Monday, June 30, 2008

The Polls and 08 Race

Lets have a look at the polls after the Unity meet between Clinton and Obama.

Gallup: Reports that Obama is ahead of McCain by 5%. In the poll we have the following results, Obama 47% - McCain 42%. This shows I think that the polls that had Obama with over 10% lead over McCain have to be seen as outriders. Also as noted before, a close race does not help Obama, you have to discount about 3%-4% who don't tell the whole truth and say the will vote for Obama but don't at the end of the day.


Rasmussen
: As with Gallup, Rasmussen has Obama ahead by 5%. The poll finds the following, Obama 49% - McCain 44 %. Obama if he is to win, needs to get a bigger margin, a safe margin over 10%. Thus if you get down to a close race, Obama could afford to lose a few points but still win in the long term. This race as has been noted is for Obama to lose, all the building blocks are there for him to win, but he needs to make a good VP choice, Hillary Clinton would help with older women.

The Truth about Obama

Washington Post: This is what the press is really for, looking and digging deep in to a story. In this case looking at the reality on the ground for the 08 race. The Obama Camp faces some very real worry that good people not racists will believe rumours not based on fact. Obama is a christian, he loves his country. My problem with Obama is that he is a politician. He threw his white grandmother under the train to protect his African - American Pastor, my worry would he do the same if the colours had been different, and then he had to throw his pastor under the train. Obam has showed that he will act like a politician, he will take private money to run his campaign, while McCain will take public money. Obama is moving to the centre, thus he has changed mind on his view points that he only had a few months ago, NAFTA etc, Wiretapping, what next Iraq, don't be surprised. Obama is a Liberal, the West can not afford on the job training for POTUS.

Liberals Attack McCain War Record

The Obama Camp is either very good at dirty politics or its not in control of the message. We have General Wesley Clark attacking the military background of McCain. Then Today we have Obama being critical of those in his own Party or from the Republicans who use such negative attacks. The problem for Obama is that the folks could think its a Obama Spin job, Clark could have been on his own but the people think he was doing the dirty work for Obama. If Clark was on the VP list he will be off now, the reaction has not been good for the retired General. The Politico has an interesting article that suggests that while race is a no go area to attack Obama, the war record of McCain also a landmine for Liberals. If your going to attack the military record of McCain you better have been a POW and tortured other wise just shut up.

Obama on Patriotism but no Gipper



Just seen the Obama speech on what American means to him, well folks it was the worse speech I have head from a candidate who wants to be President of the United States of America. It does not work if you place the great Presidents of the United States as worse that Nixon. In this case Abraham Lincoln for his suspension of law and FDR for placement of Japanese Americans in holding areas. The actions of Lincoln and FDR has to bee seen in the context of the time, with Lincoln it was the Civil War, a War to free African - Americans, with FDR it was after Pearl Harbour in 1941. Reagan always stressed the positive about the United States, a Shinning City on a Hill. If you listen to Obama you would get the impression that the USA was a third world country. The Obama Camp has to stop playing to the base, the base wont get you elected, the speech writer for this speech should be sent on Garden Leave, civil service term for the sack. This speech wont get Reagan Democrats.

Also lets get something else clear, the Tyranny of a Empire, how Obama introduced the fight for American Independence against us, yes us in the UK. The UK have the been the best friend the USA has had in Iraq and Afghanistan, and lets not forget WW1 and WW2. Poor show Senator Obama.

Seymour M. Hersh on Iran and the USA

The New Yorker: A article on the covert actions taken by the USA in Iran. Israel Planning for a hit on Iran is not discussed. Read of the Day.