Monday, September 28, 2020

Has the EU blinked ? - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

In essence, both the UK and the EU are over a barrel, this is not a normal time, there is COVID - 19 write large over the EU countries, the UK is bringing out harsher restrictions by the day.  Both sides need a deal that they can sell to the public but also are good for their economic condition at the present.  The PM has a hard sell, he has to sell any deal to this MPs, who are in rebellion mode at the moment due to COVID - 19.   Both sides need a diversion, the public it can be argued are very much bored with the endless talks, make a decision one way or another.   PM Boris could do with a success, it has been a hard few months since his great general election victory.

Trump and his Supreme Choice, Amy Coney Barrett and the US Presidential Election

This blog has been following the US election news, but it has found it is better not to get caught up the weeds or the tweets of POTUS and the arch liberal press!


Lets Get Real:

POTUS is in trouble, his polls are bad overall and in the rust belt States, the arch liberal media has been out to get him since 2016 and NOW it has been published that he pays little in Federal Taxes due to his high debts, in other words he can write them off as a negative and pay less.   The first Presidential Debate is tomorrow, 2am in the UK, it will be worth staying up for, as long as Biden does not fall over and look like he can say a sentence he will win the debate, the press will give him pass and he should win the general election in November, however much Trump tries to give the impression that he will not give up, the Republican Party will not allow him to squat in the Oval Office.   The one Ace that Trump has is the nomination for the Supreme Court, if his nominee is successful he will placed three Justice on the Court, as the article make clear, the last President to do that was Reagan.  But and this is a big but, if he wins then voters will free to vote for Biden, they will have the Court, that is their prize.

Internal Market Bill - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " Michael Gove has said parts of a bill which override provisions in the Brexit deal agreed with the EU would remain, despite EU requests to remove them.  "

Lets Get Real:

These next two weeks have been called crucial if the UK is to do a DEAL with the EU, the UK can not look weak, the Conservative Government can not shelve the Internal Market Bill, that would like weakness and giving in to the EU.  What the PM can do is stall sending the Bill to the House of Lords, it can be expected their Lordships will oppose the Bill, thus cause damage to the trade talks, the UK Government has to be seen as following through, and to use their Conservative Majority to get the Bill through the House of needed and force it through the House of Lords with the Parliamentary Act of 1949, that makes sure that the the House of Commons has the final say.   The EU has to be see that PM Boris means business.


Friday, September 25, 2020

Positive Noise from UK/EU Trade talks - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase

Daily Mail: Reports " Are the UK and EU inching towards a post-Brexit trade deal? Optimism grows after Downing Street welcomes 'useful exchanges' while Brussels says 'the tide is turning' "

Lets Get Real:

This could be No 10 setting a path for a NO DEAL BREXIT and blaming the EU for not giving enough concessions.  On the other hand the UK might give concessions, such on our fish but argue  that the rest of the concessions work for the UK over all.  The next meeting of the two sides is next week, we should also recall that the PM has set a deadline of the 15th of October for a deal to be made, otherwise the UK will walk away from the talks.  As all the action is on the COVID - 19 side the press have let the talks go on without much leaks from the talks, as we get close to the deadline expect more press to look at the talks and seek leaks.   The outcome of the talks could decide the future of the UK.



Will there be a UK/EU Trade Deal ? - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " "On technical issues we're 90% there," was the upbeat assessment of EU-UK trade talks by a well-informed EU diplomat on Friday. " "

Lets Get Real:

As the article notes the LAST 10% is political, it could go either way, the question is who will blink first.  The EU side see a weak PM, faced with COVID - 19 and rebels on his own side and thus assume that he will take any DEAL.   That would be a BAD assumption, the PM won the 2019 general election on the voters trusting him on Brexit, if the PM states that the EU is not playing fair and a deal is off they will take his view over the EU and the hard press Remain in the UK.  Next week could be make or break, an official meeting in Brussels takes place, who put the white flag up first, who will bend, who will not break.  Interesting.

