Brexit finally Finished - Deal between UK Government and the DUP over Northern Ireland - BREXIT

BBC News: Reports "  DUP deal aimed at restoring power sharing in Northern Ireland is published.. A deal between the UK government and the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) will reduce checks and paperwork on goods moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus Brexit is finally done, no goods going from the Great Britain to Northern Ireland will be checked, finally after years of argument and political standstill in Northern Ireland they will have their own Government, there will be a nationalist First Minister and a Unionist Deputy First Minister, they have equal power, if the people of Northern Ireland want to be part of the Republic, they can vote for it, its called Democracy.  To think over the number of UK PM's we have gone through since 2016, we shall have a new one when Sir Keir Starmer wins the next general election in the UK, this year or early 2025. 

DUP a NO on the Windsor Framework - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: DUP to vote against government over Windsor framework....Jeffrey Donaldson confirms unionist party will oppose Sunak plan for Northern Ireland in this week’s vote  "

Lets Get Real:

The DUP are very hard to please, they will vote against part of the deal that allows them to block future EU regulation, they want to say No to past rules, they seem unable to accept that they won, that goes for the ERG too, it has been reported that Boris will not support the Government on this issue, Boris has dreams of coming back as leader of the Conservative Opposition should PM Sunak lose the 2024 general election.  The former PM will be lucky if he is found not guilty of not telling the truth  to the House and suspended, its is reported that the PM will Conservative MPs a free vote on the issue, with the Opposition supporting the decision and most Conservatives voting against him, Boris could find himself suspended from the House and face a recall election.   Thus more internal civil wars in the Conservative Party from Brexit to Boris, its never boring in UK politics.  The UK might like a boring Sir Keir in charge, be careful for what you wish for voters. 

UK to give legal assurance on N. Ireland's place in the UK - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian ( on line ) reports that the UK is to give a legal assurance on N. Ireland's place in the UK.

Let's Get Real:

It seems from the article that the DUP leadership needs something extra to give to its members.  It is reported that the House of Commons MPs want to stay out of the Assembly, while Assembly members want to go back.

The UK could call fresh elections to give the people a CHOICE, those Election results should send a clear message to the leaders in the province, that could clear the log jam, or revise the Good Friday Agreement, as to prevent any party having a VETO on the formation of Assembly and government.  That could force the hand of the DUP.  The Windsor Framework is the best deal going at present, the DUP should take a victory.

Former PM Boris SPEAKS about Windsor Framework- After Boris / After Brexit

Sky News reports that former PM Boris Johnson has stated he would find it difficult to vote for Sunak's Windsor Framework.

Let's Get Real

Boris has taken him time, perhaps to much, there are no signs of a massive rebellion in Conservative ranks, the DUP is split, one faction wants to stay out of the Assembly, while another wants to go back in to government.   If there is rebellion it could be very small, the Labour Party has stated it will support the government if there is a vote in the House of Commons.  Also  Northern Ireland will be run from London, as both the nationalists and the unionist are required to form a government in the province.

If the DUP say no, then the whole process has been a waste of time,  there will be no Presidential visit on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, no trade deal, and Sunak might need to seek an improved deal.  The EU will not be happy.   

Thus Sunak in the 2024 general election will be a weak candidate and the Good Friday Agreement might need to be revised, stopping the DUP from pulling this stunt, that could lead to the troubles coming back.

Brexit Deal Agreed - After Boris/After Brexit

Daily Mail ( on line ) reports that a new Brexit Deal has been agreed between the UK and the EU.

Let's Get Real:

Thus we await the detailed legal documents, there are reports that the DUP accepts the deal, let's wait in till we hear from the PM in the House of Commons at 6.30pm.  One assumes that the DUP will take its time, also the ERG, they will have the lawyers in, go through every word.   Don't hold your breath for the DUP they will want to give the impression that they have taken their time, politics is politics after all, in May there are Council elections, thus the DUP will want them to happen first before returning to Government if they support the DEAL.

