The Republican Debate - Election 2016

Telegraph - US Politics Live: Has the following review of the Fox Presidential Debate, " A very successful stunt by Donald Trump to skip the debate and steal the headlines. But, in terms of who won the debate itself, Mr Trump's absence also helped Jeb Bush shine - he was unburdened, light-hearted and seemed to have a bit of energy back. It's still a long way back for the self-proclaimed "establishment candidate" though. Ted Cruz failed to handle the increased attention on him. Another of Mr Trump's rivals had a good night - Megyn Kelly was an excellent host. "

Lets Get Real:

The real question is can Jeb Bush use this success when it comes to votes on Monday night, at least without Trump around the other politicians could relax and debate real issues, Cruz by general agreement did not have a good night, ALL the other candidates went for him as Trump was missing.  Thus either Jeb Bush or Senator Rubio could be the Establishment choice to take on THE TRUMP, the question is what will be their vote share on Monday and how well they do in New Hampshire. 

The Debate Ratings - Election 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports on who won the ratings in the Presidential debate, " Answer: Fox's debate. But it was the second lowest rated debate of the season. So Trump is certain to take credit for hurting the channel's total viewership. "

Lets Get Real:

At least serious candidates to be POTUS took to the Fox debate, the elephant in the room Donald Trump had his how show and he lost the ratings.   One can only hope that the voters of Iowa punish Trump for his move to snub the debate.   The Republican Establishment has to pick a serious candidate and back him up with money and support, there is only one real choice, that is Senator Rubio, it sad to say that Jeb Bush has left it to late, lets hope Rubio gains from his strong presence at the debate. 

The Republican Debate - Verdict

BBC News: Reports " With a few notable exceptions, all the candidates kept their balance and stayed on their talking points. It's as if the unconventional Trump's absence from the hall made everyone a bit more restrained and, well, political. "

The reviews are mixed, it seems Cruz got it the neck as he has been 2nd in most of the polls for Iowa, Rubio, Bush turned up at last.   The question is will the Donald Trump suffer for not attending the debate, that is up to the voters of Iowa, lets hope they teach the Donald a lesson, in life you have to turn up. thus even the great Gipper lost Iowa in 1980 but after that never failed to attend a debate.  The question is will Trump be a new Gipper who loses Iowa, but takes New Hampshire and later the Presidency, or Bush 41 who won Iowa but lost the Republican nomination to Reagan in 1980.  Time is ticking away before the Monday vote. 

Is Doctor Ben Carson a racist? - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " US Republican presidential hopeful Ben Carson says he does not believe a Muslim should become president. "

Lets Get Real:

The above remark is racist, one will be interested to see if the liberal press in the US go after Carson because of the remark, the liberal press is loathed to go after African - Americans if they say something racist, of course the exception could be if its a Republican African - American.   This blog had moved to support Dr Carson after the last debate, that is revoked, one should judge a candidate for President by his or her character, not the colour of their skin or what faith the follow.   Thus this blog is going back to supporting Jeb Bush, just wish Bush had more fire in the belly.   Otherwise at the end if its a choice between Trump or Clinton, this blog will support HRC. 

The raise of Carly - 2016 Election

BBC News: Reports on the Republican Presidential Debate at the Ronald Reagan Library, it notes the following on Carly Florina,  " She proved she belonged on the big stage. And could she prove to be Trump's kryptonite? "

Lets Get Real:

The best time to consider a debate result is after a good night sleep, as the debate was on at a early morning in the UK, this blogger watched the first hour then later in the morning, the question this blogger asked is what could I recall of the debate.    In the view of this blogger the best lines came from Trump and Bush, when they were asked what would be their Secret Service codename, Bush went with Eveready, while Trump went with Humble. In many respects this shows what the candidates were really think, Bush looked more on form last night, like he had fresh batteries, going after Trump for bringing in his wife in to the debate about immigration.  While Trump it can be argued was trying not to look an ego maniac, it worked for the debate.   On the verdict of the BBC on Carly Florina she could be a real contender, lets see the polls after a few days, while Dr Carson was his quite self. 

Trump has NO SHAME - Election 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports " Donald Trump said Monday that Fox News anchor and debate moderator Megyn Kelly should be the one apologizing to him, and not the other way around.  "She should really be apologizing to me, to tell the truth," Trump told MSNBC's "Morning Joe." "

Lets Get Real:

Trump has NO SHAME, he is doing a Obama, doubling down on a mistake, one does have to wonder either Trump understands the American voter better than all the writers in page and TV or Trump is the mad one with ten billion, while the voter is asleep at the wheel.   At this moment this blog is not sure which of the above is right.   One would have thought that Trump would have allowed the issue to drop, but no he wants the apology not the other way around, one really has to consider that Mr Trump could win the nomination of the Republican Party, that would be a disaster for the Republican Party and the US.  In that case support HRC. 

