Projected House of Common AFTER UK General Election - Labour Era

Sky News: Reports " Sky News projection: Labour on course to be largest party - but short of overall majority...Using the latest figures from the local elections, it can be projected that Labour is on course to be the largest party in parliament - but falls short of a Commons majority by 32 seats.  "

Lets Get Real:

If Sky is right, then the Labour Party under Sir Keir Starmer will not have an overall majority, that is a concern but then the Liberal Democrats will give LABOUR  a supply and support motion, in other words Liberal Dems will support a Labour Budget, but will not want to go in to coalition as they will have learned from 2010.   If that does not happen there are others Parties who might support Labour just to keep the Conservative OUT.  The Party of Thatcher needs a few years in Opposition to decide what it is for and against.   The Party should think about bringing back Boris as leader if he wants the job.   One can expect Labour will make a mess of it, they usually do, the Conservatives can clear up the mess, Starmer is no Blair, and this will not be 1997 all over again.

The LAST HOURS of PM Boris ? - After Brexit

Sky News - Live Blog: Reports the following in its 7.02pm post, " 

What could happen now?....

Our political editor Beth Rigby has said Boris Johnson is in a "very, very grave" situation and even a cabinet source has said he "will have to go now". ...Rigby says that usually when a number of cabinet ministers resign, "men in grey suits tap you on the shoulder and say 'you can't carry on, you need to leave government'".   "

Lets Get Real:

One doubts that PM Boris will go in a quite manner, he will fight to the very end, he has spent his life wanting this job and will not go down without a FIGHT.  Also the men in grey will be locked out of 10 Downing Street.  It was a shocking development that the Chancellor and Health Secretary went at the same time, it has been reported that it is not a plot by the two men, the now ex Chancellor was once seen as the heir to the PM, but the Chancellor has increased taxes to the highest in decades and his wife is very rich, that did not go down well with the voters.  Thus any leadership ambitions will have to wait, the resignation of the Health Secretary was a shock, let's recall that before Health Secretary, Sajid Javid had been Chancellor before he reigned over his communication team, it was the PM who bought him back, and this is the loyalty shown, it shows you that politicians should never been loyal to fellow politicians, they are fair weather friends, who will stab you in the back when it suits them.   The PM has to look in to the mirror, and not just think about himself but the Country as a whole, this mess has to end with his resignation as PM and then support someone who will follow his policies. 

PM Boris on the WAY OUT - Just Hours - After Brexit

BBC News - Live Blog: Reports on the political crisis faced by the UK PM, his Chancellor and Health Secretary have resigned over the latest political crisis story, the BBC report the following in its 6.54pm post, " Will be over by this time tomorrow, PM ally says....One of Boris Johnson’s closest allies tells me: "It will all be over by this time tomorrow...."No PM can survive the resignation of two senior cabinet ministers like that."  "

Lets Get Real:

PM Boris in his last hours in 10 DOWNING STREET, it was never going to be a happy ending for Boris, in this case he was loyal to two of his MPs, a great PM must have the ability to be a good butcher as one of the PM's Conservative predecessors stated.  One day it will be interesting for the Boris to do an interview and to be asked did his previous mistakes make him more willing to support those members of his Party in trouble.  The Conservative MPs if they have a brain, will chose who they want to be the next leader, and tell the PM his time is up.  The 1922 Committee elections are soon, the anti Boris crowd should win a majority of the seats, they will change the rules and the PM will face another No Confidence Vote, this time he will lose, it would better for ALL concerned even Boris for him to go and support a candidate who is a Brexit supporter and can unite most of the Party.  Those Conservative MPs who want to run in the following leadership contest after Boris is gone, must come under pressure to support a single candidate, the UK is in trouble, thus this is 1940 moment for Conservative MPs, they need to back the one candidate.  There is a general election in 2024, the Party must regroup.   As long as the Party does not chose a remainer it should win in 2024.   Poor Boris, it was tough period in office since the 2019 election, he just run out of luck, it happens to all politicians, Thatcher in 1990 and Blair in 2007.  

