Hagel Confirmation fight - 2nd Obama Term

Telegraph: Reports on the first day of the confirmation hearing for Senator Hagel to be the next US Defence Secretary, the article notes the following, " .. fumbled questions about America’s stance towards Iran Thursday, as he struggled through a Senate confirmation hearing. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks not a good start, but the former Senator should get through, thus far this blog has not heard of any Democratic Senators will vote against him, also a President should have his choice at State and Defence, if any Democrats come out then it might change the outcome.   It not 100% that Hagel will get through, Senator Tower, the choice of Bush 41 failed to pass the Senate.  Lets see if the Jewish lobby and the those on the left can block the confirmation, those that support Israel are afraid that Hagel is soft on Iran, while the left has not forgotten his chosen remarks about a gay US Ambassador.    The Oval might need to spend some political capital to get this through, but it should be enough, in less Hagel does a major mistake over the next few days. 

The Syrian Card - Middle East 2

Guardian: Reports that Syria has threatened to respond to yesterdays Israeli attack, the article notes the following, " Syria may respond to Israeli air strike, says ambassador ".

Lets Get Real:

One can see the Tehran Regime telling the President Assad that the only way that his regime can stay on is to attack Israel, this could cause divisions between the rebels, force those on the sidelines to support the Regime.  A regional war would be bloody, and would be a great for the Tehran Regime to get the West to focus on Syria while it develops the bomb.    A Israeli - Syrian War would force the Oval to support Israel, this would not go down well with extreme liberals, also it would dash any chance of talks between the US and Iran, Iran would say it would not talk while Israel was fighting Syria.  A WIN - WIN for Iran, no talks and it gets to increase it chances of getting the bomb.  Thus its in Western interest for the Assad Regime to fall quickly, the more there is a delay the more chance that Iran can play games.   Next few weeks could be very dangerous folks. 

Israel vs. Syria, Russia and Iran - Middle East

BBC News: Reports that Syria has complained to the UN over the Israeli attack over its borders, while the attack has come under critical attack from Russia and Iran. 

Lets Get Real: 

The Russians need to keep the Assad Regime in power, the Assad family has been a close ally of Russia for years, since the days of the Cold War, the Russians have their only warm water naval base in Syria, they can not afford to lose it, while Iran needs Syria as a access to Lebanon and thus to attack Israel.   As Syria is a state of Civil War, the Israeli Government has to keep a 24 hour look out for the Syrians giving weapons of mass destruction to its terrorists allies, thus Israeli intelligence Mossad will be on the ground, they will be sharing info with the CIA  and MI6.   It can be expected that there will be more Israeli attacks as the Assad Regime falls apart and its loses control of its WMD's, also Iran might want to muddy waters by having Syria attack Israel, thus force Israel to respond, this could set off Gaza again, and this could develop in to a regional war, while Iran gets closer to the bomb.   The Middle East is hotting up folks, the new US Secretary of State, Secretary Kerry will have his hands full when he takes over on Friday from Secretary Clinton. 

Did Israel Strike Syrian Convoy ? - Middle East 3

Telegraph: Reports more on the unconfirmed report that Israel has hit a Syrian convoy that entered Lebanon,  the article notes the following, " An Israeli military spokeswoman declined to comment on the report, which was carried by Reuters and Agence France-Presse news agencies ". 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus folks due to the lack of anything out of Syria, Israel, or even the UK/US one can take it as read that it happened, it would great to have had a confirmation from CNN, SKY, or BBC News,   thus lets see if there is a reaction by Syria, or if the US and Israel take further action, lets be clear folks, the innocent deaths in Syria does cause alarm and concern, but at the end of the day a terrorist group with the WMD's of the Assad Regime is more serious for Israel, and the West. If and its a BIG IF, the Assad Regime has lost control of its chemical weapons the Oval will have a brutal choice, either allow Israel to take out the threat or take action, there are no easy and quick options folks.   Thus this blog would not be surprised if the US has to take out some Syrian sites due to the worry that Assad will or has moved his WMD's in to the hands of terrorists.  Watch this space folks. 

Syrian Chemical Weapons and Israel - Middle East 2

Guardian: Reports on a report that Israeli planes have hit a target on the Syrian/Lebanon border, the article notes the following, " Unconfirmed report of attack comes as Israel monitors region for possible chemical weapons convoys leaving Syria for Lebanon ".

Lets Get Real:

The Israeli Government will not allow terrorists in Lebanon to get hold of chemical weapons, if this was to happen Iran would suddenly become the 2nd threat to Israel.   One would assume that the Mossad of Israel, the CIA of the US and MI6 from the UK will have eyes on the ground in Syria.  The gradual destruction of the Assad Regime allows for Islamic terrorists groups to get their hands on weapons of mass destruction, and folks these groups will use these weapons.    Thus lets see if there 2nd confirmation for this story, it would up the crisis in Syria, the Assad Regime could use it for good PR, from their point of view it would be the Jewish State attacking them for a 2nd time of late, the last major attack was in 2007, when Israel prevented Assad going nuclear.   Think folks if Assad had the bomb, he could blackmail the region and the West.    Thus Israel should keep an eye on Syria, from the ground to the air, but get it right, do not hit a innocent convey, one can assume that the Oval has drones ALL over the Syrian chemical sites in case they have to be taken out, the next few weeks and months could be critical folks. 

Is Egypt about to Fall ? - Middle East

Telegraph: Reports on the riots in Egypt, the article notes the following, " Egypt is nearing "state collapse", its defence minister and army chief warned in comments widely seen as a threat to re-impose military rule. ".