Thursday, September 24, 2020

After Furlough - Covid - 19 - Health/Economy

BBC News: Report that the Chancellor has stated the following, " "I cannot save every business, I cannot save every job."  "

Lets Get Real:

The Chancellor has been very HONEST, he can not save every business and every job, the new economic package reduces how much the Government spends on helping business, the onus is on business to pay to keep their employees.  On a basic level wage, the employee will get around 77% of his or her wages, the majority coming from the employer while the Government pays around 22%, in essence 77% of wages, the rest will go unpaid.  It seems that the TUC and the CBI support the move, as a Conservative this blog supports the new package, the furlough could not be extended, it would bankrupt the Country.  The question is how many millions will be placed on the dole?  It could be millions, it's a cost the Country will have to pay.  One can only hope that a vaccine is developed before the end of the year or just at the start of January.

 

The LAST CORBYN supporters resign from the Labour Front Bench - 2024 General Election


Lets Get Real:

As this blog and others have noticed, the new Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer actually wants a chance of winning the 2024 General Election, thus he ordered his MPs to abstain when confronted with a new bill from the Government that would protect our Armed Forces Personnel from unwanted Court action by those on the left or just after a quick money fix.   This could be a problem for the Labour Leader in the future, the Conservatives will claim later that Starmer has allowed his former role as Director of public prosecution to cloud his judgement, they will argue that our Troops need to be protected and that Starmer was not there when it counted.  Thus the LEFT will be annoyed with the action that Starmer has taken but it might not be enough to secure the support of former Labour voters.

What HAPPENS after the UK's Furlough Scheme comes to end - COVID - 19 Update - Health/Economy

BBC News: Reports " Chancellor Rishi Sunak is to make an announcement on Thursday about what happens after the furlough scheme expires at the end of October.  "

Lets Get Real:

It can be argued that the Conservative Government has come under extreme pressure to have another economic recovery plan due to the introduction of new restrictions due to COVID - 19, like the closure of pubs and restaurants.  Those industries such as pubs need people to go out, the introduction of a leisure curfew will mean that some pubs and restaurants will go to the WALL as they will not be able to cope for six months with the restrictions.  Lady Thatcher it can be argued would have taken a tougher line, her Government cut Government spending in the 1980s, there were riots but Lady T kept her nerve and did not bend.   It has to be stated that the Labour Leader Sir Keir Starmer is starting to look like a future PM, problem is that he has to wait in till 2024, a  week is a long time in politics.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

North Wales take a hit for reckless SOUTH WALES - COVID - 19 Update 3 - Health/Econom

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.18 pm post the following, " Pubs, cafes and restaurants in Wales will have to close at 10pm, the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, announced this evening.  "

Lets Get Real:

It seems highly unfair that North Wales has to take the brunt of pubs, cafes closing down because of the reckless action of those in South Wales.  One is somewhat shocked that North Wales Assemly membes and MPs have not pointed out that it is unfair, North Wales has followed the rules and the payback, we lose our leasure activities.   If the Welsh Government wanted to be firm it should have CLOSED DOWN South Wales, but of course the Labour Party is afraid of doing that because that is the base of its support, thus everyone else has to pay the price.  NOT FAIR on NORTH Wales.

How long will the new restrictions LAST ? - Covid - 19 - Update 2 - Health/Economy


Lets Get Real:

In essence the PM is telling the voter, you have to behave or Christmas festive fun is CANCELLED, that will not go down well in the red wall seats.  One has to ask, should we have followed Sweden, no restrictions and they are not falling apart, they must think that the UK and the rest of Europe has gone nuts.   This blog did ask at the start, should we just allow it to happen, no restrictions, even the Spanish Flu died out after 1918, sometimes acts of nature or God, as just their will, and there is nothing man or Doctors can do about it.  It is a question to think about!

New COVID - 19 restrictions in England and Scotland - Update 1 - Economy/Health


Lets Get Real:

This is not a full lockdown as expected by some, it limits pubs etc to closing at 10pm, all that will do is make people who want a drink go out a few yours earlier or drink at home with friends.   There are limits as to how far you can restrict the British people, what happens if the new restrictions do not work and you have to use more heavy restrictions and fines.  One does wonder how the UK Government coped with the Spanish Flu of 1918, and they had a WAR to finish.  One does hope the boffins are right that such restrictions are needed, also one has to hope that the boffins get develop a vaccine, otherwise Christmas is cancelled or it will be a miserable one, Oliver Cromwell would have love that ( he cancelled Christmas while Lord Protector ).    As a poet once said and this blog is miss quoting, many miles to walk before a drink!

