Friday, September 25, 2020

Positive Noise from UK/EU Trade talks - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Daily Mail: Reports " Are the UK and EU inching towards a post-Brexit trade deal? Optimism grows after Downing Street welcomes 'useful exchanges' while Brussels says 'the tide is turning' "

Lets Get Real:

This could be No 10 setting a path for a NO DEAL BREXIT and blaming the EU for not giving enough concessions.  On the other hand the UK might give concessions, such on our fish but argue  that the rest of the concessions work for the UK over all.  The next meeting of the two sides is next week, we should also recall that the PM has set a deadline of the 15th of October for a deal to be made, otherwise the UK will walk away from the talks.  As all the action is on the COVID - 19 side the press have let the talks go on without much leaks from the talks, as we get close to the deadline expect more press to look at the talks and seek leaks.   The outcome of the talks could decide the future of the UK.



Will there be a UK/EU Trade Deal ? - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " "On technical issues we're 90% there," was the upbeat assessment of EU-UK trade talks by a well-informed EU diplomat on Friday. " "

Lets Get Real:

As the article notes the LAST 10% is political, it could go either way, the question is who will blink first.  The EU side see a weak PM, faced with COVID - 19 and rebels on his own side and thus assume that he will take any DEAL.   That would be a BAD assumption, the PM won the 2019 general election on the voters trusting him on Brexit, if the PM states that the EU is not playing fair and a deal is off they will take his view over the EU and the hard press Remain in the UK.  Next week could be make or break, an official meeting in Brussels takes place, who put the white flag up first, who will bend, who will not break.  Interesting.