Tuesday, May 14, 2019

US military build up in the Middle East - Middle East/Persia - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

This article looks how Iran is different from Iraq in 2003, it shows any WAR would be on  bigger scale, that costs in men and monies would be very high.  Of course the problem with that view is that Reagan was wrong to say that Marxism - Leninism would be placed on the ash heap of history, that the USSR was an Evil Empire and his call for Gorbachev to take down the Berlin Wall in 1987 was the WRONG call.   As history has shown President Reagan was RIGHT, he could see beyond what the elite foreign policy thought about the Cold War.  Thus it might be the very time to HIT Iran, if the Tehran Regime does not back down, and agrees to end its nuclear plans, end its rocket advances, and to stop supporting terrorists groups then it might be the BEST TIME TO HIT IRAN, before it goes nuclear, before it closes down the Persian Gulf.  Also to stop it giving rockets to its terrorists allies in Gaza and Lebanon.   War should be the LAST RESORT, but it should never be OFF THE TABLE, otherwise the BAD GUYS WIN, recall Munich 1938.   The US has to plan for WAR, and a complete WAR with Iran, remove the cancer from the region. 

Mines hit Sabotaged Ships in the Gulf - Middle East/Persia - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

No one with a brain cell wants a WAR, but as appeasement showed in the 1930s sometimes you have to take action before it is to late, if Neville Chamberlain had stood up to Hitler at Munich in 1938 could WAR have been avoided in 1939. What the public will is and what should be done was different in the late 1930s, as we know now, Churchill was right about the threat from Hitler, while the Government and people were WRONG.  After the IRAQ war of 2003-11, and the bombing of Libya to remove Gaddafi the US voter is loathed to take further action in the region, but it is better to take out Iran before it gets the nuclear bomb and becomes like North Korea, than to wait and hope.  Of course before any ACTION happens, the Trump Oval should try a backchannel with the Tehran Regime, to make it clear that this time the US is REAL and if Iran goes down the nuclear road it will face attacks from Israel and even the US.   This is CRISIS is not over, another shoe will drop, just depends when and where. 

Iran's Ambassador to the UK WARNS US - Middle East/Persia - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

The Tehran Regime has to be careful, this looks like Iran is trying to get the upper hand in any PR War before the actual fighting starts.   It will only take as stated an incident in the Strait of Hormuz and the threat to Western economy for the US to start bombing Iran and to remove the Regime.   The threat to Iran is that the US will not stop with a limited WAR, it will want to remove the present Regime, the political order and the religious theocracy would be REMOVED from power, where will the clerics run to, Syria under Assad?  At the moment the West has enough oil for a limited war in the Persian Gulf, a long term war could damage the economies of the West.

It has to be asked, is this a good time to remove the Tehran Regime, it has not gone nuclear yet, the US and its Allies do not want another North Korea, should IRAN get the bomb it would be impossible to remove without heavy fighting and costs.   Thus you have to look at the benefits, remove a thorn is US policy for the past decades, re- shape the Middle East, the negatives, the cost in lives and monies, the balanced decision could decide the fate of the region. 

Latest on US and Iran Tensions - Middle East/Persia - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

The US is playing good cop/bad cop, while the Secretary of State talks diplomacy, the Defence Department has sent a US Carrier to the region, a bomber group, and Trump is talking tough on Iran, when it comes to troops overthrowing the Regime.  The recent sabotage of vessels in the Gulf has caused more tension, any actual fighting will start should Iran or its allies target US interests or close down the Strait of Hormuz, this is the pathway for Western oil, any threat to that small space of water would cause the US to react in a firm manner.  

The TOUGH US sanctions on Iran is causing the economy of IRAN to go down the toilet, the regime might in attempt to divert attention through using its terrorist allies, if the US can prove a link between Tehran and any incident then the Trump Oval will react with overwhelming force, the Oval Office is no longer held by Obama, and Trump likes to do 100% different path of Barack Obama.   The Tehran Regime has to be very careful, it should recall the Iraq War and the end of that Regime and the fall of Gaddafi of Libya, the US has the force to remove despots.