Obama's State - Ohio - 2012 Race

RCP: Reports on its average of the State polls in Ohio, as of today President Obama leads Governor Romney by 48.1% to 46.0%, a lead of 2.1%. 

Lets Get Real:

Ohio is President Obama's firewall, he needs to protect his narrow lead there at all costs, thus money and constant visits by Obama and his team, even VP Biden.   As election day closes expect multi millions to be spent on TV adverts and getting the election ground game up for the day.   Every night the Obama Chicago team should be only thinking about OHIO, OHIO and OHIO.   If Obama wins Ohio he wins a 2nd term, as did Bush 43 in 2004 against Senator Kerry.   The poor people of Ohio are going to get fed up of the political process before election day. 

A Tied Race - 2012 Race

Telegraph: Reports on a new NBC News/WSJ Poll that have both President Obama and Governor Romney tied at 47%, the article notes the following, " Mr Romney closed a three-point lead held by the president in the survey before their first debate. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

The race was always getting to get closer folks, the big Obama leads would narrow after the Presidential debates, as long as POTUS keeps Ohio and does not lose Ohio he WINS.   Although as the article notes the Obama lead in Ohio has fallen to 1%, in other words a neck and neck race.  The bright spot in the article for the Obama team is the early voting that favours the President and the excellent ground game of the Democrats and their allies the Unions.   It is going to be  long election night folks, in the vain of 2000 and 2004, keep that coffee hot folks. 

US and Iran - 2012 Race

BBC News:  Reports that the Obama White House had denied that Iran has agreed to one to one talks with the US.  

Lets Get Real:

If this story was leaked by someone who was trying to help President Obama it was a BIG MISTAKE.   The Republicans have already given the impression that Obama is a appeaser when it comes to Iran, the last thing POTUS needs is the impression that he is selling out Israel, from TV reports it seems that Israel was not aware of these secret talks.   One has to assume that the Israeli Intelligence, the Mossad knew, they tend to know what is going in the Middle East before the West.   One can postulate that Governor Romney will bring this issue up in the final debate, Obama has to careful, if he sounds to liberal he losses Florida and its Jewish voters.  If to hawkish on Iran he losses his liberal base.  Thus its a tricky subject for the Oval.  Lets get honest here folks, all Presidents, even the great Reagan had major Foreign Policy disasters when it comes to Iran.    The biggest was Jimmy Carter and the holding of US Diplomats as hostages for 444 days.   Thus a US President should keep on the Israeli page and keep Iran at a very far distance.   It never helps the Oval to get in to bed with Tehran. 

Romney 7% Lead over Obama - Gallup

Gallup ( LV ): Reports today that Governor Romney leads President Obama by 52% to 45%, a 7% lead.

Lets Get Real:

If your a Republican your happy, if your a Democrat you get worried, this is national poll, as long as POTUS keeps Ohio, and does not lose some big blue States then he will get a 2nd term.  Also we have the final Presidential Debate on Monday, that is Tuesday morning in the UK.   One would assume that the Obama team will have a clear story when it comes to Libya and Iran.    POTUS won on points in the 2nd debate, in this final debate he has to win BIG.   The President can not afford to have a bad debate as like his 1st, if that was to happen then even this blog would have serious doubts about 2nd Obama term.