Conservatives 4% ahead of Labour - Election 2015

Ashcroft National Polls: Reports " Con 34%, Lab 30%, Lib Dem 10%, UKIP 13%, Green 4% "

Lets Get Real:

A second poll that has the Conservatives ahead, but the article notes the following, " The changes are within the margin of error, suggesting that the parties’ national vote shares remain very close. ".  It can be argued that Ed Miliband should be able to get the Labour vote to around 33% to 35%, even if the Conservatives had a lead of about 1% to 2% the Labour Party should have more Seats in the House of Commons.   This blog when being subjective supports the Conservative Party, but in its objective mode it follows the polls, which way people are betting, and its guts instinct.   Of course it would be a nice surprise if on May8th the Conservative Party wins outright, but that does not look to be in the cards, the cards show a Labour victory with the support of the SNP.   They say we get the Government or anarchy we deserve.   

The THREAT to the UK from the SNP - Election 2015

Daily Mail: Reports " 'A match made in hell': Fury as Sturgeon reveals her £140billion price tag for doing a deal with Labour where the SNP calls the shots across Britain..

• Includes an end to austerity, £140billion in spending and scrapping Trident "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the price for Ed Miliband getting his hands on No 10 is taking the UK down the road of Greece, that is the only way that the SNP will support him, but the cost to UK would be a disaster, it could lead to the end of Labour in the England.   There is always a price, so will Ed stab the English in the back as he stabbed his brother's political career.   It is a simple QUESTION, do you TRUST Miliband, will he look after your interests or himself and Labour.   Voters IF you vote for the Labour Party you get the SNP also, its the price you will pay,  the UK will go down the road of France and Greece, we will become the laughing stock of Europe.   Labour will have its strings pulled by a party that wants to end the UK.   Thus think carefully before you vote on May 7th.  The future of the UK is in your hands, VOTE Conservative. 

Follow the Money - Election 2015

Guardian - Politics Live: Reports in its 3.15pm the following post, " Paddy Power say they have now got Ed Miliband as favourite to be prime minister for the first time since October 2014. He is priced at 5/6.. "

Lets Get Real:

They say follow the money, in this case what the great British public are betting on in the election of 2015.   Thus the neck by neck nature of the polls and this above supports my election projection, in that projection this blog has a Labour Government either with a majority or just a few seats bellow the magic 326 required.    Of course a betting on something is a risk, you can lose your shirt.   Lets recall there are over 600+ Seats, in each contest is different.   Thus you have to use what is out there such as p0lls and follow the money of the voter,  and your gut, this gut feels that the SNP threat will work to get the English and the Welsh out to vote, they will not like the idea that they are been run from Scotland. 

Conservatives 2% ahead of Labour - Election 2015

BBC News - Politics Live: Reports on the following tweet by Lord Ashcroft, " ICM poll CON 34% LAB 32% LDEM 10% UKIP 11% GRNS 5%" "

Lets Get Real:

As noted in essence we have a tied race, of course polls have known be wrong, they were a disaster in 1992, they had a Labour victory.   This blog has noticed what when asked who they will vote for VOTERS say Conservative in a quite voice, as if they are having a tax audit.  The question that has to be asked, COULD ALL the polls be wrong, this old gut of mine feels there are movements towards either Labour or the Conservative Party getting a majority.   The English will not like the idea that the SNP would control the polices for the English and Welsh but does not include Scotalnd.    The SNP just might have created a reason for the English to vote for a majority Party, if nothing else to stop the SNP.   At least it adds a bit fiz to the election.