US shoots down Iranian drone - Update

CNN: Reports that a Iranian drone that was threatening the Abraham Lincoln aircraft Carrier was shot down by the US.

Lets Get Real:

Events like this have caused wars in the past, Gulf of Tolkien incident in 1964, the shooting down by accident of an Iranian passenger jet in the late 1980's, as the US Fleet was protecting tankers from Iranian attack.  The Iranian theocracy is lucky, any other President would have struck Iran, but Trump is a WIMP, he will let the threat go, as there are planned talks in Turkey between Iran and th US.  The MAGA base does not want the US to be the World's Policeman, that is why Trump is a major WIMP.

Trump to release Dr Martin Luther King Jr Files

Sky News: Reports that the Trump Administration is to release the Files on the assassination of Dr Martin Luther King Jr.

Lets Get Real:

These files should never be released, as if previous reporting, the Files contain allegations that Dr King had affairs, so did JFK, but Dr King was hero to African Americans and his fight for civil rights in 1964 and for voting rights in 1965.   These having nothing to do with his personal life.   The US needs its heroes, JFK's affairs did not help with his political reputation later, some heroes have to be protected, thus case with Dr King.   This is a diversion by the Trump Administration.

Is the Ukraine a NEW Cuban Missile Crisis ? - Biden Era

Daily Mail: Reports " The West is facing a new Cuban missile crisis unless it caves in to Putin over his NATO demands 'here and now', Moscow warns as Putin stages fresh war games "

Lets Get Real:

One does wonder if Putin understand the history of the Cuban Missile or understands to much, in 1962 it looked like Khrushchev had blinked when the US found nuclear missiles in Cuba, 90 miles for US shores, in fact Kennedy and Khrushchev had one a SECRET DEAL, the USSR would take it missiles out of Cuba, while the US would promise not to invade, the secret deal was that Kennedy would take NATO nuclear missiles out of Turkey six months after, but the secret deal has to remain secret and Kennedy Oval stated that if it came out the Kennedy Oval would say it was a lie.  Thus the Kennedys had their PR victory, while in private the USSR got its missiles out of Turkey.  2021/2 is not 1962, there can be no secret deals, the Russians have blocked that by stating that there has to be a legal agreement on the deal, that Ukraine will not join NATO and NATO troops would be withdrawn from Easter Europe States in NATO.  These can never be agreed to, it would make NATO pointless, it all works, a attack on one is a attack on all, that what keeps the Russian paws off the Baltic States and protects Poland and other East Europe States.  Thus Biden cannot afford to LOSE the Ukraine, the Democrats would be called appeasers, it would be called another Munich, 1938, while Putin would look weak if he blinked on the THREAT. So how does this work out, any talks will be short with the Russians, there demands will get a NO, and then what will Putin DO, invade the Ukraine, the American voters would force the Biden Oval to supply the Ukraine people, thus you run the risk of another Cuban Missile Crisis or WORSE.  Yes folks Dec Con1, all out WAR.  Thus if Biden was more nimble, he should send in the 101st Air Born, on a surprise New Year trip to the Ukraine, and backed up by NUCLEAR FORCES if needed.  Does Putin want to be the LAST PRESIDENT of Russia, do the Russian people want to suffer all out war with the WEST.  But then Biden is not that nimble, so what then, that is the question. 

Are the American people in the " Dark " over a War with Iran? - Part 2 - Middle East/Persia - Trump Era

Sky News: Reports " US public 'kept in the dark' over possible war with Iran...Amid assertions of an increased threat from Iran, a senator says the US people are getting a "confused and chaotic picture".  "

Lets Get Real:

This is not 1964 and IRAN is not the Vietnam War, in many respects Iran is a greater threat, it has given the UN 60 days to come up with a way around US sanctions.   This has not gone down well with the UN.  If after 60 days the UN has no plan then Tehran goes for the bomb, President Trump will have no choice but to ACT, if he does not ACT, then either Israel or Saudi Arabia, or both could act to prevent an arch enemy becoming a nuclear power.  The US has placed its naval forces in the region to make sure it can strike Iran should Iran make the foolish rush to become a nuclear armed power.   North Korea is BAD ENOUGH, if Iran goes nuclear its neighbours will be on the black market looking for the bomb.