The Hillary Campaign - STARTS Sunday - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to announce she is running for president on Sunday, various US media report. "

Lets Get Real:

The 2016 Campaign starts on Sunday with the news that Hillary Clinton will announce that she is running for President again.   The US political race will be full of polls for the Republican side, there seems no REAL challenge to Hillary, one doubts that Vice - President Biden will want to put his head on the block, this time the Clintons means business, any challenger better win, because this time the Clintons are not taking prisoners.    At least A President Hillary Clinton will be tougher, the Clinton Camp has welcomed the deal between the US and Iran but reserve the right to refuse to support it should the talks fail.    This blog has made it clear, if the the Republicans do not nominate Jeb Bush then this blog will support the Clintons, they understand real politics and the price of winning. 

How WILL History rate President Obama - 2nd Term Blues

The New York Times:  Reports on the outcome of the President Obama's State of the Union speech, " ..coming off a midterm election defeat that handed full control of Congress to Republicans, the president faces long odds in actually enacting his agenda and in essence is trying to frame the debate for his remaining time in power and for the emerging 2016 contest to succeed him. "

Lets Get Real:

This State of the Union speech is about 2016, the Oval Office knows that since VP Biden wont be the Democratic nominee he wants some influence with Hillary Clinton as the nominee.    FAT CHANCE, there will be only one ex President that gets the ear of Hillary Clinton if she is the nominee, yes the Big old dog himself, Bill Clinton, if the Clintons are in power President Obama can sing for supper or any influence with the Clintons, when you call someone a racist and its Bill Clinton expect political revenge served cold.   Also as stated as the economy returns the old left wing argument for taxes will have less power, the very success of the US economy could thwart the Obama Agenda.   

Romney and 2016 - 2nd Term Blues

CNN - Politics: Reports " Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney acknowledged Friday that he is once again considering running for the Republican presidential nomination, declaring that the country is in worse shape on both the domestic and foreign fronts since President Barack Obama took office. "

Lets Get Real:

It can be argued that either Bush or Romney could make it a good political fight against Hillary Clinton, all the candidates have a BRAND name, thus half the fight will not have to be fought, on the Republican side, Bush has the foundations of the Administrations of his father and brother, while Romney has been a candidate in 2008 and 2012.  On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton has her record as New York Senator and the US Secretary of State in the 1st Obama Administration.  Then there is her role for eight years and the First Lady of the US.   It does give the 2016 election the feel of a battle of political dynasties.   The question is WHO will WIN. 

Obama and the US Congress - 2nd Term Blues

Guardian: Reports " White House pushes Obama tax plan as Republicans line up to voice opposition..Announcement comes ahead of Tuesday’s State of the Union address, where president will outline $320bn plan to help struggling middle class "

Lets Get Real: 

This move by the Oval Office will allow Republican Candidates to appeal to the right of the Party, they will be opposed to such a tax move, the idea has benefits and negatives for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton must make sure that she is seen to support the move, but not to close in case the idea goes down like a brick with the US VOTER.  In other words both sides will play Obama agenda for their own political agenda.   The tax idea itself is not going anywhere, the Republicans will not pass it and the Oval Office can not write it in to law.  This Obama trying to to tie the Democratic Nominee in 2016 to HIS agenda, and cause problems for the Republicans.   The Oval Office missed the mid term elections, the US voter has shown its opinion of the 2nd Obama term, and its not very good if your a Democrat. 

State of the Union Address, Tax Hikes from Obama - 2nd Term Blues

BBC News: Reports " President Obama is to use Tuesday's State of the Union speech to call for tax increases on the wealthy to help the middle class, officials say. "

Lets Get Real:

In simple words this idea from POTUS on tax hikes is not going to happen, the Republicans now control the Senate and House, the Oval can not force tax hikes and it is not within his power to make then happen without Congressional authority.    This is POTUS playing to the left wing base of the Democratic Party, the Oval knows this is not going to happen, their radar can not be that faulty.   In the past the Oval could use the Senate to get its idea through, this is no longer an option, as the Republicans have retaken the House.    This is an ode to the left wing of the Democratic Party, nothing more that smoking mirrors. 

