The Weekend Polls - Campaign 36 - GE2017

UK Polling Report: Reports on the following polls, " ORB’s weekly poll in the Sunday Telegraph has topline figures of CON 46%(nc), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 7%(-1). ...Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 47%(+1), LAB 32%(+2), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 5%(-2), GRN 2%(nc). ....ComRes for the Sunday Mirror and Independent has topline figures of CON 48%(-2), LAB 30%(+5), LDEM 10%(-2), UKIP 5%(-2).  "

Lets Get Real:

The margins are good for the Conservatives, but the Party has to be careful, there are still a few weeks to go, so the Party has to ACT as if its 10% behind, take nothing for granted.  On the whole for Labour if the polls are right, they have to get their core vote out, also they have to get what Ed Miliband got in 2015, either in percent or seats number.   It will be interesting to see if the NHS hack had any effect on the polls.  That will have to wait for next week.  The Liberal Democrats seem seem to have sunk, the same can be said for UKIP.   The official manifestos are out next week, lets see if that affects the polls. 

The First Poll - UK General Election - Update 4

Guardian: Reports " The first poll published after the election announcement confirms the picture. The Guardian/ICM poll put the Conservatives on 44%, Labour on 26%, Ukip on 11, the Lib Dems on 10% and the Greens on 4%. "

Lets Get Real:

As stated the UK General Election of 2017 could be a WALKOVER, of as stated the unexpected happens, the Conservative Party has to get its vote out, it has to place the fear of God in to the Voters, do they want a PM Corbyn, NOT REALLY.   Thus expect business leaders to come out in support of the Conservative Government.   The Conservatives should stress security of the UK, and what would happen if Corbyn should win, that will have a few people out on the weekend needing a drink.  The Conservatives need to offer stability and that the UK is leaving the EU, and that old phrase means what it says, Brexit means Brexit.   The Labour Party will play the NHS card, they always do, it wont work but then they have no message that sells beyond a few London Elites.   Thus voter we have 7 weeks of this, this blogger will need a drink, and its only Tuesday.

Nigel Farage VERY much OUT - Trump Era

BBC News: Reports " Nigel Farage has accused Downing Street of putting its dislike of him ahead of the national interest after No 10 dismissed Donald Trump's comment that he could be a "great" ambassador. "

Lets Get Real:

The UK Government was correct to rebuff the idea from President Trump that Nigel Farage would be a good Ambassador, at the end of the day it is up to the PM, if Trump wants to appoint Mr Farage the US Ambassador to the UK that is up to him, I doubt the HILL will go for it.  We are in a new ERA, is new always good?   The British PM should visit Mr Trump  in New York this year, to put him the picture, and if possible curb his antics when it comes to Mr Farage.

Alastair Campbell on the 2015 Election

Alastair Campbell's Blog: States " Sometimes, when advising people I work with, I will say beware the dangers of being so deep inside your own team’s bubble that you end up believing your own propaganda and lose sight of what is really happening.

That does appear, looking back at what I have been saying in recent days and weeks, to have happened this time to me, and many others. But it really did seem, looking not just at the polls but also Labour’s own data and my own instinct going around the UK, that the Tories would not get a majority, and that Ed Miliband could end up as PM as a result. "

Lets Get Real:

I GOT IT WRONG ( KIND OF ), this blog predicted a Labour victory supported by the SNP. The actual result was a Conservative victory of 331 with a majority of 12, while Labour lost seats and came in with 232 Seats, the LibDems went down to 8, while the SNP went up to 56 Seats in the House of Commons..   This blog did not trust its own political gut, on election day this blog went in to a bookies and put a bet of £1 on the Conservative Party getting between 301 - 325, in fact they gained six more, while this blog thought Labour would get around the 250 range, the actual number was down by 24.  SORRY, I  HATE to be wrong, I did not trust my political gut and trusted the polls, others did also, see above, but BECAUSE others failed is no justification,  this blog says  again SORRY. 

Vote Conservative - Election Day

LETS GET REAL:

IF for nothing else vote Conservative for your own self interest, if your a worker, old agend pensioner, wanting to find a job, the Conservatives are there for you, also you can VOTE on the EU in 2017, VOTE FOR YOUR INTEREST AND FOR THE SAKE OF THE COUNTRY. 