Lets Get Real:

If the new Egyptian democracy falls then the Oval has a problem, the Muslim Brotherhood on one hand as kept Gaza quiet, thus Israel has not invaded, but and here is the BUT, the secular liberal groups in Egypt see that the Muslim Brotherhood is a threat to the secular liberal nature of Egyptian society in the urban areas.    Thus the constant demonstrations, the Army is worried that it might lose its economic interest in Egypt and also lose US support.    The Oval wants the Muslim Brotherhood Government to keep Arms from getting in to Gaza from Iran, but also keep the peace deal with Israel, the Muslim Brotherhood on the other hand is trying to move Egypt in to another Iran.    Thus a problem for the Oval.  It has kept very quiet so far.    Thus the outcome folks, one can assume at some point the Oval will give the green light for the Army to take over and secure the Country, Democracy has it place folks, but Israel is under threat from Gaza, the civil war in Syria and when the day arrives that Iran has the bomb, thus the Oval might decide that the Army is it's SOB and look the other way when it comes to democracy, that how the game has always been played in the Middle East folks, it took POTUS a long time to learn that lesson. 

Obama's Drones in Niger - Mali Crisis 2

Guardian: Reports on a agreement between the US and Niger to place US drones in Niger, the article notes the following, " ..US only currently desires surveillance drones to be deployed to Niger though the agreement could pave the way for more aggressive armed drones in the future. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

Thus West Africa is the new battle ground between the West and Al Qaeda terror networks, the use of drones has been very effective in Afghanistan and Pakistan, even if innocent people have been killed, the question is how long before UK and US Special Forces have to be placed on the ground,  drones can only do so much folks.    The terrorists have a lot of space to hide, so one day in the near future it will not surprise this blog to hear that UK and US Soldiers and fighting and getting killed in West Africa.    The growth of a franchise Al Qaeda has been a major failure of the Bush 43 and Obama years,  this battle will take years folks, and as Mali shows a Crisis can develop out of nowhere, even this blog had to find out about Mali, it was not on this blog's map of future crisis points, thus far we have seen French, UK and now the US one way or another getting caught up in the fight, lets hope UK and US Soldiers do not have to die for French mistakes. 

The West African Crisis - Mali

BBC News: Reports that the UK Coalition Government is sending 330 UK military personnel to West Africa, with 40 going to Mali. 

Lets Get Real:

When this blog hears military advisers it thinks Vietnam War in the early years, as this blog stated in a tweet, this is VERY bad idea, the French so far have given us nothing so they can secure and deal problems arise form their colonial past.    The terror threat is real folks, and France as a major power should not need help from the UK and the US, not after the French Government stabbed the UK in the back over Iraq.   Thus far the French forces have been successful, it wont last folks, the Arab Spring has thrown the chess game of the region on the floor and the pieces have been taken up by Al Qaeda and those terror networks with links to the group.    The fall of Gaddafi of Libya has released Islamic terrorists back on to the street, but also given them access to weapons.   This latest action by the UK Government will not end well folks, lets see the public reaction should any UK Soldiers be killed in Western Africa due to this action. 

Kerry for State - Senate Confirmation

The White House: Has a Statement by POTUS on the confirmation by the US Senate of Senator Kerry as the next US Secretary of State.  POTUS states the following, " I am pleased that the Senate has confirmed John Kerry as our next Secretary of State with overwhelming bipartisan support.  From his decorated service in Vietnam to his decades in the Senate as a champion of American global leadership, John’s distinguished career has prepared him to guide American diplomacy in the years ahead.   

John has earned the respect of leaders around the world and the confidence of Democrats and Republicans in the Senate, and I am confident he will make an extraordinary Secretary of State.  I look forward to his counsel and partnership in the years ahead as we ensure American leadership in the world and advance the interests and values that keep our nation strong.  ".

Lets Get Real:

The question is will Kerry have any real influence, it has been said that the outgoing Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was not part of the inner Obama kitchen cabinet, and she nearly beat POTUS in 2008 for the Democratic nomination, so what real power base will Kerry really have with POTUS.   At State Kerry will have to deal with Mali, the crisis in Mali and the neighbouring States is growing, thus the UK sending 350 Soldiers to Africa, with 40 going to Mali, how long before US Special Forces as requested by the French, there is a lot of sand to cover if the terrorists are going to be taken down.   Then is Israel there is the developing prospect that Israel will hit Iran, and Iran will hit US Naval interests in the area, the Civil War in Syria is endless, even if the CIA is moving weapons from Libya to Syria to help the rebels.   There is the growing tensions in Egypt, the attempt by the Muslim Brotherhood to make the secular Egypt another Iran, while the Oval hopes that Egypt keeps Gaza quiet as to prevent Israel invading it, then we come to the US drone strikes, the UN has started to look in to drone strikes, lets see if they take on the Oval.   The State Department only has influence if it is close to the Oval, one can assume that while the PR will be at State the real power and the action of the US will be taken by the Oval. 

A Mossad Operation ? - Iran

Telegraph: Reports on a explosion at at Iran's main nuclear facility, the article notes the following, " Israeli and Iranian officials have both failed to explain the mystery of a reported explosion said to have rocked the notoriously impregnable Fordow nuclear site in Iran. ".

Lets Get Real:

Lets recall Syria in 2007 kept quiet when Israel bombed its nuclear plant, it might be in the interests of Iran and Israel to keep quiet, the Tehran Regime will not want to admit that its site had been hit and set back its work, while Israel would want to keep it under the radar as prevent giving Iran good PR in its mind, that the Jewish State had attacked a Arab State.  On the other hand as the article notes it could be a big bluff by Iran as to throw sand at the UN and the US while its builds it s bomb.    In many respects this is a game folks, just people die in the process, thus the Israeli attack on Tehran's nuclear workforce.  This could just be run up to the big thing folks, an attack on Iran by Israel, with or without US approval, watch those fingerprints in the sand folks, you cant always be sure its not fake. 

