Andy Burnham in a Economic hole over Defence-Update

Sky News: Reports in its 9.10am post the following, " Team Burnham 'furious' over defence shortfall - and why it could be more than £4.7bn "

Let's Get Real:

PM Starmer is being pushed out by Andy Burnham, thus he is leaving him a explosive political present.  The UK could be at war with Russia in a few years over the Baltic States or Poland.  Thus WW3 could be around the corner, and the UK is not ready, due to Conservative and Labour failures over the years.  Thus PM Andy Burnham needs to learn fast.

Vote Reform on Thursday

Tired of the OLD Parties, want a BIG change!

Had enough of one party rule in Wales = Change

Tired of Sir Keir Starmer and his numerous U - turns= Change!!

Vote Reform in the elections for Change

Vote Reform for Change

What have you got to LOSE!

Vote Thursday = Reform

Future of POTUS ? - 2024 Candidates/ 2024 General Election - Biden Era

UK General Election:  The Labour Party won a majority of 174, so far lets give them the benefit of the doubt, we have them for at least 10 years!

BBC News: Reports " Democrats weigh risks and rewards of losing Biden.....President Joe Biden sought to revive his beleaguered re-election effort on Sunday, as members of his party debated the future of his candidacy.  "

Lets Get Real:

The debate about the future of POTUS has been going on for a week and half, it was not a great debate, POTUS is old and past it, but he wants to keep supporting the Ukraine and wants to defend the US and Western Europe from the threat of Putin.   The Democrats if they believe their own PR, see Trump as a threat to the US, well if they think that and that Biden could cost the them election, they have to act, if they do not, then they should leave Biden on the ticket, the has earned that from them.  It seems that it is down on the Democrats on the HILL, do they want a contested convention, if so they need to hurry up, the men and women on the Hill need to see the POTUS and tell him in the Oval Office, that it is over,  comes to most politicians at the end of the day!!

Vote Conservative Tomorrow or Else forever Labour Government

If you VOTE LABOUR = TAX HIKES

                                           Unions going on strike

                                           NO BREXIT

                                           How will Labour pay for its plans

                                           BE SCARED IF YOU ARE OLD

                                            All Labour Governments end in disaster

                                             Putin will be happy

                                              Not to Late

                Vote Conservative, you have been warned by the Cassandra of North Wales. 

Labour to have a Majority of 212 - Poll Projection - Labour Era - Sir Keir Starmer Era

 This ghastly General Election is coming to end, there is a God, ! 

Sky News: Reports "  General Election: Labour on course for biggest majority of any party since 1832 - final YouGov projection...Labour are on course for a landslide victory on Thursday with a majority of 212 seats according to the final YouGov poll projection of the campaign.  "

Lets Get Real:

Lets talk about the elephant in the room, the Labour Party under Sir Keir will win tomorrow, its a simple lesson, that Governments lose elections, and this case it can be argued that Sir Keir did not win it, one is just waiting for a crisis to come, and it will show that the Labour support is shallow.  At least he is a Knight of the Realm, he will know how to behave at Royal Dinners.  Labour is going to blow it big time, how will they get the money want if they have promised not to increase taxes, the OAP with savings will get hit, they have been warned and have not listened.  All Labour Governments lead the UK to a financial crisis, the trade unions want their polices acted upon, the best day of Sir Keir's career stats tomorrow and Friday, its down hill from there PM. No one ever listens to Cassandra of NORTH WALES.

Who WON the Election Debate between Starmer and Sunak - 2024 Candidates/2024 General Election - The Future Labour Government

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 10.14pm post the following, " 

Sunak wins first TV debate... just...

We've just had the results from a snap debate poll taken by YouGov during the contest....The audience responded: Rishi Sunak: 51%, Sir Keir Starmer: 49%  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog thought it was draw, but one can argue that Sunak WON, his charge that Labour would raise taxes by 2,000 for everybody in the UK, hit home and the Labour Leader did not come up with a clear rebuke.   This blog was shocked that the Ukraine did not come up, what happens if Russia wins in the Ukraine, what will Sir Keir do then, he keeps going on about him time as Director of Prosecutions, what will he do about the WAR CRIMINAL Putin.   One does hope security comes up in the next debate.   Also the Scottish Question, what will Labour do about Scotland.   THIS is going to be long campaign, Labour will win with a big majority, the question can you trust them on security and the defence of the realm.