The Labour Leadership CONTEST - General Election 2024

BBC News: Reports " Emily Thornberry will join four others in the next round of the contest to become Labour leader...Sir Keir Starmer, Rebecca Long Bailey, Lisa Nandy and Jess Phillips had already qualified for the next stage.  "

Lets Get Real:

The next general election will be in 2024, the Labour Party could decided the result now if it elects the right next leader.   The negatives for Labour would be Sir Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry, they are London MPs and firm Remainer supporters.  While the election of Lisa Nandy or Jess Phillips would give the Labour Party a chance in 2024.  The PROBLEM with Ms Phillips is that she is a Remainer, and has stated that she would support going back in to the EU.   That will not go down well with Northern and Midlands Labour supporters, who voted Conservative first the time, as to get BREXIT DONE.   This blog is not a Labour supporting blog, that is VERY CLEAR, but its once piece of advice for Labour voters is vote for Lisa Nandy, she just might be the ticket to win in 2024.

The Revenge of the Brexit Young - GE2017

BBC News: Reports on the final results of the General Election, with one Seat outstanding, Conservatives 318, Labour 261, Liberal Democrats 12, SNP 35, DUP 10.

Lets Get Real:

This was a shocking election, ALL the polls got it wrong, with the honourable exception of Survation, even this blog got it WRONG.  The General Election of 2017 saw the young get active in politics, okay they voted for Labour and without a smartphone could not find themselves out of a paper bag!!!  The Conservative manifesto on a tax on the old really hit the Conservatives HARD, it will be interesting to see how many older voters voted Labour or returned to Labour.  It has to be said that Jeremy Corbyn had a good night, but he only gained a few seats more that Gordon Brown got in 2010, the BBC are acting as if he WON the election, he did not, and the Conservatives should make sure that they keep the DUP on side as to keep themselves in power and keep Corbyn out.  The Conservatives should try to wear down the young vote, once they get the FACT that Labour will not be forming a Government they might lose interest.  On Brexit the Conservatives should be tough, NO ONE wants to see a land border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, thus on this the both the DUP and the Conservatives are on the same side, also after that the DUP and the Conservatives want the same thing, the UK controlling its laws, leaving the single market and allowing the UK to make its own trade deals.  The BBC are acting as if a coalition between the Conservatives and the DUP is the worse thing that has even happened, we shall see.  The next few weeks and months will be interesting. 

The Truth about Tax Credits - Corbyn Mania

BBC News: Reports " MPs have backed government plans to cut spending on tax credits in the face of opposition from Labour and the SNP. "

Lets Get Real:

Here is the truth about tax credits from Alastair Campbell's Diaries, Power and Responsibility 1999 - 2001, Volume 3, on July 13th 2001, the then Prime Minister Tony Blair stated he was lied to about the cost of tax credits, the cost he was told was five hundred million, it was in fact 2 billion by then, and now in 2015 its 30 billion.   Read Page 666.   The Labour Party can not be trusted, they spend like drunkards and expect others to cover the cost.    Thus the formation of the national government in the 1930s and the Coalition Government in 2010.   NEVER trust Labour, they lie to each other, what hope for the people. 

The Greeks in Default - Greek Crisis

The Daily Mail: Reports " Greece is NOT going to pay back its 1.6billion Euro loan instalment tomorrow a government official confirms as banks are closed and cash withdrawals limited  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Greeks will be in default what ever the IMF call it, they should be treated harshly, otherwise the idea will get formed in other Countries that they can spend on welfare and the German tax payer will pick up the tap, the EU/IMF can not allow the idea to form that Countries can default on their loans and there are no results.    The whole system could be called in to question if the Greeks are let off their debts.   The Euro will not last if the German taxpayer has enough, who else will get their wallet out to bailout the EU.   This economic harshness is needed, there has to be a clear message, if you spend to much as the Gordon Brown government did between 2007/10 there are bad results for the Country and political parties, the UK went through a deep recession and the Labour Party has lost two general elections, one in 2010 and 2015.  