Threat to UK Libyan Embassy - Libya

BBC News: Reports on a threat to the UK Embassy in Libya. 

Lets Get Real: 

The Arab Spring and the end of Gaddafi of Libya has made Northern Africa a hot bed for terrorism action, from Mali to Algeria back to Libya, there has been a growth of Al Qaeda linked terror networks, the French with help from the US and the UK is pushing back Al Qaeda units in Mali, the Algerian Government is not in to taking prisoners when it comes to terrorists, it just wants to kill them, even if innocent people get in the way, the fall of Gaddafi has allowed his Regime weapons to flood the region, even the CIA is using Libyan weapons as to help the Syrian rebels,  also it allows the Oval to say it not giving weapons to Syrian rebels.  Lets hope the French can push the terrorists out of Mali, that the tough Algerian Government can take care of its own, in their own way, and that the new Libyan Government can secure the country.    

US and Israel - Frozen Friendship

The White House: Has a read out of telephone chat between POTUS and Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel, the read out states the following, " President Obama spoke today by telephone with Prime Minister Netanyahu to congratulate him on his party’s success in winning a plurality of Knesset seats in Israel’s recent election.  The President indicated that the United States looks forward to working with the next government.  He also reiterated his commitment to the deep and enduring bonds between the United States and Israel, and pledged to work closely with Israel on our shared agenda for peace and security in the Middle East. ".

Lets Get Real:

Folks this blog would bet the house that the last thing that the Oval wanted was for PM Netanyahu to form the next Israeli Government, the Oval will come under pressure to decide, does it want a nuclear armed Iran or is it going to act, if Israel thinks that Obama is in his Neville Chamberlain mode then it will  act, a nuclear armed Iran is a major threat to the security of the State of Israel.  One can assume that the Oval will try to get one to one talks with the Iran, the Tehran Regime will love that, the will play the Oval, thus more time for Iran to get the bomb, either by its own ends or buying the technology from North Korea, the recent statement from North Korea that it would test a nuclear device has two aims, to blackmail the Oval and to show rogue nations that if they have the money they can buy becoming a nuclear armed power.   The next few months could be crucial for the security of Israel and the Middle East folks, lets hope the Oval is a good poker player or people will die if the Oval does not understand the game. 

2016 Clinton, Clinton Great at State - POTUS

Telegraph: Reports on remarks by President Obama on his Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, POTUS stated that Clinton was " ..one of America's great secretaries of state.. ".

Lets Get Real:

Folks if POTUS as high poll ratings in 2016 then the Clintons will adopt him, if he is the tank they will stab in the back and not give it a second thought.   As the 2nd term develops and there will be mistakes and even disasters the Clintons, and this means Bill and Hillary will make it clear that if the Hillary Clinton was still around then that mistake would not have happened.  It can be expected that Hillary Clinton at the back end of 2013 and start of 2014 will be spending a lot of time in Iowa and NH, the Clintons will be around Country supporting Democrats, in other words getting their campaign ready for 2016.   The Biden Camp really thinks it has a shot at the 2016 nomination, Biden is that much of a fool, this blog which is not a US Citizen, not done fund raising, would get elected before VP Biden.   The Democrats might be naive, they nominated Jimmy Carter in 1976 but they are not fools, there is no way on this earth that Biden will get the nod, folks you have more chance of winning the lottery, but it does give this blog a laugh to think that Biden is that far gone!. 

Hagel US Confirmation fight - Defence Department

Guardian:  Reports on the fight to confirm Senator Chuck Hagel as the next US Defence Secretary, the article notes the following, " His voting record on matters relating to gay rights has riled many of Obama's natural supporters....appeared to criticise the influence that the pro-Israeli lobby in Washington.. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks Senator Hagal faces a fight on two fronts, from the Obama base for his past comments about a gay US Ambassador and from the right for his critic of the Iraq War, his Iran solution to have talks, his perceived weakness on defence, he was a brave Soldier folks, that does not mean he should be US Defence Secretary, one assumes that Obama wants him to be the point man on any talks with Iran, as to deflect any critical reaction, this might what the Oval wants but its the US Senate that gives advice and consent for a nomination, as the article notes US Super Pacs have gotten in to the action, the article notes the following, " seven so-called Super Pacs ....have been formed to derail the appointment of Hagel.. ".   These Super Pacs will place pressure on the US Senators, those feeling the heat will be those up for re-election in 2014, on the whole the pressure will be on Democrats as they are the majority in the US Senate.   The confirmation hearings will be a blood sport folks, get in the drinks, watch a political bear pit, lets see of Hagel can get through, lets recall Bush 41 lost Senator Tower when he wanted to make him Defence Secretary, thus the rise of VP Cheney.   Actions have results folks. 

