The Hagel Sacking Mess - 2nd Term Blues

CNN - Politics: Reports the following on the sacking of Secretary Hagel from Defense, the article notes the following, " CNN has learned the White House wanted Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel to wait until this week to resign, so it would have a new nominee in place by then. But Hagel refused to wait, ..."

Lets Get Real:

This blog has respect for Secretary Hagel, if he was being fired he would go out on his terms, and not allow the White House to stage manage the event, at least Secretary Hagel has been under real fire, he served in military, while nearly none of Obama's inner team have had any military history.   That is the problem with 2nd terms, all the good people are gone searching for new jobs, what you have left is those that could be called the 2nd term, the lack luster replacements for those that got the President there.  As noted the new Defense Secretary can do what he or she likes, they can not be fired, 5 former Defense Secretaries would look bad on the PR front and to history.    The curse of the 2nd term has really hit Obama. 

The new US Defense Secretary = Ashton Carter

BBC News: Reports  on Ashton Carter the following, " Mr Carter was previously the Pentagon's chief arms buyer and an assistant secretary of defense under former President Bill Clinton. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus the Oval has gone for a safe pair of hands at the Defense Department, lets be honest here, no one of note wanted the job, you have a President who can not make him mind up what he wants in Syria and Iraq, and thus blames the Defense Secretary at the time for HIS FLAWS.  In one way Mr Carter is lucky, he can not be sacked, one can hardly have 5 Defense Secretaries, would not look good, lets see how Mr Carter plays this, with his past history at defense he should not have much of a problem with the confirmation hearing under a Republican Senate.   In many ways Mr Carter has a free hand, as noted he can not be fired, as a history with defense matters, more than can be said of President Obama.   Thus change at the Defense Department. 

The FALL of Secretary Hagel - 2nd Term Blues

Fox News: Reports " " Make no mistake, Secretary Hagel was fired,” a senior U.S. official with close knowledge of the situation told Fox News. "

Lets Get Real:

The Oval Office has to be careful, if it throws Hagel under the bus he might want some revenge, this is about how bloggers and historians will deal with the Hagel tenure as Secretary of Defence, it can be assumed that Secretary Hagel will want to write his memoirs about his time as Secretary of Defence, and to move the blame for IS from himself to the Oval Office.   Lets recall Mr Hagel is a Republican, thus he does does not owe the Democratic Party anything, this might lead to a sharp and critical memoir before the Presidential Election of 2016. 

The Breakup between Obama and Hagel - 2nd Term Blues

CBS - Politics: Reports " ...Hagel was was fed up with micromanagement from the White House, while the White House was unhappy that Hagel was not a vocal defender of the administration's policies.  "

Lets Get Real:

The REAL problem is President Obama, he made a bad decision not to leave US Forces in Iraq after 2011, he left VP Biden in charge of the Iraq relationship, that was massive mistake.  Thus from that mistake we have seen the growth of IS terror group Syria and Iraq, when it comes to Syria the President made himself look weak when he did not follow through with his threats to bomb the Assad Regime, now the US is bombing IS in Syria and Iraq and it looks like Assad is using that time to also bomb his opposition, in essence the US air force has become the air force for Assad.   The Oval Office has no real plan on how to deal with Assad, that has become a secondary issue, the main fight is now IS, the terror group has become a threat to the States of the Middle East and to the West.   As noted in this blog, Obama has become the new LBJ, thus we come to the Obama strategy to micromanagement Wars, and that is worked badly.   Lets hope the new Defence Secretary can stand up to the Oval. 

The SACKING of Secretary Hagel - 2nd Term Blues

CNN - Politics: Reports " Hagel, who has served as Defense secretary since February 2013, was forced out by President Barack Obama, CNN confirmed from several sources. "

Lets Get Real:

It seems the Oval is getting the PR message through first, so Hagel was sacked, this of course will lead  to an interesting confirmation hearing for his successor.   The Republicans should play hardball after the move by Obama on immigration.   The next Defence Secretary is almost can  not be fired, one can hardly have 5 Secretaries of Defence, it would be record,  thus the new Defence Secretary needs to be a strong, with his or her own base of support, outside of the Administration.  Also the new Secretary must he a hawk with the ability to stand up to the Oval Office.    Interesting days ahead for the Senate confirmation. 

Hagel OUT - 2nd Term Blues

The New York Times: Reports " Administration officials said that Mr. Obama made the decision to remove Mr. Hagel,.... last Friday after a series of meetings between the two men over the past two weeks. "

Lets Get Real:

One has to say that Secretary Hagel was the right man at the wrong time, he was bought in as US withdrew from the WARS in Afghanistan, well events change, and the US is now back on a War/Terror threat from IS.   The Oval Office wants a safe pair of hands but also someone who is good at communication, in other words a strong Defence Secretary.   Of course that comes with a problem, what if the new Defence Secretary wants more bolder action than the Oval wants, President Obama will be on his 4th Defence Secretary after the confirmation hearing for the successor to Hagel, one has to question WHY Obama has problems with defence, Gates and his successor, Leon Panetta have both been critical of President Obama, with Gates it was the view that Obama did not support his own Afghan policy and with Panetta it was Iraq and the lack of leaving troops behind, thus the present War with IS in Syria and Iraq.    It will be interesting to read the memoirs of Secretary Hagel, was he pushed or did he fall by his own design.   

