Brexit finally Finished - Deal between UK Government and the DUP over Northern Ireland - BREXIT

BBC News: Reports "  DUP deal aimed at restoring power sharing in Northern Ireland is published.. A deal between the UK government and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will reduce checks and paperwork on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus Brexit is finally done, no goods going from the Great Britain to Northern Ireland will be checked, finally after years of argument and political standstill in Northern Ireland they will have their own Government, there will be a nationalist First Minister and a Unionist Deputy First Minister, they have equal power, if the people of Northern Ireland want to be part of the Republic, they can vote for it, its called Democracy.  To think over the number of UK PM's we have gone through since 2016, we shall have a new one when Sir Keir Starmer wins the next general election in the UK, this year or early 2025. 

How the Irish won their Independence, beating the Black and Tans at Rugby - Joe Biden - US Presidential Election 2024

Guardian: Reports " Joe Biden confuses All Blacks with Black and Tans during Ireland trip.....White House edits transcript after US president referred to military force rather than New Zealand rugby team  "

Lets Get Real:

This should make Democrats have a serious chat if they want to defend this kind of mistakes over the next five and half years.  As the Guardian notes in the article, the gaff did not cause a diplomatic incident in Ireland, what if Biden had made the mistake in Belfast.  Also the Black and Tans has  a lot of WELSH TROOPS as part of their membership, could have caused an incident.   It is best to leave the past in the PAST.  The above mistake in the future could cause WW3, the Ukraine is brewing for the Ukraine offensive in the spring, also China could invade Taiwan at any minute.   The Oval needs a POTUS who doe not have these problems, Biden is no Reagan. 

Biden supports The Good Friday Agreemeny -- Biden Era

Sky News/BBC News/GB News: Reports on Biden' Speech in support of the Northen Ireland Assembly.

Let's Get Real:

The visit to the province was shorter than expected, as the Assembly was meant to be in session by now, the DUP are the hold outs!!  POTUS will spend most of his time in the Republic, locking down the Irish vote for 24 and meeting long distance family.    On the whole a good picture opportunity for the White House.

DUP a NO on the Windsor Framework - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: DUP to vote against government over Windsor framework....Jeffrey Donaldson confirms unionist party will oppose Sunak plan for Northern Ireland in this week’s vote  "

Lets Get Real:

The DUP are very hard to please, they will vote against part of the deal that allows them to block future EU regulation, they want to say No to past rules, they seem unable to accept that they won, that goes for the ERG too, it has been reported that Boris will not support the Government on this issue, Boris has dreams of coming back as leader of the Conservative Opposition should PM Sunak lose the 2024 general election.  The former PM will be lucky if he is found not guilty of not telling the truth  to the House and suspended, its is reported that the PM will Conservative MPs a free vote on the issue, with the Opposition supporting the decision and most Conservatives voting against him, Boris could find himself suspended from the House and face a recall election.   Thus more internal civil wars in the Conservative Party from Brexit to Boris, its never boring in UK politics.  The UK might like a boring Sir Keir in charge, be careful for what you wish for voters. 

The DUP and Sunak's Brexit Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV News ) reports that the DUP is to set up a consultation panel to discuss the Windsor Framework.

Let's Get Real

The DUP is split, the House of  Commons members want to refuse the Deal, the leader seems more inclined to support the Deal, while Assembly members want to return to government, even if the First Minister will be a nationalist.  The 1st time in a 100 years. 

The consultation panel will allow for very frank discussions.   The DUP will take its time over this important issue.   The UK has built up the deal, the DUP will want some guarantees, over the Assembly block on legislation from the EU, that will mean some back room deals.  POTUS might find on his planned visit that's Assembly and Government will not have been reformed in the province, Oval will not be happy, no pics for the re-election in 2024.

The process will take time, the sides need to come together on their own free will, peace takes time, better than war - war.

UK to give legal assurance on N. Ireland's place in the UK - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports that the UK is to give a legal assurance on N. Ireland's place in the UK.

Let's Get Real:

It seems from the article that the DUP leadership needs something extra to give to its members.  It is reported that the House of Commons MPs want to stay out of the Assembly, while Assembly members want to go back.

The UK could call fresh elections to give the people a CHOICE, those Election results should send a clear message to the leaders in the province, that could clear the log jam, or revise the Good Friday Agreement, as to prevent any party having a VETO on the formation of Assembly and government.  That could force the hand of the DUP.  The Windsor Framework is the best deal going at present, the DUP should take a victory.

