Iran FAILED Surprise attack on US Bases - Update

 Sky News: Reports in its 2.29am post the following, " 'Surprise attack' on US forces: After several nights of relative calm in the region, the US military accused Iran of an attempted "surprise attack" overnight on Tuesday, claiming Tehran launched "multiple" ballistic missiles at American forces in the Middle East. US Central Command said that all missiles were "successfully intercepted". " 

Lets Get Real:

Thus this shows that Iran cannot be trusted, while Trump is desperate for a peace deal, the Tehran Regime knows that Trump is political trouble and will use this time to have endless talks while planning attacks like the above.  There are factions in Tehran, Revolutionary Guards are the hardliners, they want to carry the fight to the US and its Gulf Allies, the Government is more secular, they want talks, the Supreme Leader if alive is not talking or is a puppet of a the Guard.  Trump has to finish the job, these endless talks are a front, the Theocracy in Tehran is playing Trump, and Trump is such a fool he refuses to see it, this Iran War could turn out to be a major disaster for Trump and the US.  The acceptable outcome is a US win, or a disaster up their with Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq. 

The cost of the US - Iran War - Update

BBC News: Reports in its 7.21pm post the following,  " War’s total cost could exceed $29bn for US "

Let's Get Real:

This is not a high number, Afghanistan and Iraq cost more in the end, Iran you can argue is more important, take out the cancer of the Middle East, take out the theocracy in Tehran and and save lives.  This is Trump's chance to make the history books, win and be successful.

Trump on Iran's nuclear stockpile - Update

BBC News: Reports in its 2.05pm post the following, "No rush on confiscating enriched uranium - Trump "

Let's Get Real:

The US - Iran deal is WORSE than Munich 1938, it was a strategic blunder equall to Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq.  Trump is in no rush to get the nuclear stockpile, no wonder he has not released the plan yet, he is afraid of the outcry from the Right of the Republicans, the Democrats will tear it apart.  This is a disaster for Trump and the World.

I don’t make BAD Deals - Trump - Update

Guardian: Reports in its 7.33pm post the following, " If I have make a deal with Iran, it will be a good and proper one,'  " 

Let's Get Real:

Trump is a weak President who did not sell the War to US voters. BUSH 43 did with the Iraq war, and was supported by the US Congress.  Thus no support for Trump when the war become a stand off, gas prices have risen, also inflation from the War has driven other prices.  The Mid Terms are coming, the Democrats could take the House, they will impeach Trump again, and then 2028 cycle starts.

US - Iran Talks in Pakistan - Update

Guardian: Reports in its 3.24pm posy the following, " US-Iran talks could be held in next three days - Trump "

Let's Get Real:

Thus the US is paying a weak hand, Trump is desperate for an off ramp, the War is not popular in general with US voters, even the MAGA base is not that solid, Trump did not sell the War before starting the WAR, at least Bush 43 and Tony Blair sold the Iraq War, flawed and wrong information as it was at the time.  The sticking points in the Iran War are Iran's nuclear stockpile and the Strait of Hormuz, both sides have different agendas.

Trump threatening Iranian attack speedboats- Update

Sky News: Reports in its 3.28pm post the following, " Trump warns Iranian ships will be 'eliminated' if they approach blockade "

Let's Get Real:

These pasky speedboats can be a dangerous nuisance, they are fast and hard to target in less you are looking for them at sea.  US Navy has the technology it needs to thwart such attacks, they only have to be lucky once, to cause problems for the Blockade, the America voters do not support the War, neither does the Liberal press.  Trump is in a pickle when it comes to the war,  no US President could allow Iran to go nuclear on the other hand after Afghanistan and Iraq the Americans want their Presidents to concentrate on domestic issues, such as inflation.  A option is for Trump to declared victory and go home, any Presidential Credibility would be gone.

Trump not happy with UK over Strait of Hormuz Policy - Update

BBC News: Reports in its 5.17pm post the following,  "I was not happy with the UK... they should be involved enthusiastically'  "

Let's Get Real:

The Trump Administration started this war without Allies, at Bush 43 had the UK and others in the Iraq War.  The Strait of Hormuz should have been planned for, of course Iran was going to block it, that is their main asset, the US Chief of Staff should have planned for blocking of oil.  The UK these days does not have the ships to lose to a drone or mine strike.  The US should do it first, like in late 1980s.  If it works, then we can come in.  This will shaft the Ukraine, Trump is a transactional politican, in other words you scratch my back and I will scratch yours, political decisions are tough, on thus UK PM is right at this moment.

Israel has thousands of targets in Iran - Update

Guardian: Reports in its 2.21pm post the following, " Israel says thousands of targets remain as Iran urges others to avoid war  "

Let's Get Real:

Israel will not give up, it has Iran on the robes, Hezbollah on the run Lebanon.  This is the time to kill off the threat to Israel, Jerusalem has faced threat for years from Beirut under control of HEZBOLLAH, in Yemen with its terrorists supported by Iran.  The Theocracy in Iran has used Terror in the Region, Iraq with US faced terrorism for years.  The US has a President who is not afraid to take action, the problem with Trump he is erratic, might declare victory tomorrow with the job half done.   The War goes on, the US and Israel have to win.

