Who is telling the truth over that CHAT, Sanders or Warren ? - Election 2020

BBC News: Reports " Democratic presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren claims rival Bernie Sanders told her a woman could not win this year's presidential election.  "

Lets Get Real:

It should be noted that Senator Sanders has denied the claim, so who does this blog trust, well sorry not Senator Warren, she went along for years claiming she was of native American decent, even on official documents.  This rumble on the left of course helps former VP, Joe Biden, the more older voters will see splits on the left and look for a moderate and stable candidate, without the discord on the centre and right.   There is a Democratic debate tonight, it will be interesting to see if either Sanders or Warren bring up the FACT that Jo Bide while a Senator voted for the IRAQ WAR in 2003.   Of course the plus side for Biden is that the the two Senators will be stuck in D.C over the Trump Trial, he will have Iowa and New Hampshire to himself.  As noted in my previous post, the Trump Campaign sees Sanders as the favourite candidate to win the Democratic nomination, this could be wish fulfilment by them, the real THREAT is Jo Biden or Mayor Pete.   At least the 202O Election is more fun than BREXIT. 

Is Trump feeling the Burn from Senator Sanders? - Election 2020

Fox News: Reports " Trump campaign dubs Bernie Sanders the new Dem 'frontrunner' "

Lets Get Real:

The Socialist Vermont Senator is NOW leading in Iowa and has a chance in New Hampshire.   One has to be impressed with Sanders not his policy, but his recovery from a heart attack and the lack of the opposition candidates to use that against him, he is in his 70s also, well then you can argue is Trump, the combined ages of both would take you to over 140+.    If and it is still a big if, Bernie can take Iowa and New Hampshire he could be hard to beat on Super Tuesday.  It can be argued the same is for Senator Warren, she has a chance of winning Iowa and New Hampshire, if she can win both then Biden is is real trouble in S.C.  Also the Senators will have to attend the TRIAL of President Trump before the US Senate, that will take them away from the campaign trail, that could allow Biden or Mayor Pete to overtake them in Iowa and New Hampshire.    The Senators might say in public they support the campaign of Pelosi but not if it costs them the Presidency. 

Biden FADING FAST in Iowa - US Election 2020

The Hill: Reports " The New York Times–Siena College poll released Friday showed Warren with 22 percent support from likely Democratic caucusgoers, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) with 19 percent, South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg (D) with 18 percent and Biden with 17 percent. All four fall close to the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Biden campaign is in free fall, he is behind Mayor Pete, moderate and conservative Democrats might find that they have to support Mayor Pete to keep the Democrats having a moderate nominee.  The problem is that Mayor Pete has a " BLACK " problem, it seems that African - Americans are not keen on having a gay President, in SC in recent poll the Mayor had only 1% support from black voters.  The black vote is the one of the foundations of the Democratic vote, thus far they are keeping faith with VP Biden, but for how long.   If Warren takes Iowa and Sanders takes New Hampshire, then the former VP will have to to win SC or he is finished.  The former VP has to spend the next two months in Iowa and New Hampshire, he has to live in these two states for Christmas and the New Year.   It is ironic, the Trump scandal seems to have damaged Biden more than Trump, the Republican base is keeping with Trump, while the LEFT WING Democratic base has moved to the LEFT. 

Sanders and Warren lead in New Hampshire - US Election 2020

CNN - Politics: Reports " Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders (21%) and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (18%) are in a close race among likely voters in New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation Democratic presidential primary, according to a new CNN poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire.  "

Lets Get Real:

The question that has to be asked, is VP Biden finished, he leads in some national polls but in the States he has been overtaken by Sanders or Warren.  One has to assume that President Obama might need to have a word with his former VP, either to get in to the game or considering getting out of the race.  It can be postulated that Barack Obama legacy was hurt by the fact that Hillary Clinton did not win 2016, he does not want to see his VP defeated.   The only thing keeping Biden in the race is the support of the African - American vote, but will last if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire.  It can be argued that the Democratic Establishment should start thinking of getting another candidate, thus we come to HRC, she did win the popular vote in 2016 and she needs something to do, also one would have hoped she would have learned the lessons of 2016, listen to Bill Clinton more, he knows about winning elections. 

