The US and the Economic Cliff - Post 2012 Race

Guardian: Reports on what could happen should the Oval and the Hill fail to get a deal on tax hikes and welfare cuts, the article notes the following, " The fear is that demand in the US would collapse, unemployment would head back towards 10%.... ".

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks the Oval does not really have time to celebrate, if these talks do not work then a 2nd Obama term would be a nightmare even before it started, the whole US political system would have been seen to fail.    The Oval has to be careful, it should not try to strong arm the Republicans, Speaker Boehner has a very conservative group, they have been elected just like POTUS, and they face election in 2014.  They might not be in the mood to deal, on the other hand the Democratic base will go up the wall should POTUS agree to major welfare cuts, they just want tax hikes.  Lets see who blinks first, its a game folks, but a game that could destroy the US economic system.   Things are going to get serious folks. 

The END of EX - Speaker Pelosi ? - 2012 Result

The New York Times: Reports that the Democratic Leader in the House ex - Speaker Pelosi could be facing the chop, the article notes the following, " The poor showing is likely to result in new questions about whether Ms. Pelosi will remain her party’s leader in the House. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The above folks is the last line in the article, one would expect it at the start, the start of the article is a partisan attack on the Republicans, they used the Democratic system and the law of the land to make sure they did not lose the House, they tone of the article is well off base, it sounds like the Democrats thought they would win the House, beyond the uber LIBERAL New York Times one has doubts that any political expert thought the Dems had a chance, not with the uber liberal Speaker Pelosi as their leader.    In essence the two political parties have spent billions that has resulted in no change from yesterday.   One has to ask is money corrupting the US political system, what is the point of spending billions with no result.  But that is the law and Democracy folks, that the fun of the Democratic system.  

Taxes and the Welfare State

The Hill: Reports that Republican Speaker of the House John Boehner will call for the sides to come together     as " to find some agreement to avoid the so-called fiscal cliff — a combination of tax hikes and spending cuts that are scheduled for 2013. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is why US Presidents on the whole move to foreign policy in their 2nd terms, Republican or Democrat, as the 2nd term goes the Oval might as well be a political dodo, Obama is good for Obama, there is a question if he is good for other Democratic Candidates.   The House can just say NO to Obama, its a risk, but they have the power to kill any Obama Agenda before it moves, the OVAL can go on the TV, but half the Country did not vote for him, and they made sure the House was in the hands of the Republicans.    By 2014, and its not that far away the Oval might be on the sea bed when it comes to the polls, that is the historical patter, Republicans will be stating that they stopped any Obama Agenda, while Democrats will be running away from the Oval, the Obama support does not seem transferable to other Democratic Candidates.   Thus can Obama deal, so far he has shown that he is not that good at it, he is no LBJ or Reagan.  If he wants tax hikes he has to agree to welfare cuts, and not just small stuff, the major welfare areas that is sending the US down the road of Greece.   That would take political courage, as the Democrats can only promise welfare, thus lets see if the Oval has grown in office. 

The Republican House - US Election 2012

CNN Politics: Reports the following agenda by present Republican Speaker Boehner and expected the next Speaker, the article notes the following, " but also as an affirmation of the anti-tax tea party, the upstart movement that helped the Republicans capture the House in 2010. ".

Lets Get Real:

One can expect former Speaker Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House to get the chop, she is a loser, she lost the House to the Republicans in 2010 and is loathed by most Americans as to liberal.  Unlike the Senate being in the minority in the House is NO FUN, you are shut out, you can not prevent the Republicans passing their Agenda.   One can assume that by 2014 Mid Terms, the sixth year of a Obama term, the President will not be popular, thus the Republicans can expect to hold the House for a generation.   Lets recall POTUS will not be on the ballot in 2014, thus the Democrats can not count on Young, African - American , sing females to vote.    That should worry the Democrats in 2016.   Speaker Boehner was close to a deal with the Oval before the election over tax raises and welfare cuts but the Oval tried to strong arm the Republicans for bigger tax hikes, there is great mistrust between the House and the Oval.  Also Obama did not help Democratic House members get elected, thus the Dems in the House might not have that much love for the Oval.   Highs in politics do not last, lows are often, thus lets see if the Oval can beat history. 

2012 US Election Result

BBC News: Reports on President Obama's winning re-election, the President beat Governor Romney by 50.3% to 48.1%, a lead of 2.2% in the popular vote, while in the electoral college the President gained 303 votes, to the 206 for Romney.   Florida has still not been called.

Lets Get Real:

On the whole this blog is happy that its prediction was close, it was out by 1% in the popular vote, and 3 so far in the electoral college vote.   The prediction was right when it came to the House and the Senate, the Republicans keep control of the House, while the Democrats control the Senate.   The major mistake made by this blog was the theory that ObamaCare would prevent Obama running forn a 2nd term.   This proved to be wrong.    As to Foreign Policy this blog thought Israel would have hit Iran by NOW, it still on the cards for next year folks.   The financial cliff that faces the US is the next major hurdle for the Oval, it might have won re-election but it faces a even more Conservative House, that House is up for re-election in 2014, thus will have no interest in dealing with Obama, any economic depression would be a Obama Recession, thus good for the Republicans in 2014.    Also VP Biden is not a serious candidate for 2016, that means Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the excellent job done by Bill Clinton for Obama will mean that the Oval has some debts to pay back to the Clintons.  Thus folks the candidates for 2016 will start to visit Iowa, lucky Iowa, the US election cycle never ends, that is good but also a major fault.   Good Government does suffer. As to the Obama 2nd term, expect problems, 2nd terms are always difficult, as Obama will not have a dog in the 2016 race he will become a political dodo quite fast, and the Democrats will be searching for a candidate for 2016, that candidate will have to deal with the Obama record.    Let the fun start folks.