How NOT to be a LABOUR LEADER - Post 2015 Election

Guardian: Reports on the failed leadership from Ed Miliband and how he lost the 2015 Election.  A Must read IF your a political geek.

Lets Get Real:

If your going to be the next Labour Leader you should read this article, Labour had its worse election defeat since 1983, Ed Miliband managed to get a result much worse than when Gordon Brown was Labour leader in 2010.  The Labour Party if it wants to get elected in 2020 has to move to the Blair agenda, of helping people who want to better themselves.   Labour has to crack the South or it will be out of power for decade's 

The UK Polls - General Election 2015

BBC News: Reports " In 12 campaign polls so far, six have suggested narrow Conservative leads, four had equally narrow Labour leads and the remainder were dead heats. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus we are looking for a mistake by the political leaders in the near future, who can forget Gordon Brown calling a voter a bigot, that seemed to hit Labour hard, a policy that has blowback, or just the UK voter choosing who they want tin No 10 for five years.  Every one normal is enjoying the Easter Break, it can be expected that the poor voter will get hit over the head after the holidays, the Parties will be pushing to get some decent leads in the polls. Thus enjoy the break, the politicians are coming back and they want your VOTE. 

President Obama and Immigration Reform - 2nd Term Blues

Guardian: Reports that President Obama has stated that " ..immigration overhaul cannot be achieved by his August deadline. ".

Lets Get Real:

The reason that the House will not approve the Senate Bill is down to ONE reason folks, that is ObamaCare, the Republicans regained the House in 2010 because the Democrats pushed the Bill down the throat of the US voter, the US voter wants the Republican House to BLOCK any major Obama ticket item, the US voter that voted for the Republicans do NOT TRUST President Obama.    LETS GET REAL HERE FOLKS, the Republicans have worry about getting their BASE OUT  in the 2014 Mid Term Elections, in 1986 the Reagan Amnesty for illegals did not solve the problem, thus the failure of Bush 43 to get his Immigration reform through, the Republican base want the BORDERS secured first, then lets talk about the illegals in the US, politics is a brutal business folks, and ALL POLITICS is local. 

Speaker Boehner and the Republican House

The New York Times: Reports the following facing Republican Speaker Boehner when it comes to the up coming  economic cliff, " ..must decide whether he wants to seal his role as an essential player in a grand plan to restructure the nation’s fiscal condition, or continue the status quo of the very gridlock voters appear to detest. ". 

Lets Get Real:

This is commentary folks, the uber liberal NYT just wants to raise taxes, what the voter did on Election day was keep the present gridlock in place,  the Obama Coattails did not make the Democrats the majority party in the House, without the House no grand deal.   Any economic recession from the US going over the cliff would be a Obama recession, the voters that elected POTUS for a 2nd term as not the same voters that voted to keep the Republican House.   Lets be clear President Obama go re-elected on a narrow margin when looking back to 2008.   The US is split, the Oval could appeal on the TV and the new media for public support for tax hikes, but that group are not Republican primary voters, and they tend not to vote in Mid Terms, thus the reason that the Republicans took the House in 2010.   The Republican members of the House face re-election in 2014, they tend to be in safe seats, thus the main threat is in the primary, thus they have to keep their party base happy, that base has no interest in tax hikes, also the Speaker wants to keep his job as Speaker, thus he has to keep members on board.   The White House will find as other 2nd term Presidents have found their power wanes faster than they thought, the Democrats and Republicans will get getting ready for 2014 and 2016 and the Obama will not be on the ticket. That might be the hardest lesson that Obama learns in the Oval, that he does not matter, none of them like that, that is the bubble of the Oval. 

No to TAX HIKES - Speaker Boehner

BBC News: Reports that Republican House Speaker John Boehner has rejected the idea of tax hikes coming out of the Oval.

