Fox News: Reports that the first stage of the second Obama surge to Afghanistan will be nine thousand Marines to the South of Afghanistan. This deployment will hep the UK, lets hope we get to loan some of the helicopters of our American cousins. It has come to this we need the US to carry our troops, shame on Gordon Brown. I have my doubts if the second Obama surge will work in Afghanistan, but lets give it a trial. The problem with Afghanistan as with Vietnam is that due to geography the terrain helps the Taliban/ Al Qaeda, they can attack NATO forces and then run back over the border to Pakistan. Iran it can be postulated will try to cause havoc as to shift attention away from its nuclear plants, the Taliban / Al Qaeda can fade in to the background, thus hard for the Western troops to know who the enemy is at the best of times. Also we have to see the politics , its the Mid Term Congressional Elections next year, the Liberal left will not be happy with this surge, thus Obama could lose Congress to the Republicans, the Liberal left never wants to fight Wars, they are stuck in Vietnam. Thus for President Obama Afghanistan could be his Vietnam, if Afghanistan and Pakistan go down the toilet and Iran goes Nuclear Obama will not win in 2012, in fact he could follow LBJ and be a one term President, he could decide not run, those are the stake folks for POTUS.
A look at the Politics of the United States and the UK. The Foreign Policies of both countries and how they behave in the International Community.
Sunday, November 29, 2009
10 Nuclear Plants - Iran
CNN: Reports that Iran is going to build ten more nuclear plants. Right folks Iran has boxed Obama in over his policy, all the talk talk has gotten Obama nothing, and in fact it can be argued that Iran has humiliated Obama. Israel will not allow Iran to go all out for nuclear power, thus that clock in the Middle East just went closer to War. Even the Obama White House can see the clock is moving, in a statement after the IAEA vote the Obama White House stated the following, " Our patience and that of the international community is limited, and time is running out. If Iran refuses to meet its obligations, then it will be responsible for its own growing isolation and the consequences. " What is Obama going to do with Iran building another ten nuclear plans, dithering is not an option, either Israel or USA will have to take action, advice to drivers, before Xmas make sure your car is full of petrol, prices could go up if there is a USA blockade of Iran or an attack on Iraq by Iran.
Iraq War - Was it Legal ?
Guardian: Reports on a letter from the then Attorney General Lord Goldsmith to then UK PM Tony Blair on the legality of the War with Iraq before the War stared in 2003. One does get the impression that former PM Tony Blair is being hung out to dry by the Establishment. Also one has to wonder does PM Gordon Brown not regret allowing a public inquiry, the UK Establishment is seems has decided that someone needs to get the flak, so place the total blame on Tony Blair. As stated this blog supported the War with Iraq based on the evidence of WMD, but there were no weapons and the after war planning was a disaster, thus someone needs to be new Eden, as Bush 43 keeping under the radar in the USA its down to Mr Blair to take the critical mauling, not fair but that's politics. Also Tony Blair is very good on the back foot, he will come out smelling of roses, he will blame someone else, the tea lady and most of the public will go along with the argument, he has that Reagan ability of being Teflon, its just that the Labour Party cant stand him.
Biden ATTACK on Obama ? - Afghanistan
The Boston Globe: Has an article by the successor to the late Senator Edward M. Kennedy, Senator Kirk states the following on Obama and Afghanistan, ".... will be equally wise........and urge a more narrow and focused strategy with no further troop buildup. " That argument does ring a bell, lets see, yes its the argument of VP Biden. Who will bet this a Beltway leak by the Biden Camp, are they trying to place pressure on Obama. It should be noted that Obama has shown a thin skin when it comes to Government leaks, lets be fair all Presidents are very thin skinned when it comes to leaks. Of course this could have nothing to do with VP * Open Mouth " Biden. I have a bridge on Brooklyn should any one not be a cynic about this article.
The Human Rights Pitch - Afghanistan
Politico: Reports on the call for President Obama to use the Human Rights Card when it comes to sending more troops to Afghanistan, in the case of Afghanistan the treatment of women by the Taliban, something out of the dawn of time. Lets again be honest here folks, one can understand why POTUS does not want to use the human rights card, if the Taliban would agree not to allow the Al Qaeda to have bases in Afghanistan then Taliban of Afghanistan could have Afghanistan to run as they want, also if the agreed not to support the Taliban of Pakistan then the West would leave Afghanistan alone. This is brute real politics folks, Obama as a Nobel Prize Winner has a problem, the Candidate who wanted to talk to every USA enemy now finds that those enemies, Iran to North Korea have his number, they see him as weak, that also includes the Taliban of Afghanistan, the Taliban think they can wait Obama out, they might be right. In the speech on Tuesday on Afghanistan POTUS will state that he sending around thirty thousand troops to Afghanistan, with NATO adding a further five thousand. But Obama has to keep his liberal base happy thus the will talk about exit routes, how can he talk about exit routes if the Taliban will take women back to the dark ages. Thus the political reality of Obama is countered by the human rights card, that every President has used as part of his Foreign Policy. It can be postulated that Obama would be happy to leave Afghanistan if Taliban could be trusted to behave over the terrorism and Pakistan, thus this runs counter to human rights. This it can be postulated that Obama wont use the human rights card. Ironic form a winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.
Iran and the UN
BBC News: Reports that the Parliament in Iran has urged the Government of President Ahmadinejad to withdraw co-operation from the UN's IAEA. Lets look in to the future folks, what does President Obama do in the New Year about Iran, well one can postulate that Russia and China go along with tough sanctions at the UN, then what, that's the point folks, what kind of sanctions, as has been stated on Fox News, the best sanction on Iran would be a blockade of its oil, in other words bring the Government in Tehran to its knees, as long as Iran could not get its oil out through its neighbours. Thus what would Iran do next, well Iran either gives up its nuclear ambitions or it takes military action against US ships. That is the next stage folks, but it depends on the sanctions, if they are weak, no blockade then Iran will go on its merry way to the bomb, thus that leaves Israel. As stated folks a hot New Year in the Middle East.
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