Saturday, December 05, 2020

It's the fault of the French - Brexit Update 3 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

The Germans will have to place big political pressure on the French to BACKDOWN, the EU needs a deal, that also includes the Germans.  Berlin will have to promise that the EU in other words the German taxpayer will support French fishermen thrown out of the English Channel.  The next 48 hours will be interesting, will the French President want to be seen as a BAD EUROPEAN, or will local politics trump being a good European and saying NO to a BREXIT DEAL.

The problems FACED by the UK/EU over Brexit - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

On level playing field, the UK Government cannot give, the very reason for leaving the EU is that the UK will decide its own rules, without having to answer to the EU.  Thus very limited scope for that, one or a two year transition might be doable, if the ECJ is kept out of it and we the UK get 70% of fish caught in the channel at the minimum.  The Germans over the weekend will have to muzzle the French, the Germans will have to promise EU support for fishing families hurt by the decline of the UK market.  Also the UK PM will have to keep the hard Brexit MPs in the House of Commons happy, even if they oppose with Labour support  the deal can be passed, but that is not good enough in a political context, the PM will have been seen to sell out UK interests, that would be a hard political fight back.  Thus we wait and see!

More UK/EU talks over Brexit, but major problems - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

This blog is cynical, if there are fast differences why bother having further talks, if neither side is going to fold its just PR for reporters to cover.  On the other hand if there is a REAL DEAL to get but the sides have to shown they took every last minute then that is good PR.  On the other  hand it could be that UK PM is playing hardball, the Internal Markets Bill comes back to the House of Commons on Monday, it is expected that the Government will restore those clauses removed by the House of Lords, thus driving the EU nuts.  Tomorrow the 24/7 news channels will cover the latest news from Brussels, can the sides agree and what will happen with the leaders talk on the phone on Monday night? A interesting 48 hours in European politics.