Trump and Taxes - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " Presumptive US Republican nominee Donald Trump has said taxes for rich people may have to go up in an apparent reversal of his stated policy. "

Lets Get Real:

The above shows that Trump is not a REAL Republican and a Conservative.   The Republican Party since the time of Reagan has been about tax cuts, as it has been shown that tax cuts help the economy, and tax cuts for the rich help those on a lower scale.   The Trump Campaign is nicking the policy aims of the Sanders Campaign and liberal Democrats.  It might just be a good idea to run a Conservative candidate against Trump and Hillary Clinton.    

Guardian - US Politics Live: Reports in its 5.52pm post the following remarks by Donald Trump" ...harks back to his proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the US, invoking the December terrorist attack in San Bernardino by an American man and his Pakistani wife. “We can’t allow these people to come here because we don’t know who the hell they are. We have no idea who they are.”

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Donald is back on his racist remarks about Muslims, one has to wonder what the US voter see in Trump, he did come 2nd in Iowa and is leading by a large margin in New Hampshire.  The US voter must be VERY angry with the political system to take a risk on a new minted politician like Trump, in most polls they see the Country going in the wrong direction and that future generations will hot have what they have, but to elect someone like Trump is MAD, its like putting a nutter in charge of a Asylum, it will end in failure, lets hope the good people of New Hampshire vote for Senator Rubio. 

The Rubio Surge AFTER Iowa - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " US presidential hopeful Marco Rubio has seen a surge in high-profile endorsements, after a surprisingly strong finish in the Iowa caucuses. "

Lets Get Real:

This is Senator Rubio's chance to become the Establishment Candidate, he needs a good showing in NH before going on to the Southern States, a win would be a great but one can assume that the Trump will make sure he wins New Hampshire, this is his stepping stone to the South, and the Republican nomination.   The problem is he is grumpy after losing in Iowa, the Donald has to get over himself, otherwise he will learn what happens when ratings go down for a TV Show, it is pulled, the Donald has to set him mind on NH and the threat from Rubio. 

The Donald vs. Cruz - Iowa Charge - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " Donald Trump wants Iowa rematch, accusing Cruz of 'fraud' "

Lets Get Real:

The reality star has meet political reality and he does not like it, one has to assume that Donald Trump does not lose that often in his business or private life.  The fact that Trump is still going about Iowa shows that he does not understand the political process, Iowa is finished, its New Hampshire NOW, the Trump machine, if it has one has to get its operation going in NH as to make sure that Trump wins, he has lead in all the polls, if Trump does lose New Hampshire to Rubio it could be over for Trump.   The same goes for Senator Sanders, he has a huge lead in NH, if HRC can beat him or come a close 2nd the race is over, its HRC all the way to Oval. 

Is Rubio the new Ronald Reagan? - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports the following on Senator Marco Rubio, " Rubio did well in Iowa among younger voters and the well-educated; he cleaned up in urban centres, which bodes well for the later big state primaries like Ohio and Pennsylvania. If Jeb Bush bows out, Rubio’s native Florida is in also in the bag. So Rubio has the potential to do what Reagan did 30 years ago: take the fury of grassroots conservatism, mellow it with humour and transform it into a strong electoral coalition. "

Lets Get Real:

The Rubio surge was expected, the fact that he got close to Trump is second was a shock, Trump has not been off the TV, he didn't have to advertise he had free coverage from the news networks.   Thus we come to New Hampshire, what will the Donald do, it will require real retail politics by him in NH, he has a strong lead, but leads can be lost, can he do a Reagan, skip the Iowa Debate and lose Iowa to Bush 41 but then go to win in NH.   The question is can the Donald take advice and will he listen?  As for Rubio no expects him to win NH, thus the Senator must try, as with Hillary Clinton, a shock win in NH for Rubio could end the race, but then does the Senator have it himself to win, he comes across as charming and clever, but he is so young, is he ready for the Presidency.  This blog has its doubts that Rubio is the next Reagan, Reagan was a Master politician who never admitted he was a politician. 

