The Trump Surge - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " The latest poll by Monmouth University puts Mr Trump way ahead with support from 30% of Republicans, and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson running a distant second with 18%.  "

Lets Get Real:

It has been interesting that the Clinton Camp has been critical of Jeb Bush but so far has not gone on the attack with it comes to Donald Trump, could be that Trump does attack back, and the Clinton Camp is worried how far he might go, lets face it he has the money to outspend the Clintons.   It is only September but it looks llike that Trump is running away with the nomination.   The rest of the Republican candidates have to start to take on Trump, otherwise the Republican nomination fight is over and Donald Trump with be the Republican Candidate for President. 

Trump NOT to RUN as a THIRD Party Candidate - 2016 Election

Guardian: Reports " Donald Trump signs pledge not to run as independent..GOP frontrunner meets with Republican National Committee chair on Thursday to sign pledge vowing to support Republican nominee for the White House  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus this keeps Trump out of the Republican race should he lose the nomination fight.  Of course he has to lose that fight, thus far he is winning, when will the Bush Camp show some fire in the belly  and take out Trump.   The candidates with lower share of the vote should start to considering leaving the race as to allow the anti Trump Camp to form around one candidate.   That could be either Jeb Bush or Dr Ben Carson.   It would be a nightmare to have Trump as POTUS, that would be worse that the present Obama Presidency.   The Clinton Campaign has to get the email mess out of the news, so far it has not had much success.    At this rate it willl not be a rerun of the 1992 race. 

The Trump Factor - Election 2016

Guardian: Reports " Donald Trump puts third-party run on back burner as poll lead balloons..Trump tells conservative radio show he would rather not run independent campaign, as poll released on Thursday puts him 16 points clear of Ben Carson  "

Lets Get Real:

The Bush campaign has to up its game, the Donald is running away with the nomination, they have to spend their hundred million of dollars in taking down Donald Trump, one can assume after his comments on women that the Trump will lose a majority of the female vote in 2016, his immigration plan will lose with those of an ethnic background, how can you throw out millions of people, it is not American.    On the other side Biden IF he is getting in to the race has to act, Iowa is not that far away in election terms, also there is the need for money.   2016 in its own right could be a very interesting race. 

Trump has NO SHAME - Election 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports " Donald Trump said Monday that Fox News anchor and debate moderator Megyn Kelly should be the one apologizing to him, and not the other way around.  "She should really be apologizing to me, to tell the truth," Trump told MSNBC's "Morning Joe." "

Lets Get Real:

Trump has NO SHAME, he is doing a Obama, doubling down on a mistake, one does have to wonder either Trump understands the American voter better than all the writers in page and TV or Trump is the mad one with ten billion, while the voter is asleep at the wheel.   At this moment this blog is not sure which of the above is right.   One would have thought that Trump would have allowed the issue to drop, but no he wants the apology not the other way around, one really has to consider that Mr Trump could win the nomination of the Republican Party, that would be a disaster for the Republican Party and the US.  In that case support HRC. 

Trump STILL a WINNER - Election 2016

NBC News: Reports on the following poll after the Republican Debate and the spat between Trump and Megan Kelly of Fox News, " ..Trump from coming in at the top of the poll with 23 percent. Sen. Ted Cruz was next on the list with 13 percent. "

Lets Get Real:

It seems Americans like a WINNER, no matter if he is not Presidential, one would think after the Kelly row that Trump would sink in the polls, af now that has not happened, lets see what other polls say, the thought of Trump as the Republican nominee makes this Conservative shudder at the prospect, the Bush political machine needs to get in to action, lets see the other Republicans attack Trump, otherwise this blog is supporting HRC. 

Jeb Bush on Donald Trump - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports the following, " Jeb Bush 'called Donald Trump an a******' in private rant..

