European Research Group not sure on the Windsor Framework - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News: Reports " Brexit-backing Tory MPs undecided on Rishi Sunak's Northern Ireland deal vote "

Lets Get Real:

The ERG should do the Conservative Party and the Country a favour by voting for the Belfast Break to future EU rules, but also keeping eye on the Government when it comes to Brexit and EU rules.   The lawyers do what they paid to to, find problems, bit like Doctors, this blog does not like going to the Doctor, thus feels okay, who knows.  Thus you need a lawyer and Doctor when you are in real trouble, this Windsor Framework is not it.  A recent poll has found that the Conservatives have narrowed the Labour Lead to 10 points.  Let's be honest PM Sunak is not Boris, but has a bit more charisma that Sir Keir Starmer.   The Country has of late seen deals with the train and nurses on pay, thus less strikes, the the Country feels better, the ERG MPs should rally to the flag and support the Windsor Framework, give PM Sunak a  chance at the next election.

DUP a NO on the Windsor Framework - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: DUP to vote against government over Windsor framework....Jeffrey Donaldson confirms unionist party will oppose Sunak plan for Northern Ireland in this week’s vote  "

Lets Get Real:

The DUP are very hard to please, they will vote against part of the deal that allows them to block future EU regulation, they want to say No to past rules, they seem unable to accept that they won, that goes for the ERG too, it has been reported that Boris will not support the Government on this issue, Boris has dreams of coming back as leader of the Conservative Opposition should PM Sunak lose the 2024 general election.  The former PM will be lucky if he is found not guilty of not telling the truth  to the House and suspended, its is reported that the PM will Conservative MPs a free vote on the issue, with the Opposition supporting the decision and most Conservatives voting against him, Boris could find himself suspended from the House and face a recall election.   Thus more internal civil wars in the Conservative Party from Brexit to Boris, its never boring in UK politics.  The UK might like a boring Sir Keir in charge, be careful for what you wish for voters. 

The DUP and Sunak's Brexit Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV News ) reports that the DUP is to set up a consultation panel to discuss the Windsor Framework.

Let's Get Real

The DUP is split, the House of  Commons members want to refuse the Deal, the leader seems more inclined to support the Deal, while Assembly members want to return to government, even if the First Minister will be a nationalist.  The 1st time in a 100 years. 

The consultation panel will allow for very frank discussions.   The DUP will take its time over this important issue.   The UK has built up the deal, the DUP will want some guarantees, over the Assembly block on legislation from the EU, that will mean some back room deals.  POTUS might find on his planned visit that's Assembly and Government will not have been reformed in the province, Oval will not be happy, no pics for the re-election in 2024.

The process will take time, the sides need to come together on their own free will, peace takes time, better than war - war.

UK to give legal assurance on N. Ireland's place in the UK - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports that the UK is to give a legal assurance on N. Ireland's place in the UK.

Let's Get Real:

It seems from the article that the DUP leadership needs something extra to give to its members.  It is reported that the House of Commons MPs want to stay out of the Assembly, while Assembly members want to go back.

The UK could call fresh elections to give the people a CHOICE, those Election results should send a clear message to the leaders in the province, that could clear the log jam, or revise the Good Friday Agreement, as to prevent any party having a VETO on the formation of Assembly and government.  That could force the hand of the DUP.  The Windsor Framework is the best deal going at present, the DUP should take a victory.

Former PM Boris SPEAKS about Windsor Framework- After Boris / After Brexit

Sky News reports that former PM Boris Johnson has stated he would find it difficult to vote for Sunak's Windsor Framework.

Let's Get Real

Boris has taken him time, perhaps to much, there are no signs of a massive rebellion in Conservative ranks, the DUP is split, one faction wants to stay out of the Assembly, while another wants to go back in to government.   If there is rebellion it could be very small, the Labour Party has stated it will support the government if there is a vote in the House of Commons.  Also  Northern Ireland will be run from London, as both the nationalists and the unionist are required to form a government in the province.

If the DUP say no, then the whole process has been a waste of time,  there will be no Presidential visit on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, no trade deal, and Sunak might need to seek an improved deal.  The EU will not be happy.   

Thus Sunak in the 2024 general election will be a weak candidate and the Good Friday Agreement might need to be revised, stopping the DUP from pulling this stunt, that could lead to the troubles coming back.

