The Cold War lasted from the end of the Second World War to 1991. Between 1991 and 2001 we had the Post Cold War period and now we have after 9/11. It can be noted that during the first two periods we didn’t know how long they would last and how they would finish. We thought that with the end of the Cold war we would could diminish the funding for defence and the world would became more democratic and Liberal. I recall debates about how we would spend the money we wouldn’t have to spend on defence, those days seem almost like a dream. Since the 1990s we in the UK and America seem to be active in more war zones that we did through the Cold War Period, the exception being Vietnam for the USA and the Falklands for the UK.
Then One Morning the world changed, I changed the channel on my TV and I saw an airplane hit a tall building, at first I thought it was a film, it took me a few seconds to realise it was real and it was happening in real time. The World had changed; it was like 1914 again a single shot that starts a War and then the death of innocent people, the total in the thousands. We all have images from that day; it was like a Nightmare that lasted for Hours. Over three thousand dead in one day.
So we are in 2006, the USA and the UK are in Iraq and Afghanistan, the USA has lost over 2500 and UK over 100. The question is what next and how long and what will be the end result. Thus we come to my prediction, and for the next few years.
There have been reports that the American Army wants to reduce it troops my September of this year, I argue this will happen for a short period, the Mid Term Congressional Elections are coming, so the troops will come home for a period, the new government in Iraq will have to get its security up and running to cover the loss of American troops. The government will do this by making deals and granting Amnesty to those in Iraq that have been fighting the Allies. The USA and the UK will go along with this; President Bush and Prime Minister Tony Blair want Iraq off the news for different reasons. The President wants to keep the Republicans in control of Congress and Tony Blair wants Iraq off the news when he does leave Office.
As I said it will be for a short period, the troop levels with be cut but then they will be gradual increased to deal with the problems in Iraq and also should the case come up to deal with Iran. As for the future of Iraq, after a time they will find another leader who the West will support but who will not be a Western Democrat.
As I leave my first Blog, I am reminded of the start of the 20th Century, an Empire at War, a war that was not popular with an enemy that didn’t fight fair, we wore red they didn’t. We won but not in a way that could be described with much honour, we followed the Spanish and created Concentration Camps and starved the Boers out. We have moved on, the War in Iraq was right thing to do, that today is a very minority opinion but after 9/11 we could not be seen as weak that was the mistake in the Post Cold War Period.