Lets Get Real: 

Even if the Speaker wanted to deal on tax hikes he could not get his members to go along, lets recall House members do not have term limits, thus they have to look over their shoulder at the next election, they have no interest in agreeing to any Obama idea if it effects 2014.   That is the simple brutal truth.  The Speaker will not raise taxes, and this blog has doubts that even the Democratic Senate would agree to tax hikes at the level the President wants, that cliff will have Obama's attached to it should the US go over it, thus the Oval might have won re-election but it did so with a lower margin than in 2008, the Obama coattails did not help the Democrats take the House, and the House can cut off Obama at the knees when it comes to his domestic agenda, thus two to four more years of gridlock with the US heading the path of Rome and the British Empire, ah those Reagan/Thatcher years look great now folks. 

The Republican House - US Election 2012

CNN Politics: Reports the following agenda by present Republican Speaker Boehner and expected the next Speaker, the article notes the following, " but also as an affirmation of the anti-tax tea party, the upstart movement that helped the Republicans capture the House in 2010. ".

Lets Get Real:

One can expect former Speaker Pelosi, the Democratic leader in the House to get the chop, she is a loser, she lost the House to the Republicans in 2010 and is loathed by most Americans as to liberal.  Unlike the Senate being in the minority in the House is NO FUN, you are shut out, you can not prevent the Republicans passing their Agenda.   One can assume that by 2014 Mid Terms, the sixth year of a Obama term, the President will not be popular, thus the Republicans can expect to hold the House for a generation.   Lets recall POTUS will not be on the ballot in 2014, thus the Democrats can not count on Young, African - American , sing females to vote.    That should worry the Democrats in 2016.   Speaker Boehner was close to a deal with the Oval before the election over tax raises and welfare cuts but the Oval tried to strong arm the Republicans for bigger tax hikes, there is great mistrust between the House and the Oval.  Also Obama did not help Democratic House members get elected, thus the Dems in the House might not have that much love for the Oval.   Highs in politics do not last, lows are often, thus lets see if the Oval can beat history. 

It was Gordon’s fault - Blair - Labour Feud

Daily Mail: Reports on remarks by former Labour PM Tony Blair that Labour lost 2010 election because his successor Gordon Brown did not follow the New Labour Agenda and Brown forced him out before his time.

Lets Get Real:

This Brown/Blair feud shows not end in sight, from the Brown view it can be argued that he waited years for they keys of No 10, but that Blair in the Brown view broke his word as to when he was going, while from the Blair Camp it can be argued that from 2001 onwards found the then Chancellor a major roadblock to reform. That any agreed deal was based on two points, that Blair would go at a set time if Brown would support and carry on the Blair Agenda, that did not happen thus the deal was void. The Junior Ministers Coup of 2006 forced Blair to set a date, he could have fought on but as he stated in his memoirs he wanted to protect the New Labour brand. One would have thought that the UK brand would have been more important, Party before Country etc, thus if Brown did not follow the New Labour Agenda and failed it would not damage New Labour. That logic failed, with the defeat of Brown the New Labour Project was dead in the water. On this Mr Blair failed to see the long term, Brown not only took down himself but the New Labour idea.

Coalition Government and the NHS

BBC News: Reports that Liberal Democrat Leader and Deputy PM Nick Clegg has stated that he supports the NHS reform Bill, ever after a Party Conference called for its defeat. At least Mr Clegg is the grown up in the Liberal Democrats, that is the problem when a Political Party has been out of effective power since 1921, they don’t do hard core politics, they jump on any popular policy and don’t take risks, this is risky for Mr Clegg, it could go either way, the Liberal Democrats could suffer at the next election or the voter will start to take the Lib Dems more seriously as a real Political Party, that is the end game that Mr Clegg is looking for after 5 years of Coalition Government.

Ed Miliband = Troubles

Sunday Mail: Reports on the divisions in the Labour Party over the leadership of “ Red ” Ed Miliband, the strife is between supporters of Ed Miliband and his brother David Miliband. This is worse folks that the fight between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown, it shows how narrow the Labour world is, two brothers fighting, one really cant blame David Milband, or to be fair his supporters, they see a leader that was not elected by the Labour MPs but by the Unions, they see a weak leader who even the public cant see walking through Number 10 Downing Street as PM. This is not new to the Labour Party, they could not get rid of then PM Gordon Brown when it was seen he would be a disaster in the General Election. It has been heard inside Labour that they don’t have to change, that the votes got it wrong, that is the arrogance of New Labour folks, if the Labour Party does not get rid of Ed Miliband it could be out of power for more than ten years, is that a price worth paying Labour Party supporters have to ask themselves.