Warren LEADS in Iowa, Biden 4th in a new poll - US Election 2020

The Hill: Reports " Warren beats Buttigieg; Biden in fourth in new Iowa poll "

Lets Get Real:

If the Biden Campaign is taking comfort in the their lead in a recent national poll they are making a great political mistake.  At the end of the day it is down to the States, and these polls have not been good for Biden when it comes to Iowa and New Hampshire.  The Biden Campaign can not afford to lose Iowa and NH, this would give great political momentum to Warren if she can win both States.  The great lead that Biden has in SC due in part to the African - American vote could fall fast if Warren is seen as the winner.  Also Biden has to worry about Mayor Pete, he is 2nd in this new poll from Iowa.  Senator Harris who placed all her bets on winning Iowa and is no show.  Biden has to hit Iowa and NH hard, otherwise he will become yesterday's man fast.  Let not forget that the impeachment of Trump and his Senate Trial will take up the early months of 2020, a political distraction, the Democratic candidate need all the free TV coverage they can get. 

Mayor Pete SURGES in Iowa - US Election 2020

USA Today: Reports on a new poll that finds Mayor Pete Buttigieg surging in Iowa, the poll states, " The poll, taken Wednesday through Friday, put Biden at 18%, Warren at 17% and Buttigieg at 13% among 500 likely Democratic caucusgoers.  "

Lets Get Real:

It would not shock this blog if Mayor Pete could WIN in Iowa and NH, he is a war hero, he is young and he is gay, if that does not tick all the boxes for the LIBERAL Democrats then nothing will.   It can be postulated that VP Biden has hit the skids, the attack on Biden and his family by POTUS might have caused damage, and the fact that Warren is seen as being evasive on how she would fund her medical reform has not helped her.   The fact that Senator Sanders had a heart attack and did not tell the press for three days has pricked his balloon as representing the left and honesty.   It is still far too early to predict who will win Iowa, and let's recall New Hampshire likes to go its own way, so winning Iowa does not mean you have a shot in NH.  The front runners , Biden, Warren and now Mayor Pete have to spend the next the next three months in Iowa, they have to feel like a resident.   Of course the impeachment investigation is over shadowing the race, that is why Democratic leaders want it quick and finished by Thanksgiving.   Advice to candidates, wear heavy coats, its very cold in IOWA and NH in December and January. 

Warren LEADS Biden in Early States - Election 2020

The Hill: Reports " Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) leads former Vice President Joe Biden in Iowa and New Hampshire,.. "

Lets Get Real:

It can be argued that the past few weeks have been good for Senator Warren, she was one of the first Democratic Senators to call for the impeachment of Trump, then Trump with his disastrous greenlight for Turkey to invade Syria, and for Turkey to attack the Kurds, an ally of the US in its WAR with Daesh.  Then Senator Sanders had a heart attack, his supporters it seems are moving to Warren, and US voters like to support winners, thus Warren could take Iowa and New Hampshire and the line for Biden is South Carolina, his African - American supporting is holding, but that might change if Warren can win the early States.  In all the match ups the Democratic candidates beat Trump, well to be honest these polls are interesting but they do not matter, it can be expected that Trump will throw the kitchen sink at Warren in a General Election, can the liberal firebrand really to toe to toe with Trump and not sink herself with her very liberal policies.  Iowa is getting close, expect the candidates to move to Iowa, that is the plan of Senator Harris, she has become a long shot for the nomination.  On the other hand as the article points out, Mayor Pete has become a player, will the young Mayor fell the giants of Biden or Warren, it is not impossible. 

Warren TOPS another National Poll - US Election 2020

The Hill: Reports " Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) leads the Democratic primary field by 4 points in the latest Economist/YouGov weekly tracking survey, leapfrogging former Vice President Joe Biden as she continues to enjoy a boost in the polls. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus at the next debate it can be argued that Senator Warren should have the  centre stage podium, as she leads NOW LEADS in two national polls and leads in Iowa and New Hampshire.  The Biden Campaign has to up its game, the Ukraine scandal is HURTING the Biden  Campaign, as POTUS is always going on about the how crooked the Biden father and son are, based on conspiracy theories that have be debunked by the main stream media. If there was a there there, the press would have found it by now.  It can be argued that the nomination is there for Warren to LOSE, the other candidates will start to attack her, her plans cost a fortune and as always the Middle Class will be hit by liberal ideas.  Also one has to factor in the recent ill health of Senator Sanders, he is the oldest candidate running, his voters might think it would be better to have another candidate to support, politics is ruthless, its not happy hour. 