US/China and North Korea - The China Card

Telegraph: Reports on the reaction of the US and China to the latest threats from North Korea, " appears to have pushed one of its last friends into the arms of its enemy after US officials revealed that Washington and Beijing have achieved a "very strong degree of consensus" over the rogue state's nuclear ambitions. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The Chinese Government must is some what despair about their nutty neighbour, they can not over react because a North Korea falling apart would send hundred of thousands of people over the border, also the North Korea Regime might think they have nothing to lose and start a War with South Korea, and of course the North is nuclear armed, this would bring in the US and its allies, the Government of Japan can be expected sooner or later, and it looks sooner will demand that the US allows it to go nuclear, become a nuclear armed power, this will really worry China.   The question is what do about North Korea, they have a million man army on the border with South Korea, there are reports that the Army is depressed and its equipment is old, but even this could destroy South Korea.   The latest news out of North Korea is that they are planning a nuclear test and more missile test, the aim of these missiles to reach the US, so who is to blame for this mess, lets start with North Korea, they have broken their word so many times, its pointless doing a deal with them, then there is Jimmy Carter, he agreed a deal with North Korea under the Clinton Presidency, for them to give up their nuclear aims, this agreement prevented a US strike, President Clinton should have told Carter to get lost, he prevented the US taking out a threat, not new there folks.  Iran 1979-81.  After that Democratic and Republican Administrations have allowed North Korea to blackmail them, its to late now, North Korea is a nuclear armed power with missiles,  lets see what they want, and lets put them back in the box. 

Obama and US Courts

Guardian: Reports the following on the rejection by a US Federal Court of Obama's recess appointments, " lawyers for the Republican congressional delegation called a "stinging rebuke" to Obama, the court narrowed the president's authority considerably ".

Lets Get Real:

The Oval was a law Professor, should recall that there are three branches of the US Government, the Executive, the Hill and the Judges.   Thus the Oval might be able to bully the the Hill it can not the Legal system, if this decision is upheld by the US Supreme Court it really  could curtail Obama's power and force him to work with the Hill and worse than that, work with Republicans, lets recall that it was the US Supreme Court decision that allowed for the process that lead to the impeachment of Bill Clinton, thus folks 2nd term Presidents are not ancient Kings, they can be bough low, an old law Professor might need to get his legal books out, just to recall how the US legal system works. 

President Obama and the US Courts

BBC News: Reports that a Federal Court in Washington D.C has decided that President Obama made illegal appointments when the US Congress was in recess. 

Lets Get Real:

Is this a political omen folks, all 2nd term Presidencies have one scandal or a disaster, and they tend to have started in the 1st term, Watergate for Nixon after 72, Iran - Contra for Reagan after 84, Clinton was impeached after his 96 win, and Bush 43 had Iraq and the collapse of the Western economic system, thus will Obama overreach, of course he will, they ALL do folks, a second term President is like a ancient King, he thinks he is Gods gift, that his judgement far above any other mortal, and that the system can not go on without him, Obama arrogance is well known, it would be ironic if the Nobel Prize winner fell due to a charge by the UN that he had broken international law due to the use of drones, he is the Godfather of these strikes, he green lights the kill list with the national security council.   One doubts that the UN would be that bold, but it does raise some interesting talk on the political left. 

North Korea Blackmail - 2nd Obama Term

Guardian: Reports the following from the rouge nation of North Korea, " Long-range rockets and proposed 'high-level nuclear test' are targeted at 'arch-enemy of the Korean people', Pyongyang says ".

Lets Get Real:

In essence folks North Korea can not be touched, it has a million man army on the border with South Korea, it has missiles aimed at South Korea, it has the bomb and now its is developing ICBM's that can hit the US,  its major ally China can not act or wont, the UN is a toothless tiger.   When it comes to facing down North Korea or Iran the Oval folds, these rogue countries understand Obama, they know he is weak at his core, he might be the Godfather of drone attacks but he will not use ground troops in a major with with either Iran or North Korea, he folds like a cheap tent, this is known in Pyongyand and Tehran, thus they will push and blackmail, the US will have to wait for another Kennedy or Reagan to get the fear back in to the international system.    The US will fold and give food or other supplies to North Korea to keep it quiet.  On the other hand it can be expected that Japan will go nuclear soon, it can not afford to be upstaged by North Korea, Imperial Japan might need to show its teeth, that just might scare China to force North Korea back in to its box.. 

Kerry and Iran - 2nd Obama Term

BBC News: Reports that the next US Secretary of State Senator John Kerry has stated that the US will stop  Iran going nuclear. 

Lets Get Real: 

The issue of Iran could define the Obama second term, get it right and Obama will become a historical figure, while Bill Clinton also served two terms, he was not in the league of a Kennedy or Reagan,  this is the issue that will either make Obama great or send him in the same category of Neville Chamberlain, who followed  a policy of Appeasement in the 1930s, a policy that was opposed by Winston Churchill, during his Wildness Years of that period.    The recent Israeli Election might have given the Oval some space, the right by the looks of things will have a narrow majority in the new Israeli Parliament.   Thus Obama has some time to do what he wants to do, have one to one talks with Iran, and the man for that is Senator Kerry, he is not a hawk, thus if it does not work and the US has to hit Iran it will be seen that the US tried.  The one policy that will be opposed by the Hill will be any step to force Israel to accept a nuclear armed Iran, that would be a disaster for the US, Israel and for Democrats an election disaster.  Thus lets see what Senator Kerry bring to State, will he be close to the Oval, or will he be used as a sideshow while real policy is taken in the Oval, that would not be new folks. 

UK Citizens GET OUT of Benghazi, Libya - FCO

UK FCO: Reports in its travel advice web page that NO UK Citizens should go to Benghazi and those there should leave due to a terrorist threat. 

Lets Get Real: 

The UK Government is not falling in to the trap that the Oval did folks, it is getting its people OUT, it does not want further UK Citizens to be taken hostage as in Algeria, the French operation in Mali has caused regional problems for the UK, Germany and the Netherlands, these two Countries have told their Citizens to get out.   The Libyan Government is not happy, well they should make sure that post Gaddafi Libya is more secure, it should get the guns and other defence equipment off the street.   It has come out in the US at the Hillary Clinton Senate hearing that the US is moving arms from Libya through Turkey to Syria, one can assume this is a CIA operation,  the idea being that there are no finger prints on the guns, if taken by the Assad regime they can not be traced back to the US, clever if it had not come out.   The Middle East always leaks folks, that is the nature of the game. 