No Payroll Tax Cut ?

BBC News: Reports that the Republican House Speaker John Boehner has stated that expects the House of Representatives to vote against the Payroll tax cut deal designed by the US Senate. This is hardball politics folks, the Republicans want a year extension of the payroll tax cut, the Democrats are slow rolling the cut, they want it as a political issue in 2012, they want to play their usual class warfare strategy. The deal on the whole sounds good, the middle class get their tax cut, no tax on the rich, but the Tea Party House Members were elected in 2010 to do real cuts, thus this could go down to the wire folks. There will be a tax cut, but it might need to be backdated if a deal cant be reached in till early 2012. In way the politics works for both Parties, the Tea Party Republicans can say they have worked system to get what they want, real cuts, while Democrats can argue that Republicans only care about the rich. Lets see what the voters think folks, lot of polls can be expected on this subject.

Ed Miliband Speech - Review

Guardian: The left wing Guardian speaks, the article states the following on the Miliband speech “… it still requires a generous leap of faith to conclude that …wary voters that they have got him wrong….”. The article gives Ed Miliband 5/10 for the speech, that’s being very generous, more like 4.5/10 and in need of a lot more work, Ed Miliband needs the presentation skills of Tony Blair. The mistake the Labour Party has made is to assume that Tony Blair was elected because of them, they are WRONG, the Labour Party got in to power because of Tony Blair, once he was gone, the lost the 2010 election. Lets be honest here folks, the Conference might boo the name of Tony Blair, but because Blair was seen as a small c Conservative the Party was allowed back in to power. Once Gordon Brown took over the game was over, the Conservatives might not have won a overall majority in 2010, but the Labour Party had its worse showing since the 1983 election. Also times change, by 2015 the economic polices of the Government might have worked, then Labour will really be finished. If I was Ed Milliband I would not count on being Labour Leader in 2015, if his polls don’t go up the Party will replace him, Labour does not want another 18 years of opposition.

NYT vs. Political Reality and Obama

The New York Times: Has a blistering Editorial attacking Congressional Democrats for not supporting Obama’s Job Plan, the bloated liberal NYT states the following on the Democrats, “ ..they cannot face another big pre-election fight…Americans need Democrats to step up now, and for Mr. Obama to lead them. ”. Folks what planet is the liberal NYT on, did it miss the Republicans taking over the House in 2010, the prediction that Republicans will retake the Senate, that Obama today is on 39% approval, also the loss of a safe Democratic House Seat in New York State. If your liberal NYT is to be taken seriously when it comes to politics it has to get its head out of its backside and fast, its going bankrupt for god sake. GROW UP NYT, don’t you think Democrats have the right to get re-elected, Obama is becoming Carter Mark 11, that is not a good result if you’re a Democrat.

The Obama Jobs Plan

BBC News: Reports on President Obama’s 450 billion jobs plan, its elements contain tax cuts for small business and welfare spending. The speech was typical class warfare folks, Obama wants to tax the rich to pander to his liberal base, the august Joint Session of Congress was used as a political theatre. If Obama wants to play political games then the Republicans should pass the popular tax cuts and then say no to the rest, force Obama to come out of tax hikes, that might go down well with the liberal New York Times, but it wont work in a re-election year. The political opinion is that Obama wants the House to say No so he can argue in 2012 that he is running against a do nothing Congress, aka Harry Truman in 1948, the problem for POUTS is he is no Truman, the House Republicans were elected to say NO to Obama, after he passed ObamaCare, Democrats are having flashbacks if they think this trick would work with Obama as the nominee, this is blog is close to calling this election NOW, and it would be negative for Obama, lets see what other tricks Obama has, they better be good, otherwise he wont be Truman, he will be Walter Mondale.