EU President to come to the UK tomorrow, New Northern Ireland Protocol on the Cards - After Boris/After Brexit

Guardian: Reports " Brexit: Ursula von der Leyen to travel to UK for talks with Rishi Sunak  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus it looks a like there is a deal between the EU and the UK over a new Northern Ireland Protocol, the problems will come when the DUP and the lawyers of the ERG go through the protocol line by line.  The PM does not need a HOUSE OF COMMONS vote but there would be hell to pay if the PM does not have one, also the Labour Party has stated it will support any deal, to they look they are not playing political games, of course they playing games, it will be the Labour Party that saves the political bacon of Sunk if the new deal passes with Labour Votes.  Thus the political fun starts for us political geeks, depending on how the DEAL is sold, we could have a few Cabinet resignations and calls for Sunak to resign or face a leadership contest, fun time and Brexit has come again. 

Three line WHIP or Civil War within the Conservative Party over the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Boris/After Brexit

Sunday Mail: Reports " Furious Tory MPs warn Rishi Sunak not to try to 'bounce' them into backing his new EU Brexit deal on Northern Ireland amid threats of party 'civil war' - as PM takes aim at Boris Johnson by saying agreement will finally 'get the job done' "

Lets Get Real:

This is either a NEW DAWN in the history of Northern Ireland or we are back in to the civil war that is BREXIT, whatever deal that has been agreed by the PM and EU, it must get the backing of the DUP.  Otherwise the PM will be seen as a sell out to the Union Cause.  Either the UK is sovereign in the province or it is the EU.  A distant ECJ might not go down well with the ERG or the DUP.  These endless Brexit debates must stop, it might need for a Labour Government to solve the problem, they will not care what the DUP thinks or the the ERG.   In many respects the PM is on a hiding to nothing, someone down the line will not be happy, the hope that Sunak must have is that it will a be small majority in opposition.  Thus the curtain will come down on Monday or we will have a civil war in the Conservative Party ALL over again and Boris might become PM again, you never know.

A New Brexit DEAL CLOSE - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " Northern Ireland Protocol: UK on 'cusp' of new Brexit deal, says Dominic Raab "

Lets Get Real:

It seems that Monday will be Brexit DAY all over again, Conservative MPs have  been given a three line whip to turn up Monday, its is expected that the PM will announce a NEW NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL DEAL.  The framework from leaks is that there will be a green lane for goods only going to the province and RED lane  for those going to the Republic. The European Court will have a limited role, any legal problems will go through the UK Courts first and then the ECJ.   The final verdict on the new DEAL will be the DUP and the ERG, it could decide how long Sunak has in No 10.  The DEAL looks acceptable to this blogger, but the devil is in the details, so Monday should be the BIG DAY, we await with some cynicism, EU has bought down 3 PM's, could Sunak be the fourth.

Brexit Update - After Brexit/After Boris

Brexit was meant to be a done deal by this Tuesday, then Boris Johnson threw a wrench in!! Over the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill.

Daily Mail ( on line ) reports that Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary has warned the PM about selling out to the EU.

Let's Get Real:

PM Sunak can not afford to lose his backbench MP's and have Cabinet resignations.  That would be the end of him, as happened to PM's May, Johnson, Truss, therefore the PM must come back with a clear win from EU talks, the DUP must be squared, thus keep his own MP's happy.

The PM has less than two years to the next election, Labour have a 18 point lead in the polls, thus the PM needs tax cuts and a UNITED Conservative Party, that means getting his BREXIT MP's on the same page as him.   There is still time for Sunak to prevent another 1997 type loss, the ICEBERG is the EU and the Northern Ireland Protocol. A week is a long time in politics!!!

Threat to the NEW DEAL over the Northern Ireland Protocol - After Brexit/ After Boris

Guardian: Reports " Rishi Sunak warned more than 100 Tory MPs could rebel over NI Protocol deal.....PM’s efforts at breaking Brexit deadlock could be scuppered by hardliners in his party as Boris Johnson urges tougher stance  "

Lets Get Real:

Will the Brexit debate ever end, will the debate about Northern Ireland Protocol ever go away, this blog will wait to see if there is a new DEAL and what is in it, before stating a viewpoint on the DEAL.  As reported there is a green lane, for goods going to Northern Ireland and a red lane for goods going to the Republic.  It seems everyone can agree on that, the major problem is the European Court of Justice, it will be up to the DUP to decide if the NEW DEAL they can support and get back into the Northern Ireland Assembly, if the DUP say YES, that means they can get behind the DEAL, in the DUP seven points the ECJ does not come up, it seems from reports that there will be different levels before the ECJ would decide on TRADE MATTERS.  The European Research Group has a major problem with the ECJ having any say in the Northern Ireland, thus the threat of a major revolt.  The PM has to remember that the needs them for the rest of the year before the election in 2024, if the DUP have a problem and the ERG have a problem, it would be better to carry on with the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, this will remove any problems between the UK and Northern Ireland, that is really annoying the EU, tough luck, the PM should follow the advice of Boris, show the EU that they have to bend, or they lose the lot.  

