What will the UK do over Syria - Syria Update 4 - Trump Era

Guardian: Reports " Theresa May indicates willingness for military action against Syria...‘Use of chemical weapons cannot go unchallenged,’ PM says, as Corbyn calls for Commons vote on any further action "

Lets Get Real:

The UK has to be part of any allied attack on Syria, if the Trump Oval can not trust the UK and needs France then the UK is in a lot more trouble than this blog thought.   The ghost of Iraq hangs over any British foreign policy when it comes to action, in 2013 the Coalition Government failed to get the House of Commons to support action when it came to Syria, that can not be allowed to happen again.  The PM should act like Lady Thatcher, take the lead, the voters like a strong leader, the musings of Jeremy Corbyn should not worry the PM or the House of Commons. 

Trump on the Democrats - Trump Era

Telegraph: Reports on President Trump's reaction to the Democratic Shutdown, " Over the weekend Mr Trump had goaded Democrats from the sidelines, accusing them of shutting down the government to win concessions on immigration, in service of "their far left base."  "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Washington D.C shutdown was a win for the Republicans, moderate Democrats caved and forced the Party to go along.   As stated in previous post the liberal base will be up in arms, they see that the Shutdown did not last long enough to hurt the Republicans and Trump.  Also as stated that running for the 2020 nomination voted no to re- opening the government, thus any moderates or right wingers have no chance in the Democratic Party.  As for DACA, the Democrats are fickle friends, the Democrats only got agreement for their to be a discussion, no promise on the result or if the House would go along.  In essence a pointless two days. 

The LIBERAL base of the Democratic Party - Trump Era

Guardian: Reports " “It’s official: Chuck Schumer is the worst negotiator in Washington – even worse than Trump,” said Murshed Zaheed, political director at progressive advocacy group Credo. “Any plan to protect Dreamers that relies on the word of serial liars like Mitch McConnell, Paul Ryan or Donald Trump is doomed to fail.”  "

Lets Get Real:

The LIBERAL base of the Democratic Party will not be happy, Senator Schumer will have been seen to blink when faced with polls showing that the Democrats were being blamed by the US voters when it came to the shutdown, it never looks good when you support giving something to illegal immigrants at the cost of those born and bread in the US.  As CNN noticed those who are thinking of running in 2020 did not vote for the Bill, they know how important the base is when coming to running for the nomination.   It can be said that Trump was a great deal maker, he knew when to walk away and let the Congressional leaders solve the problem without promising anything in return. 

The Democrats and the SHUTDOWN - Trump Era

Daily Mail: Reports " Democrats moved quickly to frame Monday's result as a victory despite the widespread perception that they had caved.  "

Lets Get Real:

The Democrats caved, they closed the government down for nothing, the Republican Senate leadership did not promise that the DACA bill would pass and it has no say on what the Republicans say in the HOUSE.  One can assume that Speaker Ryan will come under pressure from the Conservatives in the Republican Party not to take up any bill on DACA from the Senate, it depends on what President Trump says about the issue.   Will the Trump Oval give cover to House Republicans to vote for DACA, it is seen as amnesty by the more Conservative element, and Trump won the Republican nomination and the Presidency based on his anti immigration views.  The next few weeks will be interesting.

Democrats BLINK over SHUTDOWN - Trump Era

BBC News: Reports " The US government partial shutdown is set to end after Senate Republicans and Democrats voted to approve a temporary funding bill.  "

Lets Get Real:

The moderate Democrats on the HILL just blinked, those Senators from RED STATES who are up for re-election were not willing to tie their political futures to the fate of the Dreamers.   Whatever the Senate decides to about DACA; this blog support granting amnesty to those Dreamers; the House is more Conservative, it will take the Oval to give political cover should House Republicans want to deal on DACA.   The Democrats lost the political message WAR, they were playing to their base, very liberal, very pro illegal immigration, the rest of the US might support DACA but not as the cost of closing down the Government. 

