Andy Burnham on Welfare - Update

The Times ( Hard Copy ): Reports that Andy Burnham has stated he would cut welfare to increase Defence spending.

Let's Get Real:

Andy Burnham states that he will cut welfare in a new way, in other words he is afraid to take on Labour backbenchers if he is elected on Thursday as MP for Makerfield, and becomes PM after a leadership contest.  There is a simple and controversial answer, no one gets welfare under 25.  In less they are dire circumstances or are not in training or education.  That would be BOLD and the right thing to do! 

Labour the WELFARE PARTY - Update

Sky News: Reports in its 3.30pm post the following, " Top cabinet minister said Labour MPs were asking 'who can we tax to pay benefits to others' "

Let's Get Real:

Lord Peter Mandelson, the Dark Prince has been a disaster for Sir Keir Starmer and the Labour Government, his unsavory, a friendship with sexual trafficker has shown how much a disaster was the choice to make him the UK's Ambassador to the US.  The release of his contacts with the Labour Government Ministers, has shown a low opinion of the PM and shown that Labour just wants to tax people to pay for welfare.  This means to hell with the working class, once the bedrock of Labour.  The UK needs a General Election and fast, it won't happen as Labour MP's know their careers would come to an end.  Who can save Labour NOW, will it be Andy or Wes, we shall see after the by election in Makerfield on June 18th.

Blair ready to fight for his critic of Labour under Starmer - Update

The Times ( Hard Copy): Reports that Allies of Sir Tony Blair have stated that the criticism of Blair's critic of Starmer Government have put fire in his belly.

Let's Get Real:

Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting , candidates for the Labour Leadership have been critical of Blair.  Burnham and Streeting have stated that Blair does not mention inequality of today in his critic.  The candidates have to grow up, since the dawn of time there have been poor people, even with the welfare state there is poor people, its catches them in a welfare prison, more easier life on welfare than searching for jobs that do not exist because of Labour tax hikes or the future with AI.  Labour will destroy welfare, ironic since they created it in the first place.

Sir Tony Blair highly critical of Labour Government - Update

Daily Mail: ( Hard Copy ) Reports that Sir Tony Blair is highly critical of the Starmer Government.  The former PM states that Britain is heading towards relegation and Labour has gone to its comfort zone on the left and is to anti business, and hikes taxes to support welfare.

Let's Get Real:

The Labour Party won't listen to a very successful Labour PM and leader.  The Party has gone left, it feels morally superior to everyone else.  They will never cut welfare as Labour members are to left wing, also we have an unofficial Leadership contest going on.  Starmer in political terms is a dodo, whistling pass the political graveyard.  Wes Streeting is seen as to much of Blair supporter, why Andy Burnham if he wins Makerfield by election is seen as best suited by Labour members.  They won't listen to Blair after Iraq.

The cost to the UK of the US - Iran War - Update

BBC News: Reports in its 6.03pm the following, " Government bond markets have all fallen since the start of the US-Israeli war with Iran, meaning the effective cost of borrowing for governments has shot up. " 

Let's Get Real:

This is bad for Government funding, that means the government can spend less on Defence, and other government priorities.  The shock from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has not really hit the UK yet, it will, the PM has warned inflation is coming, and the War is not finished as yet, it could days, weeks even months. Start saving those pennies.

Moderate Democrats Defend Opening the Government - Trump47

Guardian: Reports in its 3.17pm post that moderate Democrats are defending  their vote to open the Government.

Lets Get Real:

As the Guardian points out none of the Moderates are up for re-election  in 2026 Mid Terms,  of the eight only two are retiring in 2026, so no political cost to them. Democrats will have to explain why they shut the government for 40 days and Republicans will have to produce their own health plan, if they have one.  They have hated ObamaCare since the start, and the subsidiaries to ObamaCare was due to covid outbreak, that is the problem with welfare, once given it is hard to take back.

BBB passes the House - Trump47

BBC News: Reports in its 11pm post on the process that lead the Republican House to pass Trump's Big Beautiful Bill.

