued that Obama needs to make sure he that he gets his tax cuts and that the Congress does not blind side him with sharp tax raises, makes him have a weak Foreign Policy and tries to micro manage Iraq and Afghanistan. Obama if he is not careful could become the next Jimmy Carter not Ronald Reagan and in thirty years time they will not be discussing the Obama Era.

Weekend Polls

Lets have a look at some of the Polls folks.

Gallup: Likely Voters: This Poll of three different outcomes, has a very close race, Obama 49% - McCain 47%. If this was the state of the race before November Vote then it could be postulated that McCain would win the Presidency. This would take in to consideration what happened in New Hampshire, Obama was well ahead in double digits but still lost to Hillary Clinton. But Gallup has three different versions of this Poll, lets look at the Likely Voters that includes first time voters and those from a ethnic minority. As Obama is a rock star in these groups, Gallup has the following result, Obama 51% - McCain 45%. Its getting over that 50% that counts at the end of the day, Bill Clinton never got over 50% in either Presidential Election. Thus with the rock star status of Obama it could be argued that the expanded likely voter is closer to the truth. On another matter, saw McCain and Obama at a Charity Dinner last night, McCain was better on the humour, when Obama gets elected he needs to hire the writers for McCain, humour is not a Obama strong point.

Rasmussen: Reports that Obama has a four point lead, if one takes in to consideration Gallup LV1, in which Obama has a two point lead and the Rasmussen Poll that has four points then Obama is ahead at about three points. The Rasmussen Poll found the following, Obama 50% - McCain 46%. The academic fun of election night will be to see who gets right with a few percent points, it helps to see who is on the ball. Also it will help the pollsters, they will now know which questions to ask to see if the voters are telling them the truth.

IBD/TIPP: Reports a very close race, Obama 45% - McCain 42%. It has been noted by IBD and others that this poll was very close to the actual result in 2004. An interesting figure is those that state they haven't made their mind up yet, that stands at whopping 13%. Lets postulate that these voters are going to vote for Senator McCain but don't want to tell the pollster why, one could guess, one reason being the Bradley Effect just for some but one reason. Lets see if that 13% make their mind up before November 4th. Also lets see the prediction before the election.*

* The Latest IBD/TIPP: This shows that Obama has a five percent lead ( if you round the percent up ) The New Poll finds the following, Obama 46% - McCain 41%. What is interesting is that those that have not made their mind up stands at 14%. One should never make a prediction but one could postulate a Obama win in the following manner, Obama 53% - McCain 47%. This if it happened would be a lot closer but the six percent win would fall in to the average of the polls.

The RCP average of the Polls is Obama 6.9% ahead of McCain.

Mr Joe and Obama

A hard hitting Ad by McCain that uses the words of Obama against him. That Spread the Wealth comment could cost him a few points on election day. Thank God for Mr Joe the Plumber.