POTUS vs. Senator Warren ? - US Election 2020

BBC News: Reports " Trump v Warren rallies preview possible 2020 populist duel "

Lets Get Real:

The above article is interesting, it was published a few days before the Ukraine scandal broke, and looks at the possible match up of Trump vs. Warren.   The Democrats are rushing for Impeachment to finish by the end of November, of course they have already made their minds up, a thorougher impeachment would take almost a year, the Dems want to keep their base happy, also they do not want the process to damage the Democratic race that will start in 2020 with the Iowa and New Hampshire votes.   The blog has read the transcript, it is damaging, but not enough to impeach a duck never mind a President, it depends of the House Committees can bet officials to come to talk to them and how much roadblocks the White House places on the process.   Trump will be ready for bear, he is a good counter puncher, the CIA official who was the whistle blower better have no connection to the Democrats in any form, otherwise Fox News and the supporters of the POTUS will go after him or her with a fury.    As long as Trump keeps the Senate the trial will be very short, there is no chance, that 20 Republicans will defect to support impeachment, POTUS will be found innocent, and then he can go in to 2020 with the mantra that the Democrats have tried two Coups in attempt to overturn the 2016 Election, and Warren will argue that TRUMP is corrupt, it will be a VERY DIRTY campaign. 

Warren TOPS Poll - US Election 2020

Politico: Reports on a  new Quinnipiac University poll, for the Democratic race, " Twenty-seven percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents polled ..said they favor Warren, according to a survey released Wednesday morning. Twenty-five percent said they prefer former Vice President Joe Biden.  "

Lets Get Real:

The race is not looking good for former VP, Joe Biden, he is behind in Iowa and New Hampshire and now Warren is beating him or is neck in neck with him in national polls.  The Trump's Ukraine scandal should get him some sympathy, the fact that POTUS was looking for political dirt on him and his son.  On the other hand the Democrats might think there is some smoke to that fire and will move for the left wing firebrand Senator Warren, it can be argued that their hearts are for Warren but their brains are telling them that they should support the moderate Biden.   This blog has advised Biden to move to Iowa and NH, he might not get to South Carolina at this stage, if Warren can take both early States in 2020 she could run field.   The one good point for Biden is that there is still time for him to get back in to the race, he as the brand name and the money, does he have the fire in the belly is the question.  Developing....

National Poll in essence finds Biden and Warren TIED - US Election 2020

The Hill: Reports a new Emerson College Poll on the Democratic race, " Biden gets the support of 25 percent of registered voters, a 6-point drop from the same poll in August. Meanwhile, Warren has surged to 23 percent support, an 8-point bump since last month’s survey. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) rounds out the top three with 22 percent, a 2-point fall from August.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Biden Campaign should start to worry, they are behind in both Iowa and New Hampshire and now Warren is in essence in tied with Biden in a national poll.  It should be stated that the Biden Campaign has stated that they are looking forward to South Carolina, in that State, African - Americans who support Biden could save his bacon.  The problem is that Biden has to get to South Carolina, if he loses Iowa and New Hampshire and Warren starts to get the big Momentum, then even African - Americans who are one of the  pillars of the Biden Campaign might decide to switch sides.  The former VP has to get his act up to another level, he should move to Iowa and New Hampshire, the voters should see him every day in the two States, the question is can Biden muster the fire in the belly to win this nomination.  At present it looks like it will take Warren to LOSE the nomination, Biden has to up his game and fast, and a visit from Barack Obama would be nice, Biden keeps going on how he worked well with Obama over eight years, why not some pay pack from the Obamas. 

Warren LEADS in Poll in New Hampshire - US Election 2020

Monmouth University Poll: Reports " Among registered New Hampshire Democrats and unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the February 2020 Democratic primary, 27% currently support Warren and 25% support Biden. The only other candidates in double digits are Sanders at 12% and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 10%  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus Senator Warren is LEADING in Iowa and New Hampshire, is it still fair to call former VP Joe Biden the front runner, he leads in national polls, but he is flunking in the early States that vote, if Warren can take Iowa or NH then the other States might fall into line.  The Biden Camp has been aware of this happening have stressed the vote in South Carolina, this has a large African - American vote and it's only leading in this group that Biden in national polls is still the front runner.  If Warren can show that she can take on Trump and can take Iowa and NH in early 2020 the Biden Camp might find that he is General Custer in South Carolina and Warren is the Native American to take his political scalp ( Warren did claim on official papers that she was from Native - American decent, she started it ) Of course its not yet October and there will be further debates, the impeachment investigation in to Trump, and Warren has supported this, could lead to sympathy votes for Biden due to the fact that POTUS was looking for political dirt on Biden and his son.  I love political polls, never tire of them!!

