Who will Biden chose as his VP? - US 2020 Presidential Election

BBC News: Reports " Joe Biden extends lead over rival Sanders in Democratic presidential race "

Lets Get Real:

Thus as stated in my post on Monday, Biden took Michigan and is on the way to become the Democratic Nominee, the next step for Biden, is who will be his VP.  It can be taken for granted that Biden has the African - American vote, and more so when Obama comes out to support him.  Thus a President Biden is looking for a younger VP, one that brings something to the table,  thus Beto can bring Texas into play, while Kamala Harris would bring in ethnic vote, also she is a tough former Prosecutor, that always looks good in a general election.  Thus this blog's favourite candidate for the post, Mayor Pete, he  is gay and married, that would bring in the gay vote and uber liberal voters.  It can be argued that Biden will beat Trump, it would be good to have a steady hand in the Oval Office, no more crazy actions.  A No Drama Biden would be good for the US. 

Joe Biden will be the Democratic Nominee, Michigan will be a walk over - US 2020 Election

BBC News: Reports " Democratic presidential hopeful Joe Biden has picked up another prize endorsement from a former rival, Cory Booker.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Democratic race is over, after Super Tuesday and winning a majority of the States the former VP is on course for a big win in the State of Michigan.  The failure of the Sanders campaign to get the YOUTH VOTE has undermined his campaign theme,also the Democratic Establishment is NOW fully on board.  It can be argued that Joe Biden is the biggest comeback kid of American politics, most commentators and this blog thought Biden was TOAST, but South Carolina was his firewall and the black vote came out to support the former VP to Obama.   Thus we know enter the general election, Trump vs Biden.  It is going to be a SHOW, like no other. 

Sanders and Warren lead in New Hampshire - US Election 2020

CNN - Politics: Reports " Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (21%) and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (18%) are in a close race among likely voters in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary, according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.  "

Lets Get Real:

The question that has to be asked, is VP Biden finished, he leads in some national polls but in the States he has been overtaken by Sanders or Warren.  One has to assume that President Obama might need to have a word with his former VP, either to get in to the game or considering getting out of the race.  It can be postulated that Barack Obama legacy was hurt by the fact that Hillary Clinton did not win 2016, he does not want to see his VP defeated.   The only thing keeping Biden in the race is the support of the African - American vote, but will last if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire.  It can be argued that the Democratic Establishment should start thinking of getting another candidate, thus we come to HRC, she did win the popular vote in 2016 and she needs something to do, also one would have hoped she would have learned the lessons of 2016, listen to Bill Clinton more, he knows about winning elections. 

Mayor Pete SURGES in Iowa - US Election 2020

USA Today: Reports on a new poll that finds Mayor Pete Buttigieg surging in Iowa, the poll states, " The poll, taken Wednesday through Friday, put Biden at 18%, Warren at 17% and Buttigieg at 13% among 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers.  "

Lets Get Real:

It would not shock this blog if Mayor Pete could WIN in Iowa and NH, he is a war hero, he is young and he is gay, if that does not tick all the boxes for the LIBERAL Democrats then nothing will.   It can be postulated that VP Biden has hit the skids, the attack on Biden and his family by POTUS might have caused damage, and the fact that Warren is seen as being evasive on how she would fund her medical reform has not helped her.   The fact that Senator Sanders had a heart attack and did not tell the press for three days has pricked his balloon as representing the left and honesty.   It is still far too early to predict who will win Iowa, and let's recall New Hampshire likes to go its own way, so winning Iowa does not mean you have a shot in NH.  The front runners , Biden, Warren and now Mayor Pete have to spend the next the next three months in Iowa, they have to feel like a resident.   Of course the impeachment investigation is over shadowing the race, that is why Democratic leaders want it quick and finished by Thanksgiving.   Advice to candidates, wear heavy coats, its very cold in IOWA and NH in December and January. 

