Blue Dog Democrats and Re-Election in 2010

CNN News: Reports on Blue Dog Democrats and their prospects for re-election in 2012. In pure political terms the Conservative Democrats face a problem, in 2006 and 2008 they had Bush 43 to run against, he was not that popular even with Republicans. This time they have a Democratic President, House and Senate, but worse for these Democrats, you have Liberals at the head of all three, Liberals who like to spend the money of the US tax payer to pander to their base support. The base support is of course Liberals, in Conservative Districts the reverse is true, Ronald Reagan is seen as the ideal President, low taxes, small Government and a big defence. It can be argued that Obama would get a negative mark on the first two, low taxes and small government. Thus his economic package and health care reform is causing a massive headache for these Blue Dog Democrats, at the end of the day they will have to decide do they want to get re-elected, in 1994 a lot of Democrats supported Hillary Care and what did it get them, they lost their seats and Democrats lost Congress, thus if the Blue Dog Democrats want to remain the House they need to keep together and stall this Bill, at the end of the day its down the Senate, if the Republicans can keep together and a few Conservative Democrats join them they can defeat this Health Care Bill, it will be fun fight in Congress this year.

Iran HOLDING US Citizens

BBC News: Reports that Iran is holding three US citizens who are called being called holiday makers, it seems they might have crossed in Iran due to being on the border between Iraq and Iran. I know the Bush surge has calmed the violence in Iraq but it would not be my first choice for an August getaway any time in the near future. Also it causes problems for the Obama Administration, it now has a regime that has stolen an election, its smashing up protests, it has also killed its own people. The Government of Iran will use any spin to blame the unrest on the West and what happens a couple of US Citizens take a holiday on the border between Iraq and Iran. Lets recall what happened to two US reporters, twelve years hard labour in North Korea when they might have crossed the border in to North Korea. Also one has to think this might be a strategic move by Iran, take some American hostages, force Obama to talk to the regime, keep the talks going on and on. I think you get the idea, the Government in Tehran needs to focus the attention of the people abroad, what better than to place three Americans on trial. This would help the Government of Iran inside Iran, place Obama on the back foot, the American voter will not put up with another Jimmy Carter. Thus lets see what happens over the next couple hours and days, lets hope the holiday makers did not come from the US Special Forces, if so Obama would have to get them out, and if the Government of Iran stall this would end any chance of talks between President Obama and Iran.

US Military vs President Obama

The Times: Reports that US Military in Afghanistan is heading for confrontation with the Obama White House, the US Military Chief in Afghanistan, General Stanley McChrystal will ask for more troops, this runs counter to the strategic view in the Obama West Wing. This is the War Obama wanted to fight, this is his Just War, know comes the hard part, can he say NO to more troops for Afghanistan, well the simple answer is yes but of course it always more complicated than that, Obama although the 08 Campaign said that Bush 43 has taken his eye off the ball when it came to Afghanistan, well Afghanistan is now his problem. Also he has to worry about Liberal Democrats in Congress who want out of Afghanistan, he can not afford to give them political reasons to pull the plug on Afghanistan, thus he will have to send more troops, its his surge, this month alone the USA has lost 42 of its Armed Forces Personnel, the highest loss since the War started in 2001, thus this is now Obama's War. The question is will Afghanistan turn in to Vietnam, and will the it have the same effect, the Presidency of LBJ was destroyed by Vietnam, can you see Obama not running in 2012 because the War in Afghanistan has become his Vietnam, also Vietnam destroyed the Great Society of LBJ, will Afghanistan destroy the Domestic Programme of President Obama.

The US Missile Shield vs North Korea

The Daily Mail: Reports on the successful test of the US Missile Defence Shield, a ship-based missile intercepted a test missile from the Pacific. This sends a clear message to the Communist North Korea, that it is pointless to play poker with the USA when it comes to creating the perception of a threat from North Korea to the USA via an ICBM strike. The USA has the ace, it can intercept any threat from North Korea, and any strike on the USA by North Korea would lead to the elimination of North Korea as a state. The real threat is to South Korea, it can be argued that the USA should support the South in its development of a nuclear missile programme. This would null and void the threat from North Korea, drive China bonkers, and create an Asian MAD security structure to calm the nerves of the region.