Beto RUNNING in 2020 - Trump Era

Daily Mail: Reports " Beto O'Rourke IS running for president in 2020 and will make his official announcement tomorrow - hot on the heels of his Vanity Fair cover that teased his 'road to the White House' "

Lets Get Real:

The first impression one gets of Beto O'Rourke is that he reminds you of RFK, Bill Clinton or Barack Obama, that this could be 2008 ALL OVER AGAIN.  If your a West Wing fan you will recall Representative Santos vs. Senator Vinick.   The difference is that Beto, he has a catchy name, comes across as a hippie of the 21st Century, he keeps telling us his thought process and tells everyone on social media.   At former Vice - President Joe Biden does not pander like that, he just says sorry for his past mistakes when it comes to policy and his foot in the mouth problem.   Although Beto, it's easier to recall than Barack, LOST in his Texas Senate race, President Obama got elected to the US Senate, he did not spend that much time in the Senate as he was running for the Presidency, one doubts that President Obama could tell you where his Senate Office was, he was NEVER THERE, he was in Iowa or NH.   At the end of the day Beto LOST, also he has free wheeling style as stated in the article, he speeches come when he is talking, did not have a conventional campaign structure, you need that in a Presidential Campaign.   Also has he really be tested, and has his background been researched, you can be sure the Trump Campaign will do a tough research job.  One recalls at the start of the 21st Century that John Edwards was the darling of the US media, all over the magazines and TV news, we all know how that ended, Edwards being found out by the National Enquire.   That came after he was nominated to be to the VP to John Kerry who was running for President in 2004.  New candidates need to be tested or their failings will be found out, look at the Governor of Virginia, the Lt Governor and the Attorney General.  Uber liberal media, fall in love yes, but know who you are falling in love with. 

HRC needs something TO DO!! - Post 2016 Election

Fox News: Reports " Sen. John McCain is blasting Hillary Clinton for penning a memoir so soon after her stunning defeat in the 2016 presidential election while also noting that her problem is “she doesn’t have anything to do.” "

Lets Get Real:

I must admit in advance that supported HRC vs. Donald Trump, the first time this blog has ever supported the Clintons, and was shocked at the result, even if my political gut made me place  a £5 bet on the Donald winning.  Also I have bought the book " What Happened " as my Christmas read.   HRC should think about running for the House in 2018, something for her to do, IF she has any thought of running for the Presidency in 2020 someone needs a quiet word with her, she is a very talented lady, she could do a lot of good work in the House.   The Charity idea might not be a good idea, the Clinton Foundation caused her problems, also people and countries gave money on the idea that HRC would win in 2020, a new charity would not have that problem.  HRC might become a President of a Univeristy, something like that, it would be loss to politics if HRC went quiet. 

Scandal in the Homeland ?

BBC News: Reports that the daughter of Sarah Palin, the Governor of Alaska and the VP to McCain is in the family way. This in a odd way might help McCain, as the daughter is getting married and is keeping the baby, this story will appeal to Social Conservatives one level, if not that impressed by the story itself, also it will show that Palin has to deal with modern issues that in a common factor in the families around the USA.

The Obama Bounce

The Democratic Convention has given Obama a traditional bounce and that's before his speech to the delegates. The Gallup Daily Tracking Poll gives Obama a six point lead over McCain. The Poll finds the following, Obama 48% - McCain 42%. After the Obama speech, here in the UK early Friday morning, Obama should get a few more points. The question is can Obama keep the bounce or will the attacks at the Republican Convention dilute that bounce. It should be noted that the other Daily Tracking Poll has a different result, Rasmussen has a tied race with both Obama and McCain on 47%. Both Gallup and Rasmussen see a bounce for Obama, the range differs, but the question is can Obama keep himself in the news with the Republican Convention on and the latest tensions between the USA and Russia. This will be a very close race, this is just the hype before the trench warfare of a long race. I am worried that Obama has made a mistake with his Convention Speech, he needs less of the Star aspect and more of the politician who listens to the voters.

The Demoocratic Convention and the Polls

It is odd that during the Democratic Convention the polls are so close, you would think with the fawning of the elite media that Obama would be well ahead of McCain. Yesterday Gallup had McCain ahead by two percent, today's Poll has Obama ahead by one percent. The Rasmussen Daily Tracking Poll has McCain ahead by one percent. The Poll finds the following, McCain 47% - Obama 46%. Is Obama not sealing the deal with working class white voters? Is it down to his elite background, the Moses of the 21st Century. Or is it a more negative reason, a reason that should not be in this day and age, the matter of race. It can be argued that to favour McCain over Obama is down to the maverick nature of the Senator or his war record, but it should not be because he is white, lets hope the polls are about character not skin colour.

A WEAK Obama

A hard hitting Ad by McCain on Obama, Obama has a weakness on National Security.

Lieberman for VP ?

Chicago Sun-Times: Robert Novak reports on the idea of Senator Joe Lieberman as VP to McCain. This would be a bold move, two maverick politicians, from the Republican side McCain and from the Democrats Lieberman, it would be bold and would show the Republicans as the real change agents.

That Call

Another great Ad by the McCain Camp using Hillary Clinton as an attack dog on Obama. God you got love politics. I would bet a good fiver that Bill Clinton approves and that Hillary Clinton will try to look like that she is not happy with McCain, but she was right about that 3am Call, who would you trust. Come on Obama give me some fun ads, not very impressed so far Senator.

