The Polls and the 2015 General Election

BBC News: Reports on the polls in the general election,  " Out of those 25 polls, Labour has led in twelve, the Conservatives in eight and the remaining five have been dead heats.  "

Lets Get Real:

If your a political geek you LOVE polls. it does not matter who is ahead, you love to see who is up and down, what people are really thinking, lets be honest politics and polls bore most people, or they want to keep their political opinions to themselves, also recall the UK voter lies, they did that in 1992 and that election saw Sir John Major getting another term as PM.  On the whole this blog has been bored by THIS election, one is so used to US elections that our own election seems tame, of course with Hillary getting in to election the US Presidential Election starts this year, so expect a lot of coverage of US polls, how the candidates manage Iowa and NH,  and the numerous candidates on the Republican side should make for fun year and half of politics.  The game is afoot. 

The Ground Game of Hillary Clinton - Election 2016

The Daily Mail: Reports " ..ground operatives say her work in a crucial swing state has been 'surprisingly slow' "

Lets Get Real:

The Clinton team this time have to get their ground operation working, the press might have nominated Hillary Clinton but the good people of Iowa and NH like to kick the tires to see what a candidate is made off, they gave a win to President Obama in 2008, it showed that Hillary Clinton could be beaten.   Thus as stated the Clintons, and this means, Hillary and Bill should think of moving to Iowa and NH, they need to almost become residents, they have to understand the concerns and problems of the people, it can not be a Presidential run, as not meeting real people, that is a way to lose election.   Lets hope the Clintons have learned from 2008, Bill will have, politics is in his blood, while the Hillary Clinton persona might be harder for Hillary to break.   People do not change, does not matter if they have the Crown in reach. 

It STARTS in Iowa, Hillary Clinton and 2016

Guardian: Reports " Hillary Clinton to launch 2016 campaign on Sunday en route to Iowa "

Lets Get Real:

This time Hillary Clinton has to almost live in Iowa, as the article notes in 2008 HRC came third after Obama and Edwards.   HRC has wing big enough in Iowa to go to NH and then win the early primary States, she has to get the Democratic race over early as the Republicans will be looking for mistakes, also the Democrats, from the Clinton team down will want to raise a lot of money.   Those that give the big dollars will want time with the candidate.   The NYT and the elite press will be tough on Hillary, as there is no real challenge the press have to keep the Clinton feet close to the fire, they will be her challenge.  HRC has to win over the press, but first things are first, she has to win big Iowa, she can not come second or third again, then all bets would be off, so its for Hillary Clinton to lose the election, 

The Hillary Campaign - STARTS Sunday - Election 2016

BBC News: Reports " Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to announce she is running for president on Sunday, various US media report. "

Lets Get Real:

The 2016 Campaign starts on Sunday with the news that Hillary Clinton will announce that she is running for President again.   The US political race will be full of polls for the Republican side, there seems no REAL challenge to Hillary, one doubts that Vice - President Biden will want to put his head on the block, this time the Clintons means business, any challenger better win, because this time the Clintons are not taking prisoners.    At least A President Hillary Clinton will be tougher, the Clinton Camp has welcomed the deal between the US and Iran but reserve the right to refuse to support it should the talks fail.    This blog has made it clear, if the the Republicans do not nominate Jeb Bush then this blog will support the Clintons, they understand real politics and the price of winning. 

US and Iran, Is the Nuclear deal falling apart - Iran Crisis

The New York Times: Reports that Iran's Supreme Leader has stated that once the a nuclear deal is signed that, " ..declaring that all economic sanctions would have to be lifted on the day any agreement is signed and that military sites would be strictly off limits to foreign inspectors. "

Lets Get Real:

This is NOT the deal the Oval Office has been selling to the US Congress and people, in the eyes of the Oval Office the Western sanctions will only be lifted if Iran follows the deal, that the IAEA will have access to ALL AREAS they want to check for nuclear material.   The Tehran Regime is playing games, they have the Obama weakness, he want to appease, no matter the cost to the US or its allies in the Middle East.   IF any deal is signed the Tehran Government will cheat, there are reports that President Obama wants to visit Iran, aka Nixon going to China.   There are differences, the Nixon visit was in the context of the Cold War, the Nixon White House wanted to move China from Soviet support to a better relationship with the US, also it needed China's support for getting the US out of Southern Vietnam and get a peace deal with North Vietnam.   President Obama is no Nixon or Kissinger that is for sure, even on his best day, the Obama ego is just to high to see that other people might have better arguments and opinions.   The Republicans will use this Tehran statement to kill the nuclear deal in the US Congress. 

Yemen Update - Yemen Crisis

Telegraph: Reports " John Kerry warns Iran that US 'will not stand by' as Tehran backs Yemen rebels..US Secretary of State warns Iran it is tracing country's support for Shia rebels who have seized swathes of Yemen "

Lets Get Real:

This would be funny if it was not serious, no one in the Middle East thinks that President Obama will do anything about the Tehran support of Shia rebels in Yemen, the Oval stated that if Assad of Syria used chemical weapons it would be a red line, as a  good soldier Secretary Kerry got the ready to march the troops up the hill, what did the Secretary find, after marching the World up to action in Syria the Oval Office got cold feet, the reason Obama took action in Iraq and Syria over the threat of Islamic State was due to the murders of US Citizens by IS.   Thus far it looks like a long war, not the three years as suggested by President Obama, it will be a problem for the next administration.   The Oval wants that nuclear deal with Iran, thus it will DO NOTHING because of Yemen, it hopes Saudi Arabia will clear the mess up, the US is out to lunch when it comes to international affairs. 

Labour STORM to lead over Conservatives - 2015 Election

Guardian: Reports on the Labour lead in three polls, the article states the following, " A Survation poll for the Mirror put Labour four points ahead, a Panelbase poll six points ahead and a TNS poll four points .. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the neck and neck race has broken in favour of Labour, as this blog has stated its a Labour win.  Thus lets look at the expected Labour Cabinet for Ed Miliband, the Chancellor will be Ed Balls, even if Ed Miliband wanted to appoint his brother he would face an angry Ed Balls and those of the left of the Labour Party, while Douglas Alexander will be the Foreign Secretary.   It is a tradition if not a by law of the Party that the Shadow Cabinet will be the first Cabinet in any Labour Administration.   Of course after that Ed Miliband might be able to appoint his brother when he does a Cabinet reshuffle.   It will be fun watching the old Blair supporters having to support the left wing Miliband.  It can be expected that under a PM Miliband the UK will not play an active role in World Affairs, there is no ground swell of support for Ed Miliband, thus No 10 will want to avoid major problems that show that lack of support.   Labour in power is always fun, the BBC and Guardian types will be happy.