Warren's ROAD to the OVAL OFFICE - US Election 2020

CNN - Politics: Reports " Warren tops the field in the CNN-DMR poll with 22% support, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 20% (the poll has a four-point margin of error, putting the two essentially in a tie). Warren and Biden are followed distantly by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 11%.  "

Lets Get Real:

This is a two man/woman race, the presumed front runner VP Biden faces a great challenge by Senator Warren, she is now leading in Iowa, and if you read the above article, she has a great local operation, also she is from Mass, thus close to NH.  They get their TV coverage from there, so she is well known.   The question is what does Biden do, it's  a very simple answer, he moves to IOWA AND NEW HAMPSHIRE, he can not afford to lose these two States in 2020, if he does it could be OVER for Biden.   The former VP should be in people's homes over the Christmas and New Year period in the two States, in fact the voters of the two States should be sick of his face by the actual contests in February 2020.  DOES BIDEN HAVE it in himself to WIN.   There can be no more political gaffes, he has to take the fight over the Ukraine to Trump, show that one on one he will fight Trump and beat him.  Expect more polls from Iowa and New Hampshire over the next few months. 

Is Biden really the Front Runner for 2020 - Election 2020

CNN - Politics: Reports " Biden remains dominant over Dems nationwide, but early state poll shows stiff competition"

Lets Get Real:

Although political geeks like this blog and those that have an interest in politics would come to view that Biden was going to be the nominee from the national Democratic polls taken so fart, that would be BIG MISTAKE.   Let's recall that HRC was sure fire winner in 2008, the Crown was for her to lose, and she did lose it to Barack Obama, in 2016 Senator Sanders gave HRC a run for her money and still lost to POTUS.  The good people of Iowa and New Hampshire do not like to be taken for granted, they expect the candidate to come to their homes, to talk policy with them and their neighbours, it is general said there are two to three tickets out of Iowa, so let's speculate that those three are Biden, Warren and Sanders, the big test will be New Hampshire, can the candidate who takes IOWA also take NEW HAMPSHIRE, if a candidate manages to that they are heading for the nomination.   It nearly 5 months before IOWA, a week is a long time in politics, months are years.

Biden the GAFFE MACHINE - Election 2020

CNN -  Politics: Reports on the latest major gaff by former VP, Joe Biden, " The Post reported that Biden got "the time period, the location, the heroic act, the type of medal, the military branch and the rank of the recipient wrong, as well as his own role in the ceremony" in the story about the Afghan veteran.  "

Lets Get Real:

The US voter can forgive gaffes if they have a fondness for the candidate, the Great Gipper while in Office had a few gaffes, on a mico once, he was testing the mic, the President declared he had signed a bill to abolish the USSR and the US was about to start bombing.  Of course the LIBERAL press made sure it got in the headlines, in a way Reagan did get rid of the USSR, he spent them into oblivion through SDI and Afghanistan.  The question is can VP Biden make the US voter fond of him, as they were of Reagan, let's be clear Biden is NO REAGAN, but when it's a match up between Biden and Trump, you go with the lesser evil, that is  a Biden White House.  Of course Robert Gates, the former Defence Secretary has stated that Biden has been on the wrong side of national security issues for decades, that would be the cost of Biden.  It's funny old world. 

Is Biden FINISHED? - Election 2020

Daily Mail: Reports " Joe Biden slumps into three-way tie with Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in new 2020 primary poll that gives more than HALF of the Democrats 1% or less  "

Lets Get Real:

Folks, you need to be cautions with any poll, does it start a TREND or is it a snafu, in the campaign.  If this starts a trend then Biden is FINISHED, and let's be clear, at this moment in time the State polls are more important, national polls can be the last to find a trend.  It seems that Biden is not having a good time, he is making gaffes you expect from a man of his age, that is a PR disaster, and Biden is no Ronald Reagan, the TEFLON President or JFK.  One moderate or conservative voters start to feel that Biden is not going to win they will transfer to other candidates, either to Warren or Sanders on the LEFT or someone one like Senator Harris to represent moderate side of the Party.  If this blog was in the Biden Campaign, it would send its candidate to Iowa and New Hampshire and keep the national media at some distance, they do not seem friendly to Biden, well if CNN is the example. 