EU talks down DEAL on NORTHERN IRELAND PROTOCOL - After Brexit/After Boris

Brexit forever!

BBC News: Reports " NI Protocol: EU talks down reports of compromise deal on European court.....Officials in Brussels have dismissed fresh claims of a compromise deal on the European Court of Justice's (ECJ) role in the Northern Ireland Protocol.  "

Lets Get Real:

It is has been officially denied that there is a DEAL on the protocol, thus that means that a DEAL is close, you always KNOW something is true when it has been denied ( Yes Minister/Yes Prime Minister ).  The real question is will the ERG in the House of Commons accept the new deal, they are lead by the DUP from Northern Ireland.  Any new DEAL must allow the transfer of goods from mainland to the province with no custom checks, that seems to have been agreed, while goods going to the Republic will have to go through the normal customs process in a different lane.  Thus will DUP accept a WIN, the UK gives role for the European Court if requested by North Ireland Judges, that seems like a good deal for the DUP, the question will they take YES as answer.  Thus it makes sure the province is part of the UK, but also the benefits of being in the EU.  The BIG QUESTION is will the DUP agree to go back in to Government, if they say YES, then the Biden Oval will be happy to visit to on the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, if they refuse, the Biden will not come, a pit pointless.  Also the Biden Oval should keep out of the process, the Biden Oval is seen as to pro Republic also their special advisor, from the Kennedy clan, so that would not be a good idea.   It will be an interesting few days!!

Solving the Northern Ireland Protocol problem - After Brexit/After Boris

BBC News: Reports " NI Protocol: UK and EU reach agreement on trade data sharing "

Lets Get Real:

The might be start of the solution to the problem of the Northern Ireland Protocol, two lanes, EU and GB NI lane.  The problem will be in the small print and if the tech is advance enough to cope with the day to day problems of transport between the NI and rest of the Ireland.  As soon as there are solutions on the EU and British side, the DUP will be looking closely at any deal and with shout betrayal if it looks like the UK is again allowing the EU to control part of the UK.  The DUP need to agree as to allow the Northern Ireland Assembly to come in to force, this will make a Nationalist leader the First Minister in Northern Ireland, that show that the Good Friday Agreement working, and that is what the Biden Oval wants to see before the President comes over to celebrate the anniversary of the agreement. It would be nice to finally put Brexit over the line, it can become quite boring after endless talks going over the same thing all over again. 

Northern Ireland Protocol the END ? - After Brexit/After Boris

Folks, could this be the end, will the EU move and thus a DEAL ?

BBC News: Reports " Brexit: Mistakes were made on all sides, says Leo Varadkar...Mr Varadkar said he would be "flexible and reasonable" when attempting to solve issues with the Northern Ireland protocol.  "

Lets Get Real:

If the Irish PM is willing to move then the EU should move, in this they will have the support of the Biden White House, as POTUS is coming over for the anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement and the White House wants good pictures of it working.  Thus an agreement that can get the DUP back on side and back in to Government.  Only fly in the agreement could be the FRENCH, they have wanted to punish the UK since the UK voted to leave in 2016.  Thus the Biden Oval might find that he has to dragged the French President in to line.  The rest of the EU should be okay, no one wants to keep talking about BREXIT, they have other problems like Hungary backing PUTIN and being their pawn in the EU debate about sanctions on Putin's Russia.  Thus this really could be the end of the issue, let's hope it getting boring and the UK has other issues to deal with at the moment, public sector strikes, cost of living, a threat of a new COVID -19 strain.

