The US Congress and Cuba - 2016 Race

Fox News: Reports the Republican Congressional reaction to the Obama move on Cuba, " Republican lawmakers pushed back strongly Wednesday against President Obama's decision to enact a series of orders meant to normalize relations with Cuba, with some GOP heavy hitters calling it “another concession to tyranny.” "

Lets Get  Real:

Every time someone is arrested in Cuba now when protesting the Castro Government the blame will be placed on the WEAK Oval.   The Oval Office has placed its Foreign Policy at the hands of the Castro brothers.   Obama can only get away with this ONCE, by doing this deal with the Castro brothers he has blocked ANY DEAL WITH IRAN, there is only so much political weight that the Democrats can carry, they do not want to lose the Cuban American vote, or worse the Jewish vote.  As stated the Obama move is BOLD, but it only works if there are followers, the elite liberal press will love this move, but what happens next is important, a leader can lead but if there are no troops behind, it does leave the Oval Office on a edgy cliff.  One blow of wind from Cuba or Iran could taken down the Obama Presidency. 

The Cuban Move, Rubio vs. Obama - 2016 Race

CNN - Politics: Reports the following, " Florida Sen. Marco Rubio on Wednesday outlined plans to protest President Barack Obama's move......The Florida Republican has emerged as one of the fiercest critics of Obama's policy shift toward Cuba,.....And he outlined moves he plans to take in the Senate to stymie the administration's efforts. "

Lets Get Real:

This  move by President Obama when it comes to Cuba could be a spring board for Marco Rubio, a Cuban - American to launch his campaign for 2016.    Unlike the West Wing TV Series the Oval needs the US Congress to lift the sanctions against Cuba, and the new Republican Congress will no doubt block any such moves by the Oval.  If the Oval Office tries to go around the US Congress then the Congress could impeach the President.   When it comes to Cuba and US politics the best policy by any President is to keep at arms length, now Obama owns the Cuba policy, the Republicans and critics will jump on the Oval if there is any repression on Cuba by the Castro brothers.    Historic or a Bad policy by Obama depends on the reader. 

How the Republicans will ATTACK the Obama Cuba Move - 2016 Race

Telegraph: Reports the following, " Republicans vowed to do everything they could to thwart what Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American senator from Florida, called a "dangerous and desperate attempt by the President”.

Mr Obama leaves office in two years' time and a Republican president could decide to reverse his decision. Jeb Bush, the son of George HW Bush and leading Republican contender for the White House, said the US should not "negotiating with a repressive regime". "

Lets Get Real:

It does not matter what you think of Obama's move it is bold, but bold moves are only as good if there is support for them, there is still enough anger in the Cuban - American community for this to become an issue in 2016.  In fact President Obama could have sunk the Democratic nominee in 2016, the Obama Oval has placed a lot of trust in Cuban leadership, what if people protest for democracy and the Castro brothers crack down, the move by the Oval will look WEAK and BAD POLICY.   The Oval Office and its staff have watched to much of the TV's West Wing.   They think they will not pay a political price for this move, when it comes to Cuba there is always a price!  Come on 2016.

Cuba and Florida a MAJOR ISSUE for 2016 - 2016 Race

Guardian - US/Cuba Live: Reports the following in its 7.26 post,  oa Q/A between the White House Press Secretary and the Press, " A reporter asks Earnest about whether the next president could simply undo these actions: close the embassy, restrict travel, etc.

Earnest: “I guess as a legal matter that is true. I suspect however, it’s hard to imagine, that anyone’s going to campaign for this office saying, ‘You know that policy we had in place for five decades and didn’t do anything? We’re going to do that!’”

A reporter shoots back that Jeb Bush has said something along those lines. "

Lets Get Real:

This is a great issue for the Republicans to use in Florida, you can hear the adverts now, dark screen, voice over, Obama THOUGHT he knew better than any President since JFK, the RIGHT WAY for Cuba.  Pictures blurs into picture of the Castro brothers smiling, then image of the Berlin Wall coming down, voice over, ITS THE SAME PRESIDENT WHO SAID YOU CAN KEEP YOUR HEALTH PLAN IF YOU LIKE IT.   IMAGE  of Castro with Obama.  voice over, DO YOU TRUST THESE GUYS. 