UK General Election on July 4th - The Next Labour Government - Starmer Era

BBC News: Reports " When is the next UK general election and who can vote?...Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said the next general election will take place on 4 July.  "

Lets Get Real:

The PM has gone early, it is reported on Sky News that he feared letters going in to the 1922 Committee, he could have waited in January 2025, he either thinks he has a chance, the polls show him the Conservatives losing by 20% to Labour, or he wants to make the Conservative Party and its factions sorry, as they will lose members.  This blog will take an interest in Labour's Foreign policy and Defence, just in case they go nuts again.   The news media will try to make it a competitive race, it wont be, the Country is tired after 13 and half years of Conservative rule, so they want a change, Labour might find wining is not that much fun with WW3 on the horizon, will Sir Keir press that red button if he has too, what about immigration and the welfare budget.  There will be endless press coverage, this blog will be selective as not to bore the reader. 

Projected House of Common AFTER UK General Election - Labour Era

Sky News: Reports " Sky News projection: Labour on course to be largest party - but short of overall majority...Using the latest figures from the local elections, it can be projected that Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament - but falls short of a Commons majority by 32 seats.  "

Lets Get Real:

If Sky is right, then the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer will not have an overall majority, that is a concern but then the Liberal Democrats will give LABOUR  a supply and support motion, in other words Liberal Dems will support a Labour Budget, but will not want to go in to coalition as they will have learned from 2010.   If that does not happen there are others Parties who might support Labour just to keep the Conservative OUT.  The Party of Thatcher needs a few years in Opposition to decide what it is for and against.   The Party should think about bringing back Boris as leader if he wants the job.   One can expect Labour will make a mess of it, they usually do, the Conservatives can clear up the mess, Starmer is no Blair, and this will not be 1997 all over again.

US debt ceiling Part 2 - Biden Era

 BBC News: Reports " US debt ceiling: Biden and Republicans hopeful of a deal "

Lets Get Real:

If Biden really wants to win in 2024 he should agree that those on US welfare have to search for work, that is the deal in the UK, the Democrats have created a poor welfare structure, that only allows for people in poor families to aim to get on welfare when they hit 18.  The old industries, like the car industry has moved from urban areas, thus no work for the working poor.   The new industries require people to have a University Degree, thus poor education standard in most US Schools and welfare being the only option has created Democratic voters, that is why LIBERALS do no want to annoy their voting base by making them search for jobs.   POTUS  should show that he cares what the rest of the Country thinks, they want those on welfare to search for jobs for getting welfare.  As someone will say, what about COVID 19 aftermath,  people who found they liked getting welfare and not working, they should be forced back to work on no welfare.  If POTUS  did this he would get re-elected in 2024.   The question is what will liberals do, they will not vote for Trump, they have nowhere else to go, thus the Democrats have a captive audience. 

Published

Storm Shadows Cruise Missiles in Ukraine - Ukraine - Russia War - Biden Era

Sky News - Live Blog:  Reports in its 7.30pm post the following, " Watch: Storm Shadows already in Ukraine....Earlier today, the UK announced it will send long-range Storm Shadow missiles to Ukraine....But Sky News understands some are already in the country.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Russians are not happy that the UK is giving long range cruise missiles to the KYIV Government, well its is their fault for invading the Ukraine and committing base WAR CRIMES from murder to rape and the missile attacks on the people of the Ukraine.  The Ukraine offensive is expected soon, the Kyiv Government needs to push the Russians back to the Crimea or back to Russia prober.  The Russians will do nothing, they have shown they make empty threats from nukes to other actions.  Putin is a WEAK War leader, no Stalin, and Stalin was not much of a war leader, he was hiding at his country house for the first week of the German invasion in 1941.   One does wonder why the West was afraid of the Russian Army, they have shown that they are useless and War Criminals. The invasion of the Ukraine is a stain on Russia, they have enough stains from other actions, the killing of the Tsar and his family in 1918, the Soviet period and the murders ordered by Putin. The Russians have to lose this WAR. 

The DUP and Sunak's Brexit Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV News ) reports that the DUP is to set up a consultation panel to discuss the Windsor Framework.

Let's Get Real

The DUP is split, the House of  Commons members want to refuse the Deal, the leader seems more inclined to support the Deal, while Assembly members want to return to government, even if the First Minister will be a nationalist.  The 1st time in a 100 years. 

The consultation panel will allow for very frank discussions.   The DUP will take its time over this important issue.   The UK has built up the deal, the DUP will want some guarantees, over the Assembly block on legislation from the EU, that will mean some back room deals.  POTUS might find on his planned visit that's Assembly and Government will not have been reformed in the province, Oval will not be happy, no pics for the re-election in 2024.