Latest Poll - Election 2015

Guardian - Politics Live: Reports in its 4.55pm the following post, " Labour and the Conservatives are heading into Thursday’s general election neck and neck, tied at 35% each .. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus another poll that will be updated through the day has the Parties at 35%, so what will be the result of this tied election, if you view the latest polls, none bar 1 have the Conservatives ahead,  that is not enough to get the Conservatives back in to coalition with the Liberal Democrats.   The Labour Party has more ways to get back in to No 10,  there has been  swing to Labour over the past few days, all the polls seem to share a rise in Labour support, so Labour could be the biggest Party and then form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats and support by the SNP, as stated the SNP have nowhere to go, this latest poll could be VERY good news for Labour. 

Latest Polls - Election 2015

Telegraph: Reports " On the eve of the general election, a YouGov poll places Labour and Conservatives in a dead heat, while TNS give Tories one point lead "

Lets Get Real:

The Labour Party IF it comes in 2nd should not grab for power, the UK voter will not understand why the losers should be their government.   The older members of the Labour Leadership should place pressure on Ed Miliband to hold his strike, a  minority Conservative Party with the support of Lib Dems will not last if their level of Seats does not outnumber the rest of the Parties in the House of Commons.  IF David Cameron falls and it should come quick then Ed Miliband would be seen as having the right to try to form a government, without the support of the SNP.  The trick for Labour is that it must be careful that any low level deal with the SNP does not hurt Scottish Labour for the 2016 elections in Scotland.   The SNP has nowhere else to go, it can only support Labour, it will never vote with the Conservatives, thus their power is slight, Ed Miliband should tell them to go to hell, and see what they do, not a lot it can be argued.    At all costs the Queen must be kept out of this mess, she does not need this political problem.  

Conservatives Ahead by 1% - Election 2015

BBC News - Politics Live: Reports in its 3.26pm post the following poll results, " Last pre-election poll by Opinium out now. Con 35 (n/c since Saturday), Lab 34 (n/c), LDs 8 (n/c), Ukip 12 (-1), Green 6 (+1). "

Lets Get Real:

In other words the Parties are tied, this is not new, that has been the general trend of ALL the polls, only a few have the Conservatives ahead, and that margin is within the margin error of the poll.   Thus is can be predicted that Labour will have a minority government kept  in office by the SNP and even the Liberal Democrats, there might be a new Lab - LibDem coalition, here we go, a  return back to the 1970s. 

A Second General Election in 2015 - Election 2015

BBC News: Reports " The UK could be poised for a second general election by Christmas if either Labour or the Conservatives try to form a minority government after 7 May, Lib Dem leader Nick Clegg has warned. "

Lets Get Real:

NOOOO, not another Election, that would be a bloody nightmare before Christmas, it would be like the UK returning to the bad old days of the 1970s, to be specific  1974. Even Sam Tyler ( Life on Mars ) didn't have to but up with that nightmare.   The UK voter has to make a choice, either Labour or the Conservative Party, otherwise the Scottish tail will be ruling the UK.   As stated in this blog, older Labour Leaders should scream that the Labour Party can not form a government if it comes 2nd and needs the support of the SNP.   This would be a political disaster for Labour.   THINK voter, your Country needs you to do the right thing, do not mess it up or Gene Hunt ( Life on Mars ) will be having a word. 

Cameron on Miliband as PM - Election 2015

Guardian - Politics Live: Reports in its 5.45pm post the following, " David Cameron, the Prime Minister, then upped his warnings about Miliband trying to govern even if he has fewer seats, saying it would create a “massive credibility problem”. "

Lets Get Real:

IF Labour takes power through this political coup there will be problems, the new government would NOT have the mandate of the UK voter, and when things go wrong, or when THE SNP bolt the Labour Party will be ALL ALONE, every House of Commons vote would be a drama, this is no way to run a Country.    Those senior Labour Leaders who warn against such a move should make their voices heard.   It would be better to have a majority Labour Government than a  minority Labour Government being kept in office by the SNP or other small Parties.  Time for the Voter to wake up and smell the coffee. 