According to a report Mr Bush made disparaging remarks about his rival for the Republican presidential nomination "

Lets Get Real:

It seems that Jeb Bush might not be ready for prime time, if the above is true is shows that Governor Bush allows others to get under his skin, Donald Trump was supposed to have blown it  by now, but he still in the race.   It depends how Trump and Bush do tonight, after his mistakes with Clinton and Trump, one would think that Governor Bush would be more careful and not allow the big persona of Tumper to get under his skin.   Lets recall Bush 41 was Vice - President to Ronald Reagan and was a very loyal VP, being in that spot means always being in the shadow of POTUS.  It was rewarded with the Presidency in 1988, Jeb Bush should learn from his father.  The attack dog of any campaign in the Vice - President, the candidates have to shown they want the job but also that they can be Presidential. 

The Two Republican Debate - Election 2016

Fox News: There are two Republican debates tonight, one at 5pm and one at 9pm, the main one is at 9pm, this has ten of the candidates with the best poll ratings with Republicans, the article states the following on the first debate, " Syndicated columnist and Washington Examiner chief political correspondent Byron York wrote that the 5 p.m. debate provides opportunities for candidates for several reasons. Namely, Trump won't be on the stage dominating attention, it will be less personality-driven, and the winner of the debate will get momentum.  "

Lets Get Real:

This blog will be watching both debates to see how Governor Perry does in the first debate, after his disaster the last time when he could not name the Government Departments he wanted to close down, lets hope he is up to speed, he could be a real challenge if he ups his game tonight.  Then we come to the main EVENT, how will Donald Trump do with the rest of the pack at his heels, will he remain cool, and above the fight or will he allow the other candidates to get under his skin.   Also it is time for Governor Jeb Bush to show he can hack it, he has gotten in to a fight with HRC that did not need to happen, he has to to ready to take the fight to Trump, or Senator Rubio could come from behind as the main challenge to Trump.  The Debate is late in the UK, you will need a lot of coffee, its a two hour debate.  

The Hillary Campaign - STARTS Sunday - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to announce she is running for president on Sunday, various US media report. "

Lets Get Real:

The 2016 Campaign starts on Sunday with the news that Hillary Clinton will announce that she is running for President again.   The US political race will be full of polls for the Republican side, there seems no REAL challenge to Hillary, one doubts that Vice - President Biden will want to put his head on the block, this time the Clintons means business, any challenger better win, because this time the Clintons are not taking prisoners.    At least A President Hillary Clinton will be tougher, the Clinton Camp has welcomed the deal between the US and Iran but reserve the right to refuse to support it should the talks fail.    This blog has made it clear, if the the Republicans do not nominate Jeb Bush then this blog will support the Clintons, they understand real politics and the price of winning. 

How WILL History rate President Obama - 2nd Term Blues

The New York Times:  Reports on the outcome of the President Obama's State of the Union speech, " ..coming off a midterm election defeat that handed full control of Congress to Republicans, the president faces long odds in actually enacting his agenda and in essence is trying to frame the debate for his remaining time in power and for the emerging 2016 contest to succeed him. "

Lets Get Real:

This State of the Union speech is about 2016, the Oval Office knows that since VP Biden wont be the Democratic nominee he wants some influence with Hillary Clinton as the nominee.    FAT CHANCE, there will be only one ex President that gets the ear of Hillary Clinton if she is the nominee, yes the Big old dog himself, Bill Clinton, if the Clintons are in power President Obama can sing for supper or any influence with the Clintons, when you call someone a racist and its Bill Clinton expect political revenge served cold.   Also as stated as the economy returns the old left wing argument for taxes will have less power, the very success of the US economy could thwart the Obama Agenda.   

Romney and 2016 - 2nd Term Blues

CNN - Politics: Reports " Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney acknowledged Friday that he is once again considering running for the Republican presidential nomination, declaring that the country is in worse shape on both the domestic and foreign fronts since President Barack Obama took office. "

Lets Get Real:

It can be argued that either Bush or Romney could make it a good political fight against Hillary Clinton, all the candidates have a BRAND name, thus half the fight will not have to be fought, on the Republican side, Bush has the foundations of the Administrations of his father and brother, while Romney has been a candidate in 2008 and 2012.  On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton has her record as New York Senator and the US Secretary of State in the 1st Obama Administration.  Then there is her role for eight years and the First Lady of the US.   It does give the 2016 election the feel of a battle of political dynasties.   The question is WHO will WIN. 