The process will take time, the sides need to come together on their own free will, peace takes time, better than war - war.

Former PM Boris SPEAKS about Windsor Framework- After Boris / After Brexit

Sky News reports that former PM Boris Johnson has stated he would find it difficult to vote for Sunak's Windsor Framework.

Let's Get Real

Boris has taken him time, perhaps to much, there are no signs of a massive rebellion in Conservative ranks, the DUP is split, one faction wants to stay out of the Assembly, while another wants to go back in to government.   If there is rebellion it could be very small, the Labour Party has stated it will support the government if there is a vote in the House of Commons.  Also  Northern Ireland will be run from London, as both the nationalists and the unionist are required to form a government in the province.

If the DUP say no, then the whole process has been a waste of time,  there will be no Presidential visit on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, no trade deal, and Sunak might need to seek an improved deal.  The EU will not be happy.   

Thus Sunak in the 2024 general election will be a weak candidate and the Good Friday Agreement might need to be revised, stopping the DUP from pulling this stunt, that could lead to the troubles coming back.

PM Sunak SPEAKS and the 1922 Committee - After Brexit/After Boris

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.58pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak has finished his meeting with the 1922 Committee. As my colleague Aubrey Allegretti reports, afterwards Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, said Tory MPs were supporting the PM with a sense of relief.  "

Lets Get Real:

The problem is not the ordinary Conservative MPs, its those members who are part of the European Research Group and what their lawyers say, and the ERG take the lead from the DUP.  Thus far the DUP have been very quiet, except those on the extreme Party who want purity.  They are in the wrong game for that development, it is what the rest of the DUP think that matters.   The walking out of the Assembly has delivered better polls for the DUP and of course we have the N. Ireland Council elections in May, the DUP might want to wait for them first before going back in to the Assembly if they are minded to go back, otherwise the whole process has been pretty pointless, this could be the last chance for the Assembly.  Thus a lot rides on what the DUP say in the future. 

Windsor Framework Update - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.11pm post the following, " Boris Johnson 'reflecting' on Sunak's deal  " - Lets Get Real: Boris is wondering at the political cost of opposing the deal, and will his opposition lead to get No 10 back.  It going to be an interesting few hours and days.

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.33pm post the following, " Sir Bill Cash, the high priest of Brexit legalese, challenges the PM on a typically geeky point of law and is fortunate to receive a polite answer from Mr Sunak....More surprisingly, there’s criticism from unexpected quarters, the SDLP’s Column Eastwood and the Alliance Party’s Stephen Farry. So it's not just the DUP who could be problematic for Mr Sunak.  " - Lets Get Real: When it comes to Northern Ireland you are in tricky waters, you have your own MPs to worry about, what the different factions of the DUP are thinking, and those that you thought were on you side take the view that they should be on the opposing side to the DUP.

Guardian: Reports " DUP takes time and withholds judgment on Northern Ireland deal  "  Lets Get Real: Thus it comes down to the DUP, if the DUP say a big no, then the ERG or a majority of them will say no and the whole process of the UK and EU would have been pointless.  The point is to get the DUP back in to the Assembly otherwise no TRADE DEAL with the US and Biden will not visit the province.  What about bringing in Tony Blair, lets see if he still has his magic touch.  The Good Friday Agreement is his baby, if he wants to see it survive, he might like a chance of bring the sides together.   The problem might not be THE DUP leader, he gives the impression of wanting to say YES, but there are more extreme factions in the DUP, they want to win 100%, not good for politics.  Thus we await the verdict of the DUP.

Lets Get Real:

The problem might be the Good Friday Agreement, it gives either side, the Nationalists and supporters of the Union a VETO on the Assembly.  That is the only way it can work, otherwise the terrorism could restart from both sides,  in the text of the Good Friday Agreement is states that both sections of the communities have to agree or no assembly, if you change it, then the nationalists would have a majority, thus a return to the troubles. This is a hard nut to crack, let's hope the DUP say YES and surprise everyone. 

Main Points of New Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV ) reports the following:

1. Green lane for goods to Northern Ireland.

2. Red lane for goods going the Republic.

3. Assembly Break on new EU rules and legislation. 

4. Northen Ireland like the rest of UK for VAT and Government funding.

5  UK will get the same medicine as the rest of the UK.

Let's Get Real:

This sounds like an excellent deal, also Northern Ireland has access to the EU single market.   One does hope the fine print of the deal matches the rhetoric.  The DUP and the ERG will tell us shortly.  What will Boris say?  The House of Commons awaits! 