Lets Get Real:

The Conservative financial hawks folded in their resistance to the Trump domestic agenda in the House.  The Republicans have been clever, the tax cuts come first, the welfare  cuts come in 2028, therefore the Democrats will run against tax cuts in the 2026 Mid Terms.  The Democrats need a new leader for 2028.

Debate Night in the US - 2024 Candidates/2024 General Election - Biden Era

Noted: The Princess of Wales is free of cancer, GOD Preserve the Princess of Wales, God Save the King.  Iran is sending missiles to Russia, an escalation in the view of the US.   The UK Government won the debate, so millions of old age pensioners will no longer get Winter Payment Allowance, this could be Starmer's poll tax moment. 

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 6.47pm post the following "  Harris holds slight edge over Trump in new national poll...With just hours to go until the much-anticipated debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a new poll published on Tuesday by PBS News/NPR/Marist shows Harris just one point ahead of Trump nationally among registered voters.  "

Lets Get Real:

This is the night for the VP to shine she has to show that she is a tough prosecutor, and Trump is the felon.   The expected bounce from the Convention was limited or none, she is no Barack Obama or Mrs O.   The American voters want to see her in tough interview, this is not 2020 and Biden hiding in the bunker at home, the press cannot cover for her.   A NYT reporter called her CNN interview OKAY, that means not okay, she seems to brittle being on screen, ironic for a prosecutor.   The general feed from the news channels is that Harris will try to get under Trump's skin and the Trump Campaign is hoping to do Reagan funny comment as of 1980 and 1984.  It will be a late night in the UK, the debate starts at 2am in the morning.

How to LOSE the UK Voters - New Labour Government - Sir Keir Starmer Era

Noted: Hunter Biden has change his NOT GUILTY plea to GUILTY in his federal tax case.  The son of the President will not spend a day in jail, his father will pardon him on the way out of the Oval Office.    Iran has given hundred of missiles to Russia, how the mighty have fallen.  Once Imperial Russia, then the USSR, needs missiles from Tehran. 

BBC News: Reports " PM defends 'tough decision' over winter fuel cut.....The prime minister has told the BBC his new government is "going to have to be unpopular" as he defended his "tough" decision to cut winter fuel payments.  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog warned the voters if you are old or rich or both the Labour Government would come after you, the basic support for Labour is new Graduates and the old trade unions, such as the pay demands from young Doctors were met, while old people have lost the Winter Fuel Allowance, something that could back to haunt the Labour Government in the future.  The PM offers more pain, that will not go down well with voters.   The problem is that Sir Keir has the charisma of a dodo, he is no Tony Blair, as in the 1997.  The voters voted for Labour as they wanted competence, the old Conservative Party and Government had lost the trust of the people.   Pain better come with joy or the Labour Party will lose at the next election.

UK General Election on July 4th - The Next Labour Government - Starmer Era

BBC News: Reports " When is the next UK general election and who can vote?...Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has said the next general election will take place on 4 July.  "

Lets Get Real:

The PM has gone early, it is reported on Sky News that he feared letters going in to the 1922 Committee, he could have waited in January 2025, he either thinks he has a chance, the polls show him the Conservatives losing by 20% to Labour, or he wants to make the Conservative Party and its factions sorry, as they will lose members.  This blog will take an interest in Labour's Foreign policy and Defence, just in case they go nuts again.   The news media will try to make it a competitive race, it wont be, the Country is tired after 13 and half years of Conservative rule, so they want a change, Labour might find wining is not that much fun with WW3 on the horizon, will Sir Keir press that red button if he has too, what about immigration and the welfare budget.  There will be endless press coverage, this blog will be selective as not to bore the reader. 

