European Research Group not sure on the Windsor Framework - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News: Reports " Brexit-backing Tory MPs undecided on Rishi Sunak's Northern Ireland deal vote "

Lets Get Real:

The ERG should do the Conservative Party and the Country a favour by voting for the Belfast Break to future EU rules, but also keeping eye on the Government when it comes to Brexit and EU rules.   The lawyers do what they paid to to, find problems, bit like Doctors, this blog does not like going to the Doctor, thus feels okay, who knows.  Thus you need a lawyer and Doctor when you are in real trouble, this Windsor Framework is not it.  A recent poll has found that the Conservatives have narrowed the Labour Lead to 10 points.  Let's be honest PM Sunak is not Boris, but has a bit more charisma that Sir Keir Starmer.   The Country has of late seen deals with the train and nurses on pay, thus less strikes, the the Country feels better, the ERG MPs should rally to the flag and support the Windsor Framework, give PM Sunak a  chance at the next election.

PM Sunak SPEAKS and the 1922 Committee - After Brexit/After Boris

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 5.58pm post the following, " Rishi Sunak has finished his meeting with the 1922 Committee. As my colleague Aubrey Allegretti reports, afterwards Steve Baker, the Northern Ireland minister, said Tory MPs were supporting the PM with a sense of relief.  "

Lets Get Real:

The problem is not the ordinary Conservative MPs, its those members who are part of the European Research Group and what their lawyers say, and the ERG take the lead from the DUP.  Thus far the DUP have been very quiet, except those on the extreme Party who want purity.  They are in the wrong game for that development, it is what the rest of the DUP think that matters.   The walking out of the Assembly has delivered better polls for the DUP and of course we have the N. Ireland Council elections in May, the DUP might want to wait for them first before going back in to the Assembly if they are minded to go back, otherwise the whole process has been pretty pointless, this could be the last chance for the Assembly.  Thus a lot rides on what the DUP say in the future. 

PM Sunak in Northern Ireland to sell his NEW BREXIT DEAL - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 12.52pm post the following, " PM arrives for meetings with NI political parties.....The meetings are being held at a County Antrim hotel as the PM seeks support for his new agreement with the EU, aimed at reducing post-Brexit trade problems in Northern Ireland.  "

Thus far the DUP have not said NO, so far the ERG in the House of Commons has kept its viewpoints to itself, how long before the knifes come out for the agreement and who will go first, it can postulated that the DUP might be split about the Windsor Framework, the leader seems almost want to say YES, but he does not want to split the Party.   Former PM Boris has been very quiet, he has gone well under the radar, the ERG is meeting tonight after the PM meets the 1922 Committee, will they go their own way or follow the DUP.  The DEAL stands or falls on what the DUP say, the UK Government, the Biden Administration want the DUP to go back in to the Assembly, the question is will they, it hard to call this one, the DUP and the ERG lawyers will go through the various documents for the FRAMEWORK, we wait with a hope of success but knowing that North Ireland is a tough nut to crack even given the best will in the World. 

Main Points of New Deal - After Boris/After Brexit

Sky News ( TV ) reports the following:

1. Green lane for goods to Northern Ireland.

2. Red lane for goods going the Republic.

3. Assembly Break on new EU rules and legislation. 

4. Northen Ireland like the rest of UK for VAT and Government funding.

5  UK will get the same medicine as the rest of the UK.

Let's Get Real:

This sounds like an excellent deal, also Northern Ireland has access to the EU single market.   One does hope the fine print of the deal matches the rhetoric.  The DUP and the ERG will tell us shortly.  What will Boris say?  The House of Commons awaits! 

Who invited the EU President to meet the King? - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports in its 12.27 post that No 10 stated it was up to the King who he invited for tea, the PM merely adviced the Monarch on the idea.

Let's Get Real:

The King is following the advice of his PM, No 10 wants to use everything it has to get Brexit Deal over the line.  Thus we wait what the DUP says and the ERG, the ERG will follow the DUP line.   The NEW DEAL as known will have a green lane, goods going to the province will not be checked, while a red lane will be goods going to the EU will be checked.  A limited role for the European Court of Justice, any issues from the deal will have different levels of judgement before ECJ, also the Belfast Assembly will have a say.  LONG DAY AHEAD! 

EU President to meet King Charles - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News ( TV ) reports that the EU President is to meet King Charles after Brexit talks with PM.

Let's Get Real:

The PM wants to use the King's meeting as to show Royal Approval for the new BREXIT DEAL, thus place pressure on the DUP and the ERG.  It has been reported by Buckingham Palace that the meeting is at the request of the Government.  Thus is a wise move by the King, in case Sunak has produced a dud.   As Sky News reports the PM will give a speech to the House of Commons at 6.30pm, it will be interesting to see the atmosphere of the House, the devil is in the details.