Thursday, September 17, 2020

How are the UK and EU talks really going ? - Brexit Update 3 - Transitional Phase



Lets Get Real:

While everyone is watching the House of Commons and the House of Lords the real fighting is at the UK/EU talks, thus far the EU has not walked away, thus there must be some chance of a deal.  The PM has gone in heavy with his Internal Market Bill, that might be enough to push the EU to make concessions, enough for the Brexit supporters to declare a victory and move on.  One really doe not understand why the EU is playing hardball, neither side is reality is going to break the Good Friday Agreement, its just war by words, the UK it can be argued should be able to find the right words to solve this problem!!



Internal Market Bill - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

Sky News really has become HARD REMAIN CENTRAL, there is breaking internatioanl law and breaking international law, the PM did not invade Poland as far as this blog knows, those harping on about it, are lawyers, who happen to be MPs, The Conservatives should think about limiting the number of lawyers that can become Conservative MPs, Countries first not their legal careers!!  The PM has given a concession, thus this expects ALL Conservative MPs to vote for the Internal Market Bill, if those MPs should lose the WHIP, and their local chairman/women should be informed that the MP is no longer a Conservative and can not stand as at the next election.

The Internal Market Bill and the House of Lords - Brexit 1 Update - Transitional Phase

 BBC News: Reports " Government plans to amend a controversial bill that overrides sections of the Brexit divorce deal have been rejected by former Tory leader Lord Howard.  "

Lets Get Real:

With the new compromise with the moderates in the House of Commons the Internal Market Bill should go to the House of Lords with a  good majority.  If the Lords refuse to play ball then PM should nominiate a 100 Brexit supporters to the benches, or how many it takes to remind the House of Lords of its place.  If the House of Commons is happy with the bill and is support the PM the House of Lords will have to move, of course it could be time to replace the House of Lords, the great British people will not cry if they are abolished.   Their Lordships get a heavy amount for turning up, well if the accept the money they should play ball. 


Tuesday, September 15, 2020

Internal Market Bill - Brexit Update 4 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

This could be a good solution out to allow those to who oppose the UK breaking international law, to support the Government's bill while stating that they will have the final say.  It really depends how the Chief Whip reads the House of Commons and his fellow MPs and how many he can not not force to change their minds, the PM has the power to remove the whip from those that do not follow the Party line, that would mean that those MPs could no longer stand as Conservative MPs at the next election.  It is a drastic move but its a power that the PM has, interesting week ahead in the House of Commons.

Internal Market Bill and the House of Lords - Brexit Update 3 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

The next problem for the Internal Market Bill will be next week when a Amendment till tie the Government to coming back to the House of Commons before a Minister can overrule the withdrawal agreement, but even then the Government might be able to push it through due to its big majority.  In the House of Lords the Government can use the Parliament Act of 1949, that states after a bit a tussle that House of Commons has the final say on ALL ACTS that it wants, their Lordships can be overruled.  One does hope by next week that Boris get a deal with the EU, it would be a shock for the UK to break international law.

Historic Change in the Middle East - US Presidential Election 2020


Lets Get Real:

This is an historic achievement by President Trump and will help with the Middle East, the problem is that POTUS can not keep his mouth shut and is prone to texting on all things, sometimes true, sometimes not.  A more standard President would use the above event to get a 2nd term, but Trump might have sunk his own ship with his rhetoric and his failure over COVID - 19.  All the match up polls show Biden is AHEAD by 7 to 8 points, as long as he doe not mess up in the debates we are looking forward to a first Biden Administration.  One doubts that the World can cope with a 2nd Trump term.

Internal Market Bill - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

The BBC's Newsnight and Sky have really become HARD REMAINERS centre, they go about international law, what about the Sovereign right of Northern Ireland to be seen as part of the UK, the various Acts of Union makes that clear, the HARD REMAINERS will try anything to thwart BREXIT, even coming up with bogus questions that feed back to their own views on BREXIT, and that being a negative.  The PM is right in forcing his Bill through Parliament, this will show the EU that the UK can not be bullied, that we are not some small nation that must bend the knee in front of the EU.   Good job today by the PM.

