Friday, May 03, 2019

Does Jeremy Corbyn want a BREXIT DEAL ? - Brexit Update 1 - NO BREXIT


Lets Get Real:

The above is the sanest thing Jeremy Corbyn has EVER said, the question is will he do a deal with PM May so we can get BREXIT over the line and we can go back to ordinary politics, a time BEFORE BREXIT.   The next few days will be interesting, the Conservatives lost over a thousand council seats and the Labour Party did not gain any, that must be historic.   Both May and Corbyn need a deal, for May it is a matter of legacy, for Corbyn it allow him to talk about policies he actually cares about.   Will those HARD REMAIN MPs and HARD BREXIT MPs finally see the light and smell the coffee as the old saying goes, will they move, will any deal between May and Corbyn get through the House of Commons, the weekend reading of the papers should be interesting. 

HRC cost Obama his LEGACY - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

The only President to have served two terms and to see the nominee of his Party win in a 152 years was Ronald Reagan, the Gipper could hand over to Bush 41, his Vice - President, and this in many respects and the fact that the Berlin Wall came down in 1989, few months after Reagan left office and then the fall of the USSR placed Reagan in the league of GREAT American Presidents.   The very FACT that President Obama thought that HRC would of course naturally win, shows how touch a President can come after serving two terms as President.  When your staff say your great ALL THE TIME, it can mess with your head, and President Obama's great black hair went white after serving two terms, Reagan hair was still black and he was in his late 70s.   The Gipper showed that the Presidency can not be a burden, if you have the right character for the job.  It can be argued that Bill Clinton looked great after serving 8 years, and he had deal with the fact that he took over from Bush 41 and his successor was Bush 43.  In the late 1960s, LBJ's greatest fear was that he would be seen as the President between the Kennedy's, that being JFK and RFK.   In many respects Obama allowed the pressure to get to him, well at least his hair, Jimmy Carter really aged in Office, 1977-81.  It can be argued that he faced some of the greatest challenges of any President. 

Trump keeps on message, its Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - Election 2020


Lets Get Real:

In his winning two terms President Clinton never got over 50% of the vote, in 1996 he got 49% and that was with a great economy.  The important numbers are the State polls, they will tell the tale of the election, that is why Joe Biden is looking good at the moment, he is seen as having the ability to win those States that Trump won 2016.  But as this blog has stated, its early May 2019, the Democratic Presidential Debates have not happened yet, and the US faces 20 Presidential candidates.   They will want to go after the Biden polls numbers, they have to SHINE, they have to show that they can win, and that Biden is an easy target for Trump and his tweets.  I expect Mayor Pete and Beto ( great brand names to sell, if I just said Joe, you would be wondering for a second who I was talking about, thus brand is important ) to do well in the DEBATES if they really want to challenge Biden, of course this will be their first time on the national stage, will they shine or go supernova and show that they are not ready for prime time.   On the issues one expects Senator Warren to being a box of them, the question is can she sell her herself, ( her voice does drone after a bit, eight years, not sure the US voter is ready for that ).   Let's see if Senator Kamala Harris can stop pandering, she has to show her tough side, she was a prosecutor, the US will not vote for a WEAK WOMAN for POTUS. 

Great Unemployment Figures from the US - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

The best unemployment news in nearly 50 years, the Trump Campaign for 2020 and POTUS should be shouting this from the rooftop, the Trump Oval has to keep on message, it is the economic stupid ( Bill Clinton theme in 1992 ).   The President has to keep to the simple message, that the US is at peace, no big wars, and the economy is booming.  If POTUS keeps to this message he will WIN BIG in 2020, even 49 States as Reagan did in 1984.  If the President goes off message he could hand the Oval Office over to former VP Joe Biden, a politician that Reagan had no time for at all, as stated in his diaries.   The Democrats will try to make 2020 about the character of Trump, the Trump Oval should keep it about basic economic news, are you better off now that you were four years ago ( Reagan theme in 1980, 1984 ).  Let's see how good Trump can be on keeping on MESSAGE, it is simple and should be stated ALL THE TIME, It is the economy stupid and it is going GREAT.