The Republican Race for President - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports " Mike Huckabee shakes up crowded 2016 Republican field with White House move..The Evangelical social conservative quits TV show to ponder presidential run "

Lets Get Real:

This is what Jeb Bush needs, as long as the Conservative vote in the Republican Primary fight is split among various candidates he can come through in the middle.  That is not to say Huckabee can not win, he is good on TV and is a evangelical conservative, he might even be a good VP to Bush.    This is very early, more candidates the better, looks like an interesting Republican race.   Also it can be expected that Governor Perry of Texas will run, as he has finished his term, also Senator Cruz of Texas.  Senator Paul the Republican has a problem, he can't run for re-election and run for the President in his home State.   There are many more candidates but the above are the front runners. 

Is Jeb Bush the NEXT President ? - 2016 Presidential Election

BBC News: Reports " Former Florida governor Jeb Bush has reportedly scaled back his business commitments as he thinks seriously about a White House run. "

Lets Get Real:

The one plus for Jeb Bush should he face Hillary Clinton is that the Democrats can not use the charge that Bush Family is becoming a Dynasty, as Hillary Clinton is the wife of President Clinton and served as Secretary of State in the first Obama Administration.   As of now Jeb Bush is the front runner, it can be expected that Senator Paul and Governor Christie will also run, this works for Bush as it will split the vote and thus help his campaign, the Conservative Republicans will split their vote thus allowing Bush or either Governor Christie to come through.   It has been argued that more Republican candidates suites Jeb Bush, interesting and right theory.  The base the Conservative core will see Bush as to moderate on education and immigration, thus in the early stages they will test out different candidates, the more room for the Bush strategy to come through in the middle.   Two years to go in till new President in the Oval. 

Obama and Syria Part 3 - 2nd Term Blues

Telegraph: Reports " As Islamic State militants continue to tighten their grip on Syria, senior US officials say the White House is now actively weighing options for expanding airstrikes into Syria "

Lets Get Real:

All politics is local as a famous Democrat Speaker once said, thus how will any US strikes effect US politics in the short and long term, the left of the Democratic Party will go nuts, the Oval should have the support of Republicans and moderates, the US voter on the other hand is WAR WEARY, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya now Syria, it never seems to end, endless War, also if there is blowback the Mid Terms could be a disaster for the Oval, liberal and left wing voters might not go out to vote, thus helping Republicans gain the Senate.   The political name calling has already started, Senator Paul has called Secretary Clinton a WAR HAWK, yes a Republican calling a Democrat that, that should help in the military States.    If the Wars are still going badly in 2016 and the Republican nominee is for less or no American action he could win, being called a War Hawk might not go down well with weary voters.   That is for the future, we shall see what develops. 

Hillary Clinton and 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports " Hillary Clinton will headline Sen. Tom Harkin's Iowa Steak Fry, a Democratic source familiar with the event tells CNN, a move the steps up Clinton's political activity ahead of the 2016 presidential race. "

Lets Get Real:

If is official in a unofficial way that Hillary Clinton is running for 2016, all the moves, the distance from President Obama, this speech in Iowa is a clear signal that Clinton is running,  the Clinton Camp has to make sure that Hillary spends more time in Iowa, she came 3rd in Iowa in the last run in 2008.    Thus after the book tour the Clintons should move to Iowa, well rent a place, the people of the first States to vote in the nomination process like to get to know the candidates, they have seen candidates come and go, they like to see the real person behind the Campaign, also Hillary has to be careful of a challenge from her left, she has moved centre right on Foreign Policy, that was her mistake in 2008, the Democratic Base is very left wing, so in the primary process she can not ditch Obama to early but after in the General she can move hard right on Foreign Policy and centre on domestic policy.   Lets hope the Republicans chose a wise candidate, and not Senator Paul, if he is the choice of the Republicans this blog will support Hillary Clinton. 

Monica and that dress - Clinton Era

BBC News: Reports the following on Monica Lewinsky , " The one-time White House intern whose affair with President Bill Clinton led to his impeachment in the US Senate has broken her long silence in the media. "

Lets Get Real:

Monica Lewinsky is the woman who almost bought down President Clinton in 1998, their affair made headlines around the World, it was her word against his in till she produced that dress that confirmed that an affair had taken place.   Its odd this blog is only a few years older than Ms Lewinsky, the Clinton Era feels  a life time ago, the 1990s, the US was going through an economic boom, the US lead the Western alliance, and its leader Bill Clinton could not help himself, he had an affair, then denied that affair for months in till the polls changed in his favour.   The Lewinksy scandal has come back to life because of the good chance that former Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2016, thus the shadow of the old dog comes in to question, how will Republicans deal with the issue, Jeb Bush it can be expected will not bring it up, while others who really want the nomination will take the issue and make it a major issue.   Lets be honest Al Gore lost in 2000 because of the scandal, he should have won, Bill Clinton has a lot to answer for on the political front. 