Obama and the US Congress - 2nd Term Blues

Guardian: Reports " White House pushes Obama tax plan as Republicans line up to voice opposition..Announcement comes ahead of Tuesday’s State of the Union address, where president will outline $320bn plan to help struggling middle class "

Lets Get Real: 

This move by the Oval Office will allow Republican Candidates to appeal to the right of the Party, they will be opposed to such a tax move, the idea has benefits and negatives for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton must make sure that she is seen to support the move, but not to close in case the idea goes down like a brick with the US VOTER.  In other words both sides will play Obama agenda for their own political agenda.   The tax idea itself is not going anywhere, the Republicans will not pass it and the Oval Office can not write it in to law.  This Obama trying to to tie the Democratic Nominee in 2016 to HIS agenda, and cause problems for the Republicans.   The Oval Office missed the mid term elections, the US voter has shown its opinion of the 2nd Obama term, and its not very good if your a Democrat. 

State of the Union Address, Tax Hikes from Obama - 2nd Term Blues

BBC News: Reports " President Obama is to use Tuesday's State of the Union speech to call for tax increases on the wealthy to help the middle class, officials say. "

Lets Get Real:

In simple words this idea from POTUS on tax hikes is not going to happen, the Republicans now control the Senate and House, the Oval can not force tax hikes and it is not within his power to make then happen without Congressional authority.    This is POTUS playing to the left wing base of the Democratic Party, the Oval knows this is not going to happen, their radar can not be that faulty.   In the past the Oval could use the Senate to get its idea through, this is no longer an option, as the Republicans have retaken the House.    This is an ode to the left wing of the Democratic Party, nothing more that smoking mirrors. 

The Republican Race for President - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports " Mike Huckabee shakes up crowded 2016 Republican field with White House move..The Evangelical social conservative quits TV show to ponder presidential run "

Lets Get Real:

This is what Jeb Bush needs, as long as the Conservative vote in the Republican Primary fight is split among various candidates he can come through in the middle.  That is not to say Huckabee can not win, he is good on TV and is a evangelical conservative, he might even be a good VP to Bush.    This is very early, more candidates the better, looks like an interesting Republican race.   Also it can be expected that Governor Perry of Texas will run, as he has finished his term, also Senator Cruz of Texas.  Senator Paul the Republican has a problem, he can't run for re-election and run for the President in his home State.   There are many more candidates but the above are the front runners. 

Paul for 2016 ?- Presidential Election 2016

CNN - Politics: Reports that Senator Rand Paul has teased his voters he might run in 2016 Presidential race.

Lets Get Real:

The election cycle in the US started the day after President Obama had his 2nd Inauguration, the Presidents 2nd term in political terms has about six months or less to get anything real and important through the Congress, thus Immigration Reform needs a push, otherwise political pressure will start to mean that those in Congress thinking about running in 2016 will start to court Republican Primary voters, and they are quite Conservative.  As for the Democrats they have a problem, ObamaCare starts to come in to force this year, and its enforced by the IRS, the very same IRS under a scandal cloud for its attack on Tea Party and Republican supporters.    The leading candidate for the Democrats is former First Lady, Senator and of late the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the former Secretary has a problem, that is called LIBYA, the House Republicans will go after her for her actions the night of the murder of the US Ambassador in Libya, it looks like the White House is starting to throw Hillary Clinton under the bus, although Clinton has very high approval ratings NOW, polls go and up and down, thus folks its quite an open race in 2016 on the Republican and Democratic side, one can not wait for those match up polls, the margin of error etc, fun times   ahead folks. 

Perry OUT - Republican Race

BBC News: Reports that Texas Governor Rick Perry has announced that he is out of the Republican Race and is supporting Speaker Newt Gingrich. This is good news for the former House Speaker, but he has a new problem, his former Wife has given an interview that could damage his Campaign, the article states that the former Speaker wanted an Open Marriage, in other words allowing him to have affairs. This could hurt him with Christians in South Carolina, but it can be argued that voters in SC are going to support a winner in the shape of Governor Mitt Romney, if Romney wins big on Saturday folks this race is over, the Republican Party wants to start fighting POTUS, not more months of internal battles that helps President Obama.