Former PM Boris SPEAKS about Windsor Framework- After Boris / After Brexit

Sky News reports that former PM Boris Johnson has stated he would find it difficult to vote for Sunak's Windsor Framework.

Let's Get Real

Boris has taken him time, perhaps to much, there are no signs of a massive rebellion in Conservative ranks, the DUP is split, one faction wants to stay out of the Assembly, while another wants to go back in to government.   If there is rebellion it could be very small, the Labour Party has stated it will support the government if there is a vote in the House of Commons.  Also  Northern Ireland will be run from London, as both the nationalists and the unionist are required to form a government in the province.

If the DUP say no, then the whole process has been a waste of time,  there will be no Presidential visit on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, no trade deal, and Sunak might need to seek an improved deal.  The EU will not be happy.   

Thus Sunak in the 2024 general election will be a weak candidate and the Good Friday Agreement might need to be revised, stopping the DUP from pulling this stunt, that could lead to the troubles coming back.

PM Sunak in Northern Ireland to sell his NEW BREXIT DEAL - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 12.52pm post the following, " PM arrives for meetings with NI political parties.....The meetings are being held at a County Antrim hotel as the PM seeks support for his new agreement with the EU, aimed at reducing post-Brexit trade problems in Northern Ireland.  "

Thus far the DUP have not said NO, so far the ERG in the House of Commons has kept its viewpoints to itself, how long before the knifes come out for the agreement and who will go first, it can postulated that the DUP might be split about the Windsor Framework, the leader seems almost want to say YES, but he does not want to split the Party.   Former PM Boris has been very quiet, he has gone well under the radar, the ERG is meeting tonight after the PM meets the 1922 Committee, will they go their own way or follow the DUP.  The DEAL stands or falls on what the DUP say, the UK Government, the Biden Administration want the DUP to go back in to the Assembly, the question is will they, it hard to call this one, the DUP and the ERG lawyers will go through the various documents for the FRAMEWORK, we wait with a hope of success but knowing that North Ireland is a tough nut to crack even given the best will in the World. 

Brexit Deal Agreed - After Boris/After Brexit

Daily Mail ( on line ) reports that a new Brexit Deal has been agreed between the UK and the EU.

Let's Get Real:

Thus we await the detailed legal documents, there are reports that the DUP accepts the deal, let's wait in till we hear from the PM in the House of Commons at 6.30pm.  One assumes that the DUP will take its time, also the ERG, they will have the lawyers in, go through every word.   Don't hold your breath for the DUP they will want to give the impression that they have taken their time, politics is politics after all, in May there are Council elections, thus the DUP will want them to happen first before returning to Government if they support the DEAL.

Who invited the EU President to meet the King? - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports in its 12.27 post that No 10 stated it was up to the King who he invited for tea, the PM merely adviced the Monarch on the idea.

Let's Get Real:

The King is following the advice of his PM, No 10 wants to use everything it has to get Brexit Deal over the line.  Thus we wait what the DUP says and the ERG, the ERG will follow the DUP line.   The NEW DEAL as known will have a green lane, goods going to the province will not be checked, while a red lane will be goods going to the EU will be checked.  A limited role for the European Court of Justice, any issues from the deal will have different levels of judgement before ECJ, also the Belfast Assembly will have a say.  LONG DAY AHEAD! 

EU President to meet King Charles - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News ( TV ) reports that the EU President is to meet King Charles after Brexit talks with PM.

Let's Get Real:

The PM wants to use the King's meeting as to show Royal Approval for the new BREXIT DEAL, thus place pressure on the DUP and the ERG.  It has been reported by Buckingham Palace that the meeting is at the request of the Government.  Thus is a wise move by the King, in case Sunak has produced a dud.   As Sky News reports the PM will give a speech to the House of Commons at 6.30pm, it will be interesting to see the atmosphere of the House, the devil is in the details.

EU President to come to the UK tomorrow, New Northern Ireland Protocol on the Cards - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: Ursula von der Leyen to travel to UK for talks with Rishi Sunak  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus it looks a like there is a deal between the EU and the UK over a new Northern Ireland Protocol, the problems will come when the DUP and the lawyers of the ERG go through the protocol line by line.  The PM does not need a HOUSE OF COMMONS vote but there would be hell to pay if the PM does not have one, also the Labour Party has stated it will support any deal, to they look they are not playing political games, of course they playing games, it will be the Labour Party that saves the political bacon of Sunk if the new deal passes with Labour Votes.  Thus the political fun starts for us political geeks, depending on how the DEAL is sold, we could have a few Cabinet resignations and calls for Sunak to resign or face a leadership contest, fun time and Brexit has come again. 

