How Kerry FAILED with Iran - Iran Crisis

Fox News: Reports " U.S. negotiators reportedly lowered the bar for their own goals during talks over Iran's nuclear program in response to resistance from the Tehran team. And, on the heels of a framework deal being announced in Switzerland, France's top diplomat on Friday admitted his country had initially held out for firmer terms. "

Lets Get Real:

The French can see that this was a PR stunt by President Obama, the talks will go on, by the time there are problems the Oval Office will have new President and Obama will making speeches to his left wing fans, the French live in the real world, they recall Munich and the fear that after Obama has gone there will be  a arms race in the Middle East, and the Gulf States have the money to buy a nuclear missile off the black market.  Lets recall North Korea helped Assad's Syria build a nuclear plant before it was destroyed by Israel.   The Gulf States and the Israel should form a secret agreement to attack Iran's nuclear sites with their combined forces, Israeli would change the symbols on their planes to represent a Middle East Muslim Country.   These attacks should hit the nuclear plants and their buildings, the Obama Oval will not be happy, it will not matter, the game will have changed, and the Oval Office will have no choice but to go along with its allies. 

The US Congress and Iran - Iran Crisis

The New York Times: Reports on the reaction from Democrats and Republicans on the Hill to the deal between the US and Iran, the article notes the following,  " Leading lawmakers from both parties in Congress responded cautiously on Thursday...demanding to review any final agreement but pointedly refraining from a vow to kill the accord. "

Lets Get Real:

Lets get the heart of the deal, the details, in the agreed plan there is no destruction of nuclear buildings, the nuclear material above those agreed by the US and Iran will be stored by the IAEA, thus in Country.   The Tehran Regime will cheat, it always does, the deal was struck by Obama as a press release to end his second term, he thinks he is Nixon and this is his  opening of China. YES POTUS is that out of it, the US has to deal with Tehran causing problems in Yemen, supporting Assad in Syria and supporting the Baghdad Regime in Iraq.  The Oval has just made Iran the major power in the region, once Obama is gone after 2017 Iran will rush for the bomb, this will cause an arms race in the Middle East, the Gulf States will want to the bomb, once you have the bomb no side will take you on, this was found in the case of the Ukraine, once they gave away their missiles the Russians had a free hand, this was shown by their actions in the Crimea and East Ukraine, the Gulf States do not trust the Obama Oval, in this they are supported by Israel.   The US Congress should place sanctions on Iran and force Obama to veto them, make him their defender of Iran.  Obama in his own mind thinks that he can make Iran Regime better, in that he is foolish.   The Tehran Regime is a major threat to the Middle East and the World. 

President Obama on Iran - Iran Crisis

Lets Get Real:

For the historical record. The modern Munich, how to appease a threat. The DEAL is as follows, " 

Parameters for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran's Nuclear Program

Below are the key parameters of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program that were decided in Lausanne, Switzerland. These elements form the foundation upon which the final text of the JCPOA will be written between now and June 30, and reflect the significant progress that has been made in discussions between the P5+1, the European Union, and Iran. Important implementation details are still subject to negotiation, and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We will work to conclude the JCPOA based on these parameters over the coming months.

Enrichment

• Iran has agreed to reduce by approximately two-thirds its installed centrifuges. Iran will go from having about 19,000 installed today to 6,104 installed under the deal, with only 5,060 of these enriching uranium for 10 years. All 6,104 centrifuges will be IR-1s, Iran’s first-generation centrifuge.
• Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium over 3.67 percent for at least 15 years.
• Iran has agreed to reduce its current stockpile of about 10,000 kg of low-enriched 
• uranium (LEU) to 300 kg of 3.67 percent LEU for 15 years.
• All excess centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure will be placed in IAEA monitored storage and will be used only as replacements for operating centrifuges and equipment.
• Iran has agreed to not build any new facilities for the purpose of enriching uranium for 15 years.
• Iran’s breakout timeline – the time that it would take for Iran to acquire enough fissile material for one weapon – is currently assessed to be 2 to 3 months. That timeline will be extended to at least one year, for a duration of at least ten years, under this framework.