The US Government Shut Down - Trump Era

BBC News: Reports " The House of Representatives has passed a bill to fund government operations until 16 February - the first move in efforts to avert a government shutdown.  "

Lets Get Real:

The last US Government shutdown was in 2013 under Barack Obama, the Republicans NOW control both the Congress and the White House, they must make sure that any blame for the shutdown lands on the doormat of the Democrats.   The liberal left in the Democratic Party is pushing for the Democrats to shutdown the Government if they do not get a deal on DACA.   The Republicans should allow the Government to close, they should state that they will not be blackmailed by the liberal left.  In the message battle the Trump Oval should use its Twitter feed to dig and dig at the Democrats on the HILL.   The Democrats should be careful that they do not overplay their hand. 

40% Job Approval for POTUS - Gallup

Gallup: Reports on its daily tracking poll on the job performance of President Obama, today POTUS has a " 40% job approval rating, while 53% disapprove of the Obama record  ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus lets look at what is in store for the Oval in 2014, it can be postulated that the Oval will not ditch ObamaCare, thus what will be the strategy of the Oval to get out of the political hole it find itself in, it can be expected that the White House will run with stories about those that have been helped by ObamaCare, it will carry on with its attempt to paint the Republicans as to the right of Vlad the Impaler on a good day.   There will be more exceptions to ObamaCare, if millions have not signed up they will not have to pay the fine for another year, the Oval wants to get through 2014 Mid Terms.  On the international front expect the Oval to place more pressure on Israel not to strike Iran, also expect the Oval to appease Iran more as to get a deal, in this it will have to fight the US Senate and the Israeli lobby.   In Asia it can be expected some kind of violent reaction by North Korea, something is up since its new leader killed his uncle.   Thus 2014 just  might be worse that 2013 for the Oval. 

UK and Afghanistan

BBC News: Reports that the level of UK troops in Afghanistan will fall to around six thousand by the end of the year. 

Lets Get Real:

The blunt opinion of the UK's role in Afghanistan has been clear in this blog since it started in 2006, Afghanistan is a hell hole, just after Vietnam if your going to fight a War, and its a War you cant and not willing to win.   There have been recent reports of a major political blow up in a video conference between Oval and Kabul, there are reports that the Oval might not leave any troops in Afghanistan, if this is true its one of the wisest things that has come out of the Oval since the 20th of January 2009.   The idea to leave troops in Afghanistan is just plain mad, they would be a major target for the Taliban and Al Qaeda, every hit would be a PR victory for the terrorists,  thus the UK and the US should leave Afghanistan, rent bases on the border of the badlands of the Afghan and Pakistan border and send drones over time there is a threat.  Lets GET OUT, Afghanistan is not worth one more Western life.    On 0 reserve troops if true the Oval is 100% right, guess folks even a ego maniac can have a sound thoughts once in two terms.   

The NYT Living in the PAST - Obama's America

The New York Times: Has the following editorial on the revoking of section 4 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, the article states the following, " What is needed now is a new coalition — as loud and as angry as the voices of 1965 — to demand that Republican lawmakers join Democrats in restoring fairness to the election system.  ".

Lets Get Real:

This is the problem with the liberal left NYT, its living in its glory days of the 1960s, it has not moved on, nothing is forever, the US Supreme Court has moved with the times, thus their ruling in support of gay rights, this was the right move in a morale and political sense, the Voting Rights Act is still in force, it has not been overturned, just now the South will not be treated as a special case, having to cap in hand to the Federal Government EVERY time it wants to change election law, as it has been noted, in many Southern States, the African American vote is higher than the white vote, times changes ALL things folks, it is sad folks that the left can not see that in essence the 1960s IS OVER, there is an African - American President and Attorney General, the great Civil Rights Acts of the 1960s have achieved their gaols, it is time to look at the character of someone and what they do, NOT their colour, Liberals were right to have that fight, but its over, there are other fights out there folks, poor people, people without jobs, people with severe disabilities need people to give them hope, that they are not the forgotten PEOPLE of the US, time for Liberals to grow UP and so NYT. 

