Deaths in Afghanistan

MOD: Reports that two UK soldiers have died in Afghanistan, the soldiers were from " The Black Watch, 3rd Battalion The Royal Regiment of Scotland " Thus since 2001 the UK has lost 210 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that number it has lost 179 in combat operations and 31 due to illness, accidents or other incidents. Its end of August, how many more soldiers will the UK lose in Afghanistan, why do I have this worry that Afghanistan has become a political football for politicians in the USA and UK. I know understand the mindset of LBJ in the Vietnam War, lets hope its not the same result, the UK's track record in Afghanistan has not been great, lets not add another negative chapter.

LBJ = Obama over Afghanistan

Telegraph: Reports that the Liberal Left that opposed the War in Iraq is going to oppose the Obama's War in Afghanistan. Thus we are starting to see that President Obama is fast becoming LBJ, he has a War in Afghanistan that he cant win but can not afford to lose, it has been argued that Afghanistan is lot more important than the War in Vietnam, the simple reason that on the whole the domino theory for South Asia didn't happen, when the Communist North took over the South they didn't go marching in to other countries. In the case of Afghanistan we have Al - Qaeda and the Taliban ready to set up bases in Afghanistan if the West was to withdraw. This would have two negative effects, Obama would have made Pakistan a target for the Taliban/Terrorists, lets not forget that Pakistan is a nuclear power, also NATO would be damaged. On this issue one has to look at the fraught tensions between Russia and Ukraine and the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. A weak NATO could give the Russian bear ideas, ideas that could lead to an invasion of the Ukraine and a threat to Poland, a NATO member. Thus President Obama cant lose Afghanistan, if he does lose Afghanistan he could become Neville Chamberlain and Jimmy Carter. If that was to become the legacy of his First Term he would lose his re-election bid in 2012.

Lose or Win in Afghanistan ?

The Washington Post: Article on how Bush 43 failed in Afghanistan, and how to turn Afghanistan around, the article states that the new US military and diplomatic leaders in Afghanistan can, "......win only if they are allowed to manage both the civil and military sides of the conflict without constant micromanagement from Washington or traveling envoys. " In the 1960s LBJ even selected targets to be bombed, that is a level of micromanagement that is seen as negative but Ronald Reagan in 1983 as reported by the historian Richard Reeves after being informed of the number of soldiers for a mission asked to double the force due to the fact that if Jimmy Carter had sent more resources in his bungled attempt to rescue the hostages in Iran he would have won the 1980 Presidential Election. Thus it is not a matter of micromanagement but if the management is right, is Obama in the mold of Jimmy Carter or Ronald Reagan.

Health Care Reform this Year ?

The Hill: Reports on the battle between Liberal and Blue Dog Democrats in the House of Representatives over Obama's Health Care Reform. The fate of this will decide if Democrats keep the House in the Congressional Mid Term Elections, Blue Dog Democrats will be thrown out of office by their voters if they support a Liberal Agenda of a Public Option in the Health Care Reform package. The Speaker of the House, the extreme Liberal Nancy Pelosi will throw Blue Dog Democrats under the bus or over the cliff, as long as she gets 218 votes in the House she does not care, thus if your a Blue Dog Democrat you have to think about your own political survival, thus some advice to Blue Dog Democrats, tell the Speaker to take a hike!

Voter Fraud in Afghanistan

The New York Times: Reports on the allegations of voter fraud in the Afghan Election, the NYT writes the following, " Western officials say they are increasingly ill at ease with the prospect of a national government in limbo..." Thus the Obama Administration faces two problems, on the one hand it has a corrupt government in Afghanistan, that should not be new to Chicago Politicians in the West Wing, on the other it will get a request for more troops by the end of the year to turn Afghanistan around, thus as Nixon had his policy of Vietnamiztion over the War in Vietnam, Obama will have to develop a Afghnamization of the War in Afghanistan. The biggest problem that the Obama White House will face is selling the idea of more troops in the support of a corrupt government, ballot stuffing in Afghanistan or the allegation that the Governor of Obama's home state tried to sell his Senate seat when he become President, its a matter of spin for Obama White House. As stated in previous post, Obama has about a year and half, if you include the Mid Term Congressional Elections to turn Afghanistan around, if no success expect call to get out of Afghanistan. The problem for Obama is that if he caves to the pressure of the left wing of his party he will place a target on the back on Pakistan. The Taliban/Terrorists could move from the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan back to Afghanistan and then strike Pakistan. The major worry for the West is that secular Pakistan with its nuclear weapons could fall to the Taliban/Terrorists. In that event, India would use its nuclear weapons on Pakistan and you could have a nuclear war in the region. Thus at the end of the day Obama has to sell in Afghan Policy to avoid a domino effect on Pakistan.

Obama’s Low Poll Approval

Rasmussen Reports: Reports on a new low for the President Obama’s approval rating, he now has the approval of 47% of the likely voters vs. 52% of disapproval of likely voters. The health care reform bill has really damaged the Obama Presidency, also lets be harsh here, his eulogy of Senator Edward Kennedy might go down great with the Liberal Base of the Democratic Party but it also went down like lead balloon with Republicans and Independents. Let’s see if President Obama has the managerial skills of LBJ when it comes to Congress, so far he makes LBJ and Ronald Reagan look like titans when it comes to Congress. It seems Obama is all flair and NO substance.

New Strategy for Afghanistan

BBC News: Reports that General McChrystal, the US Commander in Afghanistan has stated to the Obama Administration that a new strategy is needed in Afghanistan, the face of the War has to be changed from a Western to an Afghan Face. Thus more Afghan soldiers and police are need in Afghanistan. This strategy has echoes of Vietnam and the policy that was developed by the Nixon Administration, it was called Vietnamization , having Southern Vietnam soldiers fight North Vietnam, and get the USA out of Vietnam. The end result of the Nixon policy was the peace treaty of 1973 but later the fall of South Vietnam to the Communist North. Thus to make the War in Afghanistan a pure Afghan affair, President Obama will have to build up the Armed Forces of Afghanistan and its civic authorities, the BBC reports that it will take three years to build up the Army; thus more Western Troops to fight and train the Afghan Security Forces; Obama does not have three years, he has less than a year, the Liberal base in the Democratic Party wants out of Afghanistan, they see it as another Bush 43 War, the Liberal NYT has already started to run negative stories about Afghanistan, the same pattern if followed over Iraq. Also we have the Mid Term Congressional Elections in 2010, with health care hitting the Obama poll ratings the President can not afford to be seen as another LBJ or Nixon. Thus the US military has about a year to turn Afghanistan around, after about year you will start to hear the drums for withdrawal form Afghanistan.