Monday, February 27, 2023

Windsor Framework Update - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.11pm post the following, " Boris Johnson 'reflecting' on Sunak's deal  " - Lets Get Real: Boris is wondering at the political cost of opposing the deal, and will his opposition lead to get No 10 back.  It going to be an interesting few hours and days.

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 8.33pm post the following, " Sir Bill Cash, the high priest of Brexit legalese, challenges the PM on a typically geeky point of law and is fortunate to receive a polite answer from Mr Sunak....More surprisingly, there’s criticism from unexpected quarters, the SDLP’s Column Eastwood and the Alliance Party’s Stephen Farry. So it's not just the DUP who could be problematic for Mr Sunak.  " - Lets Get Real: When it comes to Northern Ireland you are in tricky waters, you have your own MPs to worry about, what the different factions of the DUP are thinking, and those that you thought were on you side take the view that they should be on the opposing side to the DUP.

Guardian: Reports " DUP takes time and withholds judgment on Northern Ireland deal  Lets Get Real: Thus it comes down to the DUP, if the DUP say a big no, then the ERG or a majority of them will say no and the whole process of the UK and EU would have been pointless.  The point is to get the DUP back in to the Assembly otherwise no TRADE DEAL with the US and Biden will not visit the province.  What about bringing in Tony Blair, lets see if he still has his magic touch.  The Good Friday Agreement is his baby, if he wants to see it survive, he might like a chance of bring the sides together.   The problem might not be THE DUP leader, he gives the impression of wanting to say YES, but there are more extreme factions in the DUP, they want to win 100%, not good for politics.  Thus we await the verdict of the DUP.

Lets Get Real:

The problem might be the Good Friday Agreement, it gives either side, the Nationalists and supporters of the Union a VETO on the Assembly.  That is the only way it can work, otherwise the terrorism could restart from both sides,  in the text of the Good Friday Agreement is states that both sections of the communities have to agree or no assembly, if you change it, then the nationalists would have a majority, thus a return to the troubles. This is a hard nut to crack, let's hope the DUP say YES and surprise everyone. 

Main Points of New Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV ) reports the following:

1. Green lane for goods to Northern Ireland.

2. Red lane for goods going the Republic.

3. Assembly Break on new EU rules and legislation. 

4. Northen Ireland like the rest of UK for VAT and Government funding.

5  UK will get the same medicine as the rest of the UK.

Let's Get Real:

This sounds like an excellent deal, also Northern Ireland has access to the EU single market.   One does hope the fine print of the deal matches the rhetoric.  The DUP and the ERG will tell us shortly.  What will Boris say?  The House of Commons awaits! 

Brexit Deal Agreed - After Boris/After Brexit

Daily Mail ( on line ) reports that a new Brexit Deal has been agreed between the UK and the EU.

Let's Get Real:

Thus we await the detailed legal documents, there are reports that the DUP accepts the deal, let's wait in till we hear from the PM in the House of Commons at 6.30pm.  One assumes that the DUP will take its time, also the ERG, they will have the lawyers in, go through every word.   Don't hold your breath for the DUP they will want to give the impression that they have taken their time, politics is politics after all, in May there are Council elections, thus the DUP will want them to happen first before returning to Government if they support the DEAL.

Who invited the EU President to meet the King? - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports in its 12.27 post that No 10 stated it was up to the King who he invited for tea, the PM merely adviced the Monarch on the idea.

Let's Get Real:

The King is following the advice of his PM, No 10 wants to use everything it has to get Brexit Deal over the line.  Thus we wait what the DUP says and the ERG, the ERG will follow the DUP line.   The NEW DEAL as known will have a green lane, goods going to the province will not be checked, while a red lane will be goods going to the EU will be checked.  A limited role for the European Court of Justice, any issues from the deal will have different levels of judgement before ECJ, also the Belfast Assembly will have a say.  LONG DAY AHEAD! 

EU President to meet King Charles - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News ( TV ) reports that the EU President is to meet King Charles after Brexit talks with PM.

Let's Get Real:

The PM wants to use the King's meeting as to show Royal Approval for the new BREXIT DEAL, thus place pressure on the DUP and the ERG.  It has been reported by Buckingham Palace that the meeting is at the request of the Government.  Thus is a wise move by the King, in case Sunak has produced a dud.   As Sky News reports the PM will give a speech to the House of Commons at 6.30pm, it will be interesting to see the atmosphere of the House, the devil is in the details.