The Democratic Delegate Count - Election 2016

CNN - Live US Politics: Reports in its 6.46pm post the following on the delegate count between Senator Sanders and Hillary Clinton , " ...the Iowa Democratic caucuses means she and Vermont senator Bernie Sanders are going to split up those delegates, Solomon-style: Clinton will collect 23 delegates and Sanders will win 21. With her advantage in superdelegates - party officials who can support the candidate of their choice, a feature exclusive to the Democrats - Clinton now has a total of 385 delegates, or a little more than 16% of the amount she needs. Sanders has 29.  Granted, delegate-chasing isn’t everything - Clinton tried that in her 2008 campaign against then-senator Barack Obama, and she ended up working for him. "

Lets Get Real:

Let's be clear, Senator Sanders is NO President Obama, he appeals to extreme left wingers, he is a self styled Socialist, and his tax plans would make Count Dracula go pale, one doubts his voters actually understand that, he would tax everybody, if your old you do not want to be taxed on what your have worked for through your life.   Thus the only real choice for Democrats is WHEN HRC become the Democratic nominee, if Sanders can come close or win the other Caucus States the election could be a long fight, IF on the other hand HRC and her team can take New Hampshire they could finish the race early and move their attention to the Republicans, the idea of a President Cruz or Trump makes this blogger go pale. 

The Afterglow of the IOWA Results - Election 2016

Daily Mail: Reports " Trump will probably bounce back from Iowa but – win or lose - ‘Barmy’ Bernie has given Queen Hillary a hiding. Now she has a real fight on her hands  "

Lets Get Real:

In the internal poll of those voted it could be seen that Senators gained a majority of the Youth vote, this is good for the Senator, but and there is a but, the Young hardly ever vote, on election day in the UK, this voter was startled to see a lot of older voters come out, it can be postulated they were afraid of a Labour Government or a Labour Government supported by the SNP.   The older generation want to keep their perks, so any cuts to their agenda will drag them out, that is why Senator Sanders is popular with the youth vote, he is promising them perks, the cost will be paid by Wall Street and tax increase for every one else.  Thus it can be argued this is one of the reasons that the older generation voted in Iowa, they like the system on the whole, and Hillary Clinton represents the Establishment.  And no tax hikes on the older generation.   It is going to be an interesting fight for the soul of the Democratic Party. 

Hillary Clinton WINS Iowa - Election 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports the following on the Clinton win in Iowa, " ..the narrow win, which follows a long night in which the two candidates remained deadlocked, means Clinton faces the prospect of an extended fight for the Democratic presidential nomination. She may have to wait until late February for a realistic chance to put a solid win in her column. Sanders holds a strong lead in New Hampshire, the next state to vote on February 9. "

Lets Get Real:

A WIN is a WIN, okay it was not a fantastic win, and having to throw a coin to see who won shows close the election was in Iowa.   In New Hampshire Senator Sanders has a strong lead, this is the time for the Clinton Machine to act, no one thinks that Clinton can win in NH, the Vermont Senator is often called the third Senator from New Hampshire, so this could be a chance to finish off Sanders, the Clinton machine should go for a victory, throw ALL it got for the week of the campaign, if Clinton can win and shut Sanders out, the race for for the White House would  not be that long.  In politics you have to gamble. 

Iowa Lates - Last Poll - Election 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports " Donald Trump is ahead of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders has a very narrow edge over Hillary Clinton, an Iowa poll released Monday shows just hours before caucusing begins. "

Lets Get Real:

The question has been asked, what happens should HRC lose Iowa and New Hampshire, does she have a firewall in the South, if Sanders can win Iowa and most of the other Caucusing States and over turn large Clinton leads in the South it could be a real fight, lets recall Clinton lost the 2008 nomination because the Obama Campaign has turned the Youth vote on and the Campaign used this to win other caucusing Staters, well we should know in a few hours.  You might need to place the coffee on tonight it could be a long night in IOWA. 

The Political Calendar - Election 2016 cycle

Telegraph - Politics Live from Iowa: Reports in its 6.28pm pst post the following, "

February 1:

 

 Iowa caucuses. First votes of primary election cast 

February 9:

 

New Hampshire primary

February 20:

 

Republican primary in South Carolina. Democratic caucuses in Nevada

February 23:

 

Republican caucuses in Nevada

February 27:

 

Democratic primary in South Carolina

March 1:

 

Super Tuesday. Thirteen states, many in the south-eastern US, go to the polls

March 15:

 

Super Tuesday part two. Five states, including Florida, go to the polls

June 7:

 

Last primary election. Five states, including California, go to the polls

July 18 to 21:

 

Republican National Convention

July 25 to 27:

 

Democratic National Convention

November 8:

 

Presidential election "

Lets Get Real:

This is just start of the process, we should know the winner of the Iowa caucuses by early Tuesday morning, the candidates then will travel to New Hampshire for the Primary on Feb 9th, if Clinton's loses both Iowa and New Hampshire then campaign will be long, hard, but HRC will win, as she has stated she has the African - American vote in South Carolina.  The we have a year of nearly constant politics, if your a political geek that is fantastic, if not move to Mars. 