Three line WHIP or Civil War within the Conservative Party over the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Boris/After Brexit

Sunday Mail: Reports " Furious Tory MPs warn Rishi Sunak not to try to 'bounce' them into backing his new EU Brexit deal on Northern Ireland amid threats of party 'civil war' - as PM takes aim at Boris Johnson by saying agreement will finally 'get the job done' "

Lets Get Real:

This is either a NEW DAWN in the history of Northern Ireland or we are back in to the civil war that is BREXIT, whatever deal that has been agreed by the PM and EU, it must get the backing of the DUP.  Otherwise the PM will be seen as a sell out to the Union Cause.  Either the UK is sovereign in the province or it is the EU.  A distant ECJ might not go down well with the ERG or the DUP.  These endless Brexit debates must stop, it might need for a Labour Government to solve the problem, they will not care what the DUP thinks or the the ERG.   In many respects the PM is on a hiding to nothing, someone down the line will not be happy, the hope that Sunak must have is that it will a be small majority in opposition.  Thus the curtain will come down on Monday or we will have a civil war in the Conservative Party ALL over again and Boris might become PM again, you never know.

Threat to the NEW DEAL over the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Brexit/ After Boris

Guardian: Reports " Rishi Sunak warned more than 100 Tory MPs could rebel over NI Protocol deal.....PM’s efforts at breaking Brexit deadlock could be scuppered by hardliners in his party as Boris Johnson urges tougher stance  "

Lets Get Real:

Will the Brexit debate ever end, will the debate about Northern Ireland Protocol ever go away, this blog will wait to see if there is a new DEAL and what is in it, before stating a viewpoint on the DEAL.  As reported there is a green lane, for goods going to Northern Ireland and a red lane for goods going to the Republic.  It seems everyone can agree on that, the major problem is the European Court of Justice, it will be up to the DUP to decide if the NEW DEAL they can support and get back into the Northern Ireland Assembly, if the DUP say YES, that means they can get behind the DEAL, in the DUP seven points the ECJ does not come up, it seems from reports that there will be different levels before the ECJ would decide on TRADE MATTERS.  The European Research Group has a major problem with the ECJ having any say in the Northern Ireland, thus the threat of a major revolt.  The PM has to remember that the needs them for the rest of the year before the election in 2024, if the DUP have a problem and the ERG have a problem, it would be better to carry on with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, this will remove any problems between the UK and Northern Ireland, that is really annoying the EU, tough luck, the PM should follow the advice of Boris, show the EU that they have to bend, or they lose the lot.  

PM Truss does rear - guard PROTECTION - Liz Truss Era

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports in its 2.09pm post the following, " 'She's not going to go easily' - Liz Truss to meet with Euro-sceptic MPs tomorrow....Liz Truss is to meet with the Euro-sceptic European Research Group tomorrow afternoon.  "

Lets Get Real:

The PM is going to the right in the hope they will be more afraid of a REMAINER getting to be the new PM, let's recall the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill is still going through the Lords and also there are signs that Government might get a new deal with the EU after even the Irish said that the Protocol was to hard.  The question is what is more important to the right wing of the Conservative Party, Brexit or getting re-elected next time.  It's time for the PM to start taking teas with the backbench MPs, it has to be done.  The PM should argue that if the Conservative Party get rid of her, the Country will move like it did in 1992 and that lead to the Tony Blair Era and the Conservatives OUT OF POWER for 13 years.  It's time to be extra nice to MPs, appeal for their support based on the fear what Labour would do in power with SNP support, it's time to be put the Country first, and support the leader. 

ERG and the Brexit Deal - After Brexit 2

Sky News: Reports " Brexit: European Research Group of Conservative MPs gives support for EU trade deal...The group's backing for the agreement provides a significant boost for Boris Johnson ahead of a House of Commons vote on the deal. "

Lets Get Real:

This confirms that the ERG will support the Brexit Deal, if they support it, then no real Brexit supporter can vote against it, of course there might be a few remainers still in the Conservative fold.  The real split will be in the Labour Party, there will be remainer MPs who afraid if they vote for the deal they could be ousted by their remain voters, also there might be a few Labour MPs who want a NO DEAL BREXIT, you never know.   How is Jeremy Corbyn going to vote, he has spent most of his life being in opposition to the EU, how about this deal, it will be interesting to see the voting record.  Thus on Friday the UK will be a sovereign nation again, it has taken decades but it will happen at 11 o clock UK time on Thursday, no Parties or drinks due to COVID - 19.

ERG seem to support Brexit Deal - After Brexit

Daily Mail: Reports " Hardliners fall in behind Brexit deal: Boris Johnson appears to win support of Tory Eurosceptics for his EU trade agreement "

Lets Get Real:

One hopes the Daily Mail article correct, it would be good for the Conservatives to face 2021, there are other issues to have a rebellion about, when will the Government lift the tier system, how many people have had to have the vaccine.  The UK economy is in the basked after the virus, the Chancellor will need to open his wallet to support pubs and restaurants who have been forced to close for most of the year.  There are suggestions that the Chancellor will need to rise taxes to pay back for the Government spending, it is then that the MPs will have to keep their nerve, the next election is four years away, take some of the tough medicine NOW and cut taxes closer to the election.  A return to normal of politics, well normal politics after Brexit and the COVID 19 virus.