Three line WHIP or Civil War within the Conservative Party over the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Boris/After Brexit

Sunday Mail: Reports " Furious Tory MPs warn Rishi Sunak not to try to 'bounce' them into backing his new EU Brexit deal on Northern Ireland amid threats of party 'civil war' - as PM takes aim at Boris Johnson by saying agreement will finally 'get the job done' "

Lets Get Real:

This is either a NEW DAWN in the history of Northern Ireland or we are back in to the civil war that is BREXIT, whatever deal that has been agreed by the PM and EU, it must get the backing of the DUP.  Otherwise the PM will be seen as a sell out to the Union Cause.  Either the UK is sovereign in the province or it is the EU.  A distant ECJ might not go down well with the ERG or the DUP.  These endless Brexit debates must stop, it might need for a Labour Government to solve the problem, they will not care what the DUP thinks or the the ERG.   In many respects the PM is on a hiding to nothing, someone down the line will not be happy, the hope that Sunak must have is that it will a be small majority in opposition.  Thus the curtain will come down on Monday or we will have a civil war in the Conservative Party ALL over again and Boris might become PM again, you never know.

A New Brexit DEAL CLOSE - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " Northern Ireland Protocol: UK on 'cusp' of new Brexit deal, says Dominic Raab "

Lets Get Real:

It seems that Monday will be Brexit DAY all over again, Conservative MPs have  been given a three line whip to turn up Monday, its is expected that the PM will announce a NEW NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL DEAL.  The framework from leaks is that there will be a green lane for goods only going to the province and RED lane  for those going to the Republic. The European Court will have a limited role, any legal problems will go through the UK Courts first and then the ECJ.   The final verdict on the new DEAL will be the DUP and the ERG, it could decide how long Sunak has in No 10.  The DEAL looks acceptable to this blogger, but the devil is in the details, so Monday should be the BIG DAY, we await with some cynicism, EU has bought down 3 PM's, could Sunak be the fourth.

Brexit Update - After Brexit/After Boris

Brexit was meant to be a done deal by this Tuesday, then Boris Johnson threw a wrench in!! Over the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill.

Daily Mail ( on line ) reports that Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary has warned the PM about selling out to the EU.

Let's Get Real:

PM Sunak can not afford to lose his backbench MP's and have Cabinet resignations.  That would be the end of him, as happened to PM's May, Johnson, Truss, therefore the PM must come back with a clear win from EU talks, the DUP must be squared, thus keep his own MP's happy.

The PM has less than two years to the next election, Labour have a 18 point lead in the polls, thus the PM needs tax cuts and a UNITED Conservative Party, that means getting his BREXIT MP's on the same page as him.   There is still time for Sunak to prevent another 1997 type loss, the ICEBERG is the EU and the Northern Ireland Protocol. A week is a long time in politics!!!

Threat to the NEW DEAL over the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Brexit/ After Boris

Guardian: Reports " Rishi Sunak warned more than 100 Tory MPs could rebel over NI Protocol deal.....PM’s efforts at breaking Brexit deadlock could be scuppered by hardliners in his party as Boris Johnson urges tougher stance  "

Lets Get Real:

Will the Brexit debate ever end, will the debate about Northern Ireland Protocol ever go away, this blog will wait to see if there is a new DEAL and what is in it, before stating a viewpoint on the DEAL.  As reported there is a green lane, for goods going to Northern Ireland and a red lane for goods going to the Republic.  It seems everyone can agree on that, the major problem is the European Court of Justice, it will be up to the DUP to decide if the NEW DEAL they can support and get back into the Northern Ireland Assembly, if the DUP say YES, that means they can get behind the DEAL, in the DUP seven points the ECJ does not come up, it seems from reports that there will be different levels before the ECJ would decide on TRADE MATTERS.  The European Research Group has a major problem with the ECJ having any say in the Northern Ireland, thus the threat of a major revolt.  The PM has to remember that the needs them for the rest of the year before the election in 2024, if the DUP have a problem and the ERG have a problem, it would be better to carry on with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, this will remove any problems between the UK and Northern Ireland, that is really annoying the EU, tough luck, the PM should follow the advice of Boris, show the EU that they have to bend, or they lose the lot.  

EU talks down DEAL on NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL - After Brexit/After Boris

Brexit forever!