Warren says SORRY again for claiming to be a Native American - Election 2020

BBC News: Reports on the latest remarks by Senator Warren as she runs for the Democratic Nomination for 2020, " At a forum in Sioux City, Iowa, the Massachusetts senator and Democratic presidential candidate publicly apologised for her claims to indigenous heritage.  "

Lets Get Real:

The problem for Senator Warren is not her claim to have Native American Ancestry, it is the FACT that she shares most of her votes with Senator Sanders, if Warren wants to be the Democratic Nominee she has to go after Sanders when they are on the debate stage, otherwise the left will split its vote between Warren and Sanders and allow the more moderate Joe Biden to take the nomination.  The Twitter base might be left wing, but the more moderate and Conservative Democrats want a candidate who can beat POTUS.   In their heart of hearts the Democrats really want Warren but she is a vote LOSER in 2020, she is FAR TO LEFT WING and she worries the base that the Country would rather vote for Trump than a left wing candidate.  It should be stated, this still August, and it's not national polls that matter but State Polls, one poll had Warren ahead in Iowa, thus far no other polls have followed that TREND. 

The Republican PITCH in 2020 - Election 2020

Fox News: Reports on remarks by President Trump at a rally, " Trump tells NH rallygoers 'we have a bunch of socialists or communists to beat' -- as Dem rivals gather nearby  "

Lets Get Real:

The problem for POTUS in head to head matches, all the main Democratic candidates beat him, of course they getting more press attention, and the liberal media is acting as part of their campaigns.  The question is how the actually nominee handles himself or herself in the general election.   Senator Warren has stated that she is a Capitalist, that she is different from Senator Sanders who is a socialist Democrat or the other way around.   One can expect a dirty brutal fight in 2020, Trump will go areas that no other candidate will, he does not turn up to a knife fight with a knife, he goes for the nuclear.  Thus ALL the policy papers released by Warren  if she is the nominee will be gone through to show that she is unfit to be President.   Thus the Republicans will define the Democratic nominee as a socialist or a communist, very FAR LEFT, this campaign has a long way to go.  It is to early for this blog to call the Democratic race, we will have to wait for who is left standing in Iowa and New Hampshire in the early months of 2020. 

Is Senator Warren the REAL THREAT to POTUS - Election 2020

The Hill: Reports " Trump pledges to 'revive' Pocahontas nickname for Warren "

Lets Get Real:

Is VP Biden a busted flush, has his gaffes on the campaign trail come around again to sink him in the 2020 race.  The latest poll has Senator Warren ahead in Iowa, a big win in Iowa could lead to her winning New Hampshire, if she did that then the Sanders supporters it can be postulated would move to back Warren.  But then we have to recall this August, the silly season when it comes to politics, mos pols are on holiday, expect those Democrats running for President.  In most of the national polls and State polls Biden is still leading, his gaffes have become more common, this in itself is not a disqualification, the Great Gipper made a few mistakes in his time, these gaffs can endear a candidate to voters, if they trust he is on his game most of the time.  There is a Democratic debate in September, that should see Warren and Biden on the same stage, also Sanders, this blog is calling the race over for Sanders, he has not made the impact that he did in 2016 against HRC, sooner or later the money will dry up for him.   Of course if he comes out fighting in September and can take out either Biden or Warren then he still might have  chance, this blog is not holding its breath on that coming to pass.   POTUS will love to fight Warren, or has he calls her Pocahontas, Warren has great support on the extreme left wing of the Party, her nomination would play in to the hands of Trump, he would call her a socialist, the Republicans could retake the House and keep the Senate in 2020.  But let's recall its August 2019 not 2020. 

Warren LEADS in IOWA - Election 2020

Its August Folks, some REAL NEWS from Iowa:

Iowa Starting Line ( They take donations ): Reports on a new poll, " Warren was the top pick of 28% of likely Iowa Caucus-goers in the poll, an 11-point lead over the nearest competitor. Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders were both tied for second with 17% each.   "

Lets Get Real:

This is one poll from Iowa, could be a trend or a snafu, it will be interesting to see other polls from Iowa.  In 1980 Bush 41 won Iowa against Ronald Reagan, ( the Reagan Campaign decided not to play in Iowa and therefore Reagan did not debate Bush 41 ), the win for Bush 41 was a shock, Bush 41 claimed the BIG MO was with him in the run up to New Hampshire, well Reagan won the debate and the State, thus his famous line to a debate moderator, " Mr Green I paid for his microphone ).  The rest is history.  In 2008 the Senator Barack Obama won in Iowa, thus showing he could get the white vote ( Senator Harris really has to spend ALL HER TIME in Iowa ), this forced HRC to win New Hampshire.  It can be argued if ONE candidates takes Iowa and New Hampshire, there is no stopping them.  It would be fun to see Trump vs Warren, Trump would win, as Warren is far to left wing even for Democrats.