Threat to UK and USA from Iran

Telegraph: Reports that Iran has threatened to take military action against the UK and the USA for the recent terrorist attack in Iran. One word folks, RUBBISH, keep steady its not going happen, Iran will not do a overt attack on either the USA or the UK interests, its simple, such attack and Obama would have to take action, he could not dither as he is over Afghanistan, covert action is something else, the Government of Iran has shown that it is a totalitarian regime that is afraid of its people. Thus the recent development that the Government in Tehran will use the recent attack to reverse itself over its agreement with the UN and the West to hand over its nuclear materials, they will play up the Western threat to Iran, this will leave the Obama policy towards Iran in the cold, and thus again we are back to Israel.

Second Election in Afghanistan ?

The Times: Reports that President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan will not allow himself to be pressured by the US or the UN to have a second Presidential Election. In pure political terms Karzai has the aces of all cards, he can ask the USA to leave Afghanistan, this would place Obama right in the LBJ nightmare of Vietnam. On the one side Obama could be pleased if Karzai did ask him to leave, the one problem is that he cant in real terms, this would be seen as a massive defeat for the USA and President Obama. If and this is a big IF, this argument developed in to reality, Obama would have to replace Karzai with a President that would support the USA in Afghanistan. The reason is two fold, in the 2008 Presidential Election in the USA, Afghanistan was the Just War that Obama wanted to fight, well its his war now, also if Obama was to lose Afghanistan this could lead to the loss of Pakistan. Lets recall Pakistan is a nuclear armed power, in other words Obama is stuck in Afghanistan no matter the views of VP Biden. In 1963 the Kennedy Administration sent out the infamous August Telegram that allowed for the removal of Diem of South Vietnam, after that coup Vietnam was Americana's War. Thus if Obama removes Karzai he will be acting like the old British Empire, that didn't end well either for the UK. Also one has a contradiction within the Obama Administration, Secretary Clinton gave the impression that the USA had accepted that Karzai would remain President of Afghanistan. Also beyond the politics we have the weather, its getting time for the snows to come in, thus the fighting will quite down, its a Afghan tradition, fighting happens in the summer months. Thus political and natural conditions might prevent any Obama policy on Afghanistan does not have the OK of Karzai.

DITHERING President Obama

The New York Times: Reports that the Obama Administration will delay making a decision about Afghanistan till there is a clear winner, the NYT writes the following, " until the disputed election there had been settled and resulted in a government that could work with the United States. " This is why Iran is walking back from its agreement to send its nuclear material out of the country, the see Obama as weak, a President who will dither about the security of his own troops, will take a Nobel Peace Prize for doing nothing, in other words the Windy City of Chicago has produced an empty suit with TV skills. In Afghanistan the Taliban will see that all they have to do is wait out Obama, your either a strong or weak President in their eyes, the Taliban don't go for a Third way. Thus the security of the West is in the hands of another Neville Chamberlain, and we all know what the result of that was, World War Two, of course Obama could learn after he is burned by Iran, and Israel destroys the nuclear facilities of Iran, one can postulate that Iran will hit Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, then Obama must show his tough side, its easy to bully Fox News, let see if he has the backbone to take on Iran, if not an ancient civilisation the Mayans did say that the world would end in 2012, the year of the Obama re-election. On the side after the disaster that was the Carter Presidency we did get Ronald Reagan, thus Obama is following the road to be a disaster as President, thus all the Republicans have to do is get the political Son or Daughter of Reagan to run in 2012 and win against Obama and clear up his mistakes.

Prediction was RIGHT about Iran

BBC News: Reports that Iran could withdraw from its agreement to transfer its nuclear material out of Iran. The terrorists attack in Iran has given Iran a good way to withdraw co - operation from the UN and the West on its nuclear plans. It can be argued that the Obama Administration was thinking ahead, thus the visit of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to Moscow to seek co - operation over sanctions for Iran. The question now is what will President Obama do, he has Iran who after his dithering over Afghanistan see him as straw man, man with no backbone, thus this move to keep their nuclear material, lets recall Iran shares a border with Afghanistan and could cause massive problems for the Obama Administration in Afghanistan in this crunch time for the Obama policy towards Afghanistan. Also Israel has given President Obama a deadline of the end of the year to solve the Iran problem or they will, and if Israel takes action over Iran, it will be Obama who will face the military consequences, Iran could hit, Iraq, Afghanistan and close down oil from region. Thus Afghanistan and Iran could very well define the Obama Presidency over the next few weeks, it could decide if Obama gets re-elected in 2012.