BBC News: Reports " NI Protocol: EU talks down reports of compromise deal on European court.....Officials in Brussels have dismissed fresh claims of a compromise deal on the European Court of Justice's (ECJ) role in the Northern Ireland Protocol.  "

Lets Get Real:

It is has been officially denied that there is a DEAL on the protocol, thus that means that a DEAL is close, you always KNOW something is true when it has been denied ( Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister ).  The real question is will the ERG in the House of Commons accept the new deal, they are lead by the DUP from Northern Ireland.  Any new DEAL must allow the transfer of goods from mainland to the province with no custom checks, that seems to have been agreed, while goods going to the Republic will have to go through the normal customs process in a different lane.  Thus will DUP accept a WIN, the UK gives role for the European Court if requested by North Ireland Judges, that seems like a good deal for the DUP, the question will they take YES as answer.  Thus it makes sure the province is part of the UK, but also the benefits of being in the EU.  The BIG QUESTION is will the DUP agree to go back in to Government, if they say YES, then the Biden Oval will be happy to visit to on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, if they refuse, the Biden will not come, a pit pointless.  Also the Biden Oval should keep out of the process, the Biden Oval is seen as to pro Republic also their special advisor, from the Kennedy clan, so that would not be a good idea.   It will be an interesting few days!!

The Sunak Cabinet - The Return of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News: Reports on the return of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary after she supported Sunak in the Conservative Leadership Contest, " She resigned just days ago from the role after a security breach, when she sent a government document to someone not authorised to receive it....She endorsed Mr Sunak to be the new leader two days ago, a move seen as a massive boost for his campaign  "

Lets Get Real:

The sending back to the Home Office of Suella Braverman will please the right wing of the Party, it shows that the Sunak Government will be tough when it comes to migration.  It reported that few days before she was forced to resign from the Truss Government she had a 90 minute row with the then PM over migration.  Braverman wants to send those that come to the UK in a illegal manner to Rwanda , the left, well BBC News, Guardian, Channel 4 News hate this policy, they will be keeping a close eye on the new Home Secretary, they will be after her to make another mistake.  It should be noted that Sunak voted to leave the EU, and promised during his campaign against PM Truss to get EU laws of the UK books.  It should be noted that the European Research Group, the right wing of the Party will be keeping the expensive shoes of the PM to the fire over the Northern Ireland Protocol, also the DUP.  The watch word for the new Sunak Government is Unity, thus a lot of former Ministers are going back to their former Departments. Let's judge the Sunak Government by its actions. 

Brexit Update - After Brexit/After Boris - Liz Truss Era

Daily Mail: Reports " EU's Brexit chief Maros Sefcovic claims Northern Ireland border checks could be reduced to a 'couple of lorries a day' as he bids to end Protocol row with offer to new PM Liz Truss  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus finally the EU is coming around, this shows if you are tough with the EU they will back off, if you are weak they will walk all over you.  The PM should consider the above offer, but make sure that only couple a lorries a day, is one or two, no more than that, the EU might being tricky, we a agree the deal and they go back on their word.  Thus any new agreement has to be agreed in writing and signed off by the EU, those on the ground would have to follow the rules.  If the EU is just playing games, then the PM should follow through the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill and wait the EU out.  Also the DUP has to agree to the deal, it is the only way that the DUP will go back in to Government in the province with the Nationalists Leader.  This shows that the moaning remainers cannot even count on the EU, they have been left on their own. 

Truss and the Northern Ireland Protocol - Conservative Leadership Contest - After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports the following in its 3.41pm post, " Truss highlights Northern Ireland Protocol issue....Although she was confident the House of Lords would respect the mandate for the Protocol Bill, the lengthy legislative process may mean we shouldn’t hold our breath for an early return of Northern Ireland's power-sharing executive.  "

Lets Get Real:

If the Conservative Leadership contest polls are right, then Liz Truss is our next PM, the Foreign Secretary lead the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill through the House of Commons.  It is expected that the Remainers in the House of Lords will try to take apart the Bill and thus forcing the House of Commons to block their rejection.  After a YEAR the Government can use the Parliament Act, that means that the House of Commons can force the changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol through the House of Commons and then Royal Assent.  A Truss premiership should be TOUGH ON EUROPE, the EU thought that Sunak would win and would back off any direct fight with the EU, that plan might not have worked.  The EU has failed to se the basic fact that Northern Ireland is part of the UK not the EU.