PM Sunak SPEAKS and the 1922 Committee - After Brexit/After Boris

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.58pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak has finished his meeting with the 1922 Committee. As my colleague Aubrey Allegretti reports, afterwards Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, said Tory MPs were supporting the PM with a sense of relief.  "

Lets Get Real:

The problem is not the ordinary Conservative MPs, its those members who are part of the European Research Group and what their lawyers say, and the ERG take the lead from the DUP.  Thus far the DUP have been very quiet, except those on the extreme Party who want purity.  They are in the wrong game for that development, it is what the rest of the DUP think that matters.   The walking out of the Assembly has delivered better polls for the DUP and of course we have the N. Ireland Council elections in May, the DUP might want to wait for them first before going back in to the Assembly if they are minded to go back, otherwise the whole process has been pretty pointless, this could be the last chance for the Assembly.  Thus a lot rides on what the DUP say in the future. 

PM Sunak in Northern Ireland to sell his NEW BREXIT DEAL - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 12.52pm post the following, " PM arrives for meetings with NI political parties.....The meetings are being held at a County Antrim hotel as the PM seeks support for his new agreement with the EU, aimed at reducing post-Brexit trade problems in Northern Ireland.  "

Thus far the DUP have not said NO, so far the ERG in the House of Commons has kept its viewpoints to itself, how long before the knifes come out for the agreement and who will go first, it can postulated that the DUP might be split about the Windsor Framework, the leader seems almost want to say YES, but he does not want to split the Party.   Former PM Boris has been very quiet, he has gone well under the radar, the ERG is meeting tonight after the PM meets the 1922 Committee, will they go their own way or follow the DUP.  The DEAL stands or falls on what the DUP say, the UK Government, the Biden Administration want the DUP to go back in to the Assembly, the question is will they, it hard to call this one, the DUP and the ERG lawyers will go through the various documents for the FRAMEWORK, we wait with a hope of success but knowing that North Ireland is a tough nut to crack even given the best will in the World. 

Windsor Framework Update - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.11pm post the following, " Boris Johnson 'reflecting' on Sunak's deal  " - Lets Get Real: Boris is wondering at the political cost of opposing the deal, and will his opposition lead to get No 10 back.  It going to be an interesting few hours and days.

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.33pm post the following, " Sir Bill Cash, the high priest of Brexit legalese, challenges the PM on a typically geeky point of law and is fortunate to receive a polite answer from Mr Sunak....More surprisingly, there’s criticism from unexpected quarters, the SDLP’s Column Eastwood and the Alliance Party’s Stephen Farry. So it's not just the DUP who could be problematic for Mr Sunak.  " - Lets Get Real: When it comes to Northern Ireland you are in tricky waters, you have your own MPs to worry about, what the different factions of the DUP are thinking, and those that you thought were on you side take the view that they should be on the opposing side to the DUP.

Guardian: Reports " DUP takes time and withholds judgment on Northern Ireland deal  "  Lets Get Real: Thus it comes down to the DUP, if the DUP say a big no, then the ERG or a majority of them will say no and the whole process of the UK and EU would have been pointless.  The point is to get the DUP back in to the Assembly otherwise no TRADE DEAL with the US and Biden will not visit the province.  What about bringing in Tony Blair, lets see if he still has his magic touch.  The Good Friday Agreement is his baby, if he wants to see it survive, he might like a chance of bring the sides together.   The problem might not be THE DUP leader, he gives the impression of wanting to say YES, but there are more extreme factions in the DUP, they want to win 100%, not good for politics.  Thus we await the verdict of the DUP.

Lets Get Real:

The problem might be the Good Friday Agreement, it gives either side, the Nationalists and supporters of the Union a VETO on the Assembly.  That is the only way it can work, otherwise the terrorism could restart from both sides,  in the text of the Good Friday Agreement is states that both sections of the communities have to agree or no assembly, if you change it, then the nationalists would have a majority, thus a return to the troubles. This is a hard nut to crack, let's hope the DUP say YES and surprise everyone. 

Main Points of New Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV ) reports the following:

1. Green lane for goods to Northern Ireland.

2. Red lane for goods going the Republic.

3. Assembly Break on new EU rules and legislation. 

4. Northen Ireland like the rest of UK for VAT and Government funding.

5  UK will get the same medicine as the rest of the UK.

Let's Get Real:

This sounds like an excellent deal, also Northern Ireland has access to the EU single market.   One does hope the fine print of the deal matches the rhetoric.  The DUP and the ERG will tell us shortly.  What will Boris say?  The House of Commons awaits! 

Brexit Deal Agreed - After Boris/After Brexit

Daily Mail ( on line ) reports that a new Brexit Deal has been agreed between the UK and the EU.

Let's Get Real:

Thus we await the detailed legal documents, there are reports that the DUP accepts the deal, let's wait in till we hear from the PM in the House of Commons at 6.30pm.  One assumes that the DUP will take its time, also the ERG, they will have the lawyers in, go through every word.   Don't hold your breath for the DUP they will want to give the impression that they have taken their time, politics is politics after all, in May there are Council elections, thus the DUP will want them to happen first before returning to Government if they support the DEAL.