The Benghazi EFFECT and Hillary Clinton - 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports on a new Quinnnipiac University Poll that shows that Hillary Clinton's favourable ratings have taken a hit, the article notes that the poll has found that Hillary gone from a 61% favourable rating down to 52%.

Lets Get Real:

The White House has thrown Hillary Clinton under the bus folks, someone has to take the fall for the Benghazi terrorist attack. the first US Ambassador killed in over 30 years, the emails released by the Obama White House shows the Clinton State Department had a role in white washing the policy of  the US after the attack.   The Clinton Camp has made a mistake when it stated that Hillary Clinton would not serve a 2nd term as US Secretary of State, the Clinton Camp can not divert attention, in essence Hillary Clinton does not have a job, if she does have a job it is running in 2016, this blog is starting to have doubts that she will run, there are to many weak spots in the Clinton Machine, the terrorist attack in Benghazi is the most major, the time for Hillary Clinton to have won the nomination was in 2008, she failed.   Although Mrs Clinton will be the same age as Ronald Reagan when he won his 1st Term, the harsh fact is that Hillary Clinton is NO Reagan, worse she is no Bill Clinton, her time might have just passed folks, political destiny is a cruel taskmaster, sometimes it only gives a candidate that once chance, that was 2008 for Clinton. 

Paul for 2016 ?- Presidential Election 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports that Senator Rand Paul has teased his voters he might run in 2016 Presidential race.

Lets Get Real:

The election cycle in the US started the day after President Obama had his 2nd Inauguration, the Presidents 2nd term in political terms has about six months or less to get anything real and important through the Congress, thus Immigration Reform needs a push, otherwise political pressure will start to mean that those in Congress thinking about running in 2016 will start to court Republican Primary voters, and they are quite Conservative.  As for the Democrats they have a problem, ObamaCare starts to come in to force this year, and its enforced by the IRS, the very same IRS under a scandal cloud for its attack on Tea Party and Republican supporters.    The leading candidate for the Democrats is former First Lady, Senator and of late the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the former Secretary has a problem, that is called LIBYA, the House Republicans will go after her for her actions the night of the murder of the US Ambassador in Libya, it looks like the White House is starting to throw Hillary Clinton under the bus, although Clinton has very high approval ratings NOW, polls go and up and down, thus folks its quite an open race in 2016 on the Republican and Democratic side, one can not wait for those match up polls, the margin of error etc, fun times   ahead folks. 

Good Night for Romney - Three WINS

BBC News: Reports on Governor Mitt Romney winning Maryland, Wisconsin and the District of Colombia in the Republican Nomination fight. Folks this fight is over, as this blog stated last night in its tweets its time for Senator Santorum to start thinking of 2016, if Romney does lose against President Obama and that lost is seen in part due to the long fight with Santorum it will be hard for Santorum to get the nomination in 2016. As Speaker Gingrich does not matter in electoral terms it does not really hurt him either way, in or out, one cant see Gingrich running in 2016. The Republican Party has to come together to support Romney, its going to be a Chicago no hold fights folks, the Chicago political mob play dirty, time for the Republicans to stop firing at each other and start to take on President Obama and his Administration.

Santorum WINS Louisiana - 2012 Republican Race

CNN Politics: Reports that Senator Rick Santorum has won the Primary in the Southern State of Louisiana, the Senator beat Romney by 49% to 27% . This race is over folks, the Republican Nominee will be Governor Romney, it can be argued that he might not have all the delegates he needs by the Republican Convention, this is why they have backroom deals, thus either way Romney is the Republican Nominee. This blog did think that ex Senator Santorum wanted the VP spot, but since he is still in the race this is not going to happen, the Romney Campaign wants this race finished, they want to start their Campaign against President Obama, they cant as long as Santorum is still biting at the ankles of Romney. Thus one can expect if Romney is a few delegates short for Congressman Paul to allow some of his delegates to put Romney over the top, in return he get a prime time TV address, also his son Senator Paul will bet some bonus points within the Republican Party if he ever runs for the Presidency.