Damascus on the Edge of falling- Trump47

 BBC News; Reports in its 3.58pm post that Damascus, the Capital Syria is closie to falling to Islamic rebels.

Lets Get Real:

Thus we  seeing the death of the Asssd regime, the West will hope that the rebels are moderate and not another Daesh, Trump 47 is right the US should stay OUT, its  a problem for Russia and Iran.  Israel should be on ALERT just in  case, did MI6 and CIA know this was going to happen, if not why not.  Everyone it seems is afraid of Trump47 in the Oval.

Israeli Strike On Iran ? - Iran Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the latest prospects of an Israeli strike on Iran, " ..speculation of an Israel attack over the next few weeks has faded in recent days ".

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This of course could be the Israeli Government wanting to miss direct Tehran and the Oval, it is not what they Israel says but what they do, as the article notes Israel held a snap military exercise on the Syrian border, this could test how the Israeli forces react to Iran using its Syrian Regime as a way to hit Israel, this move would help the Assad Regime, as the Syrian people would have to choose between fighting each other or their hated enemy the Jewish State of Israel.   Keep an eye on this area folks, it could blow up at any time, recall 1981 and 2007 folks, the Oval heard the news of an Israeli attack on the news. 

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the Free Syrian Army has claimed that it has shot down a Assad Regime Military helicopter that was firing on a district in Damascus.

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One has to wonder how the rebels are getting equipment that can shoot down an advance Syrian helicopter, the Gulf States are providing arms and equipment while the UK and the US are proving no military support, well that is the official line, it is reported from the Turkish/Syrian border that the CIA is stopping anti Western terrorists groups in Syria from getting any weapons, they do not want a repeat of what happened in Afghanistan when the US did not really care who got the military support as long as the USSR was taken down, some of those groups became the Taliban, and then of course we have Al Qaeda, thus the West is being more careful this time. Thus the overthrow of Assad will take longer but it will happen folks, it is just a matter of time, the Russians will support Assad at the UN, while Iran will give military support, neither will risk if they are clever in placing their own troops on the ground, that would be a red flag to the West.

Iran and Syria - Syrian Update

BBC News: The Obama Administration has stated that Iran is helping train the forces of the Assad Regime.

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This is hardly breaking news folks, the Tehran Regime has been supporting the Assad Regime since the start of the Arab Spring, the Tehran Regime might be murderous and beyond the pale but its not stupid, it knows that if Assad falls its power in the Middle East is reduce by a great level, this is also the case with the Russians, thus their veto at the UN. Thus one can postulate that Russia and Iran and their interests will go down with the Regime, the Assad Regime will fall folks, its just matter of time, the Regime can not murder all the rebels, its giving it a good try but it wont work. Thus in either weeks or months President Assad will either have done a runner or will be hanging from the nearest yardarm. Thus we watch and wait folks.

Iran and Syria - Syrian Update

BBC News: Reports that Iran has confirmed its alliance with the Assad Regime in Syria.

Lets Get Real:

The Tehran Regime has no choice but to support Assad, without the Assad Regime in place its strategic power in the region would be limited. The Assad Regime allows Iran to support its terrorists allies in Lebanon, also threaten Israel. Also if the Assad Regime goes one has to ask how long can the Tehran Regime last, its under harsh international sanctions due to plans to become a nuclear armed power, the civic structure of Iran is falling apart, people make off the books deal to just to get through the day, thus Iran needs Assad in place, in this it is joined by Russia, it wants to keep its only warm water port, also the diversion of Syria allows Iran to develop its own nuclear power structure, the West is diverted, and Israel is under pressure from the Oval not to strike Iran before the US Presidential Election in November. The UN is blocked by the veto power of Russia and China, the Assad Regime will fall folks but the blood bath will be high and the World can not say it did not know.

Syrian PM Defects - Major Blow to Assad Regime

BBC News: Reports that the Syrian PM Riad Hijbab and his family have defected to Jordan, the Assad Regime stated he has been sacked.