Debt Ceiling DEAL reached - The Biden Era - 2024 Candidate/ Presidential Election

BBC News: Reports " US debt ceiling: Democrats and Republicans agree deal in principle, Joe Biden says "

Lets Get Real:

The US Debt of 31.4 trillion will not be cut, in fact it will go up, and the US Congress will not deal with the issue till after the Presidential Election of 2024.  There will be caps on spending but not defence, that is god, no true Republican wants to cut defence spending and US veterans will be covered, that is the right thing to to do and its good politics, they vote, and tend to be Republicans.  Those on welfare and single will have to work to earn welfare, this might cause problems for the Liberals in Congress.  It will depend what is in the written bill. There will be no tax hikes on the wealthy or the middle class, that will make Republicans happy, liberals just like to tax for the sake of taxing and spend it on their base. The House will have 72 hours to read the bill and then vote, the House could cause problems, far right wingers and extreme liberals who do not like the bill, could unite to oppose it, the White House and the House Speaker might need to twist arms, but it should get through the House and Senate, no one wants to default.

Republican House Speaker sees PATH TO DEBT CEILING DEAL, Part 4 - Biden Era

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.42pm post the following, " McCarthy: 'I see the path' to debt ceiling deal....The Republican House speake,r Kevin McCarthy, told reporters at the Capitol that he sees “the path” towards a deal with Democrats to raise the debt ceiling.  "

Lets Get Real:

If Biden makes a DEAL with the House Speaker, the LIBERALS in the Democratic Party will go spare, they want the Oval to use the 14th Amendment that states the US WILL never default, they do not care if is legal, no one has ever tried it, the act could cause a constitutional crisis, this would wreck the Biden campaign in 2024, it would make POTUS the prisoner of the liberal left, a way to make sue that Biden wins next year is to show that he is his own man and a moderate, the should force those on welfare to look for work.  The left has nowhere to go , they will vote for Biden in 24, they will never support a Republican, even more so if the the Republican nominee in Trump.  The money markets can be secure that the debt ceiling will be risen and life will go as normal, and POTUS an be seen as a moderate and win in 2024, even if he is gaga or close to it. 

US debt ceiling Part 2 - Biden Era

 BBC News: Reports " US debt ceiling: Biden and Republicans hopeful of a deal "

Lets Get Real:

If Biden really wants to win in 2024 he should agree that those on US welfare have to search for work, that is the deal in the UK, the Democrats have created a poor welfare structure, that only allows for people in poor families to aim to get on welfare when they hit 18.  The old industries, like the car industry has moved from urban areas, thus no work for the working poor.   The new industries require people to have a University Degree, thus poor education standard in most US Schools and welfare being the only option has created Democratic voters, that is why LIBERALS do no want to annoy their voting base by making them search for jobs.   POTUS  should show that he cares what the rest of the Country thinks, they want those on welfare to search for jobs for getting welfare.  As someone will say, what about COVID 19 aftermath,  people who found they liked getting welfare and not working, they should be forced back to work on no welfare.  If POTUS  did this he would get re-elected in 2024.   The question is what will liberals do, they will not vote for Trump, they have nowhere else to go, thus the Democrats have a captive audience. 

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The Biden Budget - The 1st shot of the 2024 Campaign - 2024 Presidential Election/2024 Candidate

Guardian: Reports " Biden unveils ‘blue-collar’ budget plan with tax hikes for America’s wealthiest....Blueprint – unlikely to pass given Republicans’ control of House of Representatives – frames president’s aspirations for re-election  "

Lets Get Real:

The Biden Budget is dead on the Hill even before it arrives, it will not pass the Republican House, and even a few Democrats Senators up for re-election will not vote for it, they like their cushy number to much and if Biden does win re - election, he will be gone after four years.   Thus President Biden should use his skills to sell the budget to the American people, the Republicans will call it a tax hike budget and a increase in welfare, the typical Democrat wish list for the base.  The increase in the defence budget should be an easy sell, the Russians, China, North Korea and Iran, they are all a threat to the US national security.  The question is does Biden have the ability to sell anything, the support for the Ukraine  has gone down over the last few months, the old enemy is on the march and the American people, well a small majority wants to allow them to win.  Let's face the Donkey in the room, Biden is no Reagan, do you trust Biden for another 4 years with the security of the West, if you do I have a bridge in Brooklyn to sell to you.  If could be another re-match, Biden vs.  Trump, there is now way I will give up drinking if that is the case.