How Labour will STEAL the 2015 Election - Election 2015

Daily Mail: Reports " Ed Miliband could force his way into Downing Street even if he 'loses' the election by winning fewer votes and seats than the Tories, senior Labour figures have suggested. "

Lets Get Real:

This COUP by Labour would be a disaster for Labour, the Country would never forgive them if they tried to form a government of the losers.   There would be no political mandate, the left learning MPs in the House of Commons, that includes Labour MPs would want the NEW Labour Government to SPEND AND SPEND, the Country could be another Greece.   The most senior Labour leaders should make sure that this political COUP does not happen, the voter would not understand and when things went wrong, and things do go wrong, there would be no support for Ed Miliband.   It is time that Labour woke up and smelled the coffee. 

  

The Latest Polls - Election 2015

Gudio Fawkes: Reports  on the latest polls, " Populus: CON 34, LAB 34, LD 10, UKIP 13, GREEN 5. Ashcroft: CON 32, LAB 30, LD 11, UKIP 12, GREEN 7 ".

Lets Get Real:

These two polls are in the margin of error so either the Conservatives or Labour could be the biggest Party, as stated this blog projects the following,  " Labour 36%, Conservatives 35, Liberal Democrats 15% and UKIP 18%.   The projection in Seats is Labour between 270 - 280, Conservatives 260 - 270, Liberal Democrats 30 - 40, UKIP 2-4.   Thus Labour will have the chance to form a Government, as the Party with the biggest Seats gets first chance, with the support of the SNP and Liberal Democrats you have a working majority in the House of Commons.  It will cause friction with Scottish Labour, the Liberal Democrats with Nick Clegg as leader will want to be Deputy PM, that will cause problems within the Labour Party.   The SNP will bolt before the 2016 vote in Scotland, they will not want any blame that the Labour Party will get because of cuts.   Thus more close votes in the House of Commons. 

The Guardian vs. Moses, sorry Ed Miliband - Election 2015

Guardian: Reports on the Guardian reaction to the Miliband folly, " Of all the stunts, in all the towns … In one of the tightest elections in 50 years that looks set to be won by the party leader the public mistrust the least, Ed Miliband has just raised the stupidity bar still higher. It makes Neil Kinnock’s 1992 “we’re alright” Sheffield rally moment look almost clever. "

Lets Get Real:

If Labour loses the election it could be down to the limestone manifesto that Ed Miliband gave to the World today, what was the thought process for such an idea, are the staff tired after a long election, do they hate their own leader, yes its that bad, Ed Miliband is a lot of things, but he is not Moses, and the story of Moses should be warning to Labour and Miliband, Moses never got to set foot in the promise land, so bad role model, it feeds the view that Ed Miliband is OUT OF TOUCH, that he does not understand real people, has ever meet a real person is the question.    If Labour loses on Thursday the Party can put the limestone on the political career of Ed Miliband, you just have to wonder voter. 

Has Ed Miliband LOST the PLOT - Election 2015

Daily Mail: Reports " Ed Miliband has been accused of hubris on a 'Biblical scale' after having Labour's manifesto engraved on an 8ft slab of limestone which he hopes to erect in the garden of Downing Street.  "

Lets Get Real:

Well Ed Miliband and the Labour Party have LOST THE PLOT, it funny and does no favours for either Miliband or Labour.   The jokers on the Internet have already to mocked Miliband for thinking he is Moses.   Lets get very real here, Miliband has been accused of being weird, the idea of placing 8ft slab of limestone with the Labour Manifesto in No 10 shows how out of touch Labour are, the brain box who though up this idea should get the sack, it recalls when Labour in 2010 election asked on a poster if people wanted to go back to the 80s, with Cameron as a character from Life on Mars.   In fact the poster might have helped Cameron with the voters, Labour is not being honest, they will work with the SNP to get in to No 10, the problem for Labour is that they no longer know the difference between spin and reality, the limestone fiasco just shows how out of touch they are in the 2015 election. 

