Strategic Thinking by Obama Administration over Iran

New York Times: Reports that USA thinks that Iran has enough nuclear material to create a bomb. The Times reports that the USA will place pressure on Russia to help prevent Iran becoming a nuclear power, in return the USA will deal with the Russian concern about US Missile Defences in Eastern Europe. The question will this strategic thinking work, the answer is no, Iran wants to join the nuclear club, it knows that it will get respect from the West if its a nuclear power, the USA will be timid in trying to remove the regime. In some respects it does not matter what the Obama Administration wants, if Israel thinks that Iran is a threat to its survival it will take out the nuclear plants in Iran. The Obama Administration must get its head around that thought, thus one can expect that Israel will hit Iran, Iran will attack Iraq and the USA will be in Iraq for many years. The Middle East in a mine field at the best of the times, a nuclear armed Iran makes it a lot worse, thus expect some action between Israel and Iran before the end of 2010. I was wrong last year in thinking Israel would attack before Bush Administration came to end but that was before the latest developments, thus the tinder box that is the Middle East will be one of the top issues for Obama.

Is Afghanistan turning in to Diem's Vietnam ?

Telegraph: Reports that President Hamid Karzai of Afghanistan is trying to bounce the USA in to an early election in Afghanistan. The early election would be fraught due to the military and weather conditions. As with Diem it seems President Karzai is not listening to Washington D.C, a election now would be fraught between attacks by the Taliban/Terrorists and the severe weather conditions in country. It seems from the Telegraph report that President Karazi want to keep on to power till the election, his term ends before the suppose new election. Why it can be asked does Karazi want to stay in power, if he was no longer President he would become an open target, one has to see his narrow point. At the moment Karazi is protected by the USA Special Forces, would the USA still give him protection if he was no longer President. The new Obama Administration has a low opinion of the Karazi Government, its lack of reform of Afghanistan is a major issue in D.C. So to the question, as Diem would not listen to D.C, the powers that be in D.C gave the green light to remove Diem, will Obama allow President Karazi to be removed, whats in the best interest of the West might not be in the interest of President Karazi. At the end of the day the removal of Diem in Vientam was a disaster, thus better to keep the Devil you know, because the next leader could be worse.

" No Decision Either Way on North Korea " - Mullen

Fox News: Reports on the comments of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Admiral Mike Mullen, the Admiral stated that the Obama Administration had not made a decision on how to respond should North Korea launch a long range test missile that can reach the USA. The Admiral was on CNN also, thus the above comment by Mullen, he stated the same thing, but I would be very surprised if there are not standing orders should North Korea launch a missile that reaches the USA. If launched this would be a game changer in the region, Japan would be on the phone asking for Nuclear Missiles for its protection. I don't think China would like it either, North Korea would be even more stubborn, also it would show that China was weak that it could not control one of its closes satellites. The USA would think that the leaders in China had lost the leadership of the region if they could not control North Korea. If China wants to be taken as a World Leader it should take action in North Korea, one communist country to another, prevent a launch of this missile, the West would be very grateful.

Praise from WP for President Obama

Washington Post: Has praise for President Obama for his Iraqi Plan. The WP states the following, " Though he opposed the war, his strategy recognizes what has been achieved in Iraq, even at a terrible cost, and aims at preserving it. His party would do well to follow his lead." The President has followed a wise policy, it allows the USA to leave Iraq with honour but also allows the USA to protect its interest in the Middle East. Liberals in Congress have no sense of long term policy, they just want to pander to their pay masters in Liberal Pressure groups. Thank God President Obama does not have to worry about the House Speaker or other Liberals. The Republicans will support the move, also wise Liberal Papers think its a good idea. Thus lets hope the Liberal New York Times comes out against the plan, President Obama will then know that its a good plan.

Gates on Obama's Iraq Plan

The New York Times: The US Defence Secretary Robert Gates explains the strategic reason for keeping between thirty five and fifty thousand troops in country, as this will help with the Bush/Obama plan to get the US out of Iraq by 2011. I will bet that the Obama Administration will do a deal with Iraq to keep forces in country after 2011, just a feeling, Obama cant afford in an election year for Iraq to blow up as it did in 2006/07. As 2012 is a Presidential Election year, Obama does not want to run with civic strife in Iraq, and the need the send the troops back in or worse that Iran moves in to Iraq to place pressure on the USA to accept a Nuclear Armed Iran. Iraq one way or another will become Obama's War, he is trying to be Richard Nixon, getting out at least political cost, Nixon in Vietnam, Obama in Iraq. In 2010 we have the Congressional Mid Term Elections, Obama will have good news coverage of the troops coming home as heroes but the War will not be over, there will still be fifty thousand troops in Iraq. Folks this story is not over by a long way.

No Exit in 2009

Fox News: Reports that a majority of US troops will still be in Iraq at the end of 2009. The withdrawal of US troops will really start in 2010. This is a wise move by the Obama Administration, it will allow the Iraqi people to have a secure elections at the end of the year, also over the year the USA can plan a gradual withdrawal of its troops, no helicopters on the Embassy aka Vietnam in 1975. There is a deadline now for the Iraqi Army and Police to get in to shape, but just case President Obama is keeping around fifty thousand troops in country. Iraq at the end of the day could be a plus for the Obama Administration. Bush 43 should not expect any thanks from Obama.

Iran Missile Threat via Afghanistan to UK Aircraft

The Times: Reports that Iran is giving Missiles to the Taliban/Terrorists that can shoot down UK Aircraft. The Foreign Office should have a quiet word with Iran, any of this rubbish and the SAS will be sent in to show what real had edge covert action is, if Iran is caught red handed with supporting the Taliban/Terrorists, the SAS should start our own Operation Mongoose II, as the Kennedy Administration wanted to destroy Cuba from within during the Cold War, the UK and the USA should warn Iran we can show them what real terror is if pushed, lets not play about with Iran, lets send a clear message, any attack on USA or UK troops will invite a Executive Action in Iran. Read of the Day.

Is the UK wanted in Afghanistan ?

The Times: Reports that the US military sees the UK as a failure in Afghanistan, the UK leaves it bases fights the Taliban/Terrorists, wins the fight but then leaves the won area. The Taliban/Terrorists come back, not a great military strategy. If the USA think they can do a better job let the USA take over all the fighting in Afghanistan, we have fought and bleed and for what, this stabbing in the back from our suppose Allies. Lets take UK forces out of Afghanistan as we are taking our forces out of Iraq, let Afghanistan become Obama's War, as Iraq will become his War in time. Afghanistan to quote the old line is the Graveyard of Empires, the British Empire had a bloody nose, the old Soviet Union had a bloody nose, in fact the War in Afghanistan helped in the fall of the USSR. On the other hand if we are going to stay in country we have to send more troops, we have to send better equipment, we cant win on the cheap, even withe the present recession/depression we have to fund the War in Afghanistan. In reporting from the area one gets the impression that we are back in World War One, Trenches, Bad Equipment, lets win folks if we are staying, our troops deserve the best, they don't need this negative review from our American cousins. lets face it they took their time in World War One and World War Two.