Labour Split - EU

Daily Mail: Reports the reaction to the opposition of Ed Miliband to a EU vote, the article states the following, " risked a party split after refusing to promise an in-out referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union.  Senior Labour figures have defied their leader and backed David Cameron’s announcement today.. ". 

Lets Get Real:

Folks the Conservative Party could have just won the 2015 election, in less Labour moves to agree to a vote they will not win the 2015 election, the Liberal Democrats will have to find a backbone and move from being a pro EU party, and fast.   The game has changed folks, PM Cameron has Labour by the neck, he could even ask the House of Commons to have a pre vote in 2014, force Labour to take a stand, devious but it would work folks, you have to love politics.   A week is a long time in politics folks.   The Labour Party old hands will need to have a world with Ed Miliband, he will have to annoy the the BBC and Guardian and move to support a vote, he can not hold his own Party on this issue, the Liberal Democrats will have to sit down and think hard about their future, do they want a role in UK politics, if so they will have to ditch their pro EU stand and move to be more critical and harsh, the voters decide folks, that is called Democracy. 

UK and EU

Telegraph: Reports the following on the decision of PM Cameron to promise a in or out referendum on the UK membership of the EU, " Labour's policy on Europe was today thrown into confusion, after Ed Miliband declared he opposes an EU referendum only to be contradicted by his party hours later. ". 

Lets Get Real:

This will benefit the Conservative Party folks, although the Party still has a few EU supporters its not like in the day of Lady Thatcher and Sir John Major, when the Party was split by the issue, on the whole the Party would be quite happy to be OUT of the EU, while the issue is a hot issue for Labour, the London elites might want to stay but they can not make sure that Labour supporters follow the party line, the Labour Party could be split down the middle and Ed Miliband could be on the losing side.  While the issue could bury the Liberal Democrats, the Party is so pro EU it wants to run by the EU, if the UK  is out they are finished as a political party, they would lose ALL their Euro MP's, in fact the party could split, between Labour and Conservative supporters.    This is a good news day for PM Cameron and a tricky day for the Labour Party and the Liberal Democrats. 

Hillary Clinton and Libya - PT2

Guardian: Reports the following on Secretary Clinton at the Libyan hearing, " On Wednesday she took an extra trip – to the woodshed. ". 

Lets Get Real:

As the article notes US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton could have found out the truth about the Libyan terrorists attack by one phone call, but form prevented her, one could say if LBJ had bothered to  phone to Captain of the US Ship that was supposed to have been attacked by the North Vietnam and was not he might not have started the full throttle war in Vietnam.   In the UK when a Minister becomes the hostage of the system, he or she are considered house trained, it seems that the State Department trained Clinton, to be a Diplomat, that not the same thing as fighting the US corner.    This admission of failure by Clinton could haunt her in 2016, the Republicans will ask if she will ask the right questions should she have to deal with another crisis, thus this blog will go as far to predict that Clinton will not be the Democratic nominee in 2016,  US politics is ruthless folks, some Democrat will come along and make it an issue by not making it an issue, sink the Clinton ship under the water, that is politics 101 folks. 

Hillary Clinton and Libya

BBC News: Reports that US Secretary of State Hillary mounted a strong defence of her handling of the US deaths in Libya. 

Lets Get Real:

This is the crunch issue that could decide if Secretary Clinton is the Democratic nominee in 2016, the Senate hearing has bought out the fact that Hillary Clinton did not read the diplomatic cables from Libya that asked for more security, the Republican Pacs will have a field say with the statement, a woman running for the Presidency has to reach a higher bar when it comes to security, the fact that that a US Ambassador died in Libya due to the fact that the Secretary of State had not read cables asking for more security is a black mark against Clinton in 2016.   But folks this is the Clintons, after Hillary Clinton steps down and is replaced by Senator Kerry expect the Clintons to move the blame to the Oval Office one way or another, the Clintons are not going to be like UN Ambassador Rice who saw her chance of becoming Secretary destroyed by her keeping faith with the Oval, if it comes down to  it, the Clintons will flush Obama down the toilet if that what it takes to win in 2016, Bill Clinton no matter what he says will never forgive POTUS for using the race card on him in 2008, lets be honest folks, the first black President was not President Obama, it was Bill Clinton, who for his faults was happy and used to black culture, more than can be said for President Obama, how ever much he tries, you can be black without being black folks, the US landed on Hawaii, and African - Americans were not their first.  That is why Obama needed a green card from a racist preacher and urban us terrorists to get in to Chicago politics. 

2nd Obama Term - 2016+2

"Peace in our Time" President Obama and Neville Chamberlain 

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks when an American President starts to quote Neville Chamberlain; the UK PM that gave us Appeasement in the 1930s; if I was in Israel I would worry, is the Oval about to sell us out as Chamberlain did in Munich 1938, in one respect both Obama and Chamberlain share one trait, they think they are right and everyone else has to be taught.   Thus this second Inaugural by POTUS, was not a JFK or Reagan type speech, it pandered to every element that won Obama re-election, those on welfare, those afraid that Government will take things away, single women who think abortion is the only issue, and gays who want to see the US like Europe when it comes to gay right ( they are not wrong to push, just as the old saying goes, only Nixon could go to China. ), also Obama set out his store for amnesty of illegals in the US, in this he might have had the support of Reagan, if he had also stated the need for tighter borders.   The speech was set to appeal to the uber NYT readers, if in Israel you are getting those bunkers ready, and for Republicans you have to block this Agenda, this is not the 1960s  and Obama is no LBJ, the US was a richer country then, it is now heading for a downfall.   Thus a bad speech by a President who does not understand his history. 