Romney and the Republican Debate

Telegraph: Reports the following on the debate performance of Governor Mitt Romney, “ ..gave his weakest performance of the 16 debates so far.. ”. There is another debate Thursday folks, lets see the polls for the next 24 hours to 48 hours, does Romney go up por down, can Gingrich claw himself to equal level with Romney. At least Romney from reports didn’t have the disaster that Governor Perry had in early debates, but events move fast, from Gingrich calling POTUS a Food Stamp President, one can expect that to be set up as a political advert by the Gingrich Campaign an his Super Pac, the audience at the debate really showed their support when Gingrich went after the Oval.

Republican Debate in South Carolina

BBC News: Reports that Republican frontrunner Governor Mitt Romney came under attack for his business and State government record at the Republican Debate. The one good clip this blog saw was when Newt Gingrich called President Obama a food stamps President, this was the former Speaker on good form, attacking POTUS not his Republican rivals. When it comes to the Polls in SC you take your pick, some have a close race between Romney and Gingrich, while others show Romney with a vast lead. After winning Iowa, NH if Romney takes SC with a big enough margin this race is over in real terms, the former Speaker will go because he wants revenge on Romney, while the cranky Congressman Paul wants some power at the Republican Convention. If this is the result then Romney must turn his Campaign to fighting Obama, as the Chicago re-elect committee wont wait for the conventions, once its sure that its Romney expect a heavy negative attack, they will follow the 1996 Bill Clinton playbook, define your opposition before he can define himself. Its tough but its Democracy folks.

Republican Debate - Review

BBC News: Reports on the Republican Debate in New Hampshire, the winner the article states was Governor Mitt Romney, while the rest of the Candidates attacked each other, Governor Romney attacked President Obama’s record. The State of New Hampshire is a LOCK for Romney, the question is how much he wins by, and who comes second, if the win is double digits this will be good for the Romney, also if Congressman Paul comes second, on the other hand, should the win be in single digits and Santorum comes second the review will be different, it could allow Santorum to confirm that he is the main Conservative challenger to Romney. Tuesday is very important folks, it could in many respects conform Romney as the Republican nominee or create a long race for the nomination between Romney and Santorum.

New Hampshire Polls - RCP

RCP: Reports on its average of the New Hampshire polls, leading is Governor Romney on 40.0%, while Congressman Paul is on 18.7%, while way back is Newt Gingrich on 11.3%. Thus folks NH is a lock for Romney, Santorum in the average only has 4.3%, of course there might be an upswing for Santorum in NH, but due to the vote being on Tuesday, and the need for a good field operation to get the vote out it can be argued that Santorum should use his new money in South Carolina, if Romney can take SC then this race is over folks. If the Conservatives want to stop Romney they have to spend their Super Pac money in SC in support of one candidate, they have to pick, very short time folks. It has been argued that SC is the firewall for Conservatives to stop Romney, well folks the time has arrived, time for the Conservatives to pick a Candidate, Santorum, Perry, Gingrich, otherwise time to get on the Romney train.

The Spotlight on New Hampshire

BBC News: Reports that former US Senator Rick Santorum has stated he has seen in increase in donations to his Campaign. On Fox News Senator Santorum stated that since his victory in Iowa, the Santorum Campaign has raised over a million dollars, that’s quite impressive folks, but can the Senator develop a ground operation in New Hampshire and South Carolina in time for their votes. The Romney Campaign has been at this for years, also the Conservative vote is split between Santorum, Gingrich and Perry, thus a victory is made easier for Governor Romney. Lets be honest here folks, very honest, Congressman Paul is not going to win the Republican nomination with his Foreign Policy to the left of President Obama, thus the path to the nomination for Romney is not without risks, but if you bet, you would bet on Romney for the nomination and Santorum for the VP spot.