Monday, March 11, 2019

The Irish Government and the BACKSTOP - Brexit Update 2 - Post Brexit or NO BREXIT?


Lets Get Real:

One assumes that there is a DEAL on the table, the question is does it throw the Republic of Ireland under the BUS, if all the other 26 EU Countries support the deal it will be HARD for Dublin to say NO, it would not go down well with the EU and the HARD REMAINERS in the UK House of Commons would have to justify any NO, that kind of argument could cost political careers. Of course this is all speculation, we will have to wait till we have remarks form the PM and the Brexit Secretary. A NO DEAL Brexit would be BAD for Ireland, the EU would have to support it financially and the UK could refuse point black to give the EU its 39 billion. This is a high stakes poker game, one does get the impression that the EU has blinked, it fears a No Deal PM should May be forced out of OFFICE.

A UK/EU Deal over Brexit ?- Post Brexit or No Brexit?


Lets Get Real:

The following is speculation, one assumes the PM has not gone to STRASBOURG just for a chat but to sign off a deal.   The question is will it allow the UK to leave the backstop and when, and what will be the role of the European Court in the final analyses. IF there is a DEAL, the HARD BREXIT MPs should support it, it gets the UK out of the political structure that is the EU ( the economic side does not bother this blog ).   The NEXT PM can deal with the future relationship.  A delay would go down badly with VOTERS, it would look like a political shafting by the ELITE, a technical delay to get laws passed would be okay, anything else would devalue the 2016 vote.   It will be interesting to see what the HARD BREXIT MPs say over the next few hours, this WEEK could decide the future of the UK for years.