Iran will convert its facility at Fordow so that it is no longer used to enrich uranium

• Iran has agreed to not enrich uranium at its Fordow facility for at least 15 years.
• Iran has agreed to convert its Fordow facility so that it is used for peaceful purposes only – into a nuclear, physics, technology, research center.
• Iran has agreed to not conduct research and development associated with uranium enrichment at Fordow for 15 years.
• Iran will not have any fissile material at Fordow for 15 years.
• •Almost two-thirds of Fordow’s centrifuges and infrastructure will be removed. The remaining centrifuges will not enrich uranium. All centrifuges and related infrastructure will be placed under IAEA monitoring.

Iran will only enrich uranium at the Natanz facility, with only 5,060 IR-1 first-generation centrifuges for ten years.

• Iran has agreed to only enrich uranium using its first generation (IR-1 models) centrifuges at Natanz for ten years, removing its more advanced centrifuges.
• Iran will remove the 1,000 IR-2M centrifuges currently installed at Natanz and place them in IAEA monitored storage for ten years.
• Iran will not use its IR-2, IR-4, IR-5, IR-6, or IR-8 models to produce enriched uranium for at least ten years. Iran will engage in limited research and development with its advanced centrifuges, according to a schedule and parameters which have been agreed to by the P5+1.
• For ten years, enrichment and enrichment research and development will be limited to ensure a breakout timeline of at least 1 year. Beyond 10 years, Iran will abide by its enrichment and enrichment R&D plan submitted to the IAEA, and pursuant to the JCPOA, under the Additional Protocol resulting in certain limitations on enrichment capacity.

Inspections and Transparency

• The IAEA will have regular access to all of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including to Iran’s enrichment facility at Natanz and its former enrichment facility at Fordow, and including the use of the most up-to-date, modern monitoring technologies.
• Inspectors will have access to the supply chain that supports Iran’s nuclear program. The new transparency and inspections mechanisms will closely monitor materials and/or components to prevent diversion to a secret program.
• Inspectors will have access to uranium mines and continuous surveillance at uranium mills, where Iran produces yellowcake, for 25 years.
• Inspectors will have continuous surveillance of Iran’s centrifuge rotors and bellows production and storage facilities for 20 years. Iran’s centrifuge manufacturing base will be frozen and under continuous surveillance.
• All centrifuges and enrichment infrastructure removed from Fordow and Natanz will be placed under continuous monitoring by the IAEA.
• A dedicated procurement channel for Iran’s nuclear program will be established to monitor and approve, on a case by case basis, the supply, sale, or transfer to Iran of certain nuclear-related and dual use materials and technology – an additional transparency measure.
• Iran has agreed to implement the Additional Protocol of the IAEA, providing the IAEA much greater access and information regarding Iran’s nuclear program, including both declared and undeclared facilities.
• Iran will be required to grant access to the IAEA to investigate suspicious sites or allegations of a covert enrichment facility, conversion facility, centrifuge production facility, or yellowcake production facility anywhere in the country.
• Iran has agreed to implement Modified Code 3.1 requiring early notification of construction of new facilities.
• Iran will implement an agreed set of measures to address the IAEA’s concerns regarding the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of its program.

Reactors and Reprocessing

• Iran has agreed to redesign and rebuild a heavy water research reactor in Arak, based on a design that is agreed to by the P5+1, which will not produce weapons grade plutonium, and which will support peaceful nuclear research and radioisotope production.
• The original core of the reactor, which would have enabled the production of significant quantities of weapons-grade plutonium, will be destroyed or removed from the country.
• Iran will ship all of its spent fuel from the reactor out of the country for the reactor’s lifetime.
• Iran has committed indefinitely to not conduct reprocessing or reprocessing research and development on spent nuclear fuel.
• Iran will not accumulate heavy water in excess of the needs of the modified Arak reactor, and will sell any remaining heavy water on the international market for 15 years.
• Iran will not build any additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. 