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This does have echoes of Tsarist Russia at the end, the top does not understand that the structure that kept the Regime above water is going rotten day by day, how long can President Assad trust his Ministers or Army, could Assad have the same fate as Gaddafi of Libya, or Tsar Nicholas II of Russia, it might be a only a matter of time, the Russians Foreign Office will be planning how to get rid of Assad and get in to the good books with the rebels, it wants to keep its only warm water Port, they might be to late for such a move, on the other hand the West should be wary, some excellent reporting by the The Times of London has shown that the rebels are formed by different groups, those seeking democracy and those with links to crime and terrorists structures. Thus folks decay will wither the Assad Regime, it just depends on the level of blood spilled.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports from US media that President Obama has given the Central Intelligence Agency ( CIA ) the green light to help the Syrian rebels.

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This blog is not that supportive of Obama but to give him some plus points this is a good development, but not surprising, on the domestic front Obama might to be left of the whole of the US but on Foreign Policy he has a trigger finger, his drone strikes, or kill list has been very effective in taking down terrorists leaders in Afghanistan and Pakistan. Even President Obama does not want to see the Syrian rebels wiped out due to lack of US action, its the right thing to do but also its good politics. The Assad Regime is on its last legs, but they are still standing, it will take time to get rid of Assad but with the aid of the CIA the rebels have a chance of doing it faster. Thus A+ to the Oval, yes even the OVAL gets some things right.

Air Strikes on Aleppo - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports that the Assad Regime has used fighter jets in the 2nd Syrian City of Aleppo.

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Thus folks thousands of innocent people have been force to flee to neighbouring countries such as Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, while thousands of others have been killed by the Assad Regime, the Regime kills women and children if they are seen as part of the rebels. And what does the UN do, NOTHING, the veto power of Russia and China protects the Assad Regime, and what has President Obama do, the man that likes to kill terrorists with drones, NOTHING, there are whispers that the CIA and the Gulf States are funding the rebels, well folks its not enough, this is Libya all over again but at a larger scale and the prize could be peace in the Middle East. If the Assad Regime is removed it would blunt the power of Iran, weaken the terrorists groups in Lebanon, could allow for a general peace, but the cost is for Oval to act and lead from the front, does President Obama have the backbone to take the lead, topple Assad and blunt Iran and allow a chance of peace in the Middle East.

Turkey vs. Syria - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the Free Syria Army has denied a NBC News report that Turkey has given the FSA surface to air missiles.

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It would not surprise this blog if the story is true, that Turkey and others are supporting the rebels is an accusation thrown out by the Assad Regime. There have been reports that the US CIA has been supporting the rebels on the border between Syria and Turkey, it can be argued that Oval would not mind if Assad was taken down one way or another, it does not want nightly news broadcasts of the deaths in Syria, it allows the Republicans to undermine a Obama defence, that he is a hawk on Foreign Policy. The recent assassination of those close to Assad was not a tipping point so far, the Assad Regime has hit back hard, this Civil War could take months folks, and the end point could be that the Arab Spring dies in Syria, as long as Russia and Iran keep supporting Assad he has a 7/10 chance of keeping power.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that two hundred thousand Syrians have left the Syrian City of Aleppo due to the fighting between the forces of the Assad Regime and the Free Syrian Army.

Lets Get Real:

Thus the question that has to be asked, what is the West going to do folks, the answer is NOTHING. The Assad Regime would have to start using its WMD's on its own people before the West would take action, and lets be very honest here folks, the action would be taken not to save the Syrian people but to make sure that terrorists did not get their hands on such weapons or that the Syrian Regime gave these WMD's to terrorists in the region, this would be seen as a threat to Israel and thus either Israel or the US would have to act, the Assad Regime is a criminal regime, that does not make it stupid, one can presume that Russia and China have made it clear to Assad that if he uses chemical weapons he is on his own, thus the Syrian people will die while the West looks to the Olympics, that is the real world folks, sad but true.

Aleppo Massacre ? - Syrian Update

BBC News: Reports that the UK Government has warned of a potential massacre in Aleppo, the 2nd City of Syria.

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Thus folks we shall see if the West, and in this case the Obama Administration has the backbone to go around the UN Security Council and prevent a bloody massacre in Aleppo, in Libya after a UN resolution the West in the shape of NATO bought down the Gaddafi Regime, much to the horror of Russia and China, the Russians with their Port in Syria are not going to move, and China on this issue goes along with Russia, lets face China had its own massacre of those seeking democracy, thus they have reasons to prevent the UN looking at the internal affair of other States. The question is will the Oval take action, or are we looking at another Bosnia, thousands killed before the US takes action, of course Obama has a problem, its an election year, how many innocent people getting killed on our TV screens can Obama put up with before he has to take action, with or without UN approval. The US left will never support another War in the Middle East, thus many poor Syrians might have to die before President Obama finds his backbone. Harsh but TRUE folks.