Does former President Obama want to see Biden as the nominee? - Election 2020

Fox News: Reports " Axelrod claims Biden 'serially distorting' record, 'in danger of creating more damaging' trend with gaffes "

Lets Get Real:

One does wonder if a former top adviser to President Obama, would write this if not having been given approval by the former POTUS.  This blog has noticed that on CNN David Axelrod has been more critical of the former VP than other guests, sometimes he is the only one who can bring a CNN panel back to earth with the political reality.   It did come as surprise to this blog that President Obama did not want Biden to run in 2016, he thought that HRC had a better chance of winning the White House, its shows that the political skill of Obama is pretty much about himself, at least the Great Reagan helped get his VP elected in 1988.   Does Obama want a different candidate to Biden, a younger, ethnic candidate, and that does not include Senator Warren.  How many gaffes can Biden get away with before his numbers being to fall. 

Biden the GAFFE MACHINE - Election 2020

CNN -  Politics: Reports on the latest major gaff by former VP, Joe Biden, " The Post reported that Biden got "the time period, the location, the heroic act, the type of medal, the military branch and the rank of the recipient wrong, as well as his own role in the ceremony" in the story about the Afghan veteran.  "

Lets Get Real:

The US voter can forgive gaffes if they have a fondness for the candidate, the Great Gipper while in Office had a few gaffes, on a mico once, he was testing the mic, the President declared he had signed a bill to abolish the USSR and the US was about to start bombing.  Of course the LIBERAL press made sure it got in the headlines, in a way Reagan did get rid of the USSR, he spent them into oblivion through SDI and Afghanistan.  The question is can VP Biden make the US voter fond of him, as they were of Reagan, let's be clear Biden is NO REAGAN, but when it's a match up between Biden and Trump, you go with the lesser evil, that is  a Biden White House.  Of course Robert Gates, the former Defence Secretary has stated that Biden has been on the wrong side of national security issues for decades, that would be the cost of Biden.  It's funny old world. 

Is Biden FINISHED? - Election 2020

Daily Mail: Reports " Joe Biden slumps into three-way tie with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in new 2020 primary poll that gives more than HALF of the Democrats 1% or less  "

Lets Get Real:

Folks, you need to be cautions with any poll, does it start a TREND or is it a snafu, in the campaign.  If this starts a trend then Biden is FINISHED, and let's be clear, at this moment in time the State polls are more important, national polls can be the last to find a trend.  It seems that Biden is not having a good time, he is making gaffes you expect from a man of his age, that is a PR disaster, and Biden is no Ronald Reagan, the TEFLON President or JFK.  One moderate or conservative voters start to feel that Biden is not going to win they will transfer to other candidates, either to Warren or Sanders on the LEFT or someone one like Senator Harris to represent moderate side of the Party.  If this blog was in the Biden Campaign, it would send its candidate to Iowa and New Hampshire and keep the national media at some distance, they do not seem friendly to Biden, well if CNN is the example. 

Warren says SORRY again for claiming to be a Native American - Election 2020

BBC News: Reports on the latest remarks by Senator Warren as she runs for the Democratic Nomination for 2020, " At a forum in Sioux City, Iowa, the Massachusetts senator and Democratic presidential candidate publicly apologised for her claims to indigenous heritage.  "

Lets Get Real:

The problem for Senator Warren is not her claim to have Native American Ancestry, it is the FACT that she shares most of her votes with Senator Sanders, if Warren wants to be the Democratic Nominee she has to go after Sanders when they are on the debate stage, otherwise the left will split its vote between Warren and Sanders and allow the more moderate Joe Biden to take the nomination.  The Twitter base might be left wing, but the more moderate and Conservative Democrats want a candidate who can beat POTUS.   In their heart of hearts the Democrats really want Warren but she is a vote LOSER in 2020, she is FAR TO LEFT WING and she worries the base that the Country would rather vote for Trump than a left wing candidate.  It should be stated, this still August, and it's not national polls that matter but State Polls, one poll had Warren ahead in Iowa, thus far no other polls have followed that TREND. 