Sanctions

• •Iran will receive sanctions relief, if it verifiably abides by its commitments.
• •U.S. and E.U. nuclear-related sanctions will be suspended after the IAEA has verified that Iran has taken all of its key nuclear-related steps. If at any time Iran fails to fulfill its commitments, these sanctions will snap back into place.
• The architecture of U.S. nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be retained for much of the duration of the deal and allow for snap-back of sanctions in the event of significant non-performance.
• All past UN Security Council resolutions on the Iran nuclear issue will be lifted simultaneous with the completion, by Iran, of nuclear-related actions addressing all key concerns (enrichment, Fordow, Arak, PMD, and transparency).
• However, core provisions in the UN Security Council resolutions – those that deal with transfers of sensitive technologies and activities – will be re-established by a new UN Security Council resolution that will endorse the JCPOA and urge its full implementation. It will also create the procurement channel mentioned above, which will serve as a key transparency measure. Important restrictions on conventional arms and ballistic missiles, as well as provisions that allow for related cargo inspections and asset freezes, will also be incorporated by this new resolution.
• A dispute resolution process will be specified, which enables any JCPOA participant, to seek to resolve disagreements about the performance of JCPOA commitments.
• If an issue of significant non-performance cannot be resolved through that process, then all previous UN sanctions could be re-imposed.
• U.S. sanctions on Iran for terrorism, human rights abuses, and ballistic missiles will remain in place under the deal.

Phasing

• For ten years, Iran will limit domestic enrichment capacity and research and development – ensuring a breakout timeline of at least one year. Beyond that, Iran will be bound by its longer-term enrichment and enrichment research and development plan it shared with the P5+1.
• For fifteen years, Iran will limit additional elements of its program. For instance, Iran will not build new enrichment facilities or heavy water reactors and will limit its stockpile of enriched uranium and accept enhanced transparency procedures.
• Important inspections and transparency measures will continue well beyond 15 years. Iran’s adherence to the Additional Protocol of the IAEA is permanent, including its significant access and transparency obligations. The robust inspections of Iran’s uranium supply chain will last for 25 years.
• Even after the period of the most stringent limitations on Iran’s nuclear program, Iran will remain a party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which prohibits Iran’s development or acquisition of nuclear weapons and requires IAEA safeguards on its nuclear program. "

Poll, Conservatives have 2% lead - Election 2015

Telegraph - Politics Live: Reports in its 9.45am post the following, " YouGov has given the Conservatives their highest poll rating in a year. The Conservatives are on 37 per cent - a higher proportion of the votes than they took in 2010 - with Labour on 35 per cent, Ukip on 12 per cent, Liberal Democrats 7 per cent and Greens 5 per cent. "

Lets Get Real:

It is still close, the Conservatives only have a 2% lead, it should be noted that Labour is on 35%, that works for them, from 2nd they can either form a minority government or have deals with various Parties to keep them in office.   As noted by this blog and has told by the experts, the Labour Party only needs to get around 34%-35% of the vote to win, as it takes less voters to elect a Labour MP, the Conservatives need more voters.   Thus while the polls look good at the moment, and its a moment, this blog is still predicting a Labour Government.   Ed Miliband might be a disaster on the campaign trail, it does not matter, his Party will usher him in to power.   Thus expect tax hikes, more government control, the debt will go up and after five years the UK will be broke. 

The Verdict on the TV Debate - Election 2015

Guardian - Politics Live: Reports in its 12.11pm post the following " Some 7m people watched last night’s leaders’ debate, the Press Association reports. That was the average viewing figure. The peak figure was slightly higher. "

Lets Get Real:

This blog called the debate for Nigel Farrage the UKIP leader, the snap polls after the debate were mixed, some called it tie between Miliband and Cameron, others had Nicola Sturgeon winning then followed by the rest.    See the main polls here, at the end of the day neither Miliband or Cameron did any damage, from an objective view and looking at the polls it can be argue that the PM had a good night, while Ed Miliband had a very bad night as most of the polls had the SNP leader winning, that is BAD for Scottish Labour.   There will be more polls over the weekend.

The Iran Deal - Iran Crisis

BBC News: Reports on the Republican reaction to the deal between the US/UN and Iran, " US House Speaker John Boehner said the deal represented an "alarming departure" from Mr Obama's original goals and that Congress should review the deal before sanctions on Iran were lifted. "

Lets Get Real:

As stated many times in this blog, the deal between Iran and the US/UN is the modern version of the Munich deal of 1938, the deal allows President Obama to remove the issue from his desk and lands the problem on the desk of the next President.  The PR of the deal looks like a good deal for the West, from Iran it looks different, none of their nuclear buildings are destroyed, they are only on pause, there is no info on what happens to the nuclear material produced by Iran, and sanctions are removed faster.    The US Congress has to revoke this deal, the Israeli lobby needs to get to work on the Democrats on the Hill, they will be easier to move as they need funds for their campaigns.    Shame on the Obama Oval for doing another Munich.