Wednesday, April 05, 2017

Evidence of Chemical Attack in Syria - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

The Syrian Regime and Russia will try to make the process outlast the interest of the West in the incident, they understand that the Western population has a short attention span, thus they will argue that the WMD attack was down to the rebels, also they will try to get Trump to understand that Assad could be an ally in the War against Islamic Terrorism.  One can only hope that President Trump does not lose interest, he has given the impression of some action, sanctions do no work, and the Russians will block any resolution at the UN.  Thus the West might be thinking that the US will take military action in Syria. 

Trump and Syria - The Military Question - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

There are two options IF and its a big IF the US wants to take military action in Syria, there is an air attack on the Syrian Air Force, or safe areas guarded by US troops in Syria.  An air attack might be less painful that putting thousands of US troops on the ground in Syria, there are so many factions on the ground it would be hard to see who is an ally and who is a threat.   Also it opens the US to attacks from Al Qaeda and Daesh, also making sure that the US and the Russians do not get in to a fight.   This blog would be shocked if President Trump takes action, so far he has been highly critical of President Obama and has attacked Assad over the attacks, actual troops or an air attack would take it to a new level. 

Trump and Syria - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

The above does rise the question, could Trump take action against Syria, it would set back any relationship with Russia and make any future alliance between US and Syria when it comes to Islamic Terrorism a bit iffy to say the least.   Of course it could all be bluster, the Trump Oval wanting to get ahead of the story without taking any action, it will be interesting to see over the next couple of days if Trump does take action, this blog still has it doubts.  The US could send ground troops in to Syria to create a safe area for refugees, this would send a strong warning to Syria and Russia, even the Syrians would not bomb the US with WMD, that would mean the end of the Regime. 

The Russians and Syria - Trump Era


Lets Get Real:

The Russians are never going to cut bait when it comes to Assad of Syria, he grants them a warm water port, a major presence in the Middle East, also he fights rebels that are seen a threat to Russia.  Thus the Russian VETO at the UN for any action against Syria.   The Trump Oval sees Assad as a future ally against Islamic terrorism, thus has changed US policy to accept the fact that Assad will remain in power.   Also President Trump wants a better relationship with Russia, the reasons could be Geo political or based on allegations that the Russians have something on Trump.   As stated by this blog the death toll will rise in Syria, it's in no one's interest to STOP it, any effort to stop the Civil War in Syria would take troops, after the Iraq and Libya the West does not want another War in the Middle East, also West still has troops in Afghanistan, that is an endless WAR.