Reagan and the 1965 Voting Rights Act - Reagan Era

Lets see what President Reagan thought of Section 4 of the 1965 Act, in a letter to his Attorney General in 1981 the President stated the following, " I am sensitive to the controversy which has attached itself to some of the Act's provisions, in particular those provisions which impose burdens unequally upon different parts of the nation. But I am sensitive also to the fact that the spirit of the Act marks this nation's commitment to full equality for all Americans, regardless of race, color, or national origin. Because my Administration intends to maintain that commitment, the question before us in the months ahead will not be whether the rights which the Act seeks to protect are worthy of protection, but whether the Act continues to be the most appropriate means of guaranteeing those rights. ".*  Thus the above can be read two ways, 1.  Reagan would not have approved the move by the US Supreme Court to revoke section 4, 2. Reagan would have understood with the passing of time the context of the US had changed, the Act did not take that in to account, when the Act was granted an extension in 1982 the President stated the following in a Statement, " Voting is one of the most cherished of our birthrights as American citizens. When practiced, it enriches our democracy; when threatened, it must be protected. Today's responsible action by the Senate sends a strong, bipartisan message: No American's vote shall be defiled, diluted, or denied. The Voting Rights Act, and the amendments added to it in 1975, have significantly contributed to the achievement of full constitutional and political equality for black Americans, and for other minorities, especially Mexican Americans. I strongly believe there has also been a good-faith effort by the great majority of our people, in all regions, to ensure the provisions of this act are fully respected. ".**  One can postulate folks that President Reagan would have had moral and political reservations by this move by the US Supreme Court, but its guess folks, what do you think folks. 

* " Letter to the Attorney General Directing an Assessment of the Voting Rights Act June 15, 1981 ".The Public Papers of President Ronald W. Reagan.  Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

** " Statement on Senate Approval of the Extension of the Voting Rights Act June 18, 1982 ".The Public Papers of President Ronald W. Reagan.  Ronald Reagan Presidential Library.

Further Arrests in London Terror Attack

BBC News Live - London: Has breaking news, two more people have been arrested in connection with the London terror attack, a man and a woman both 29 have been arrested on the grounds of suspicion of conspiracy to Murder. 

Lets Get Real:

It is early in the investigation folks, the BBC web site states that the first two terrorists arrested at the murder were known to MI5, thus the question will be asked why did NOT MI5 or Special Branch pick up these two suspects, they are in the Court process and prevent this savage and horrific attack and murder, were these terrorists/suspects lone wolfs, they were not clean skins are they were on the radar, thus these new arrests could mean that there is a wider terror threat and that the terrorists have changed from using bombs to using other Al Qaeda methods to kill and to cause terror within civic society.    The old Al Qaeda structure was destroyed by the Bush/Obama polices in Afghanistan and Iraq, thus we have seen franchise groups develop as those in Africa, and suspected lone wolfs in Boston, of course the Boston case is still open and has a strong Russian connection.  The Police and the Security Services have been very successful in preventing another 7/7, that luck was bound to fail sooner or later, lets hope we do not have any more days like yesterday and today folks, lets our thoughts be with the family and friends of the victim, if we give the terrorists to much PR they win, lets not give them that media air. 

Chemical Weapons USE in Syria - Update 3

Telegraph: Reports the following from Syria, " Syria's regime dropped chemical weapons from a plane on a district of Aleppo earlier this month, killing two infants and a woman, experts said after a doctor in Aleppo posted a video of apparent victims to his Facebook page. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks what will the UN, EU do about this, answer, NOTHING, the Russians will veto any action by the UN, they need to keep their naval base, the EU will complain and DO NOTHING, thus folks, the US, UK and France down the line will have to take action, if the use of chemical weapons is proven the Oval will have no choice, it can not be seen to appease the Assad Regime, as weakness as stated could lead to Israeli action over Iran, thus we could see another Libya, but with the US at the front this time, leading from behind will not do over Syria.    If it was a Republican President one would have expected more of a call from the elite press for action, but its a Democrat and the first African - American President, so they cover, but that cover can not last, does the Oval want to take action in 2014 before the US Congressional Mid Terms, think not, therefore the window of action is later this year, the same when it comes to Iran, the liberal left will bail on the Oval if Obama takes military actin against Syria or Iran or both, thus in pure political terms best to take action in 2013, with the hope they will be quick and successful campaigns, then go in to 2014 as a successful war leader, but that depends what Assad does folks, the Assad Regime might go for broke later on this year or in 2014, they could really damage the Obama Presidency, not with the elite press but in history, weak leaders never get a good report card, even the extreme liberal elite do not have that power, how every much they think they do, thus watch this space folks. 