Vote Conservative - Election 2015

Lets Get Real:

Vote Conservative for jobs, lower taxes, vote on EU. - VOTE CONSERVATIVE 

Mail on Sunday Projection - Election 2015

The Daily Mail: Reports " Professor John Curtice expects the Conservatives to win 291 seats, with Labour on just 265 seats. If correct, it means David Cameron could link up with the Liberal Democrats, the Unionists and Ukip to squeak past the 322 seats necessary to pass a Queen’s Speech. "

Lets Get Real:

The above would give the Conservatives a running chance at forming the next government, but as the poll points out, Labour is leading the Conservatives by 3%, thus election night could last all night and morning.    The talks that took place in 2010 could take many more days in 2015, it really a ground operation, which Party can get their voters out and of course weather will play a part.   The projection for this blog is Labour on 275, the second biggest Party but supported by the SNP will be able to form a government.   There will be constant arguments and late night votes, fun if your a political geek. 

The Polls in General - Election 2015

BBC News: Reports " The home stretch at last but one littered with unknowns. Is there a late rally to the Conservatives? Possibly, but like so much else in this campaign, it seems far from clear. Will Labour out-perform the national polls by performing more strongly in key marginal seats? There is some supporting evidence for this but it is hardly overwhelming. "

Lets Get Real:

In other words, its a neck and neck race and the experts have no idea who is going to win, the success of the SNP in Scotland has robbed Labour of the chance of forming a majority government, one doubts that ALL the Scottish polls are that wrong.   Thus on Friday morning we will have a confusing result, the Parties will try to form a government with the backing of others, fun if your a political geek not so if you just want a result. 

The Sunday Polls - Election 2015

UK Polling Report: Reports the following, " Opinium in the Observer continue to show a very tight race, in this case with the Conservatives just ahead. Topline figures are CON 35%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%.....ComRes have a new telephone poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror. Their topline voting intention figures also have the race right down to the wire – CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, GRN 7%. Interestingly this is a telephone poll rather than an online one, in the past ComRes have tended to do online polling for their Sunday newspaper contract and phone polling for their daily newspaper contract. It suggests we may not be getting an online ComRes poll we can compare to the election result.... Survation for the Mail on Sunday have Labour ahead. Their topline figures are CON 31%, LAB 34%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 17%, GRN 4%. ...The YouGov poll for the Sunday Times continues to float around neck-and-neck. Today’s figures are CON 34%, LAB 33%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%, "

Lets Get Real:

Thus voter chose your poll, either way this blog is still keeping to its projection.  A Labour Government, either a minority or a very narrow Labour majority.  Either the mathis is wrong or the UK voter lies about how they are going to vote.  If your a political geek as this blog is you love different polls.   This is Sunday, we shall see who is right when it comes to polling day.  

The House of Commons Maths works for Labour - Election 2015

Guardian: Reports " This is because the sum of the “anti-Tory” bloc – those parties that have said they would vote a Tory government down – currently adds up to 329 seats: a majority. While tallying up all the possible sources of support for a Cameron-led government yields 315 votes. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus ALL Ed Miliband needs to do on Thursday is keep the Labour support at around 35% and he wins either way, as stated in previous post, the SNP and other left wing parties have nowhere to go, while the Conservatives have not managed to increase their poll margins.   Thus by the above and the maths of the election the Labour Party might be the Party with the 2nd number of Seats in the House of Commons, it will end up forming either a minority or majority government on Friday.   Thus we can expect that David Cameron will resign as Conservative leader, that will be a fun fight, the Labour Party will re-start the fight between those that supported Gordon Brown and those that see Blair as their best leader, and we will have knifedge votes in the House of Commons, 

Labour 5% lead in the polls - Election 2015

Guido Fawkes: Reports in his 5.04pm post the following poll results, " NEW Survation/@dailymirror HEADLINE (change vs Apr 23) LAB 34 +5 CON 33 UKIP 16 -2 LD 9 -1 SNP 4 nc GRE 3 -1 AP 1 nc "

Lets Get Real:

IF this is the result on May 8th then Labour under Ed Miliband will have a very narrow majority government, as this poll is better than my projection it might be showing the way the UK voter wants to make sure that Labour does not need the SNP for support. OF course the usual statement, a poll is snap shot in time, thus either a minority Labour Government supported by the SNP or a very narrow Majority Government and with Ed Balls as Chancellor. As 1st pleb let me say to all the other plebs, if this poll is right you are fools, and why are you reading this blog.