Wednesday, October 25, 2006

A Hung Parliament, Sorry Hung House of Representatives

An interesting article by Michael Barone today, he writes the following, ‘ My predictions would produce an almost evenly divided House: 219 Democrats, a net gain of 16, and 216 Republicans. ’ As this would very slim majority, and VIEWS recalls the Majority of around 21 John Major had in 1992, that went fast one way or another. Thus a massive shift would become a day-to-day battle to gain a majority for new ideas to get passed. As the Speaker Nancy Pelosi, would have to balance the demands of the far left on the Democratic side of the Party with the voting power of those on the conservative side of the Party, they do still have some. As with the lose of votes over the two years, it could place President George W. Bush in a very interesting position. Speaker Pelosi might need President Bush more than George W. Bush needs a helpful Speaker. The Democrats if this prediction came true would not have the majority to overrule a Presidential Veto, thus if they wanted to get anything done and have a chance of keeping a majority they would have to work with the White House, that’s why Democracy is interesting if not perfect.

Some new Senate Polls, have come out, Tennessee, Bob Corker (R) is at 49% compared to 44% for Harold Ford ( D ) RCP average is Corker up by 3%. In Missouri, two Polls have Jim Talent ( R ) up by 3% , they both place Jim Talent at 48% and his Democratic Opponent, Claire McCaskill at 45% , the RCP average is Talent up by 1% . In Virginia we have two different Polls, one has George Allan ( R ) up by 4% over his Democratic Opponent James Webb, but another Poll has Webb ahead of Allen by 3%. The RCP average has Allen ahead by 1.8%. RCP has the Democrats taking four seats in the Senate; they are two short for control of the Senate.