Next Phase in Afghanistan

Guardian: Reports on the next phase of the War in Afghanistan, the article notes the following on the troop level after major Western operations end, " No agreement was reached on the precise number, with estimates ranging from between 3,000 to 9,000. ".

Lets Get Real:

If the US and UK are going to do something stupid like leaving forces in Afghanistan then make sure the can defend their positions, or the Taliban and its allies will mount Tet type attacks just to make the news back in the US and the UK.    The New US Secretary of State, Senator Kerry is a Vietnam Vet and anti War protester, thus lets hope he can make sure  that the forces can protect itself, he does not need constant bad news from Kabul over the next two years.    The agreement to keep forces is due to the fact that this agreement was done by the Oval, it got a lot of heat when it left the Iraq withdrawal to VP Biden, of course Biden could not get a security agreement, thus after US and UK deaths in the Iraq War the powers had to get out, thus Iran could supply the Assad Regime in Syria, major mistake by Biden and the Oval.   This blog gives Afghanistan a year before another civil war develops and the Taliban are back in charge in Kabul and the secular Government in Pakistan comes under threat from the Pakistan Taliban.   The West could be back folks in Afghanistan, sooner than you think folks. 

The US and Karzai EXIT Afghanistan

BBC News: Reports that President Obama has announced that the US will end military actin in Afghanistan this year, early than expected, and that President Karzai of Afghanistan will be stepping down in 2014. 

Lets Get Real:

The Oval wants out of Afghanistan, in this in some respect the Oval has a point, there is talk of leaving a US military presence in Afghanistan to search out and kill terrorist suspects, this would be a mistake, a small force would be a target for the Taliban and their terrorists allies, there is a history of powers leaving forces in Afghanistan, the record is not good, just more deaths, thus US and UK should get out, and lease a military base from the Pakistan Government and place UK and US Special Forces on standby to take out suspected terrorists threats that might arise in Afghanistan when the NATO forces leave.   The reason that President Karzai is going is simple, he is clever, he knows Afghan history, once the West is out the Taliban will try to take over Kabul or other major areas in Afghanistan, the Kabul Regime will be living on borrowed time.   Thus Karzai will be on the last US helicopter out of Afghanistan if he has any sense.    At the end of the day the deaths of Western forces in Afghanistan will be for nothing, the Afghan Taliban will be back, so will be their terrorists allies, they will support the Taliban in Pakistan, and thus folks down the road we will have another crisis.   Things change in the badlands of the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan, but at its core its a death zone for major powers, the British, the Russians and now NATO.

Israel, Iran and Syria

Telegraph: Reports the following on Israeli perspective on the effects of an Israeli strike on Iran and the reaction of Syria, " Iran's ability to retaliate for any Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities has been "dramatically" reduced by the disintegration of President Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria, an Israeli intelligence report has said. ". 

Lets Get Real:

This folks could be the Israeli Government telling itself what it wants to hear,  think Iraq and what the then UK and US Governments wanted to hear about weapons of mass destruction, in other words the Israeli Government should not take action before it has firm defences against Hamas in Gaza and Hizbollah in Lebanon,   If Israel does strike Iran these Iran supported terrorists groups will have to obey their financial Master which is Iran.  On the other hand Iran might want to get the US in to the action, thus hit its Navel presence in the Gulf or hit US bases in the Gulf States.   The Israeli political spectrum is going hard right folks, thus the new Israeli Government might be under pressure to call two state peace solution dead and STRIKE Iran.    In 2012 we have seen the drums of War start between Israel, US and Iran, those drums have not gotten more quite because POTUS has gotten a 2nd term.   In fact those drums are going to get louder, the first couple of 2013 could be very interesting folks, watch this space. 