One would hope that backchannel talks are taking place, to lower the tensions, the worry should be if North Korea and Iran from an alliance and go for a mutual track, causing problem for the US in Asia and the Middle East.   The weekend should be interesting, if nothing happens, then the crisis will have passed in till the 60 deadline is reached, after that it's up in the air. 

Should Oprah RUN in 2020 - Trump Era

Guardian: Reports " ‘NOPRAH! Do we really need another celebrity president?’ read the front page of Tuesday’s New York Post. A critique in Slate on Monday was headlined ‘Oprah? Really?’ and bemoaned the “impossibly boring” current crop of major political figures, making people more likely to vote for celebrities like Trump or Winfrey.  "

Lets Get Real:

Reagan in 1964 started his path to the White House with a speech in support of Senator Barry Goldwater, Obama started his path in 2004 in support of Senator John F. Kerry.  Thus it has been shown that A speech can start the process, Reagan become a Governor in 1966, ran as a dark horse candidate for President in 1968, ran a close fight with President Ford in 1976 and become POTUS in 1980.  In the case of President Obama, he ran for the Senate, hardly stayed long, wise, ran for President in 2008 and won.  Ms Winfrey has the brand name from her TV show and is a successful businesswoman, and a good speech to the Golden Globes awards show, but can she face being in the cold campaign of Iowa and New Hampshire in January, that is a different matter.   Thus blog would not shockd if she did  run, after Trump anything is possible. 

Is Trump the new Barry Goldwater - Clinton Advert - Clinton Era

Lets Get Real:

This might be a mistake by the Clinton Camp, it gives the impression that Trump is a Goldwater Conservative, this might get the base back for Trump.   Also do the HRC camp really believe that Trump is about to start WW3.   In fact the Clinton policy towards Syria and Russia has more chance of starting a War in the Middle East.   When your candidate is under FBI investigation there needs to be a diversion, and this is the best that the Dems can come up with at the moment.

Blair Sorry for Iraq, kind of, - Iraq Inquiry 2

Daily Mail: Reports " Grovelling Blair's voice cracks as he finally says sorry for Iraq War after devastating Chilcot report - but he STILL defiantly insists 'there were no lies' and 'I would take the same decision again'  "

Lets Get Real:

In the day this blog did a Masters course on intelligence and national security, it can be argued that ALL the intelligence agencies before the Iraq War thought the Iraqi Regime had WMD.  The problem with intelligence is that it can be subjective, LBJ used the suspected attack on a US Ship as a reason to attack North Vietnam, that it might not have happened only become clear later, the President never said sorry for the bombing and its bogus reason for the bombing.   Thus when you are doing PR politics with the used of intelligence it is a given that leader will stress its main strong points, Blair wanted to be with Bush 43 when it came to Iraq, the Government was warned by those against the War that it would be a mistake, the Blair Government went to war with Iraq, based on political self interest and the believe that the WMD was there, Tony Blair's only fault was to allow his need to be with the US in the War even if the information was not 100%, sometimes you roll the dice and you win, sometimes you do not, and in this case Blair was not lucky. 

The FALL of Donald Trump? - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " The campaign manager for presumptive Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is to leave his job. "

Lets Get Real:

The Trump Campaign made a mistake in keeping its Campaign Manager after winning the nomination, the Donald needs staff who know how to run a General Campaign, of keeping the base happy and getting them money in, the mistakes of Trump are down to the fact that there is no one to tell him he is wrong and to shut up, every campaign needs a Robert Kennedy or a Nancy Reagan, people who understand the candidates and who can not get sacked.   It looks like the Trump is heading for one of the biggest political loses in history, think 1964 when it was LBJ vs. Goldwater or 1984 when it was Reagan vs. Mondale.   The ego of Trump will be its downfall. 