White House does not rule out Troops on the Ground - Update

Guardian  Reports " White House doesn't rule out possibility of US boots on the ground in Iran "

Let's Get Real:

This is the last option for Trump, he made his political career on being opposed to forever wars in the Middle East.  The left would love US troops on the ground, then they would run clips of Trump being critical of Iraq and  tAfghanistan deployment, BUT no war is the same, Iran could be different and is a State, the left should be careful for what they wish for, Trump could WIN in Iran.

The USA v. Iran - Update

Guardian: Reports " Trump’s current war on Iran picks up where a longstanding enmity left  "

Let's Get Real:

444 days will always be in the memory of this blog and haggard look on Jimmy Carter, the President during the Hostages Crisis of 1979 -81.  IRAN has been an evil presence in the International system since then.   The hostage crisis in Lebanon, and the IED's in Iraq developed by Iran.  If this is the end of the theocracy, that is good, there is an hell for the Supreme Leader and his supporters or prison for those still alive.

Over learning the lessons of Vietnam - Vietnam Lessons

CNN: Reports on the role of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the article notes the following, " Caine has been vocal about the potential downsides of launching a major military operation targeting Iran, raising concerns about the scale, complexity and potential for US casualties of such a mission, according to sources familiar with his advice.  "

Let's Get Real:

These are the ghosts of Vietnam, West Point drills in to the cadets the mistakes of the Vietnam War, from the military to the political, and now they also learn the lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq.  The first reaction of the  military is to scare hell out the President in the Oval, when they plan a military military action, they tried that with Bush 41 when it came to the First Gulf War, the President was not frightened, and gave the operation the green light, Bush 41 had served in WW2, the youngest piolt in the Navy, the problem  with the above in the article is that Trump wants to WIMP out, so the above advice will give him reason to chicken out, its something he wants to do.  This as stated in previous post will come back to haunt Trump in 2028 and his VP who will running for Trump's third term.

Trump warns Iran on its nuclear ambitions - Update

BBC News: Reports in its 3.48am post that President Trump warned Iran about its nuclear ambitions in his State of the Union address to Congress.

Let's Get Real:

POTUS stated what the World knows that US has an armada in the Middle East, the largest since the Iraq War, he stated he wants Diplomacy but will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, he did not sell that a war might be needed in the end, is he about to WIMP out, or is about to chicken out.  The lack of selling a needed WAR confirms that Trump will take a 2nd hand deal, worse than Obama's deal with Iran.  The people of Iran will suffer for more years under a theocracy, Appeasement never works.

Trump considering LIMITED STRIKE on IRAN - Update

Fox News: Reports that President Trump is considering a limited strike on Iran to get them to the Negation Table.

Let's Get Real:

This is the REAL TRUMP, he wants a limited war and Tehran caving to what he wants, no nukes and access to their oil.   The biggest build up of US military forces is to send a warning to Iran, the problem is everyone has Trump's number, limited WAR with GOOOD TV HEADLINES.   The Oval does not want body bags of US Military Personnel, it does not want to place land forces in Iran, after the perceived and actual failure in AFGHANISTAN AND IRAQ, Biden's polls never recovered after the failed departing of American from Afghanistan, Trump does not want that before the November Elections.  IF Tehran had a brain cell it would cave, and the Regime would be safe from Trump, that is the question will Tehran cave to US demands.

Trump's Deadline to Iran - 10 Days and Counting Down - Update

Daily Mail: Reports " Donald Trump warned the US could bomb Iran if a deal isn't reached in the next 10 days "

Let's Get Real:

This is a way out for TRUMP, his deadlines change many times are women change their clothes - A lot.  Trump is a wimp, but he is costing the American Tax Payer a fortune, he has two aircraft carriers in the Middle East by the Weekend, and other US Ships and Subs who can launch cruise missiles.  It would be interesting to see the COST of this vast deployment, all that Trump can look tough.  CNN has stated that Trump has added 5 days to is deadline.  It has become a truism that Trump Always Chickens OUT, the tax payer has to pick up the bill.   If POTUS does not act, he will be seen as WEAK, on the reverse side that non action will go down well with his base.  The MAGA base are tired of long WARS, they see AFGHANISTAN and IRAQ as a failure, and are tired of the US being the World's policeman, and Trump the showman has not stated why the US has to go WAR, he stated in the past that the US had destroyed Iran's nuclear capacity, was that true or false, if FALSE, the Oval should explain WHY, if he wimps out, no one will be afraid of Trump on the World Stage. What an irony!.

The Ball is is the American Court - Iran - Update

BBC News: Reports that Iran has stated the Iranian- US talks on Iran's ambitions are in the US Court.