The Republican PITCH in 2020 - Election 2020

Fox News: Reports on remarks by President Trump at a rally, " Trump tells NH rallygoers 'we have a bunch of socialists or communists to beat' -- as Dem rivals gather nearby  "

Lets Get Real:

The problem for POTUS in head to head matches, all the main Democratic candidates beat him, of course they getting more press attention, and the liberal media is acting as part of their campaigns.  The question is how the actually nominee handles himself or herself in the general election.   Senator Warren has stated that she is a Capitalist, that she is different from Senator Sanders who is a socialist Democrat or the other way around.   One can expect a dirty brutal fight in 2020, Trump will go areas that no other candidate will, he does not turn up to a knife fight with a knife, he goes for the nuclear.  Thus ALL the policy papers released by Warren  if she is the nominee will be gone through to show that she is unfit to be President.   Thus the Republicans will define the Democratic nominee as a socialist or a communist, very FAR LEFT, this campaign has a long way to go.  It is to early for this blog to call the Democratic race, we will have to wait for who is left standing in Iowa and New Hampshire in the early months of 2020. 

Is Senator Warren the REAL THREAT to POTUS - Election 2020

The Hill: Reports " Trump pledges to 'revive' Pocahontas nickname for Warren "

Lets Get Real:

Is VP Biden a busted flush, has his gaffes on the campaign trail come around again to sink him in the 2020 race.  The latest poll has Senator Warren ahead in Iowa, a big win in Iowa could lead to her winning New Hampshire, if she did that then the Sanders supporters it can be postulated would move to back Warren.  But then we have to recall this August, the silly season when it comes to politics, mos pols are on holiday, expect those Democrats running for President.  In most of the national polls and State polls Biden is still leading, his gaffes have become more common, this in itself is not a disqualification, the Great Gipper made a few mistakes in his time, these gaffs can endear a candidate to voters, if they trust he is on his game most of the time.  There is a Democratic debate in September, that should see Warren and Biden on the same stage, also Sanders, this blog is calling the race over for Sanders, he has not made the impact that he did in 2016 against HRC, sooner or later the money will dry up for him.   Of course if he comes out fighting in September and can take out either Biden or Warren then he still might have  chance, this blog is not holding its breath on that coming to pass.   POTUS will love to fight Warren, or has he calls her Pocahontas, Warren has great support on the extreme left wing of the Party, her nomination would play in to the hands of Trump, he would call her a socialist, the Republicans could retake the House and keep the Senate in 2020.  But let's recall its August 2019 not 2020. 

Warren LEADS in IOWA - Election 2020

Its August Folks, some REAL NEWS from Iowa:

Iowa Starting Line ( They take donations ): Reports on a new poll, " Warren was the top pick of 28% of likely Iowa Caucus-goers in the poll, an 11-point lead over the nearest competitor. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were both tied for second with 17% each.   "

Lets Get Real:

This is one poll from Iowa, could be a trend or a snafu, it will be interesting to see other polls from Iowa.  In 1980 Bush 41 won Iowa against Ronald Reagan, ( the Reagan Campaign decided not to play in Iowa and therefore Reagan did not debate Bush 41 ), the win for Bush 41 was a shock, Bush 41 claimed the BIG MO was with him in the run up to New Hampshire, well Reagan won the debate and the State, thus his famous line to a debate moderator, " Mr Green I paid for his microphone ).  The rest is history.  In 2008 the Senator Barack Obama won in Iowa, thus showing he could get the white vote ( Senator Harris really has to spend ALL HER TIME in Iowa ), this forced HRC to win New Hampshire.  It can be argued if ONE candidates takes Iowa and New Hampshire, there is no stopping them.  It would be fun to see Trump vs Warren, Trump would win, as Warren is far to left wing even for Democrats. 

POTUS goes after poor Immigrants who seek Federal support - Election 2020

BBC News: Reports " Trump targets legal migrants who get food aid "

Lets Get Real:

This blog can be tough as anyone when it comes to immigration, but stopping people getting food or housing is JUST WRONG.  The State is there to protect people that fall due to economic other circumstances below the common net for people, it is these people that require government support, is the Trump Administration saying that families should not get ANY FOOD from the Federal State or that they should be housed in the gutter, what happen to Christian values of helping people who have fallen.   One is shocked that the Republicans have not come out against the move, one is sure a JFK or Reagan would never employ such action.   This new rule is going to the Courts, one hopes that the Courts or Congress negate this rule, it's bad for the image of the US and for the reality of immigrants in the US. 

