Thursday, October 29, 2020

The first 100 Days of the Biden Administration - Biden Era - US Presidential Election 2020


Lets Get Real:

In less ALL the polls are wrong, then Biden election will sweep more Democrats in to the House and the Democrats will take over the Senate.   As a new President Biden through executive orders can reverse many of the Trump polices, election victories have consequences, as the above shows a new Biden Administration will appease Iran, thus we come to the question what will Israel do in that event, with they and their new Gulf Allies decide that they can not trust a Biden Administration and strike Tehran's nuclear structures between November and January, one can see a peeved Trump going along, just to drive the liberals and CNN bonkers and hand over to the 46th President a major war in the Middle East.   Also a Biden administration will have to worry about North Korea, they have been VERY QUIET of late, what are they thinking, they  have an appeaser in the White House at the moment, will they want to send a clear message to Biden, they could have a nuclear test or send another missile on its way to the US.  Geo politics goes on, no matter if there is a domestic election. 

UK/EU Talks - Brexit Update 2 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

There are a couple of tough points that the talks have to get over, the first is the French demand that they have the same fishing concessions that they have NOW, that is non starter, what would be the point of BREXIT if the Paris had the same concessions that they had before, the idea would die a thousands cuts in the House of Commons.  Thus the French will need to be bought off by the Germans, grants for their fishermen etc.   The next problem is the right of the UK to support industries in trouble, given COVID - 19 that should be a minor problem for the EU.  Then last problem, who decides if either side break the agreement.  It can not be the ECJ, that is a non starter in the UK House of Commons.   It will be hard or easy to get a deal, it will depend on the French and the Germans wanting to protect their economy from a no deal Brexit after COVID - 19.

Progress in UK/EU talks over Free Trade Agreement - Brexit Update 1 - Transitional Phase


Lets Get Real:

If the UK/EU delegations are drafting agreements that is good, actual progress, the question is will FRANCE move on its demands for the same fish concessions it has NOW.   The French economy has gone in to LOCKDOWN, will the French President want to cause problems for the French economy by going for a NO DEAL BREXIT over fish.  It has been reported that the UK PM is waiting for the US election before making his mind up on the kind of Brexit he wants and can sell to the House of Commons. COVID - 19 is causing havoc around Europe, the Germans will not want a NO DEAL BREXIT, it would harm their economy, crucial few days ahead.