2nd Obama Term

Courtesy of the White House,  20/1/2013

Lets Get Real: 

Thus the Obama Era starts its second term, POTUS is now in a selected club of Democratic Presidents who have won two terms, in the modern era that is FDR and Bill Clinton, it should be noted that Clinton never got over 50% of the vote.   Thus lets hope that POTUS has a good 2nd term, if the US is doing good so is the rest of the World.   Lets wait and see folks. 

Godfather Obama - CIA Drone Strikes

Telegraph: Reports that the " The CIA's campaign of lethal drone strikes against al-Qaeda is to be exempted from new rules on the use of targeted killings being drawn up in Washington, it has been claimed. ". 

Lets Get Real:

This is a good move by the Obama Administration, the killing of the Al Qaeda leadership in Afghanistan and Pakistan has forced Al Qaeda to go franchise, it has less capacity to create another 9/11 or 7/7, the mode of operation for old Al Qaeda was a massive terrorist attack, the Oval use of drones has stopped this, in this the Oval has shown courage, it has taken on the liberal base of the Democratic Party and the US Courts,  the Oval has saved lives, of that it can be proud, it has let the CIA off the lose, innocent people have been killed, a lot, but that is the cost of the WAR ON TERROR, its not a nice world out there folks, its Chicago rules, and either kill or get killed. 

Israel NO to 1967 Borders - Middle East

Guardian: Reports that the Israeli PM has stated the following, " Binyamin Netanyahu rejects calls for Palestinian state within 1967 lines ".

Lets Get Real:

This will go down like a lead balloon in the Oval Office and the UK Foreign Office, the Oval has tried to push for a peace deal, and host gotten nowhere, if the Oval tried to force Israel the US Congress, House and Senate would push back, the UK Foreign Office has always been pro Arab, its always the fault of Israel, on the whole this has been countered by a more 10 Downing Street support for Israel.      The Israel political field has gone more right wing, the people of Israel are tired of giving for a peace deal and only to get back bombs from Gaza.   Thus the new Israeli Government might annex the West Bank and take over Gaza, while at the same time bombing Iran.   Thus 2013 folks could be very interesting in the Middle East. 

The 2nd Obama Term - Clock for 2016 +1

BBC News: Reports that President Obama has been sworn in for a 2nd term. 

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks the clock for 2016 stars, the power of any 2nd term President starts to fade within the first year, the President on his desk after the formal ceremony tomorrow, has to deal with the US debt, the growing threat from Al Qaeda in Africa, the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt, this could be a threat to the Israeli and Egypt Peace deal of the Carter years.  The Israeli Election is expected to move Israeli politics further to the right, thus it can be expected that Israel will strike Iran with or without the approval of the Oval. The Israeli Government did this is 1981 and 2007, and the in the Oval was Reagan and then Bush 43, seen as friends of Israel, this can not be said of POTUS.   Then we come to 2016, the Candidates in the Democratic and Republican Parties will start to visit Iowa and NH at the tail end of 2013, full throttle in 2014, then we have the Mid Terms,  can POTUS retake the House and more important can he keep the Senate, then we come to the dumping period, if Obama is low on the polls or his base only comes out to vote for him the Democratic candidates will need a fair space between them and the Oval, just a fact of life.  Also VP Biden is not a serious candidate, thus it is for Hillary Clinton, former, First Lady, Senator and by then Secretary of State to lose the race, on the Republican side it could be Governor Jeb Bush,  a Clinton vs. Bush race, Back to the Future folks. 

Algerian Crisis - US Hostages - Terror Update 3

The New York Times: Report the following on the Algerian Crisis, " One senior official said that seven to eight Americans were among the hostages — the first official indication of the number of Americans involved .. ".

Lets Get Real:

The Oval must be praying that this does not drag on, it does not want this even to overshadow the official start of the 2nd term next week, what if this is on going, will the Oval have to reduce the Parties, what if it get worse, YES folks even the uber main stream media could not cover for the Oval, they would have to cover the story, all although the 2012 Campaign the Oval stated tha Al Qaeda was on the floor and the Oval has saved the US car industry, never put your trust in history folks, history has way of baiting you on the backside, who ever you are, from Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, Bush 43, to President Obama.   The omens for the 2nd Obama term are not good, what the political Gods give they take away, and its their choice when the strike. 

Algerian Update - Terror Update 2

Telegraph Live: Reports the following in its 6.39pm post, " ...some 30 are still unaccounted for. Up to 12 of those may be Britons. Meanwhile, the US has confirmed that an unknown number of Americans are still being held hostage. ".

Lets Get Real:

This is the last thing the Oval needs before it starts its 2nd term, the Al Qaeda linked terrorists could be returning to the example of the Tehran Regime at the end of the Carter Administration,  between 1979 -81, they held over fifty diplomats as hostages, this ended the Carter Presidency, while even the great Ronald Reagan had his Iran problem, selling old missiles  to Iran as to get Iran to help release US hostages in Lebanon, net result, more hostages were taken.   The Al Qaeda linked groups in Africa might not be able to pull off another 9/11 but they can cause massive problems for Western companies and Western Government by taking hostages and causing hart burn in the Oval and Downing Street.  The French were right to take on the Islamic terrorists in Mali, its close enough that should the terrorists take over Mali that it would be a threat to the region and to Europe.   This growing threat has to be dealt with, the War on Terror is not over folks, it never was, no matter what the Oval thinks, events have a way telling the truth folks, even to the Oval. 