Syrian Crisis - Syrian Update

Telegraph: Reports that Syrian rebels have stated that the Assad Regime has moved its WMD'S to airports on the borders of Syria.

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If true this is a troubling development folks, one can assume that the Israeli Mossad, the US CIA and the UK's MI6 will be looking very careful at the actions of the Assad Regime, should the Regime be trying to send these weapons to its terrorists allies then Israel would have to take action, this would be a mortal threat to Israel. Of course the information is coming from the rebels, thus has to be suspect, they might be wanting the West to take action as they took in Libya. The rebels might want the West to enforce a No Fly Zone as to prevent air attacks from the Assad Regime, that is what this blog would do if in their position. Thus lets hope the Western intelligence networks have their eye and ears open, in other words, people on the ground and listening to internal Syrian government communication. Israel and the West can not afford to be wrong when it comes to Syria.

Syrian Threat - Syrian Crisis

Guardian: Reports the Assad Regime has threatened to use WMD's against a foreign attack on Syria.

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This threat can be discounted folks, any use of WMD's on NATO forces would lead to a nuclear reaction by the West, the pray of the Obama Administration is that Assad does not use WMD's on his own people, any such move would force Israel to act, as this would mean that Syria could give WMD's to terrorists groups in the region. One has to wonder why the Assad Regime has made this statement, is it a warning to the West that any action to prevent Assad killing his own people would allow Assad to use chemical or biological weapons, is Assad NUTS, its a serious question folks. As Syria falls apart and there are more defections from the Syrian Army the security of these WMD's will be a top concern of the Oval and Israel, thus Israel now has to worry about the WMD's of Syria but also Iran going nuclear. It can be argued folks that Israel has never been so close to destruction in its modern history, only takes chemical weapon to hit Israel to cause massive damage or for Iran to go nuclear and to launch a missile at Israel. Lets hope Israel has it eyes and ears open for any chatter, to connect the dots before its to late, the clock of the Middle East is in a danger zone folks.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports on ongoing fighting in the Syrian Cities Damascus and Aleppo.

Lets Get Real:

The Assad Regime has an effective Army, supplied with the latest military equipment from Russian and Iran, they Regimes knows and its followers know they are not just fighting to keep power, this is about not being hung from the nearest yard arm if they lose, thus they are not going to give up without a fight. Also what ever Russia says it will arm the Assad Regime, it has nothing to lose, if the Assad Regime falls it loses its only warm water port, the rebels if they win are not going to be impressed that Russia at the UN blocked any tough resolutions on Syria. The Tehran Regime needs the Assad Regime in place, it allows it to link to its terrorist groups in Lebanon. If Assad falls the Tehran Regime will see itself under threat, thus Tehran has nothing to lose, also if the World is divert by Syria then Iran can develop the bomb. Thus folks this could be a long and bloody civil war, in less the rebels have another ace under their hats.

Syrian Refugees - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the violence in Syria has seen thousands of Syrians flee, the article notes that thirty thousand Syrians have left Syria for Lebanon in the past 48 hours.

Lets Get Real:

As the violence increase folks expect the regional countries to find that they have problems with the dealing with the numbers, thus expect demands that the UN come up with a united solution, the Assad Regime must think as long as it is supported by Russian, China and Iran it will not have to leave power. In the case of Russia it needs its warm water Port and its close relationship with the Assad Regime to keep it a power within the region, then Iran needs Assad as it allow Tehran to have influence in Lebanon, and also poke Israel through Syria and Lebanon. This major Civil War could last for months folks, but not years, also as stated if Assad is foolish to use WMD's that would be game changer, is Assad that foolish folks, this blog has its doubts.

Syrian Update - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following from Syria, " Syria's intelligence chief Hisham Bekhtyar had died on Friday morning of wounds " sustained in the recent bombing of the national security team of President Assad.