Clinton, Obama vs Sanders - Election 2016

Guardian - Live Politics from Iowa: Reports in its 7.02pm post the following, " In a tweet from Clinton’s official Twitter account, she points to a 60 Minutes interview from 2013 after she stepped down as secretary of state, in which Obama called her “one of the finest secretary of states we’ve had.”...“I’m going to miss her. Wish she was sticking around ... But I want the country to appreciate just what an extraordinary role she’s played during the course of my administration and a lot of the successes we’ve had internationally have been because of her hard work.” "

Lets Get Real:

The Clinton Campaign  was to be seen as the successor to the Obama Administration when it comes to Democrats, that close a connection could harm HRC in the general election, with the exception of 1988 when Bush 41 was the successor to Reagan, the voters want something complete new or a different policy, thus being seen as Obama's third term could cost HRC the election.   Let's hope the Campaign gets that FACT or we could see a Trump or god forbid a Cruz Administration.   It depends how long the the Democratic race is, let's hope HRC wins Iowa and comes a close 2nd in New Hampshire and has a firewall in the Southern States. 

Iowa Latest - Election 2016

BBC News -Live from Iowa:  Reports in its 6.45pm post the following,  " Iowa residents who are hosting caucus events at their homes tonight tell me they are concerned that the weather will lead to a low turnout. In the rural parts of the state, caucuses are hosted in people’s private residences rather than in public buildings and driving distances can be quite long. "

Lets Get Real:

IF the weather is bad in Iowa then only the true followers will come out, this should help Hillary Clinton and Senator Ted Cruz, if on the other hand a large number of voters turn out this could have the flip result, this would help Donald Trump and Senator Sanders.   If the Des Moines Register is right the final result should be  a Trump and Clinton win, of course if they are right.  A surge of Senator Rubio could be on the cards, he has become the Establishment candidate to beat Trump, on the other side, if O'Malley supporters could decide the Democrat result, if a candidate does not get 15% in the first draw his supporters will have to move to either Clinton or Sanders.  This could be a very LONG NIGHT. 

The Clinton Email Scandal - Election 2016

Fox News: Reports " The intelligence community has now deemed some of Hillary Clinton’s emails “too damaging" to national security to release under any circumstances, according to a U.S. government official close to the ongoing review. A second source, who was not authorized to speak on the record, backed up the finding. " 

Lets Get Real: 

This could be the political IED that takes out the Clinton Campaign, if the FBI find that Secretary Clinton has broken the law with the use of a email server that was not secured it could place HRC before a Judge and Jury.   Of course considering the choice of a Sanders Presidency this blog hopes that the FBI or the Obama Department of Justice clears the Secretary of ALL charges, this blogger would buy a 2nd hand nuclear bunker should either Trump or Sanders win the Oval. 

The Republican Debate - Election 2016

Telegraph - US Politics Live: Has the following review of the Fox Presidential Debate, " A very successful stunt by Donald Trump to skip the debate and steal the headlines. But, in terms of who won the debate itself, Mr Trump's absence also helped Jeb Bush shine - he was unburdened, light-hearted and seemed to have a bit of energy back. It's still a long way back for the self-proclaimed "establishment candidate" though. Ted Cruz failed to handle the increased attention on him. Another of Mr Trump's rivals had a good night - Megyn Kelly was an excellent host. "

Lets Get Real:

The real question is can Jeb Bush use this success when it comes to votes on Monday night, at least without Trump around the other politicians could relax and debate real issues, Cruz by general agreement did not have a good night, ALL the other candidates went for him as Trump was missing.  Thus either Jeb Bush or Senator Rubio could be the Establishment choice to take on THE TRUMP, the question is what will be their vote share on Monday and how well they do in New Hampshire. 

The Republican Debate - Verdict

BBC News: Reports " With a few notable exceptions, all the candidates kept their balance and stayed on their talking points. It's as if the unconventional Trump's absence from the hall made everyone a bit more restrained and, well, political. "

The reviews are mixed, it seems Cruz got it the neck as he has been 2nd in most of the polls for Iowa, Rubio, Bush turned up at last.   The question is will the Donald Trump suffer for not attending the debate, that is up to the voters of Iowa, lets hope they teach the Donald a lesson, in life you have to turn up. thus even the great Gipper lost Iowa in 1980 but after that never failed to attend a debate.  The question is will Trump be a new Gipper who loses Iowa, but takes New Hampshire and later the Presidency, or Bush 41 who won Iowa but lost the Republican nomination to Reagan in 1980.  Time is ticking away before the Monday vote. 

