The Closing Stages - 2012 US Election

Guardian: Reports the following from the US Election, " Influential New York Times election blogger Nate Silver put Obama's current chances of winning at around 80%. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The blog on the whole does not agree with the uber liberal NYT when it comes to most things, but on this occasion their blogger is right, Romney was no Reagan, this year was not 1980 again!  In many ways this a repeat of 2004 when Bush 43 beat Senator Kerry by winning the State of Ohio.    For Republicans it is time to start looking at 2016, never to early folks, one has to say that the front runners are Governor Christie of NJ and Rep. Ryan.   The US election cycle never ends folks. 

The Fall of an Empire - 2012 US Election

Telegraph: Andrew Marr of the BBC writes the following on Obama's America, " I have to admit that to visitors, America no longer feels quite like the future. ".

Lets Get Real:

All Empires fall folks, in the norm its the rot from within, in the case of the British Empire the UK was broke after WW2, and India had the right to self rule.  Thus modern America has a debt of 16 trillion, 23 million people either out of work or in part time work, or work that does not match their educational standard.   The US unemployment rate is at 7.9%.  The Welfare State of the US can not be afforded, that is the only thing the Democrats can offer, thus half the population is on some kind of welfare, thus one of the reasons that POTUS will get a 2nd term.   The banker of the US is China, how long will they bail the US out, at some point, and it will come folks they will ask for their money back, and the US will be shown to be a paper tiger.   The US voter will find that the US is no long that Shining City on a Hill, its 2nd rate power, with a system that can not be afforded, the political parties loath each other, that is the fall of Empires folks. 

The Polls - 2012 US Election

BBC News: Reports on the average of the latest polls in the US Presidential Election, the latest is a tied race, both President Obama and Governor Romney on 49%.

Lets Get Real:

Honesty is the best policy folks, this blog is looking for a 2000 or 2004 type race, in 2004 it was down to Ohio, as it could be this year, as of now one would have to give Ohio to POTUS, nearly all the polls have him tied or leading in the State.   On the other hand, if its really close race we could see Court Cases as in 2000, even the US Supreme Court coming in to play, that would be fun.   This blog has called the race for Obama, the fun for this blog as stated is looking at the final result and which Pollster got it right.    Lets hope this is not 1948, a lot of us would have big egg on our faces, voters do not to that, it would show that you have been laying through your back teeth or ALL pollsters are bent.   That is the fun of politics folks. 

Obama's 2nd Term - Iran

The New York Times: Reports the following from Tehran, Iran on the anniversary of the Iran Hostage Crisis  , " Iranian hard-liners turned the annual commemoration on Friday into a stage for opposing any form of compromise. ".

Lets Get Real:

In essence the election is OVER, yes people have to VOTE, but Obama is going to get a 2nd term, lets look at his major crisis in the 2nd term, that is Iran and the threat by Israel to strike Iran should it go nuclear.   The latest reports in the papers is that Israel has agreed to wait in till next year to see if the tough sanctions by the US and the EU has any effect on Iran.   They will not folks.   Thus what next, the Oval will have choice, either support Israel in military strike on Iran or get Israel to accept a nuclear armed Iran.   NEWS to Oval, that is not going to happen, if Israel thinks that POTUS is trying to sell Israel out it will strike Iran, then Obama will have a choice, either follow through with a US military strike, and see the liberal left go bonkers or be critical of Israel and see the US Congress go the other way and support Israel.  In other words POTUS wont have a choice, thus expect joint US and Israel action next year folks.   The liberal left and the uber liberal media both sides of the Atlantic will go bonkers,  that is why POTUS might regret winning folks, what the political Gods give they take away, and Obama could find himself, like Bush 43 IN the dog house with the uber elite both sides of the Atlantic. 

Thank God for Ohio - Obama Team!

The Hill: Reports the following on the Polls in Ohio, " Obama now leads by nearly 3 percentage points in Ohio, according to the RealClearPolitics average of polls. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks nearly ALL the polls in Ohio would have to be BENT for Romney to WIN, it will be a long election night for us political geeks, if nothing else to see how the actual result matches the polls.  Also it will be interesting to see the finger pointing in the Republican Party, do they blame Romney, the Primary system, or the uber main stream media.  At the end of the day it has to be the candidate.   The Romney team thought this would be 1980 again, that Romney was Ronald Reagan, that was a mistake.    A candidate like Reagan would have gone over the top of the uber liberal main stream media and WON.   Romney was not a big enough Candidate, he was no JFK or Reagan.   In 2016 the Republicans should nominate Governor Christie of NJ, a Republican in a Democratic State but who is BIG CHARACTER, not his weight but in persona, the main stream media would have a hard time in defining him, he could go over their heads.   The march for 2016 starts after the Romney loses on Wednesday folks.   That is the fun of politics. 

Obama's State - Ohio - 2012 US Election

CNN Politics: Reports on its CNN/ORC International Poll of Ohio, in this new poll, President Obama leads Governor Romney by 50% to 47%, a 3%. 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks above we have the reason that President Obama will get a 2nd term, he leads in Ohio in this Poll, in all the other polls with the exception of one he either leads or is tied with Governor Romney, the Obama team followed the Bill Clinton election book of 1996, define your Opposition before they can define themselves, and in the case of Ohio Obama should start to pay States taxes as he has made sure that he has gone there lot of times over the last four years.   All the Obama Team have to do on Tuesday is not mess up their ground game to get their voters to the polls and make sure they do not lose a big blue State that would cover the loss of Ohio for Romney.   Lets see what the next four years bring, this blog can promise that in 2016 the Democrats will be running as far as they can from Obama, the idea that VP Biden is a candidate for 2016 is a JOKE.   It could be ironic, but Obama by 2016 might have wished he has lost in 2012, the office has worn him down, the white hair is empirical evidence of that, he will look really old by 2016. 

Romney vs. Obama - The Polls

Well folks it is the final Friday before the US Presidential Election on Tuesday.   Here is the latest tracking poll from Rasmussen, Gallup is still out. 

Rasmussen Reports: In its poll today we see a tie between President Obama and Governor Romney, they are tied at 48%.

RCP: Lets have a look at the RCP average of the Obama vs. Romney Polls.  Today we see President Obama on 47.4%, while Governor Romney is on 47.3.%, a Obama lead of 0.1%.

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks we have a tied race, in the average of the Polls is the latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll, in that Poll we see Governor Romney leading President Obama by 49% to 48%, a 1%.   As stated this blog has called this race for POTUS, Sandy has helped Obama but on the margins, the race was set by the Obama's teams clever strategy of defining Governor Romney before he could define himself.  The 1st Debate was a disaster for POTUS but he came back, Romney could not move to the centre fast enough, thus Ohio will go for Obama and thus a 2nd term.