Hillary Clinton on Donald Trump and his Foreign Policy - Election 2016

Guardian: Reports " Hillary Clinton: Trump is too dangerous and unstable to have the nuclear codes...Democratic frontrunner attacks Trump’s ‘personal feuds and outright lies’ in blistering speech that questions GOP candidate’s suitability for the White House "

Lets Get Real:

The HRC Campaign has finally got it's act together, the Democrats have to stress that the character of Trump is unfit for the Oval Office and his thin skin makes him deeply unfit to sit in the Oval Office.   The allies of the US that Obama has not sold out would be worried that the US would return to it's pre World War 2 isolation policy, thus allowing Putin's Russia to blackmail the West.   The HRC campaign has to hit the Donald on the character issue, do what LBJ did to Goldwater in 1964, in fact one could use the same advert but just change the name.   Thus the General Election has started.

Hail Mary Pass by Cruz and Kasich - Election 2016

Telegraph: Reports  Trump's "  rivals have begun an unprecedented last-ditch attempt to stop him winning the Republican presidential nomination by co-ordinating their campaign efforts in certain states. "

Lets Get Real:

This is the LAST throw of the dice by Senator Cruz and Governor Kasich, if it does not work then Trump will be the Republican Nominee, and it has been suggested that a Trump ticket would lose as big as Barry Goldwater lost in 1964 to LBJ.    Let's recall the only bright spot of the Goldwater Campaign was the birth of Ronald Reagan as a serious candidate for 1968, 1976 and finally winning in 1980.   Thus from the ruins of 2016 we might to see a 2nd Reagan come along, not holding my breath but it is a hope. 

Amash Amendment Defeated - 2nd Term Blues

Guardian: Reports on the fate of the Amash Amendment in the Republican House, " First major challenge to NSA's bulk collection of phone records defeated by only 217 votes to 205 in House of Representatives ".

Lets Get Real:

The vote was interesting folks, the vote divided Parties, on the hawk side was the Obama Oval and Conservative Republicans, while liberal or moderate Republicans joined Democrats in opposing the spaying on US Citizens.   Those that watched 9/11 will never forget that day, but it is like those that were around on November 22 1963, the day that President Kennedy was Assassinated, to them that was the DAY that changed the US, while those that were born after 1963 can place the Kennedy assassination in context, did the change from Kennedy to Johnson really change US policy in Vietnam, many Kennedy supporters have argued so, while those that see Kennedy in the cold light of day and with time argue that LBJ was carrying on the Kennedy policy, what IF's are for counter factual history.  What can be said of President Johnson is that he put his Presidency on the line for Civil Rights and the Great Society, with the best will in the World one can not see Kennedy passing Civil Rights, he was far to cautious, and wanted Southern votes in 64 and to support his brother later on, time has away of showing the truth to those that were not around at fixed times of history, historians have a point of view, that is to be expected, but honest historians give you objective history as far as they can, they give you what was going on and the results, not what they want to have happened, and what COULD have happened.   Thus in time 9/11 will become part of history, such as the Pearl Harbour in 1941, the Kennedy Assassination of 63, but to those that lived through those hours, it will never be far away, it defines us as much as the Cold War. 

The VP with Foot in Mouth - VP Biden

The New York Times: Reports on the relationship between Vice President Biden and President Obama, how after a few up and downs they have a working relationship that works.