Let's Get Real:

The Tehran Regime know that Trump is a TWACO, Trump will always Chicken Out, he does not have Presidential credibility, he likes quick  OPERATIONS, no loss of American lives, such as in Venezuela, likes good headlines, also there are elections in November, the Congress is up for elections, he is NO Reagan as mentioned in previous post, also to be honest the MAGA base after Afghanistan and Iraq do not like long and costly wars.   The exception is weak Presidents, Carter, Biden, will Trump add his name to weak holders of the Oval Office.  Trump's predecessor,  Joe Biden never recovered from the mess of the US leaving Afghanistan, image's that are iconic now! So what will Trump do about Iran.

Does Iran understand Trump ? - Update

Guardian: Reports " Iran is betting that Trump does not have a plan for regime change...Although weakened by airstrikes, sanctions and domestic unrest, Tehran is surprisingly bullish before talks with US "

Lets Get Real:

The Tehran Regime gets the fact that Trump is not big on challenging Tyrants, or having long wars, the Kidnapping of the leader of Venezuela and the short term bombing of Iran is as far as WIMP like Trump will go, he does not do long term battles or troops on the ground, in that fact he has learned the lesson of IRAQ and AFGHANISTAN.    Therefore POTUS has blood on his hands for calling out the protesters to take over buildings,  he said he was coming to the rescue and he failed them.  Those kind enough to read this blog should not be surprised if Trump a does 2nd hand deal with Tehran, the appearance of getting their nuclear material and walks away, then Iran can carry with its plan to develop nuclear weapons, with the help of North Korea.  Let's recall Trump is a reality TV star, builds up the tension, then climax, and Trump gets good headlines for preventing a WAR, and Iran can carry on with its ballistic weapons and funding terrorists in the Middle East.  

New START (Treaty) to Expire on Thusday - Update

BBC News: Reports that the New START ( Treaty ) is to expire on Thursday.

Lets Get Real:

This is the end of the era for treaties to control the nuclear arms of both Russia and the US.  As the article notes Trump wants a new Treaty that includes China, no chance, Russia wants to include the UK and France, no way that will happen, France is only a player on the World Stage because it has Nukes, the UK on the whole is a dependable ally of the US on the ground, of late Afghanistan and Iraq.  The Treaty that outlawed different kinds of Nukes, was the INF Treaty signed by Reagan and Gorbachev, that was allowed to expire, thus Europe would be a battle front should WW3 break out.  The Old order is gone, Nukes were meant to prevent Mutual Assured Destruction in Europe, the Trump Era has destroyed that, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine has shown that Nukes do not prevent Wars, Ukraine gave up its Nukes, after security guarantees from the US and Russia, the assurances were not worth the paper they were written on.   The Coalition of willing and the US are willing to give security guarantees to the Ukraine, and troops on the ground, the Russians object, we are back to pre WW2 days, Russia is Germany and the Ukraine is brave Poland.  The result is still unknown.

Attack on Iran would lead to a Regional War - Tehran

BBC News: Reports that the Supreme Leader in Iran has stated that a US - Iran War would lead to a Regional War.

Lets Get Real:

The sole outcome of a war would weaken the Regime, and a political News cycle win for Trump.  The Trump Oval's constant threats mean nothing, Trump has an aversion to WAR, that lasts longer than a NEWS CYCLE, he does want another Afghanistan or Iraq, the MAGA base no longer wants to be the POLICEMAN of the World.  Trump does not want to be LBJ or Bush 43. 

Is Turkey the way OUT for the WIMP Trump - Update

Guardian: Reports " Iran seeks to avert US military action with talks in Ankara...Turkey hosts urgent mediation as Trump’s threats mount and Tehran weighs painful compromises to avoid conflict "

Lets Get Real:

The more Trump waits convinces this blog that he is a WIMP.  As the last month has show he backs down under pressure, from Greenland, his slander of British Troops in Afghanistan and now ICE killing of two Americans as they protest the Trump attempt to throw out illegal immigrants.   The Trump Oval is getting pressure from Middle East allies, and his MAG base not to attack, thus Turkey could be his way out, he has the blood of Iranian  protesters on his hands, he said he would come to the rescue and he failed them.  The Democrats should take the House in November, Americans do not like weak leaders, look at what happened to President Biden after his rash exit of Afghanistan.   Reagan and JFK were strong leaders, so in many respects were Bush 41 and Bush 43, after the failure of the peace in Iraq, Bush 43 still won in 2004 Presidential Election, LBJ had to withdraw after doing badly in the 1968 New Hampshire primary, and President Biden had to withdraw after the most disastrous  Debate in Presidential history in 2024.  Trump's poll number are in the toilet, he will get impeached by the Democratic House in 2026, and the Republicans might fancy their chances with a President Vance in the OVAL.

Tony Blair appointed to the Board of Peace for Gaza - Update

Sky News: Reports that Tony Blair has been appointed to the Board of Peace for Gaza by President Trump.

Lets Get Real:

This will not go down well on the Arab Street, they still remember the Iraq War and the failure of the peace.  That is not the fault of Blair, more the Bush 43 Administration, and the removal and sacking of the previous Iraqi Administration and the attempt to start a new and Democratic structure, Trump has not done that with Venezuela.   The question, who will remove the weapons from Hamas, the terrorist group still runs Gaza.