Who invited the EU President to meet the King? - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports in its 12.27 post that No 10 stated it was up to the King who he invited for tea, the PM merely adviced the Monarch on the idea.

Let's Get Real:

The King is following the advice of his PM, No 10 wants to use everything it has to get Brexit Deal over the line.  Thus we wait what the DUP says and the ERG, the ERG will follow the DUP line.   The NEW DEAL as known will have a green lane, goods going to the province will not be checked, while a red lane will be goods going to the EU will be checked.  A limited role for the European Court of Justice, any issues from the deal will have different levels of judgement before ECJ, also the Belfast Assembly will have a say.  LONG DAY AHEAD! 

EU President to meet King Charles - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News ( TV ) reports that the EU President is to meet King Charles after Brexit talks with PM.

Let's Get Real:

The PM wants to use the King's meeting as to show Royal Approval for the new BREXIT DEAL, thus place pressure on the DUP and the ERG.  It has been reported by Buckingham Palace that the meeting is at the request of the Government.  Thus is a wise move by the King, in case Sunak has produced a dud.   As Sky News reports the PM will give a speech to the House of Commons at 6.30pm, it will be interesting to see the atmosphere of the House, the devil is in the details.

EU President to come to the UK tomorrow, New Northern Ireland Protocol on the Cards - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: Ursula von der Leyen to travel to UK for talks with Rishi Sunak  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus it looks a like there is a deal between the EU and the UK over a new Northern Ireland Protocol, the problems will come when the DUP and the lawyers of the ERG go through the protocol line by line.  The PM does not need a HOUSE OF COMMONS vote but there would be hell to pay if the PM does not have one, also the Labour Party has stated it will support any deal, to they look they are not playing political games, of course they playing games, it will be the Labour Party that saves the political bacon of Sunk if the new deal passes with Labour Votes.  Thus the political fun starts for us political geeks, depending on how the DEAL is sold, we could have a few Cabinet resignations and calls for Sunak to resign or face a leadership contest, fun time and Brexit has come again. 

A New Brexit DEAL CLOSE - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " Northern Ireland Protocol: UK on 'cusp' of new Brexit deal, says Dominic Raab "

Lets Get Real:

It seems that Monday will be Brexit DAY all over again, Conservative MPs have  been given a three line whip to turn up Monday, its is expected that the PM will announce a NEW NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL DEAL.  The framework from leaks is that there will be a green lane for goods only going to the province and RED lane  for those going to the Republic. The European Court will have a limited role, any legal problems will go through the UK Courts first and then the ECJ.   The final verdict on the new DEAL will be the DUP and the ERG, it could decide how long Sunak has in No 10.  The DEAL looks acceptable to this blogger, but the devil is in the details, so Monday should be the BIG DAY, we await with some cynicism, EU has bought down 3 PM's, could Sunak be the fourth.

Brexit Update - After Brexit/After Boris

Brexit was meant to be a done deal by this Tuesday, then Boris Johnson threw a wrench in!! Over the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill.

Daily Mail ( on line ) reports that Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary has warned the PM about selling out to the EU.

Let's Get Real:

PM Sunak can not afford to lose his backbench MP's and have Cabinet resignations.  That would be the end of him, as happened to PM's May, Johnson, Truss, therefore the PM must come back with a clear win from EU talks, the DUP must be squared, thus keep his own MP's happy.

The PM has less than two years to the next election, Labour have a 18 point lead in the polls, thus the PM needs tax cuts and a UNITED Conservative Party, that means getting his BREXIT MP's on the same page as him.   There is still time for Sunak to prevent another 1997 type loss, the ICEBERG is the EU and the Northern Ireland Protocol. A week is a long time in politics!!!

Threat to the NEW DEAL over the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Brexit/ After Boris

Guardian: Reports " Rishi Sunak warned more than 100 Tory MPs could rebel over NI Protocol deal.....PM’s efforts at breaking Brexit deadlock could be scuppered by hardliners in his party as Boris Johnson urges tougher stance  "

Lets Get Real:

Will the Brexit debate ever end, will the debate about Northern Ireland Protocol ever go away, this blog will wait to see if there is a new DEAL and what is in it, before stating a viewpoint on the DEAL.  As reported there is a green lane, for goods going to Northern Ireland and a red lane for goods going to the Republic.  It seems everyone can agree on that, the major problem is the European Court of Justice, it will be up to the DUP to decide if the NEW DEAL they can support and get back into the Northern Ireland Assembly, if the DUP say YES, that means they can get behind the DEAL, in the DUP seven points the ECJ does not come up, it seems from reports that there will be different levels before the ECJ would decide on TRADE MATTERS.  The European Research Group has a major problem with the ECJ having any say in the Northern Ireland, thus the threat of a major revolt.  The PM has to remember that the needs them for the rest of the year before the election in 2024, if the DUP have a problem and the ERG have a problem, it would be better to carry on with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, this will remove any problems between the UK and Northern Ireland, that is really annoying the EU, tough luck, the PM should follow the advice of Boris, show the EU that they have to bend, or they lose the lot.  