Biden FEELING THE HEAT in New Hampshire - Election 2020

The Hill: Reports on a new poll in New Hampshire, " Biden at 21 percent support, followed by Sanders at 17 percent and Warren at 14 percent. No other candidate has double-digit support in the Granite State.  "

Lets Get Real:

This could mean trouble for the moderate Joe Biden, the former VP to Barack Obama, it shows that the attacks on him from his Senatorial to his Vice Presidential record have had some effect.  The Biden Campaign should be concerned that it could be defeated in Iowa or New Hampshire, one does not have to go back in history to show what happens if that occurs, HRC was seen as the presumptive nominee in 2008, but then she lost IOWA and Barack Obama showed that he could win over white voters, the fear for the Biden camp is that Sanders or Warren could build the BIG Momentum from such a win.  It would be wise for the former VP to spend  a lot of time in Iowa and NH, the voters in these States liked to be asked for their votes, not just assumed to be voting for the right candidate.   Also the next debate will have fewer candidates, so more time for a better debate and not just sound bites. 

The NEXT Democratic Debate - Update 3 - Election 2020

Guardian - Live Blog: Reports in its 4.08pm post, " Only seven candidates have qualified for the next Democratic debates, according to the New York Times.  They are: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Pete Buttigieg, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke.  "

Lets Get Real:

This sounds about right, at least you can get all the candidates on the same debate stage, and the questions and answers can take longer.   Of course it allows for more bust ups, one can expect Warren to go after Biden, they are fighting for the soul of the Party.   As for Mayor Pete and Beto, they are at the start of their political careers, they might be looking at the VP spot on a Biden or Warren ticket.   This blog is not writing them off, just it does not feel that this is their political cycle.   One can expect some in fighting in between Warren and Sanders, one of them has to LOSE, more likely it will be Sanders, he moved the Party but might not have the fire in the belly to be POTUS, you really have to want it, and it can be seen that Warren really wants to be President.  It is only August the 1st, we have a very long road to go, Iowa in 2020 is in February of next year. 

What WAY for the Democrats ? - Update 2 - Election 2020

Sky News: Reports " Biden in the firing line but the Democratic race is still his to lose..Two nights of debates see the party struggling on whether to adopt a progressive or moderate vision to take on President Trump.  "

Lets Get Real:

At the end of the day the Democratic race in all probability will come to a moderate as represented by VP Biden and for the Liberals, or progressives as they like to call themselves by Senator Warren.  It is interesting from 2016 Senators Sanders has moved the Democrats to the LEFT, but like Moses he might not get the prize, it can be argued that Warren has the fire in her belly to take the fight to Biden, it will be interesting to see them on the same stage, that will lead to fireworks.  The problem for Democratic voters is while the Democrats have gone LEFT, the rest of the Country is more to the Centre, even centre right.  Senator Harris will have a HARD TIME selling her health plan, as it removes private health cover from a hundred million Americans, that will go down like a LEAD BALLOON.  Also her time as Attorney General will be looked closely by other candidates, God knows what they will find before the next debate.  Thus my prediction for what it's worth, it will be a Biden vs Warren fight for the soul of the Democratic Party. 

Profile of Kamala Harris - Next President ? - Election 2020

Guardian: Reports " With her back against the wall, Kamala Harris surged. Will it last? "

Lets Get Real:

IF Senator Harris wants to be President Harris she has to take out VP Joe Biden and Senator Warren, the nearest political threat to her from the LEFT.   Next week sees the CNN DEBATES, Senator Harris has to clobber Biden on his civil relationship with racist Senators in the 1970s and also go after his Iraq vote in 2003.  One left she has to make the point that the plans of Senator Warren will never take place as the Country will not vote for a Socialist President, also Trump would have to much fun in attacking Warren over her CLAIM to be a native American decent.  In politics you either win or lose, if you lose you become a commentator on CNN, while the winner will be in the Oval Office.  It will be interesting to see if the other candidates go after Biden and Harris, the Harris record as prosecutor will be gone through, they will be looking for any cases that shed a bad light on Harris. There are more ups and downs to go in this campaign, it's only JULY 2019. 