Sanders vs. Clinton - Election 2016

Fox News: Reports " 'This is a lie': Sanders lashes out at 'negative' attacks, Clinton camp "

Lets Get Real:

The Democratic race is going dirty pool, the only result that matters is winning. IF Sanders can take Iowa and New Hampshire from Hillary Clinton he could really make it tough for Hilary to get the nomination.  On the other hand if HRC takes Iowa and comes in a close second in NH this should put Clinton the way to the White House, there is a firewall in South, in this case African - American voters, and the first African - American President has made it clear that he supports HRC, even if he did have an afternoon meeting with Senator Sanders.   Thus it matters who wins Iowa, it could decide the political future of HRC. 

The Donald vs. Fox News

Donald Trump Campaign:  Has released the following statement: " As someone who wrote one of the best-selling business books of all time, The Art of the Deal, who has built an incredible company, including some of the most valuable and iconic assets in the world, and as someone who has a personal net worth of many billions of dollars, Mr. Trump knows a bad deal when he sees one. FOX News is making tens of millions of dollars on debates, and setting ratings records (the highest in history), where as in previous years they were low-rated afterthoughts. 

Unlike the very stupid, highly incompetent people running our country into the ground, Mr. Trump knows when to walk away. Roger Ailes and FOX News think they can toy with him, but Mr. Trump doesn’t play games. There have already been six debates, and according to all online debate polls including Drudge, Slate, Time Magazine, and many others, Mr. Trump has won all of them, in particular the last one. Whereas he has always been a job creator and not a debater, he nevertheless truly enjoys the debating process - and it has been very good for him, both in polls and popularity. 

He will not be participating in the FOX News debate and will instead host an event in Iowa to raise money for the Veterans and Wounded Warriors, who have been treated so horribly by our all talk, no action politicians. Like running for office as an extremely successful person, this takes guts and it is the kind of mentality our country needs in order to Make America Great Again. "

Lets Get Real:

This blog can not tell if the move by Donald Trump will become a hit or might cost him the Iowa caucus.   The voters like it when candidates take on the press, but this is different, its personal, its the Donald vs. Ms Kelly of Fox News.   The day a news outlet allows candidates to decide who will present a debate is the day that channel is no longer a real news channel.  Fox News has backed up Ms Kelly as it should, one can argue that this issue should have resolved before the debate, or was Trump looking for a way out, he leads the pack by double digits, why put that at risk with debate.  The voters of Iowa will decide the real winner. 

Clinton on Trump - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports on Hillary Clinton's comments on Donald Trump, while she praised President Lincoln, "  Mrs Clinton was much less generous about present-day Republicans and issued a blistering moral condemnation of Donald Trump's call for a ban on Muslims entering the when a Muslim woman wearing Islamic head-covering asked for assurance that America was the best place to raise her three children. "

Lets Get Real:

This is why should the Republicans nominate Trump that this blog will support HRC, she called Trump out on his racist comments, the rest of the Republican field with the exception of Jeb Bush have let the issue go, while Bush has called Trump a jerk,  but in political reality the Bush Campaign is OVER, the only real threat to Trump is Cruz, not one Republican Senator has come out in support of Cruz, he is that hated by the Republican Establishment. Thus lets hope Senator Rubio of Florida can make Iowa lean towards him, otherwise its a Trump vs Clinton match up. 

The Polls 2016 and Iowa - Election 2016

Guardian - US Politics Live: Reports the following polls, on the National race for Republicans and for Iowa, " A CNN/ORC poll out today shows Donald Trump polling at 41%nationally while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz trails at a mere 19%. ...Today’s Quinnipiac University poll of Iowa voters has Trump polling at 31% and Cruz at 29%. "

Lets Get Real:

It can be said that Donald Trump has the national lead by a wide margin, the question is can he run the board, that is take Iowa and New Hampshire and then the South, if Cruz can win by a small margin that will keep his campaign alive for more Conservative States, but then Cruz has to win, if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire it can be argued that he is finished.  Thus its down to the voters of Iowa, one can only hope that they go for a moderate like Rubio, the Florida Senator, but that is more of a leap of faith than political reality.   The next few days are going to see a lot polls, just keep the average in mind, long shot polls need to be confirmed by other polls. 

Obama, Clinton vs Sanders - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports " President Barack Obama has stepped in to shore up Hillary Clinton amid signs of panic that she could lose the first two states in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. "

Lets Get Real:

The Democratic Establishment is SCARED stiff by the prospect that Senator Sanders could be their nominee, they understand they could lose ALL 50 States in November 2016.   Thus expect more help for the Clinton Camp, the Oval is not neutral it wants to see HRC win, it will payback for Bill Clinton for helping the Obama/Biden Campaign in 2012.   Thus one can expect the elite liberal press to start going after Sanders, they take their orders from the Democratic Party.   Thus we have a campaign about the future of the Democratic Party, Clinton is the past, while Sanders is a 60s relic and very left wing.