Who invited the EU President to meet the King? - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports in its 12.27 post that No 10 stated it was up to the King who he invited for tea, the PM merely adviced the Monarch on the idea.

Let's Get Real:

The King is following the advice of his PM, No 10 wants to use everything it has to get Brexit Deal over the line.  Thus we wait what the DUP says and the ERG, the ERG will follow the DUP line.   The NEW DEAL as known will have a green lane, goods going to the province will not be checked, while a red lane will be goods going to the EU will be checked.  A limited role for the European Court of Justice, any issues from the deal will have different levels of judgement before ECJ, also the Belfast Assembly will have a say.  LONG DAY AHEAD! 

EU President to meet King Charles - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News ( TV ) reports that the EU President is to meet King Charles after Brexit talks with PM.

Let's Get Real:

The PM wants to use the King's meeting as to show Royal Approval for the new BREXIT DEAL, thus place pressure on the DUP and the ERG.  It has been reported by Buckingham Palace that the meeting is at the request of the Government.  Thus is a wise move by the King, in case Sunak has produced a dud.   As Sky News reports the PM will give a speech to the House of Commons at 6.30pm, it will be interesting to see the atmosphere of the House, the devil is in the details.

EU President to come to the UK tomorrow, New Northern Ireland Protocol on the Cards - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: Ursula von der Leyen to travel to UK for talks with Rishi Sunak  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus it looks a like there is a deal between the EU and the UK over a new Northern Ireland Protocol, the problems will come when the DUP and the lawyers of the ERG go through the protocol line by line.  The PM does not need a HOUSE OF COMMONS vote but there would be hell to pay if the PM does not have one, also the Labour Party has stated it will support any deal, to they look they are not playing political games, of course they playing games, it will be the Labour Party that saves the political bacon of Sunk if the new deal passes with Labour Votes.  Thus the political fun starts for us political geeks, depending on how the DEAL is sold, we could have a few Cabinet resignations and calls for Sunak to resign or face a leadership contest, fun time and Brexit has come again. 

Is a Revised Northern Ireland Protocol CLOSE ? - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " Brexit: PM needs to agree right deal on protocol, say DUP...Sources suggest an agreement could be reached as early as next week.  "

Lets Get Real:

There has been a upbeat tone to the latest talks, the PM went to Northern Ireland to talk to the Parties, every side seems to get that this could be it, a time for a DEAL.  At the press conference after the DUP leader seem to give the impression that the DUP would get back in to Government with the Nationalists, just a few things needed to be shorted out.  THIS comes to the classic, the devil is in the detail, will both sides in Northern Ireland agree to the NEW DEAL when shown the details, will the European Research Group who take their stand based on what the DUP says, follow and support their PM, the Labour Party has stated that it will support any new DEAL, that does not help the PM, if the ERG KNOW that the DUP is not supportive they will not follow a three line whip. Any DEAL only works if the DUP will go back in to Government, the role of the European Court of Justice will be very important, how close in the deal is the ECJ part of the process, that could be the sticky wicket for ALL SIDES.  The commentary is that that a deal could be done by Tuesday. 

EU talks down DEAL on NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL - After Brexit/After Boris

Brexit forever!

BBC News: Reports " NI Protocol: EU talks down reports of compromise deal on European court.....Officials in Brussels have dismissed fresh claims of a compromise deal on the European Court of Justice's (ECJ) role in the Northern Ireland Protocol.  "

Lets Get Real:

It is has been officially denied that there is a DEAL on the protocol, thus that means that a DEAL is close, you always KNOW something is true when it has been denied ( Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister ).  The real question is will the ERG in the House of Commons accept the new deal, they are lead by the DUP from Northern Ireland.  Any new DEAL must allow the transfer of goods from mainland to the province with no custom checks, that seems to have been agreed, while goods going to the Republic will have to go through the normal customs process in a different lane.  Thus will DUP accept a WIN, the UK gives role for the European Court if requested by North Ireland Judges, that seems like a good deal for the DUP, the question will they take YES as answer.  Thus it makes sure the province is part of the UK, but also the benefits of being in the EU.  The BIG QUESTION is will the DUP agree to go back in to Government, if they say YES, then the Biden Oval will be happy to visit to on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, if they refuse, the Biden will not come, a pit pointless.  Also the Biden Oval should keep out of the process, the Biden Oval is seen as to pro Republic also their special advisor, from the Kennedy clan, so that would not be a good idea.   It will be an interesting few days!!