Gingrich OUT - Next Tuesday

The Hill: Reports that former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will leave the Republican Race on Tuesday and support the presumptive Republican Nominee Mitt Romney.

Lets Get Real:

It sad to say folks but Speaker Gingrich has not mattered for weeks, this departure was on the cards for weeks, there was no way Gingrich could win the Republican Nomination, also with the withdrawal of Rick Santorum the nomination was in the hands of Romney. Lets look to the general election campaign folks, Romney needs a VP that will bring the Christian Republicans and the Tea Party movement, but more important he needs a VP that will be a attack dog, someone who will take the fight to the Oval, someone that the main stream media will make public enemy No 1. Also the Republicans have to take in to account the Democratic Strategy of creating an impression that Republicans are at war with women. Thus Governor Romney needs a female VP, but someone that has been vetted and will not cause problems for the Nominee. As stated yesterday the Romney Campaign should think about selecting a VP early, its risky YES, but with risk comes reward, Romney could be in the Oval in 2013.

Obama and the 2013 US Budget

BBC News: Reports on President Obama’s 2013 Budget plan, the Budget at its core would raise taxes on the rich by allowing the Bush 43 taxes to lapse. This is what happens when a President is in the bubble folks and starts to believe his own press statements, the Republicans can NOW define Obama as a extreme tax and spend liberal, the idea of taxing the rich might go down well with the bloated liberal New York Times, but there is one thing that the Oval has forgotten, US Voters want to be rich, what is the point of working hard, making the American Dream if Uncle Sam taxes your money away to spend on welfare, it never ends folks, and there are never enough rich people, its always the Middle Class that take the hit, the Republicans should hammer the Oval over this idea, really define Obama before he can define himself. Also lets recall the rich can NOW create Super Pacs to attack Obama’s class warfare rhetoric.

Nevada Review - Republican Race

BBC News: Reports on Mitt Romney's win in Nevada, with 70% of the vote in Romney leads Gingrich by 48% to 23%. Thus it’s a matter of time before Governor Romney becomes the Republican Nominee, the Romney Campaign has already moved its focus to General Election. In his victory speech Governor Romney attacked President Obama and his record. In a recent poll of battleground states by CNN Romney and Obama are tied, thus its time for the Romney Campaign to develop a strategy beyond the General Election for the battleground States, its these States that will decide who in President in 2013.

US Unemployment DOWN to 8.3%

Guardian: Reports on the downturn in US unemployment, the article states the following, “ …hiring in January and bringing the unemployment rate down for the fifth month in a row, to a three-year low of 8.3%. ”. This is good news for the Oval folks, it helps the Chicago Re-Elect Committee, but and there is always a BUT, the Congressional Budget Office has predicted that by Election Day the rate will be back up to 8.9% and going over the 9% in 2013. The CBO could be wrong, but what if they are right, it should be noted that past US unemployment figures have been low due to the fact that people have given up looking for work, what happens if they come back, YES the rate goes up. The Chicago Re-Elect Committee would have loved this news in September or October of this year, but to be fair it allows the Democrats to have a story arc, they can say that Oval is turning the economy around, that voters should trust President Obama and stick with him, lets see the unemployment over the next couple of months folks.

Italy and the Bond Market Part Two

Guardian: Reports on the following on the Italian Government bond selling, “ The auction in Italy divided analysts…at 6.979%, was still within a whisker of the 7% level that has triggered bailouts ”. As the article notes in 2012 Italy has to sell 450 billion worth of Euro bonds to keep it going, lets see what happens after the Italian people start to suffer the consequences of austerity, also how will the Unions react, if Greece is any example it should get quite hot in Rome, Italy. The Euro is not out of the woods folks, the new EU Treaty has gone off the front pages but it will come back in the New Year, the hangover in 2012 folks will last longer and could last well in 2013. Enjoy the New Year Celebrations folks, it could be 1950s austerity in the EU in 2012/13.