The US and the Minsk Agreement - New Cold Wart 2

The White House: Statement by the White House Press Secretary on the Minsk Agreement, " The United States welcomes the agreement reached today in Minsk by the OSCE-led Trilateral Contact Group, which was endorsed by the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany, and France.  The agreement represents a potentially significant step toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict and the restoration of Ukraine’s sovereignty consistent with the Minsk agreements from last September.  We especially appreciate the tireless efforts of German Chancellor Merkel and French President Hollande to reach this new accord.  We call on all parties to carry out the commitments undertaken in today’s accord and the September agreements fully and without delay.  This agreement must now be followed by immediate, concrete steps to fulfill the commitments by all parties.  The cease-fire must be implemented and honored.  Heavy weapons must be withdrawn from the conflict zone, and Russia must end its support for the separatists and withdraw its soldiers and military equipment from eastern Ukraine.  The true test of today’s accord will be in its full and unambiguous implementation, including the durable end of hostilities and the restoration of Ukrainian control over its border with Russia.  The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord.  "

Lets Get Real:

The important part of the statement is the following, " The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord. "  One can expect that NATO will be keeping an eye on Russia action, do they withdraw their troops and heavy weapons, do the sides keep to their agreements.   This is not a done deal, the last one failed within days, lets see if this was a real attempt at a deal or just PR stunt by the the Russians.    The Russian bear when it has its nose in something is very hard to get away, just ask Eastern Europe. 

Germany and Greece - The Greek Money Crisis

Telegraph - Live Blog: Reports in its 3.33post the following comments by Chancellor Merkel, " Europe is always geared to compromise. Germany is ready for that. Nevertheless one has to say that Europe's credibility is based on sticking to the rules and that we are reliable," she told reporters in Brussels. "Now we will look which proposals Greece will make. Finance ministers will talk about it next Monday, we still have some days time."

Lets Get Real:

Either Germany or Greece blinks, if Germany blinks it will see the EU start to print money, sooner or later you get inflation and we will see the economic problems of Germany in the 1920 imposed on a larger area.    The Germany taxpayer is not going to pay for the political promises of Greece, if Germany allows this the left wing parties in Italy and France will offer the same deal, the Germans will pay for the political promises of other Countries, one would expect that the Germans would not be happy and they might turn to extreme Parties, yes people leaders never learn.   Berlin has to be tough, even if that means Greece leaving the Euro, it will be painful but its better than a compromise that leads to an economic disaster.   Time for Germany to take its place as a economic and military power. 

Ukraine Latest Part 2 - The New Cold War 2

Guardian: Reports " In the short term, the Franco-German duo appears to have stopped the fighting – for now, at least – prevented further escalation, headed off US pressure to supply arms to Kiev, and dragged the recalcitrant Putin back onboard. Europe can breathe a brief sigh of relief.  But the Minsk achievement looks fragile in the extreme...."

Lets Get Real:

The thought that France and Germany solves a military problem will go down like a tone of bricks in Russia, one only has to look how far Russia is fallen, it has to agree terms from Germany and France, memories of World War 2 are still fresh in the Russian mind.  At one level it must be major humiliation for Putin,  once the might USSR being told what to do BY all people the Germans and Berlin.   Of course at the article notes the deal is fragile, it might never happen, will all parties agree to its conditions, will Russian troops leave East Ukraine, NATO will be looking, will the Eastern part of the Ukraine be given home rule from Kiev.   This deal is still 50/50, lets see what happens on the ground.  

IS War Resolution - 2nd Term Blues

The White House:  Releases the draft Congressional Resolution to fight IS, here it is full for the historical record, " JOINT RESOLUTION To authorize the limited use of the United States Armed Forces against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. *** Whereas the terrorist organization that has referred to itself as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and various other names (in this resolution referred to as ‘‘ISIL’’) poses a grave threat to the people and territorial integrity of Iraq and Syria, regional stability, and the national security interests of the United States and its allies and partners; Whereas ISIL holds significant territory in Iraq and Syria and has stated its intention to seize more territory and demonstrated the capability to do so; Whereas ISIL leaders have stated that they intend to conduct terrorist attacks internationally, including against the United States, its citizens, and interests; Whereas ISIL has committed despicable acts of violence and mass executions against Muslims, regardless of sect, who do not subscribe to ISIL’s depraved, violent, and oppressive ideology; Whereas ISIL has threatened genocide and committed vicious acts of violence against religious and ethnic minority groups, including Iraqi Christian, Yezidi, and Turkmen populations; Whereas ISIL has targeted innocent women and girls with horrific acts of violence, including abduction, enslavement, torture, rape, and forced marriage; Whereas ISIL is responsible for the deaths of innocent United States citizens, including James Foley, Steven Sotloff, Abdul-Rahman Peter Kassig, and Kayla Mueller; Whereas the United States is working with regional and global allies and partners to degrade and defeat ISIL, to cut off its funding, to stop the flow of foreign fighters to its ranks, and to support local communities as they reject ISIL; Whereas the announcement of the anti-ISIL Coalition on September 5, 2014, during the NATO Summit in Wales, stated that ISIL poses a serious threat and should be countered by a broad international coalition; Whereas the United States calls on its allies and partners, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa, that have not already done so to join and participate in the anti-ISIL Coalition; Whereas the United States has taken military action against ISIL in accordance with its inherent right of individual and collective self-defense;