Is a Revised Northern Ireland Protocol CLOSE ? - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " Brexit: PM needs to agree right deal on protocol, say DUP...Sources suggest an agreement could be reached as early as next week.  "

Lets Get Real:

There has been a upbeat tone to the latest talks, the PM went to Northern Ireland to talk to the Parties, every side seems to get that this could be it, a time for a DEAL.  At the press conference after the DUP leader seem to give the impression that the DUP would get back in to Government with the Nationalists, just a few things needed to be shorted out.  THIS comes to the classic, the devil is in the detail, will both sides in Northern Ireland agree to the NEW DEAL when shown the details, will the European Research Group who take their stand based on what the DUP says, follow and support their PM, the Labour Party has stated that it will support any new DEAL, that does not help the PM, if the ERG KNOW that the DUP is not supportive they will not follow a three line whip. Any DEAL only works if the DUP will go back in to Government, the role of the European Court of Justice will be very important, how close in the deal is the ECJ part of the process, that could be the sticky wicket for ALL SIDES.  The commentary is that that a deal could be done by Tuesday. 

EU talks down DEAL on NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL - After Brexit/After Boris

Brexit forever!

BBC News: Reports " NI Protocol: EU talks down reports of compromise deal on European court.....Officials in Brussels have dismissed fresh claims of a compromise deal on the European Court of Justice's (ECJ) role in the Northern Ireland Protocol.  "

Lets Get Real:

It is has been officially denied that there is a DEAL on the protocol, thus that means that a DEAL is close, you always KNOW something is true when it has been denied ( Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister ).  The real question is will the ERG in the House of Commons accept the new deal, they are lead by the DUP from Northern Ireland.  Any new DEAL must allow the transfer of goods from mainland to the province with no custom checks, that seems to have been agreed, while goods going to the Republic will have to go through the normal customs process in a different lane.  Thus will DUP accept a WIN, the UK gives role for the European Court if requested by North Ireland Judges, that seems like a good deal for the DUP, the question will they take YES as answer.  Thus it makes sure the province is part of the UK, but also the benefits of being in the EU.  The BIG QUESTION is will the DUP agree to go back in to Government, if they say YES, then the Biden Oval will be happy to visit to on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, if they refuse, the Biden will not come, a pit pointless.  Also the Biden Oval should keep out of the process, the Biden Oval is seen as to pro Republic also their special advisor, from the Kennedy clan, so that would not be a good idea.   It will be an interesting few days!!

Getting rid of EU Laws from UK Law - After Brexit/After Boris

Daily Mail: Reports " Rishi Sunak pushes ahead with bid to scrap EU laws by the end of this year but faces rebellion from senior Tories who want to give Commons greater oversight over junking Brussels legislation "

Lets Get Real:

The UK House of Commons passed the Retained EU Law (Revocation and Reform) Bill and know it goes to the House of Lords, there House of Lords should be called the House of Remainers, expect the Remainers to try to change the bill, they want to keep EU law in the hope that the UK will rejoin, this looks like a stupid idea, since even Sir Keir Starmer has accepted that the UK will not go back in to the EU, thus it can be postulated that Brexit is save with both the Conservatives and Labour Parties.  Once the House of Lords changes the above bill there changes can either be thrown out or accepted by the House of Commons, as the Conservatives have a good majority they should be able to push it through.  The UK people have made it CLEAR that they want the UK out of the EU, and it's about time the House of Lords accepted that, or else it might be time to abolish them, it's only a home for failed politicians. 

Solving the Northern Ireland Protocol problem - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " NI Protocol: UK and EU reach agreement on trade data sharing "

Lets Get Real:

The might be start of the solution to the problem of the Northern Ireland Protocol, two lanes, EU and GB NI lane.  The problem will be in the small print and if the tech is advance enough to cope with the day to day problems of transport between the NI and rest of the Ireland.  As soon as there are solutions on the EU and British side, the DUP will be looking closely at any deal and with shout betrayal if it looks like the UK is again allowing the EU to control part of the UK.  The DUP need to agree as to allow the Northern Ireland Assembly to come in to force, this will make a Nationalist leader the First Minister in Northern Ireland, that show that the Good Friday Agreement working, and that is what the Biden Oval wants to see before the President comes over to celebrate the anniversary of the agreement. It would be nice to finally put Brexit over the line, it can become quite boring after endless talks going over the same thing all over again.