State of the Union Speech - President Biden - Biden Era

White House: The Speech by President Biden as planned for the night, " Remarks of President Joe Biden – State of the Union Address as Prepared for Delivery "

Lets Get Real:

It was  a rowdy affair, the Republicans came with attacks lines, while POTUS pandered to the left wing base of the Democratic Party.  Let's be real, POTUS is running for a 2nd term, the problem is that the US voters see him as to OLD and not a GREAT President, the were a few lines on China and Russia, in attempt to appeal to moderate Republicans and moderates in the middle. The Biden Oval should have stressed that more, the support for the Ukraine WAR is down, the Biden Oval should be attacking Russia ever day, show the security of Ukraine is in fact the security of Western Europe and the US.   The House Republicans did not do themselves any good, a President should be listened too, with some respect, the Republicans showed no respect, even the Speaker could not get them to show some respect.   The State of the Union is the kick off for 2024, the only shock would be if Biden decided not run, since that is not going to happen the US voter could face their WORST nightmare, another matchup between Biden and Trump, and Trump is leading in some of those polls.  One does wish sometimes that the UK had vote, no that would have been mistake, we would have gotten another Jimmy Carter term or worst his VP, Walter Mondale, who thinks the Cold War would have ended with them, it would still be going on.

A Profile of Rishi Sunak, the UK's NEW PM - After Brexit/Cost of Living Crisis

Sky News: Reports " Who is Rishi Sunak? The UK's first British Asian prime minister....We look at how the Southampton-born banker made his way to the top job in Downing Street.  "

Lets Get Real:

Mr Sunak is VERY CLEVER, a first class degree from Oxford, and worked in the City, BUT better known to the UK population through his furlough scheme that kept business going through Covid - 19.  The PROBLEM was the cost, we are talking about four hundred billion, yes BILLIONS, also there is the Cost of Living Crisis, due to inflation, post Covid ramficiations, the WAR IN THE UKRAINE.  It is reported that Mr Sunak has a picture of Lady Thatcher in his OFFICE, that means the new PM will not have tax cuts in till the UK can afford them, also it means that there will be CUTS in welfare, that will have the Conservative MP's crying in their cheap pints in the House of Commons.  On Brexit, Mr Sunak took a risk, he supported Brexit while the UK Establishment wanted to REMAIN.  The question has to be asked, what will he do with the Northern Ireland Protocol, will he carry on with the Bill to allow the UK to overrule parts of the DEAL, the ERG in the Conservative Party are happy with him, well they did not support his Opposition after Boris left the field.  The speech as PM - Elect did not impressive, I have seen more charisma on a DALEK and Cyberman, in other words boring, that what the UK might want, a government that is boring, does it job, but also keeps supporting Ukraine, that could be difficult if the US Mid Terms give the Republicans control of the whole of Congress or just one Chamber. Let's not forget his biggest political sin, he backstabbed Boris, the PM that had made him Chancellor, thus can Mr Sunak be trusted, we shall have to see, let's see what he does in the future. 

So it's to be PM Sunak - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 9.27pm post the following after Boris Johnson withdrawal from the Conservative Leadership contest, " This makes Sunak the firm favourite.....This all makes Rishi Sunak the firm favourite. But Penny Mordaunt will be trying over the next few hours to win over Mr Johnson’s backers and show she has a significant chunk of Tory MPs behind her.  "

Lets Get Real:

