Mid Term Polls

RCP: Reports on its Average of the generic polls for Mid Term Congressional Elections, the Parties stand at the following, Republicans 49.1% and Democrats 41.6%, a Republican lead of 7.7%. This kind of swing would give the Republicans a good working majority in the House and close to parity with the Democrats in the Senate. Thus the question is what will POTUS do, can he get beyond his own ideological agenda, can see that the US is to his right. The success of Reagan and Clinton was their ability to be pragmatic, to deal with real world of politics, Reagan would rent votes in the House for deals in local districts that benefited the Congressman, very much like LBJ. Clinton could see that the centre had moved to the right thus followed an Agenda that most moderate or even Conservative Republicans could support, its called being a good politician, even if Reagan just called himself an ex Actor and not a politician. Thus my political advice to POTUS, give the Republicans the Bush 43 tax cuts they want, they might be able to over ride a Presidential veto of tax cuts to all, also start to fight your base, the voters wont take President Obama as a serious politician unless he takes on his base, thus he should tell his base that he will reform ObamaCare, that the US will stay and win in Afghanistan, that there is no more money for government jobs. This just might get POTUS re-elected in 2012, no guarantees but it better than being another Jimmy Carter.

Iran and Afghanistan - Obama Administration

Fox News: Reports that the Chief of Staff to President Karzai of Afghanistan is being bribed by Iran to push the interests of Iran. The Obama Administration can not afford to lose Afghanistan to Iran, in Iraq Tehran is pulling the strings for the new government, the power of Iran comes from the fact that it is expected to become a nuclear armed power with next couple of years. As Obama was anti Iraq War he has allowed Iraq to fall in to clutches of Iran, with Afghanistan it was meant to be the good war, it was the war the Democrats wanted to fight in 2008. Its is 2011 that is important to Obama’s Foreign Policy, by the end of 2011 the US will be out of Iraq, the question is will Iraq become a puppet of Iran or will Iraqi nationalism come to the fore, thus making Iraq more neutral in the cold war between Iran and the US. Also in 2011 President Obama has stated that the US will start to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, this statement was made to keep the left wing of the Democratic Party happy, the problem is if your poor Afghan are you going to put your head on the line in a literal sense to support NATO forces when you hear the US President state that he wants out of Afghanistan, don’t have to be that bright to answer that question. The point of Afghanistan is not AFGHANISTAN, it is Pakistan, both Pakistan and India are nuclear armed powers, it would be a disaster for the West if the Taliban of Pakistan take over Pakistan, the West would have invade Pakistan, it would be to much of a threat, thus to keep Pakistan stable the West has to win in Afghanistan. The badlands of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan is the safe heaven for the terrorists, if they have a secure base in Afghanistan they could topple the Government of Pakistan. Thus President Obama is about to find out if he is the brightest person in the room, can he secure Afghanistan, withdraw troops and not lose Pakistan to the Taliban, either the brightest or a dud, those are the choices, and your cant use the race card on Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Coalition Government and the House of Lords

Mail on Sunday: Reports that Coalition PM and Conservative Leader David Cameron and his Deputy Nick Clegg, leader of the Liberal Democrats will place 44 new members in the House of Lords to prevent defeat by Labour. The Conservative and Lib Dems won the election thus they have the right to pack the House of Lords with those that will support the Government, also this makes sure the Lords will never be reformed, when the spending cuts really hurt the Coalition Government is not going to reform the Upper House in to an elected body as this would give the Labour Party a chance to veto laws it can not stop in the House of Commons. Thus is pure politics 101, you don’t shoot yourself in the foot!

Women = Republican

Guardian: Reports in the equal split in the female vote between the Democrats and the Republican in House voting patterns, how the once Democratic base has split between political parties. This is why Democrats are in trouble in 2010, the usual Democratic tactic is to say that Republicans will outlaw abortion, well it has not happened yet, also there has been a growing move by females voters against abortion, the old fear tactic by Democrats might just be counter productive, one sometimes gets the impression that Democrats are still fighting elections of the 20th Century, not wanting to get the fact that its 21st Century and people change, it will be interesting on election night to see the how the female votes goes, and how this effects different races.

The New Peter Mandelson = David Laws

Telegraph: Reports that the former Chief secretary to the Treasury David Laws could make a return to the Coalition Government by Christmas if he does not get a severe rebuke due to his expenses claims. Lets recall Mr Laws is a leading Liberal Democrat and comes from a business background in the City, his term is office was the shortest on record just 17 days. Mr Laws is held in high regard by both the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats, thus if the rebuke and considering the facts the rebuke should be mild, one can see Mr Laws back in the Coalition Government, being a very effective Cabinet Minister.
　

Obama 43% Approval - Gallup

Gallup: Reports on its latest daily tracking poll for President Obama, on Sunday the President is on 43% Approval and 48% Disapproval. This is not good for the Democrats heading in to the 2010 Mid Term Congressional Elections, Reagan in 1982 lost 28 House Seats, while Clinton in 1994 lost the House to the Republicans. Thus the best outcome for the Oval would be to lose around 26-30 seats but still keep control of the House, the worse outcome would be to lose the House and the Senate, a half victory would be to lose the House but keep the Senate and win a few Governorships in key states for 2012.