Syrian Update - PT2

Guardian: Reports the following from Syria, " Rebels say.......that Assad's forces are due to launch a concerted offensive in the capital. ".

Lets Get Real:

As long as the Assad Regime controls Damascus and the airport it will remain in power, as noted the military support from Iran will allow the Regime to have TIME, its ally Iran knows if it loses Assad it influence in the region will be hit, also it can not cause problems for Israel through using its terrorist network in Lebanon.   Thus do the Syrian rebels need air cover from the the US and the UK and was the Western reaction in Libya, the simple answer is YES, the question should the West take such action is another matter, who will replace the regime in Damascus, will they be an ally or a enemy, how much REAL influence will the West have over a new Government, look at how powerless the West has been with the new Egyptian Government.   Thus folks, do you contain the killing in Syria, in other words keep the sides at the same level, if they are killing each other they are not causing problems for the region or do you take action.   The RIGHT answer is you give air cover to the rebels and take your chances with a new government,  at the end of the day innocent people are being killed, you have to save them, or what is the point, might sound bit on the idealist side but sometimes you have to get on that donkey and charge at windmills. 

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports from Syrian rebels of heavy fighting in the Eastern area of Damascus the Capital of Syria. 

Lets Get Real:

This Syrian Civil War can not be allowed to go forever, already Turkey and Israel have have been hit by stray rockets,  as both Turkey and Israel are allies of the US it would take a mistake or a Assad Regime attempt to drag the US in to the Civil War for the Civil War to create a regional War.  If the Assad Regime thinks it is going to lose it might use chemical weapons or give WMDs to its terrorists allies in Lebanon, thus a threat to Israel.   Even the Oval has made it clear that any movement of chemical weapons would be a red line for the Oval and even more so for Israel.    Thus the Oval and the West has to make sure that the Syrian Civil War keeps its internal make up, also that Iran can not keep the Assad Regime in power through its use of Iraqi airspace.    Lets see how much pressure that the Oval can place on Iraq, it has no military presence in Iraq, thus limited influence with Baghdad who has to worry about its powerful neighbour Iran.   This Syrian Civil War and its aftermath could define a 2nd Obama term folks. 

The Iraq Channel for Syria and Iran

The New York Times: Reports on the military support for the Assad Regime in Syria from Iran, the Tehran Regime is using Iraqi airspace, the article notes the following on these supply missions, " ..route for weapons, including rockets, antitank missiles, rocket-propelled grenade and mortars. ".

Lets Get Real:

The question faced by the Oval is, do they give military support to the Syrian rebels, can they afford not to support the rebels, if as expected the Assad regime falls and the rebels take over with support from extreme Islamic supporters will they new regime be a friend of the US or a new threat to the US interests in the Middle East and Israel.   There have been reports that the rebels feel that the US has not given enough military support, communication support YES, and general supplies YES but no actual hardware, the hardware that the rebels have gotten have come from captured Syrian supplies and military support from the Gulf States, who have no time for Assad.   As to Iraq, well this problem is down to 1st Obama Term, they failed to get a military agreement with the Iraqi Government, the Oval let VP Biden lead the talks, thus bound to fail.  The Iraqi Government has its own internal problems, it does not need Tehran to get upset with them and cause more grief in Iraq.  If the US still had a presence it could check these planes form Iran but it does not, it almost has to beg the Iraqi Government to do its job.    As the article notes the following on the relationship between Baghdad and Tehran, " There is evidence of collusion between Iranian and Iraqi officials on the inspections, according to American intelligence assessments. ".  Thus next year folks the Middle East could get very hot, the Syrian Civil War might be reaching a tipping point, the attempt by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to make Egypt the next Iran could cause internal unrest, while Israel will be considering its options, it might decide to strike Iran without telling the Oval, that would not be new for Israel.   The 2nd Obama term folks might be more fraught than the Oval expects, the Middle East has way of doing what it wants not what the Oval wants or expects, that is international politics folks.