It can be argued that former PM Boris is well out of it, the outlook for the economy is not good, the new PM will deal with a hike in taxes and cuts to public spending.  Boris will not be tainted by the new Government, also he has the Privileges Committee to deal with, with Boris as not PM, one can expect less coverage, if he had been elected PM the news would have been all about that, thus PM Sunak, that will be have a clear field, but let's not forget that he backstabbed Boris a few months ago, and started the road to his resignation, also the non dom status of his wife, you can be your bottom dollar that the left wing press and TV will go through that again, it's not everyday that PM is on the Sunday Times rich list.  Also like Boris he was fined over Partygate.  HE BROKE THE LAW! The press will bring that up again, the Guardian, BBC News, Channel 4 News and even some of the right wing papers, who will be very wary of Sunak, will he be firm on Northern Ireland Protocol, he will defend BREXIT, he is after all a BREXIT support but that was years ago, he will be judged by his action over the next two years.  It can be postulated that the Conservatives will lose in Jan 2025, the last date a election can be called, and they will be sent in to Opposition, that is the time for Boris to become the leader again, the Conservatives will be looking for a WINNER, they have turned their back on a great leader, they will pay the political price, they have lost one vote in this blog. 

Austerity Mark 2 ? - Chancellor Hunt - Liz Truss Era

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports the following in its 1.03pm post, " Spending cuts are coming, Hunt tells cabinet.....He is currently preparing tax hikes and spending reductions to be announced at the end of the month.  "

Lets Get Real:

This does feel like AUSTERITY PART 2, the furlough during has added four hundred billion to the UK's debt, and now the Chancellor stated yesterday that the gas price cap will only go up to April next year.  It has been postulated that the 3% increase in defence spending will be splashed, also what happens about April of next year, is the Government really going to allow the price that people pay for gas to go up in the thousands without helping, what about business, it looks like it's going to be very a COLD WINTER, and now Turkeys are under threat from bird flu, what good deed the UK do get this kind of mess on hour hands, 4 chancellors in four months, a PM in office but not in power.  The Country should expect some tough cuts, even the NHS and benefits might not rise with inflation, as that would cost a fortune.  It might be time for a LABOUR GOVERNMENT, never thought I would write those words. 

1p Cut in basic income tax, delayed in till 2023 - Liz Truss Era

Guardian - Live Blog Reports in its 6.28pm post the following, " Chancellor to 'delay 1p income tax reduction'.....The new chancellor Jeremy Hunt is set to delay a 1p cut in income tax to help plug a black hole in the public finances that had reached £72 billion, according to the Sunday Times.  "

Lets Get Real:

The RIGHT of the Conservative Party will not be happy, they have lost the 45p abolition and now they will have to wait a YEAR for the basic rate of tax to go down to 19p.   The only main part left in the mini budget in the gas cap for two years, that has to be kept or the Conservative Party is TOAST.   As noted in the Guardian, this was the policy of the former Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who ran against Truss in the Conservative Leadership contest, at this rate the Conservative MPs should make Sunak the next PM, what is the point of Truss, her Command of her MPs was never there, and now it is gone totally.  The question do the Conservatives DARE throw out another PM, they will look like fools after May, Johnson, Truss, the Conservatives are not thinking, they have allowed the MONEY MARKETS to scare them, have they not noticed the WAR in the Ukraine, we could be heading into WW3, and Conservative MPs play childish games!

The Agenda of the New Chancellor - Jeremy Hunt - Liz Truss Era/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " Chancellor warns of tax rises and squeeze on spending....Speaking to the Today programme, Jeremy Hunt said some taxes will go up, while government spending may need to fall.  "

Lets Get Real:

The UK has had four Chancellors in 1 year, the Mini Budget has been ripped up and Conservative Budget will be replaced by a orthodox Treasury Budget.  One hopes that the Gas cap will be kept for two years, and the basic rate of income tax will be kept at 19p in the pound and not the 20p before the Budget.  This Blog would not be shocked if WELFARE was CUT, the Johnson Administration promised that welfare would keep up with inflation, that might not happen, as we have inflation heading for 11%.  The NHS and Defence could take hits, this would backtrack on the PM's promise to increase defence spending by 3%.  Also other Departments can expect their budgets either to be CUT or no increase in their Budget for this year.  One can say that the Labour Party will keep calling for a General Election, in less some Conservative MPs have gone mad they will not vote for that, given the past few days, some might have lost the plot.  As to the future of the PM, one can say that in less she gets her ACT together, she will not be PM in a few months time, since her succession she has been a disaster in the job, even the King was depressed to she her. 

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