Latest from Algeria - Terrorist Update 1

Guardian: Reports on the latest from the hostage crisis in Algeria, " A small group of jihadists are still holding part of the In Amenas natural gas plant ....about 30 foreign contractors at the site have still not been accounted for.. ".

Lets Get Real: 

The UK and US Governments should demand that the SAS and US Special Forces be allowed to take out this small terrorist unit, our Soldiers are the experts at this close combat, the US and UK train their special forces for years to deal with these kind of incidents.    Thus time for the Western Powers to place political and economic pressure on the Algerian Government to give way on this case, the UK does not want to lose its 10 Citizens, the Algerian Government is used to fighting large civil war cases, this requires a fine military strike, not bombs away and lets see the result.   Yes folks this blog is not that happy with the Algerian Government, but that is also the feeling in the US and the UK. 

Algerian Hostages - Mali Effect

BBC News: Reports that thirty Foreign hostages are still missing after the Algerian Army moved in to counter Al Qaeda linked terrorists at a oil installation. 

Lets Get Real:

The blog has not reported on the Algerian terrorist attack as the details even now remain scant, and not complete, at least 10 UK Subjects have not bee accounted for, the UK Government was not informed that that the Algerian Army was going in, one has to say it was a massive attack, it can be assumed that that the UK and US wanted to send in the SAS and US Special Forces but that the Algerian Government want to show it could take out local terrorists.   The Al Qaeda linked group has stated that the French action in Mali is one of the reasons for the attack,  as has been reported the plan was well planned, the French action just gave the terrorists some more PR to use against the West and increase support among their supporters.  The West should NEVER deal with terrorists, that is one lesson of Iran - Contra, you either capture terrorists or kill them, the Obama kill policy with drones has been very successful, on terrorists the Oval has been 100% right, kill first and ask questions after, if ever. 

Afghanistan Front News

MOD: Has announced the name of the UK Soldier that died in the UK yesterday of wounds sustained in Afghanistan, the Soldier was " Kingsman David Robert Shaw from 1st Battalion The Duke of Lancaster's Regiment ".   Our thoughts are with the family of Kingsman Shaw. 

Death in the UK - Afghanistan Theatre

MOD: Reports that UK Soldier has died in the UK of wounds sustained in Afghanistan, the Soldier was from the " 1st Battalion The Duke of Lancaster’s Regiment ".    Thus since 2001 the UK has lost 440 of its Armed Forces Personnel in Afghanistan, of that total it has lost 397 in combat/hostile action, while 43 have died due to illness, accidents or other incidents. 

The Fog of War - Mali Crisis Update 4

The New York Times: Reports the following from Mali, " ..A column of militants had pushed to within about 50 miles of one of Mali’s largest cities, forcing France to evacuate its citizens.. ". 

Lets Get Real: 

In other words folks the French are in trouble, the Government forces of Mali can not follow through after the French air strikes, the French Government is speaking through two sides of its mouth, one saying things are going great, while the other is saying this is going to be hard.   The French have to get over their EGO, its a French thing, and ask for help from the US and the UK, we have spent the past decade fighting terrorists groups, in that process the UK and US have learned some hard lessons, with many of our Soldiers paying with their lives, thus the UK and the US should be better able to deal with this terrorist threat, if France sees this a threat to its previous colonial interest then it will have suck its gut in and ask for HELP.    One questions if the French have the backbone to ask for help this early, they might think it worth while to loss some brave soldiers before asking for help, typical French pride.  I feel sorry for the French Soldiers. 

France ALONE - Mali Crisis Update 3

Telegraph: Reports on the political position of France and President Hollande, " ..for the moment, at least – Mr Hollande is very much alone in his campaign to bring a halt to al-Qaeda’s relentless advance. ..Mr Hollande’s military adventure is set to run for some time to come. ".

Lets Get Real:

The question that has to be asked is how long France places pressure on the UK to to a Libya, the Libyan operation lead by NATO but its face was the UK and France, while the Oval hide behind its desk, SORRY, lead, also the UK might need to borrow the French Navy should the Falklands come under attack again, in other words folk the UK might get dragged in one way or another, but there should be a price, if we place our grounds troops in Mali the French have to agree to support the UK taking back powers from the EU, and many other issues.   The French have to learn that an ally can not be stabbed in the back as with Iraq and there is no payback, if we have to save the French again it will cost, and it will hurt, the Germans wont be happy but then this blog does not see them placing ground troops in Mali.    War is hell folks, but political payback is worse, a lot worse. 

The Fog of War - Mali Crisis Update 2

BBC News: Reports that the French have denied a report from the Mali Government that the Central town of Konna had been retaken by the Mali Government forces. 

Lets Get Real: 

If the France and the Mali Governments can not agree on the press line how are they doing on the military front, it seems that the Mali Government forces from the article can not follow through, in other words the like South Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan the Central Government needs outside help, the French are it, its their colonial backyard, will Paris send in more ground troops as to follow through the successful French air strikes, how long and it will come folks before the US and the UK are asked for Special Forces,  if they are need it should be a limited force of the UK's SAS and the US Delta Forces, its a lot of sand folks, the size of Spain under the control of the Al Qaeda linked terrorists.   The French should be allowed to sink or swim on their own for a time, just a limited time, if nothing else to show them that when an ally calls for help you do not get on your high horse, because you might need that ally in the future, and they might not be that keen to help.  One is sure that the Oval is leading from behind again, that is his character!  Mali could get very bloody soon folks, lets hope the UK and the US do not bleed for French colonial history. 