Whereas President Obama has repeatedly expressed his commitment to working with Congress to pass a bipartisan authorization for the use of military force for the anti-ISIL military campaign; and Whereas President Obama has made clear that in this campaign it is more effective to use our unique capabilities in support of partners on the ground instead of large-scale deployments of U.S. ground forces: Now, therefore, be it Resolved by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, That SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. This joint resolution may be cited as the “Authorization for Use of Military Force against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.” SEC. 2. AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF UNITED STATES ARMED FORCES. (a) AUTHORIZATION.—The President is authorized, subject to the limitatioons in subsection (c), to use the Armed Forces of the United States as the President determines to be necessary and appropriate against ISIL or associated persons or forces as defined in section 5. (b) WAR POWERS RESOLUTION REQUIREMENTS.— (1) SPECIFIC STATUTORY AUTHORIZATION.—Consistent with section 8(a)(1) of the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. 1547(a)(1)), Congress declares that this section is intended to constitute specific statutory authorization within the meaning of section 5(b) of the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. 1544(b)). (2) APPLICABILITY OF OTHER REQUIREMENTS.—Nothing in this resolution supersedes any requirement of the War Powers Resolution (50 U.S.C. 1541 et seq.). (c) LIMITATIONS.— The authority granted in subsection (a) does not authorize the use of the United States Armed Forces in enduring offensive ground combat operations. SEC. 3. DURATION OF THIS AUTHORIZATION. This authorization for the use of military force shall terminate three years aftter the date of the enactment of this joint resolution, unless reauthorized. SEC. 4. REPORTS.

The President shall report to Congress at least once every six months on specific actions takenpursuant to this authorization.SEC. 5. ASSOCIATED PERSONS OR FORCES DEFINED.In this joint resolution, the term ‘‘associated persons or forces’’ means individuals andorganizations fighting for, on behalf of, or alongside ISIL or any closely-related successor entityin hostilities against the United States or its coalition partners.SEC. 6. REPEAL OF AUTHORIZATION FOR USE OF MILITARY FORCE AGAINSTIRAQ.The Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution of 2002 (Public Law 107–243; 116 Stat. 1498; 50 U.S.C. 1541 note) is hereby repealed. "

Lets Get Real:

This draft has already come under attack from liberal Democrats as to broad and from the Republicans as to limiting.   The Democrats fear that this will lead to another Iraq War, while the Republicans think that the Obama Oval does not have a winning strategy when it comes to IS.   The debate in Congress is expected to take a month, lets see how the draft changes from now, the Oval might find it has a tougher resolution and more broad authority, the Democrats will not be happy but the Oval might have no choice, it can hardly veto a resolution that gives it more opitions on the battlefield.   The Debate on the Hill will be hot and all about politics. 

Minsk Peace Deal Again! - The Ukraine Crisis

BBC News: Reports " An agreement aimed at ending the fighting in Ukraine has been reached, following marathon talks in Belarus.  The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France announced that a ceasefire would begin on 15 February. "

Lets Get Real:

This blog gives the agreement a 50/50 chance of lasting, depends on the ground action, if the Russian rebels and military think they can gain more land the fighting will go on, and the Kiev Government in many respects wants the Russians to break the agreement, as this would force President Obama to give arms to the military of the Ukraine, there is a lot of pressure fro the Hill for the US to take tougher action.    On the other and the deal could stick, the Ukraine is not split, good for the Ukraine people, the local Eastern rebels get self rule if not home rule,  the Russians have a finger in the politics of the Ukraine.  The hours and days will tell if the plan will work.