McCain ahead of Obama

Gallup: Reports on the most unusual poll I have seen in years. The Gallup Tracking Poll has McCain ahead of Obama. The VP news and the Convention does not seem to have helped Obama, Obama better do better over the next couple of days or he could match Senator Kerry and get a negative bounce from his Convention. The Poll finds the following, McCain 46% - Obama 44%. Lets hope the Clintons behave themselves over the next two days. I expect Obama to take the lead after the Convention.

Lieberman for VP ?

The New York Times: William Kristol a Conservative writes in the Liberal New York Times that McCain should pick his friend Senator Lieberman as his VP. This would be a bold move, McCain would become the change agent, Lieberman was the VP to Al Gore in 2000. Lieberman has supported the War in Iraq, this has cost him on the political front, this move would be a great move, it could blow the Obama/Biden ticket out to the water. The question is would McCain dare take such a bold move in the 08 race.

Obama vs Clinton

The New York Times: Reports on the division with the Democratic Party between the the Clinton and Obama supporters. A minority in the Clinton Camp are never going to forgive or vote for Obama, if McCain can get this minority either to vote for him or not to vote then McCain could win the 08 race.

Democrats for McCain

A great Ad by the McCain Camp, shows that McCain has appeal to Democrats. Also meant to show the problems between Obama and Clinton Supporters. A great, fun Ad.

CNN Poll after Biden Pick

CNN Poll: Reports that the Biden pick has not helped Senator Obama. The Poll finds that Obama and McCain are tied at 47%. The Convention is another chance for Obama to seal the deal with white, working class voters, also to retake the lead among older women voters from McCain. The Obama Speech has to hit the ball out of the park, otherwise this will be a very long campaign for the Democrats.

Why Biden ?

The New York Times: Reports on the process that Obama took to select his VP. If Obama should lose it could be down to the fact that Russia invaded Georgia, the change candidate needed a VP with a some National Security background, thus Senator Biden, other wise Obama might have gone with the Governor of Virgina, Tim Kaine. The Change is candidate is now the average politician who will do what it takes to win, if Obama had chosen Kaine of Virgina it would have followed through on his message of change and allowed Obama to be competitive in Virgina. The Russians just might have done McCain a big favour.

Why not Hillary ?

Fox News: Reports that McCain Campaign is going after Senator Obama for not selecting Hillary Clinton as his VP. This could allow Senator McCain to think out side of the box, what about Senator Joe Lieberman as the VP to McCain, this would show that McCain was the change agent not Obama/Biden.

Biden on Obama by McCain

Great Ad by the McCain Campaign, using the words of Biden against Obama as a reason to vote for McCain.

Weekend Polls

Lets have a look at the Tracking Polls before the Democratic Convention and naming of Joe Biden as VP to Obama.

Gallup: Reports a tied race between McCain and Obama. The Tracking Polls find the following, Obama 45% - McCain 44%. The McCain Campaign has predicted that Obama will come out of the Democratic Convention with a 15% lead in the polls. This would be a big bounce, but if Obama gives a great speech and the Liberal Media sticks the script and fawns over him then its in the realm of reality. If Obama gets that swing and keeps it he would win in a landslide, not holding my breath over that result.

Rasmussen: Also finds a tied race, the poll finds the following, Obama 47% - McCain 46%.

Obama on the whole cant break the 50% level,m while McCain is getting to the right side of the 45%. Obama needs a big bounce from the Convention and he needs to keep it for November. Obama has to careful that he does not go to left wing, recent days we have seen the candidates go at each other over who is richer, they are both rich, the difference is and this is important, when you have been a POW in Vietnam you deserve something at the other side, Obama has a thin record on achievement and also he was not a POW in Vietnam and a War Hero.

The well respected RealClearPolitics average of the Polls has Obama leading by 1.4%. In other words a tied race, the Conventions this year could give either candidates a bounce that could place them on the road to victory.

Obama/Biden 08

BBC News: Reports that Joe Biden has been selected to run with Senator Obama. The naming of Obama is meant to negate the weakness of Obama in National Security. The problem on Iraq Biden wanted to split up Iraq in to three provinces, he saw it as a failed state, President Bush was right when it came to Iraq and the surge. The McCain Campaign should start to run Political Ads which shows that Obama has made a mistake, and shows clips of Biden when it comes to Iraq and his wrong solution for that problem. If Georgia had not come up it is interesting would Obama have chosen Biden, would he have not preferred the Governor of Virgina.

McCain leading Obama

Reuters/Zogby: As noted don't do individual polls during the week in less they are different from the norm, this one has McCain ahead of Obama. On the whole in most polls Obama has a slim lead over McCain. The RCP Average of polls has Obama ahead by 1.2%. This Reuters/Zogby Poll has the following result, McCain 46% - Obama 41%. It should be noted that this Poll was taken while Obama way on holiday and McCain had the stage to himself. Thus we have the Convention to come up and also a VP to be named. As Obama and the Democrats go first, one should expect Obama to get a bounce from the Convention, it should be noted that Senator Kerry managed to get a negative bounce from his Convention. It will be interesting to see the Polls after both Conventions, in the West Wing Season 7, the Republicans had the lead it would be interesting to see what the polls show after the Conventions. It should be noted that the Republicans in the TV series lost the election even after having a lead after the TV Conventions.

McCain Win ?

CNN: Looks at how well McCain did in the Presidential Forum against Obama. Lets recall in 2000 everyone thought that Gore would preform well in the Presidential Debates and show Bush the Exit Door. The reverse happened, Obama does not do well in Debates when he is challenged, and if his sole answer is that he did a speech against the War in Iraq before it started then this race is over well before November. How about telling people what his grandmother thought about being thrown under the Bus so Obama didn't have to throw his Pastor under the Bus.