Lame Duck Obama - 2nd Obama Term

Guardian: Reports the following on the second Obama Administration, " Historically, they have been more troubled than first terms, achieving less and seeing presidential authority beginning to leak away almost as soon they win re-election.  ".

Lets Get Real:

Even the left wing Guardian gets the fact that in political terms the 2nd Obama Term has a limited self life, lets look at this pattern, Nixon after a big win 1972 had Watergate on his plate, after winning 49 States, 59% of the vote and 525 electoral votes the great Reagan had Iran - Contra to deal with at the end of 1986, while Bill Clinton had his Cuban Cigar problem that wrecked his domestic agenda, as he needed Democrats on the Hill to prevent getting thrown out of office. Bush 43 had Iraq and the near death of the US and World banking system.   Thus lets take the TARDIS and look at what could face POTUS in his 2nd term, as stated we have the financial cliff, then we have Iran, this folks could the crisis that destroys a 2nd Obama term.  Lets postulate that Israel decides that Obama is trying to sell them down the river, they strike Iran, the Oval has a choice, not really, the Israeli Lobby will make sure that the Congress, Republicans and Democrats support such move, any real candidate for 2016 will support Israel, in other words the Oval will have no choice, it will have to support Israel and follow on with US strikes to finish the job.    The liberal left would lose it, one can see the cries of anger on the uber NYT web site even now, EVENTS, EVENTS and EVENTS folks.  What if Assad of Syria uses chemical weapons on his people, he might think that he can roll Obama, would he be wrong. The US voter does not want any more Middle East Wars after Libya and the death of their Ambassador.  Thus Iran and Syria could break Obama. 

No to TAX HIKES - Speaker Boehner

BBC News: Reports that Republican House Speaker John Boehner has rejected the idea of tax hikes coming out of the Oval.

Lets Get Real: 

Even if the Speaker wanted to deal on tax hikes he could not get his members to go along, lets recall House members do not have term limits, thus they have to look over their shoulder at the next election, they have no interest in agreeing to any Obama idea if it effects 2014.   That is the simple brutal truth.  The Speaker will not raise taxes, and this blog has doubts that even the Democratic Senate would agree to tax hikes at the level the President wants, that cliff will have Obama's attached to it should the US go over it, thus the Oval might have won re-election but it did so with a lower margin than in 2008, the Obama coattails did not help the Democrats take the House, and the House can cut off Obama at the knees when it comes to his domestic agenda, thus two to four more years of gridlock with the US heading the path of Rome and the British Empire, ah those Reagan/Thatcher years look great now folks. 

Obama.2 and Congress

The White House: Transcript of President Obama's remarks on the economic cliff facing the US, the President stated the following, " I’ve invited leaders of both parties to the White House next week, so we can start to build consensus around the challenges that we can only solve together. And I also intend to bring in business and labor and civic leaders from all across the country here to Washington to get their ideas and input as well...  "   ( Good ) " That’s the focus of the plan I talked about during the campaign. (Applause.)  It’s a plan to reward small businesses and manufacturers that create jobs here, not overseas.  It’s a plan to give people the chance to get the education and training that businesses are looking for right now.  It’s a plan to make sure this country is a global leader in research and technology and clean energy, which will attract new companies and high-wage jobs to America.  It’s a plan to put folks back to work, including our veterans, rebuilding our roads and our bridges, and other infrastructure.  And it’s a plan to reduce our deficit in a balanced and responsible way.  " ( The President is still on the Campaign trail, bad for talks ) " Our work is made that much more urgent because at the end of this year, we face a series of deadlines that require us to make major decisions about how to pay our deficit down -- decisions that will have a huge impact on the economy and the middle class, both now and in the future.  Last year, I worked with Democrats and Republicans to cut a trillion dollars’ worth of spending that we just couldn’t afford.  I intend to work with both parties to do more -- and that includes making reforms that will bring down the cost of health care so we can strengthen programs like Medicaid and Medicare for the long haul.  " ( The President gets the fact that there has to be a deal!, that's nice ) " But as I’ve said before, we can’t just cut our way to prosperity.  If we’re serious about reducing the deficit, we have to combine spending cuts with revenue -- and that means asking the wealthiest Americans to pay a little more in taxes.  (Applause.)  That’s how we did it in the 1990s, when Bill Clinton was President.  That’s how we can reduce the deficit while still making the investments we need to build a strong middle class and a strong economy.  That’s the only way we can still afford to train our workers, or help our kids pay for college, or make sure that good jobs in clean energy or high-tech manufacturing don’t end up in countries like China.   Now, already, I’ve put forward a detailed plan that allows us to make these investments while reducing our deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade.  I want to be clear -- I’m not wedded to every detail of my plan.  I’m open to compromise.  I’m open to new ideas.  I’m committed to solving our fiscal challenges.  But I refuse to accept any approach that isn’t balanced.  I am not going to ask students and seniors and middle-class families to pay down the entire deficit while people like me, making over $250,000, aren’t asked to pay a dime more in taxes.  I'm not going to do that.  (Applause.) " ( Does POTUS really understand the US election cycle, in some respects he has a VERY narrow  window for a deal, the Republicans can JUST SAY NO to tax hikes, the US goes over a clliff, and Obama gets a Obama Recession.  The next election is in 2014, and the Republicans and their Super Pacs will make sure that the blame for the recession lands on the Oval.   The Oval has to get the fact that he is not on the ticket in 2014 or 2016, and Biden is a joke as the next President. ) 

The Democrats in the House and the Senate have to run in 2014 and 2016, the Obama voters did not come out in 2010, thus the reason that Obama lost the House, as leaders go on, as with 2nd term Presidents they lose support, thus the Oval might find that Democrats will be quite happy to run against Obama as Republicans.  This is why Presidents move to foreign affairs in their 2nd terms, they are on the whole dead on the Hill, Reagan in 1986 was different he got tax reform through, but that is the exception folks, 2nd term agendas go like the dodo and fast, that is US politics.