The Sunak Cabinet - The Return of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News: Reports on the return of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary after she supported Sunak in the Conservative Leadership Contest, " She resigned just days ago from the role after a security breach, when she sent a government document to someone not authorised to receive it....She endorsed Mr Sunak to be the new leader two days ago, a move seen as a massive boost for his campaign  "

Lets Get Real:

The sending back to the Home Office of Suella Braverman will please the right wing of the Party, it shows that the Sunak Government will be tough when it comes to migration.  It reported that few days before she was forced to resign from the Truss Government she had a 90 minute row with the then PM over migration.  Braverman wants to send those that come to the UK in a illegal manner to Rwanda , the left, well BBC News, Guardian, Channel 4 News hate this policy, they will be keeping a close eye on the new Home Secretary, they will be after her to make another mistake.  It should be noted that Sunak voted to leave the EU, and promised during his campaign against PM Truss to get EU laws of the UK books.  It should be noted that the European Research Group, the right wing of the Party will be keeping the expensive shoes of the PM to the fire over the Northern Ireland Protocol, also the DUP.  The watch word for the new Sunak Government is Unity, thus a lot of former Ministers are going back to their former Departments. Let's judge the Sunak Government by its actions. 

A Profile of Rishi Sunak, the UK's NEW PM - After Brexit/Cost of Living Crisis

Sky News: Reports " Who is Rishi Sunak? The UK's first British Asian prime minister....We look at how the Southampton-born banker made his way to the top job in Downing Street.  "

Lets Get Real:

Mr Sunak is VERY CLEVER, a first class degree from Oxford, and worked in the City, BUT better known to the UK population through his furlough scheme that kept business going through Covid - 19.  The PROBLEM was the cost, we are talking about four hundred billion, yes BILLIONS, also there is the Cost of Living Crisis, due to inflation, post Covid ramficiations, the WAR IN THE UKRAINE.  It is reported that Mr Sunak has a picture of Lady Thatcher in his OFFICE, that means the new PM will not have tax cuts in till the UK can afford them, also it means that there will be CUTS in welfare, that will have the Conservative MP's crying in their cheap pints in the House of Commons.  On Brexit, Mr Sunak took a risk, he supported Brexit while the UK Establishment wanted to REMAIN.  The question has to be asked, what will he do with the Northern Ireland Protocol, will he carry on with the Bill to allow the UK to overrule parts of the DEAL, the ERG in the Conservative Party are happy with him, well they did not support his Opposition after Boris left the field.  The speech as PM - Elect did not impressive, I have seen more charisma on a DALEK and Cyberman, in other words boring, that what the UK might want, a government that is boring, does it job, but also keeps supporting Ukraine, that could be difficult if the US Mid Terms give the Republicans control of the whole of Congress or just one Chamber. Let's not forget his biggest political sin, he backstabbed Boris, the PM that had made him Chancellor, thus can Mr Sunak be trusted, we shall have to see, let's see what he does in the future. 

It's a Stitch Up Against Boris - The Conservative Leadership Contest is FIXED - After Brexit

Guido Fawkes: Reports in its 5.36pm post the following, " Sir Graham has confirmed 100 MPs will be required by any candidate. Jake Berry confirms party members will be given a vote if there’s a final two, however they’ll be cut out of the process if MPs only back one candidate. If there’s one candidate, the UK will get its new PM on Monday, if two we’ll know on Friday.  "

Lets Get Real:

The 1922 Committee is trying to stitch up the contest as to allow the former Chancellor, Sunak to get the leadership.  This is very un - democratic and shows why the Conservative Party needs a few years in Opposition, after they lose it can be postulated that Boris will come back, let's face it, being His Majesty's Opposition Leader is the worst job in UK politics, that is one of the reasons that Sir Keir is going on and on about an election.  The Conservatives might have LOST THE PLOT, but they are not mad, they will never go for an election, it would finish them with the Conservative Party and they can forget getting a peerage after they lose their SEAT.  If the Conservative MPs chose Rishi Sunak this blog will no longer support the Conservative Party, he backstabbed Boris and caused this FARCE, but that is the likely outcome, the choice will not be popular with the Party members as they will get cut out of the process of electing a new Leader and let's recall the political fallout from Mrs Sunak having non dom status and that her husband was also fined with Boris over Partygate.  It can be said that a Political Party can have to long in OFFICE, out of Government the Conservative Party can reform and get back its soul.  

Brexit Update - After Brexit/After Boris - Liz Truss Era

Daily Mail: Reports " EU's Brexit chief Maros Sefcovic claims Northern Ireland border checks could be reduced to a 'couple of lorries a day' as he bids to end Protocol row with offer to new PM Liz Truss  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus finally the EU is coming around, this shows if you are tough with the EU they will back off, if you are weak they will walk all over you.  The PM should consider the above offer, but make sure that only couple a lorries a day, is one or two, no more than that, the EU might being tricky, we a agree the deal and they go back on their word.  Thus any new agreement has to be agreed in writing and signed off by the EU, those on the ground would have to follow the rules.  If the EU is just playing games, then the PM should follow through the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill and wait the EU out.  Also the DUP has to agree to the deal, it is the only way that the DUP will go back in to Government in the province with the Nationalists Leader.  This shows that the moaning remainers cannot even count on the EU, they have been left on their own. 