Lets Get Real:

It seems from the article that the Syrian Army might have pushed the rebels out of sections of Damascus, but the question that has to be asked is how long the national security structure of the Assad can last. It can be postulated that those still loyal to the Assad Regime will be asking themselves what happens to them should Assad fall, they do not want to be on the wrong side of history. The news out of Damascus is confusing, it is hard to say who has the upper hand at this moment, the big question that has to be asked is will the Assad Regime use chemical weapons on its own people, thus far the West has kept out, but the use of WMD would be a major game changer, it could be close call by Assad, it could keep him in power or rush to his exit one way or another, the next few hours and days will be interesting folks.

US and Syria

Guardian Live - Syria: Reports the following in its 6.26pm post on Syria, " The White House says it does not support extending the UN observer mission in Syria, criticising Russia and China's vetos..".

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The Arab Spring could be a problem for the Oval, it has been seen a slow to respond, the rot started with the elections in Iran when the Tehran Regime shot its own people and Obama in essence did not say a word, the people of Tehran were on the Streets looking for Western help and Obama thought his rhetoric was more important than the people. Then in Egypt the Oval was seen as slow to support those that wanted to get rid of the old Mubarak Regime, in Libya the NATO mission was lead by the the UK and France, while the Oval stated it was leading from behind, great campaign slogan. Thus we come to Syria, how many nights of Syrian deaths will it take the Oval to act, one can postulate that the Oval is waiting for the US election, it might not have that much time, if Assad uses chemical weapons then the Oval will have to act, and from the front this time.

Is Assad about to Flee ? - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports the following from Syria, " Opposition sources and a Western diplomat stated Mr Assad was in the coastal city of Latakia...".

Lets Get Real:

The move to Latakia from Damascus allows Assad to get out of a battle zone but also allows for a quick getaway from Syria should Damascus falls to the Syrian rebels. Also lets not discount the chance that it would allow Assad to use chemical weapons on the rebels in Damascus, this would be the last throw of the dice, one has doubts that even the Russians would still be able to to support Assad should he use WMD on his own people. If the Centre can or will not hold then the Regime is finished, one can postulate that the rebels will try to take the TV and Radio stations, if they can take these they would have a powerful weapon, but its a long shot folks, the Syrian defence forces are very good, this bloody civil war could last months, or it could end in a flash. The major problem folks as stated in this blog is the fact that the Syrian conflict is a proxy war between the US and its allies on one side, the CIA is supporting the rebels via Turkey, and the Russians and Iran supporting the Assad Regime, if Assad falls then Putin is out of the Middle East, and Tehran losses a close ally, if Assad gets away with the killing of this own people then Obama is seen as weak, Turkey is seen as being weak for not reacting, and the CIA has another failure. Thus folks the powers have a lot to lose, this Syrian Civil War is gong to get bloody before there is any peace.

Syrian Civil War - Syrian Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the UK, US and France have stated that the UN has failed in Syria.

Lets Get Real:

This is rather harsh on the UN folks, the UN was and will always be a talking shop, in the Cold War it didn't do a dam thing, it did not bring the sides together or help with the end of the Cold War. It is the modern version of the League of Nations, good intentions but can not deal with the REAL WORLD. The Russian Bear does not want to lose its warm water Port, the Tehran Regime sees the Assad Regime as its proxy War with the West, its a great diversion from the growing Iran crisis. Thus folks the Assad Regime will stay as long as it is backed by Putin's Russia and China, thus many more people will die, and the UN will look feckless and out of date, the only way for there to be a game changer is if the Assad Regime was to use chemical weapons, the West would have no choice but to take action, even Russia could not prevent NATO action, lets hope the Assad Regime is not that stupid folks.

Russia BACKS ally Syria - Syrian Crisis

Telegraph: Reports that Russia will follow through with its military deal with its Cold War ally Syria. Thus the Assad Regime will get its ordered air defence system. Although no new contracts are being signed.

Lets Get Real:

This is a slap in the face to the Obama Administration, the Russians are making clear that they consider the restart button of the Obama Administration a joke. If you combine this deal with the Russians sending a naval vessels and marines to its Syrian Naval base this is a slap in the face to the Oval. It is clear that President Putin has deep contempt for President Obama, sees him as weak and easy to push around, at the end of the day Putin is KGB down to shoes, his greatest regret is the downfall of the USSR. The US voter has to ask, is Obama another Reagan or Carter, would Obama call the USSR an Evil Empire, would he call on Gorbachev to tear down the Berlin Wall, would the Cold War still be on if Obama had been President in the 1980s. The answer US voter should decide your vote in November.