Mali Crisis - Update

Guardian: Reports that President Hollande of France has stated the following on how long France will stay in Mali, " ..only end its intervention in Mali when political stability and an election process have been restored to the chaotic west African country and Islamist groups have been wiped out,.. ". 

Lets Get Real:

This does bring memories of the UK and the US in Iraq and Afghanistan folks, and what did it get us, no US military presence in Iraq after 2011, and the UK was forced out of Iraq for a second time, the first being in the 1920s.  Thus the UK and US should give very limited support to the French, the French it seems have found their inner backbone, lets see how long it lasts, the French are not that great when fighting without UK and US support, the campaign Mali does have echoes of Afghanistan, just more sand, and you never know who the enemy is, this is a French colonial problem, its their area of influence, how long before the need US and UK support in the ground in the air, let the Oval and Downing Street offer drones etc, but NO GROUND TROOPS, in any shape, this a French made problem, let them solve it, Iraq has a price folks, lets hope Paris understands that fact. 

Mali, A Critical Crisis - Crisis 3

The New York Times: Reports the following from Mali, " French Defense Ministry said on Monday that a town in central Mali had fallen to Islamist insurgents from the north,.. ". 

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks the French say that their military plan is working in Mali, and now it seems that the Islamic terrorists are making progress in the North of the Country, the Western action by the rebels has been slowed in the view of the French, it would be nice to have some reporting from the other side but these terrorists kill reporters with ease, they do NOT understand importance of getting their message across, even the Taliban have gotten the fact that they need good PR or at least reporting that shows their side.  One can see a 3am call to the White House and 10 Downing Street, the message will be simple, the French are in trouble, if they fail Europe could come under new terrorist attacks, and of course so could the US.   The last thing the Oval wants in in last term is for a major terrorist attack to occur on its watch, then nothing would matter, the Oval would have been seen to lie to the US voter that the War on Terror was coming to end, LBJ had the liberal Great Society but this was not enough after the disaster that was Vietnam, thus the Oval should be careful that it does not become another LBJ, politics and history has a way of playing the card you should have, sooner or later, lets see if the Oval understands that fact. 

Obama and the Gun Lobby

Telegraph: Reports that President Obama has stated that he " ..may fail to outlaw high-power assault weapons..president warned that it may be blocked by Congress. ".

Lets Get Real:

The point of Presidential leadership is to take a major political risk, LBJ kept civil rights on the Hill in till it was passed, even knowing that the Republicans would benefit in the long term, the article notes that Conservative Democrats are not going to support major gun reform as they would be finished back home, that was the argument that LBJ faced, but he knew how to get Congress to pass things that hurt, Obama is not that popular with Democrats, never mind Republicans, he thinks if he argues the case he can win people over, so far a majority of Americans still do not support ObamaCare, wait in till their taxes go up to pay for it, on this issue the Oval has to go 100% for gun control, only the military, police and sport men/women should have guns, and those that ranch.    There is no reason for the average man or woman on main street to have a gun, its a matter of public health, less people shot, less time Doctors have to deal with the issue, the same goes for the crime rate.   The liberals in the Democratic Party should force the Oval to 100% for massive and complete gun control, it will not be easy, it will be hard, and it will cost, but its the right thing to do, time for the Oval to lead. 

France in Mali - Crisis 2

Guardian: Reports that Islamic terrorists in Mali have stated the following on the French action, " France has opened gates of hell, say rebels  ".

Lets Get Real: 

The French might find that the US and UK will give non combat support but will halt at actual troops, the French have burned their bridges with blog after their actions leading up to the Iraq War, the French would not allow the UN to pass a UN Resolution that would have made the Iraq War legal in the eyes of many, yes folks payback is harsh.   This matter is Mali is a French colonial problem, after Algeria and Vietnam one would think that the French would have learned that they do not WINS wars without the UK and US backing them up, and you don not get that kind of favours if if you knife a ally in the back at the UN.   As to the threat of Islamic terrorists to Mali, well if they get close to the Capital then the West will have to take action, it can not have another Afghanistan at the time of the Taliban and their allies.   Thus the UK and US should wait, be ready to send in Special Forces, troops ready on the air planes to go, but and this is the important but, we the US and UK should not clear up the mess of the French and their colonial past. Payback is harsh folks. 

The UK and Mali - Crisis

BBC News: Reports that the UK Government has stated that it is concerned about the crisis is Mali and is supporting the French in a limited manner. 

Lets Get Real:

This is how it starts folks, lets cut to the bare bones here folks, the French at some time are going to ask for more military help from the US and the UK, well we should say SORRY but no, we have finished the Iraq in 2009 and the UK is leaving Afghanistan in 2014 or faster by the sounds of things, the UK and the US should not help France on this matter as it is a past French colonial problem, can you see  France coming to help the UK should there be another War in the Falklands, HELL NO, let the French ego deal with this problem, if the US and UK have to help lets send in Special Forces.   The US and UK Defence Establishment after Iraq and Afghanistan needs a rest, not another Civil War, this can wait folks, if the French really mess things up then we might have to run to their rescue again, but lets wait, this is a another War that the West needs like a hole in the head. 

UK in Mali - WHY?

Telegraph: Reports on the role of the UK in Mali, " Britain is to provide military aircraft to transport foreign troops to Mali amid a new push against Islamist forces in the country. ".

Lets Get Real:

Folks I thought the Coalition Government had stated that before the UK got involved in another War that the House of Commons would debate the topic.    Thus this is the first that this blog has head that RAF planes will be used as transport planes, that makes the UK and the planes a target.   Thus far this blog has not heard that there will be a debate in the House, let hope Mali does not turn out to be another Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan, finishing one war but then getting dragged by the French in to another conflict, this blog is far from happy about these developments.