Internal Market Bill - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports that the PM's Internal Market Bill has passed its first hurdle, the article states the following, " MPs backed the Internal Market Bill by 340 votes to 263.  "

Lets Get Real:

There are two weeks while the House of Commons and the House of Lords go through the BILL, line by line, if the Government majority tonight is any example, the House of Commons should be the EASY PART.   When all the former PM's came out against the deal and the USUAL remainers popped their heads over the trench to be critical, the blog is supporting the PM.  If the EU are really threatening to blockade food going from the UK to Northern Ireland, then the PM should WALK out of the talks, this is nothing else but blackmail.  The PM should remind the EU, that the UK is a sovereign nation, and that includes Northern Ireland.   One does hope that the EU has learned the lesson, that the UK will do what it takes to secure the Union and the EU can go to hell or Brussels, same place in many respects. 

Wednesday, September 09, 2020

UK Law over Euro Law - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

At the end of the day, UK LAW should come FIRST over Euro law.  That the EU is angry shows that the PM's strategy might be working, force them to give concessions on the trade front, in less they want the Government to override Euro law.   The job of the PM is safeguard the UNION, and that means that he has to to whatever it takes to secure the union, from defence to trade.  As for international law, this blog will not be taking advice from the Labour Party after Iraq.  The usual hard remainers were on BBC News and Sky News, no wonder the public do not trust the media!!  One does wish that these channels looked after UK interest first not the other side.

PM comes out fighting for his Internal Markets Bill - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

This could be the PM trying to force the EU to give what the UK wants in trade talks, on the one hand show something shinning, the Internal Markets Bill and then on the other hand show the EU representatives that the UK is not going to back down and that the EU must give way.  The usual HARD REMAINERS have appeared on the TV, with their usual support of the EU against the UK.  One can only hope that Conservative MPs remain united and the example of what happened to the last remainers in the last Parliament will be on their minds, they were thrown out of the Conservative Party and LOST their seats. 

Tuesday, September 08, 2020

This is the Week for an agreement between the UK and the EU - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

This blog thinks the most important development today was the fact that the PM has stated that a deal has to be done by October 15th otherwise the UK will leave on a NO DEAL BREXIT, or Australian terms as stated by the PM.  Thus the EU NOW knows that it must deal this week or lose any chance of talks.  There were reports that the President of the EU would stand down the Brussels head of the EU delegation and that the EU leaders would take over, the EU President must act quickly or they could lose a trade deal with the UK. The date for that was September 16, the EU might not have the time they think, this is not the May Government and PM Johnson's might not give the time the EU wants, the starting gun has gone off, let's see who blinks first.

What the UK wants from the EU ? - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

The UK has to be FIRM with the EU, the EU is trying to treat the UK like a former colony, we might be a lot of things, but we are not a colony of the EU.  The two main sticking points are fish in our waters and and a level playing field, that means that the EU would have a say on UK supporting business after the COVID - 19 pandemic.  The UK is a Sovereign State, our waters and thus our fish, that is not open for debate, while a sovereign has a say on what business it supports.   These endless talks are going nowhere, time to cut bait and to tell the EU, that we are going for a NO DEAL BREXIT, also that the EU will get half of the promised divorce bill.  The German tax paper will not be happy if it has to support the other weak nations of the EU.  MONEY TALKS.

Monday, September 07, 2020

Clarification on the new bill on the Brexit Deal - Brexit Update 3 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

It will be interesting to see tomorrow the new additional clarification to the Brexit withdrawal bill, will it be MINOR  and LIMITED TO CLARIFICATIONS of the agreed deal or will it blow up the deal.  If the EU delegation walks out of the expected meeting then the clarification is nor minor, we shall also see what the Irish Republic think of the new bill, they are most affected by the new bill.  If the EU does walk out then the UK can go for a straight NO DEAL BREXIT, and cut giving any money to the EU to pay for the retirement  schemes for former Euro officials.  It has been postulated that the UK could cut the divorce bill in half, the returning money could be used to look after the elderly in the future and to help with the COVID - 19 costs.  On a whole a NO DEAL BREXIT looks good to this blog.

EU and Ireland stunned by new override of the Withdrawal Agreement - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

No 10 has really placed a cat among the pigeons, the HARD REMAINERS want to keep close to the EU, thus this morning's news was full that the UK was about to override the Withdrawal Agreement, No 10 has come back and stated that the changes are minor limited clarifications.   The EU and Dublin has blow a casket and are expecting the WORSE, it almost make you want to believe the Government will do something drastic, just to show the EU who has all the Aces in this relationship.  One can expect the BBC, Sky News, Guardian, The Times, even the Daily Mail to be worried, the Mail has a new editor, ( he is pro remain ).   One waits to see how the EU reacts tomorrow when the bill is published.