Lets Get Real:

If President Obama wants to make sure he gets re-elected he has to dump VP Biden and place Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has his VP choice of 2012. The lack of the Oval doing this does recall LBJ, he could have chosen Senator Robert Kennedy as his VP in 1964 but didn't want to be seen as having been elected due to Robert Kennedy. This was a political mistake by LBJ, if he had chosen RFK he would have had a good chance of winning the 1968 Presidential Election, also as the Vietnam War went badly he could have used RFK to blunt the liberal attack, but that is counter factual history folks, you can never tell. Lets look at more recent history, it can be argued that Bush 43 should have replaced VP Cheney in 2004 with a candidate who could run in part on the Bush record, has Bush 41 ran on being the VP to Ronald Reagan in 1988. A 2nd term President has to face the fact that without this VP running after the first year he becomes less important, if the VP is running he can not afford to burn his bridges with his President. Thus POTUS has some power, if only the ability to hurt his VP, Richard Nixon was hurt when Ike told reports that he would need a week to work out what Nixon has done over eight years. The Reagan legacy looks good because his VP won, the Bill Clinton less because Al Gore lost in 2000. Thus POTUS should consider Hillary Clinton for VP, then he will have some power in a 2nd term win, otherwise he will find he has become a silent screen star with no voice as the press will be in Iowa quite early for 2016.

Florida Republican Debate - Republican Race

BBC News: Reports on the heated clash between Governor Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich when it comes to immigration, the former Speaker accused Romney of being anti immigration. This Debate folks was interesting, yes you had Gingrich and Romney going over old ground of immigration, Gingrich wanting people who have been the US illegally for years but have been productive in the community to be judged by their neighbours if they should stay, while Romney wants the law enforced and for workers to work legally in the US. It was old ground nothing new, what was interesting was the trench warfare of both candidates, while they were in the trenches it was up to Senator Santorum to take the fight to President Obama. Also this blog thinks that President Reagan was the greatest President of the later half the 20th Century, but to be honest this blog will postulate that he would not have much time for either Romney or Gingrich, Romney recalls President Ford, a moderate but a loser to Jimmy Carter in 1976, while Gingrich is the modern Barry Goldwater, a major loser to LBJ in 1964. Reagan would want a Conservative but with charisma, both Candidates have problems on that score.

Obama's Polls

RCP Polls: Reports on the nosedive in the Osama’s polls, their average of the polls has Obama’s job performance approval at 45.7% and disapproval at 49.0%. These are not great numbers to go in to the Mid Term Congressional Elections with, a lot on the Hill will be asking do they want Obama in their State or District, the Obama success on the Hill with his economic package, health care reform and regulation of the banks is not getting people back to work, with such a high level of unemployment around the country the Democrats face a wave election, this could see the House go Republican and the Senate being close to a tie. If this was the result President Obama would be forced to move to the centre in his last two years in office, this would drive Liberals up the wall, and could cost Obama the Presidency in 2012 or the reverse, he could get back Conservative Democrats, floating voters, white voters, small business owners, it will be up to Obama to decide does he want a second terms or does he want to be another LBJ. Johnson had the Great Society between 1964 - 1968 but still go his backside kicked out of office, and the Republicans in power for most of the Century.

Afghanistan

Mother Jones: Reports on the importance that Obama Administration should give to telling the truth when it comes Afghanistan, other wise you have another Vietnam War complex. So is Obama the new LBJ. The advantage that President Obama has is that he is good on TV, thus if he gets around to sending more troops to Afghanistan he should stand a good chance of selling it to the US voter. In Vietnam President Johnson was bad on the old TV, ( yes folks there was TV even then! even colour ) Johnson made a mistake in the 1964 Presidential Election, he wanted to keep Vietnam on the back burner, with the exception of an attack on the North Vietnam due to an attack on a US ship the President kept Vietnam off the main debate. That the War was going well was destroyed by the Tet offensive of 1968, although the Viet Cong lost the battles they won the war due to TV press perception that the War was a loser. Thus 1968 LBJ was forced out of office by Vietnam, that is the fear of the Obama people, the problem for them is that Obama made Afghanistan the Just War, the war that had to be fought, unlike Iraq. It seems history will have the last laugh on Obama, Iraq has problems but on the whole the USA has won in Iraq. It seems that Obama is heading down a road that leads to defeat for the USA, it seems that Obama well could be the next LBJ.