Trust Truss - First Full Day - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.44pm post the following, " No 10 rules out another windfall tax on oil and gas companies....Downing Street says the current windfall tax - introduced by then Chancellor Rishi Sunak - on the soaring profits of large oil and gas firms will not be scrapped. But it is ruling out further such measures. "

Lets Get Real:

It has been a hectic day for the new PM, she has appointed her Cabinet, they are nearly all friends of Truss or supported her in the leadership campaign, in fact many were contenders themselves for the top job.  It always wise to keep the opposition close, you can see when there are problems if they will be loyal.  The main rival, Rishi Sunak does not get a job and his supporters are also out at Cabinet level.  Will be interesting to see when it comes to Ministers of State.  Today was the first PMQs for Truss, she did well, none of the fun or bombast of Boris, sometimes you need a more steady hand after someone like Boris.  The PM has shown she is a FIRM Conservative, there will be no windfall tax on energy companies, that draws a clear line with LABOUR.  They want to tax everything in sight!  The big government statement on the energy freeze will come tomorrow and and will be presented by the PM.  One hopes that there will be a cap on energy prices that helps individuals and smaller companies, the cost has been trailed at one hundred billion, the PM has to be CLEAR, we are in STATE of Emergency, with coming out of Covid - 19 and the present WAR in Europe, this will rise the cost of gas and also push inflation up.  Thus the PM has to go BIG, the cost will be placed on the credit card of the UK.    This will take decades to pay off, but the cost of supporting people at home and support for the Ukraine, means the UK has no choice.  The PM was clear in her support for the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill if talks with the EU do not work out, and also the issue cannot be thrown in to the long grass, thus the UK might have to go in to a TRADE WAR with the EU.  A good first day for Truss. 

Drum Roll ..... Liz Truss is the new UK PM - After Boris/After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports in its 1.40pm post the following, " So we now know Liz Truss will become the new UK prime minister after her victory in the Conservative Party leadership race.  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the non breaking news that Liz Truss has won the Conservative Party leadership, that has been on the cards for WEEKS, this blog even got bored with it, Liz Truss is the deserved winner, she did not stab Boris in the back, unlike Rishi Sunak.  The newish Conservative Government can start with TAX CUTS, and getting rid of the Sunak TAX HIKES, also massive spending to help with the cost of living, in other words the high rate of inflation and the gas hikes due to the WAR in Russia.  PM Truss will have to stand up to the the EU and Russia, it has been reported that the new PM will invoke Article 16 with the EU, while pushing through the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill, while with Russia, the PM should make a visit to KYIV.  It is going to be a tough couple of months on the economic side, even if Conservative MPs become difficult they cannot throw out another PM, they are stuck with PM Truss, they are going to miss PM Boris. 

Liz Truss the NEXT UK PM - After Boris - After Brexit

Guido Fawkes: Reports in its 9.55am post the following, " The latest ConservativeHome poll tells a familiar tale: Liz is miles ahead with the membership on 60%, while Rishi trails on 28% with just 9% still undecided. 3% said “neither“. The last poll had Liz on 58%, Rishi on 26%, and 12% undecided. Rishi isn’t making up any new ground. He’s still 32 points behind, and 60% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots…  "

Lets Get Real:

If the former Chancellor Rishi Sunak had any common sense, he would withdraw from the race, he is NOT GOING TO WIN, if he pulled out of the race then Liz Truss could form a new Government and do something to help with the Cost of Living Crisis, the Conservative Party will never give the keys on No10 to someone who stabbed PM BORIS in the back, the members still want Boris to be PM.  It is reported that Liz Truss has stated that that she would have Sunak in her Cabinet, one presumes it is about keeping your enemies close.  The Conservative Government needs to get the public back on their agenda, this means TRUSS and her support for tax cuts.  The Conservative Party over the last few years has not been Conservative enough, we have the highest tax rate since 1949 and the Labour Government.  Thus the Country expects tax cuts from Truss, and to be tough with the EU.