15th October DEADLINE for Brexit Talks and limited clarifications for Withdrawal Agreement - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase

BBC News: Reports " The government will introduce a new law that could change post-Brexit customs plans with the EU - but No 10 denied it would "tear up" the existing treaty.  "

Lets Get Real:

Already the REMAINERS at the BBC News AND Sky News are in a flap over the withdrawal agreement, they ran with the story that the the UK Government was about to overwrite the withdrawal agreement deal, the actual truth is that the Government is simple going to do minor limited clarifications to the WA.  The main worry for the HARD REMAINERS should be the deadline set by the PM, the EU has to deal by the 15th of October or the UK is OUT as of the December 31st 2020.  The PM has been clear, a no deal Brexit is better than a BAD DEAL.  Let's see how the EU reacts tomorrow to the bill bought by the Government.  In this view of this blog, the UK Government has given the EU to much time, thus their view that the UK will fold, this is not the May Government.

Friday, September 04, 2020

Our Fish and Our Waters - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

The talks between the UK and the EU is becoming a FARCE, the EU still thinks it has the best cards, WRONG, there is a new Government in the UK and PM May is gone back to the backbenches.   The EU has to learn, its UK waters and our bloody fish, if they want concessions from us they need to give us what we WANT, and that is not open to debate.  The UK decides on our fish and how much support we give to industry, if the EU does not like it they can jump off the white cliffs of Dover.   The EU has to learn that a members has LEFT THEM, and we can always refuse to give the divorce money to the EU, let's see how long the EU stands with Barnier, they need our money and the Germans do not wan to pay more in to the EU. 

Did POTUS call American Dead due to War " LOSERS " ? - US Presidential Election


Lets Get Real:

The US Presidential Election has gone dirty and fast, the trouble with the above alleged quotes is that it sounds like TRUMP, the fact that Trump has to say deny saying these words show that he knows that this could be the final nail in his political coffin.  The American people honour its dead soldiers, and the thought that the above could be true would make JFK and Reagan turn in their graves.  It says something about the US, that you have a racist narcissist on one side and a slowly losing it candidate on other, it can be argued that the US voter wants another Reagan and and has ended up with these two candidates, sad say for the US.

Haulage Firms and Brexit - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

With anything new, there will be problems, so the haulage firms will have to get the paperwork done when the process is completed.  Thus far the UK and the EU does not have a DEAL, thus we are waiting to see who blinks first, the PM has the support of the UK voter in 2016 and 2019 and there is nothing like blaming the French and Germans if there is NO DEAL.  It won't be new to the voter.  It looks like we have passed the first wave of COVID - 19, the question is will we get a 2nd wave during the winter and what will the costs to the economy with double whammy of Brexit and COVID - 19.   This blog thinks we will do a deal with the EU, a bare bones deal, let's see what LONDON and BRUSSELS come up with, will fear force them to move.

Thursday, September 03, 2020

UK must make concessions or NO DEAL BREXIT - EU - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

The EU is getting worried that the UK means what it says, it seems the 2016 vote and the general election of 2019 did not reach Brussels.  The Government will not make any more concessions without losing support at home.  The UK fish in British waters are UK fish and should be collected by UK fishermen, well the majority of them.  Also the UK Government is the final decider on what sectors gain UK government funding.  The PM should make it clear to the EU, that the UK will not move, its up to the EU to move or some of the smaller countries in the EU to place pressure on Germany and France to make concessions.  These endless talks are becoming a farce.

Tuesday, September 01, 2020

Crunch Talks Between the UK and the EU - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

In essence the French want a VETO over how the UK Government spends it money to support business, also it wants OUR FISH.  The PM should pull the plug on these talks and BLAME the French, the UK voter has not much love for the French, they still do not understand how to make a cup of tea, one would think after two world wars, were the UK has come to their rescue that they would have learned some basics about the British, one being tea and the other being we do not like threats from over the English Channel.   The EU has to understand we LEFT the EU, and we want our WATER and FISH back, we do not like demands from the EU, or in this case the Paris.   Berlin really needs to muzzle Paris, otherwise their economy will falter.