The White House: Released President Obama's statement on Cuba, here what this blogger found, " Proudly, the United States has supported democracy and human rights in Cuba through these five decades. We have done so primarily through policies that aimed to isolate the island, preventing the most basic travel and commerce that Americans can enjoy anyplace else.  And though this policy has been rooted in the best of intentions, no other nation joins us in imposing these sanctions, and it has had little effect beyond providing the Cuban government with a rationale for restrictions on its people.  Today, Cuba is still governed by the Castros and the Communist Party that came to power half a century ago.....Now, where we disagree, we will raise those differences directly -– as we will continue to do on issues related to democracy and human rights in Cuba.  But I believe that we can do more to support the Cuban people and promote our values through engagement.  After all, these 50 years have shown that isolation has not worked.  It’s time for a new approach. "

Lets Get Real:

  

Thank goodness President Obama was not President during the Cold War, the Berlin Wall would still be up, the above argument could have been made about Russia during the Cold War,  this looks like a 100% victory for the Castros of Cuba.   The President really does not care if he harms the Democratic brand in 2016, one would not be shocked if Democrats who have a mind to run 2016 and need Florida to win will seek distance between themselves and the Oval Office.   Also lets recall a lot of the Cuban sanctions have a legal framework, IS Obama going to break US Law to get his policy forward.   The Oval Office has watched to much of the left wing West Wing TV series.   

The end of the freeze, Cuba and the US - The Old Cold War

BBC News: Reports " US and Cuba are to start talks to normalise diplomatic ties in a historic shift in relations between the two countries, say US officials. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus President Obama has his West Wing ( TV Series ) moment, the thawing of the relationship between Cuba and the USA.  It can be expected that the US gets nothing out of this deal, while Cuba gets the removal of sanctions AND free access to the US. It's not the end of the Cold War as Reagan had, but after these many decades of icey relationship betweem the two nations there is a chance for understanding.    Lets see how long the Castro Regimes lasts if the Cuban people have free access to US media and see what they are missing out on.    As noted in the Reagan diaries the President looked for thawing in the relationship, its Obama turn to earn his Nobel Peace Price.

Tsarist Russia, USSR, now the fall of Putin's Russia - Greater Russian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following, " Russia risks Soviet-style collapse as rouble defence fails..'What is happening is a nightmare that we could not even have imagined a year ago,' says Russia's central bank "

Lets Get Real:

It would be ironic if President Putin was bought down by the loss of the rouble, thus Nicholas 11 was bought down by World War One and the lack of bread, Gorbachev was bought down when he reacted in a slow manner to the August Coup, is it the fate of the KGB Putin to be bought down by his own ego and bad economic policy.    After the end of the Cold War it was thought that Russia could be bought in to a normal relationship with the West, it didn't work, Russia it seems requires a strong leader, in that they got Putin, but that has lead to the invasion of the Crimea, the support of Russian rebels in East Ukraine, a constant threat to the the Baltic States.   Thus will the Russian Government have to stop Russians taking their money out of Russia, its the next logical step, one gets a feeling that a lot of Russians will be turning up in London.   House prices will go even higher!!  Thanks a lot President Putin. 

Putin's Economic Meltdown - Great Russia under Threat

Guardian: Reports the following on the death cycle of the Russian Rouble, " Rouble crashes to dramatic low amid frantic central bank rate rise..Russians left wondering whether the good times under Vladimir Putin are over as 17% interest rates fail to save the day "

Lets Get Real:

The West would have helped Russia before it took over the Crimea, allowed Russian rebels to shoot down a plane in East Ukraine, now it is in the interest of the West to see Russia go through this economic mess.    The West could make a deal with Putin, he gets out of Crimea and East Ukraine then the West will help the Russian rouble.  Of course there is the chance that Putin will want to shift the focus to the Baltic States, yes an attack on the Baltic States, members of NATO.   It is not new for politicians who are in trouble at home to seek an international crisis, the Russian economy of today is tied to the West, not the case in the time of the USSR.    The Russian economy can bleed, and that is a threat to Putin.  Watch this developing, trouble is ahead. 

Bush for President - 2016 Election

BBC News: Reports the following on the record of Jeb Bush as  Governor of Florida, " During two terms as governor of Florida, he overhauled the state's education system and pushed for substantial tax cuts."

Lets Get Real:

On record Jeb Bush can make a great argument, he reformed education in Florida and made assessment important in education, also he ran a conservative Republican Administration, he helped Bush 43 in winning the election in 2000, the Democrats will bound to bring up that and Iraq, they will try to get Jeb Bush to be critical of Iraq, the candidate should come back with a strong support for his brother and the Bush surge of 2007.   The growth of IS is down to President Obama and his failed policy in Iraq.   The interesting part is the havoc this will cause in the close relationship between Bill Clinton and Bush 41 and Bush 43, it should mean that its a clean race, much chance with the extreme left and righ in the US.   Also this could force Hillary Clinton to run at a more early stage.   This blog is waiting for those 2016 polls.