Warren on the move in the POLLS and the MONEY FRONT - Election 2020

CNN - Politics: Reports " Elizabeth Warren raised $19.1 million in second quarter, campaign says "

Lets Get Real:

Let's postulate that Biden is one of the two contenders for the Democratic nomination, let's also postulate that the Sanders Campaign goes nowhere, the question is where does the Sanders voters go, they could end up supporting Senator Warren.   The Senator is full policy ideas and is also not taking big money but getting along from small contributors.  The Democratic voters must know that Trump will tear Warren apart, she is so LEFT, she makes Lenin look like a Adam Smith supporter.   Thus in essence the Democratic supporters have only once choice, they must support VP Biden.    Thus if the above is right, we have endless  months of a phony war, of course it depends on the above being RIGHT!!  This blog hates being WRONG!!

Trump Surges in Poll for WP - Election 2020

Daily Mail: Reports " Registered voters give Trump all-time high approval rating of 47 per cent in historically lukewarm poll that now shows him more popular than he was on Election Day  "

Lets Get Real:

The Democrats by their words at the debate have helped the Trump re-election campaign, the idea of giving medical cover to illegal immigrants is not popular, the fact that the leading candidates for the Democratic nomination want to get rid of private medical cover has gone down faster than the Titanic, and the Democrats do not stop.   After the mistake on debate of supporting such a move Senator Harris had a clean up operation the following day, but the damage was done.   The Washington Post/ABC News poll found that the only Democratic candidate that can beat Trump is former VP, Joe Biden.   The problem is that VP Biden has to get through the Primary contest, and it can be assured that the left wing candidates will go after Biden on race.  The fact that Trump has been so weak on foreign policy should help the Democrats, the Biden Campaign has jumped on the Trump weakness comes to North Korea, in fact Biden looks tougher on North Korea than Trump, that should help Biden with a moderate Democrats and even Republicans in the general election of 2020.

Kamala surges in IOWA - Election 2020

CNN - Politics: Reports " Joe Biden still leads the Democratic field in a poll taken after last week's debates from Suffolk University and USA Today, with 24% support. But Biden is followed by Harris (16%) and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (13%).  "

Lets Get Real:

This is the BIG MO time for Kamala Harris, she has to follow through, she should spend a LOT OF TIME IN IOWA, the voters in Iowa like to get ot know their candidates, talk to them in their living rooms, talk policy.   The same can be said in New Hampshire, they see Presidential candidates every cycle.   Barack Obama grew support when he showed he could win white votes in the early states, this could be 2007 all over again, the Harris Campaign has to spend a lot of time and money in Iowa, if they can win there, then the road might lead to the Oval Office.  On the other hand Biden has to make sure that he wins New Hampshire like HRC did in 2007 and thus keeping her campaign afloat.   The poor people of Iowa and NH are going to start to see a lot of pols and political adverts.   If you are political geek you love that, if you are not in to politics, take prozac or drink a lot. 

Harris BACKTRACKS over abolishing Private Health Cover AGAIN - Election 2020

Daily Mail: Reports " Kamala Harris backtracks AGAIN and insists she doesn't favor eliminating all private health insurance despite raising her hand in debate to agree she wanted to 'abolish' it  "

Lets Get Real:

This is called a political clean up, Senator Harris has become a potential Democratic nominee, thus she and her campaign should expect her role as a prosecutor to come under firm scrutiny also what she says in debates.   By lifting her HAND to support getting rid of private health cover she has given the Republicans an issue to clobber the Democrats with, they will ALL be asked if they want to throw millions of Americans off their private medical cover, this issue could cost them the election, one only has to recall that President Obama stated if you liked your Doctor you could keep him/her, that turned out not to be true with ObamaCare.  VP Biden also raised his hand, does that mean that a President Biden, will throw millions of American off their cover, time for damage limitation by the Biden Camp.  POTUS is having fun at the cost of the Democrats.