Hagel OUT as US Defence Secretary - 2nd Term Blues

Guardian: Reports " Chuck Hagel forced to step down as US defense secretary "

Lets Get Real:

As this blog has noted you can't be a liberal President home and abroad, something has to give, thus it can be assumed that Obama wants to see more action in Syria and Iraq, he might even want to win.   It would be an irony if President Obama when he leaves Office in 2017 will have Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria on a ground war footing, that would be the political gods having fun at the expense of President Obama.   The Democratic Nominee will not be happy, he or she will either have to support these Wars or ditch the Obama brand.   The President that was elected to end Wars would have just added Syria in to the mix.   It will be interesting to see who Obama nominates for the Defence post, will it be a strong hawk or dove, that will tell the real story of this sacking. 

Hagel and Syria - War on Terror 2

CNN - Politics: Reports on a secret memo sent by Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel to the Oval Office, the memo concerned Syria, "  It was a detailed analysis, crafted directly by Hagel "expressing concern about overall Syria strategy," a senior U.S. official tells CNN....It comes at a time when the Pentagon is well aware there is growing, but anonymous chatter, that some White House officials are unhappy with Hagel's performance. "

Lets Get Real:

Thus another Secretary of Defence is protecting his backside when it comes to Syria, the Oval will have to face the fact that the War in Syria and Iraq is not going well, the air strategy alone only works in the mind of President Obama.   Thus if you judge a President by his actions, one has to say President Obama has been a failure when it comes to Syria, his disaster of the  red lines speech started the process, when Obama said that if the Assad Regime used WMD it would be a red line, then did nothing when Assad used WMD gave the impression that the Oval and the US was weak.   The decision to remove ALL US troops from Iraq will be seen as a equal disaster, the removal allowed IS to take over vast areas of Iraq and become a threat to the Capital, Baghdad.    The fact that the Hagel memo leaked shows that Hagel does not want to be blamed for Syria or Iraq, loyalty costs in Washington D.C. 

Syria Update 2

Guardian: Reports on the move by the Obama White House to arm the Syrian rebels, " Arming the rebels could be a way to be seen to be acting to stop the bloodshed in Syria without getting too deeply involved. ".

Lets Get Real: 

Once the Oval starts to arm the Syrian rebels it has to WIN, the Assad Regime is being armed by Russia and Iran, the Civil War in Syria become if it has not already become a  proxy War between the US/West and Iran, the Tehran Regime needs Assad in power as this allows it to support its terrorists allies in Lebanon, and thus strike Israel.  As long as the West and the news networks have their eyes on Syria then Iran can rush to get the bomb, they have seen how North Korea has been protected by having the bomb, thus in pure Strategic terms its in the interest of Iran to get the bomb and fast.  The clock is ticking for Israel folks, POTUS stated that Iran would have the bomb within the year, the Israeli Government will not wait for the year to end folks, also they have seen how weak POTUS has been with Syria, can they trust his promise to tackle Iran.  Watch the Syrian Crisis folks, its has major results for World security.   

NO US Action over Syria - Syrian Update 2

Guardian - Live Syria Blog: Reports the following in its 5.03pm post, " A letter sent by Hagel to two senators on the subject of reported chemical weapons use in Syria "hints that a broad US response is not imminent," .

Lets Get Real:

It is reported that Secretary Kerry has stated that the Syrian Regime has used chemical weapons twice, it seems that Kerry and Hagel have dropped the Oval right in it, when your Secretaries of Defence and State both confirm the use of chemical weapons, and the Oval is using weasel words to avoid taking action you have a major problem, that is the reason not to have strong or independent men or women in these senior posts, they are less under the control of the White House.   Thus the Oval as two choices, and only two, take action, and lose its domestic base or give the green light to Assad to kill his own people with chemical weapons, if the Oval does not take action it will be seen as a green light, also Israel will start to think that any Obama promise over Iran is not worth the paper its written on, thus folks we come to a major crossroads for the Oval, War or Appeasement, lets see what happens folks. 

Chemicals Weapons USED in Syria - US Confirmation

CNN - Politics: Reports breaking news, that the US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel has confirmed that chemical weapons have been used in Syria. 

Lets Get Real:

As the above story broke folks the White House was using weasel words to get Obama out of doing anything, the Oval knows if it does anything in Syria the liberal base of the Democratic Party will jump on the Oval, but the lack of action means that the Assad Regime has the green light to attack its own people with the chemical weapons and that the word of the threats of the White House mean nothing in real terms.  The weasel words of the Oval should send shivers down the spine of the Israeli Government, after all the talk of red lines the Oval wants no part of actually taking action in Syria, if the Oval is yellow, cowardice in the face of the enemy what about Iran, the Tehran Regime must think that they have the green light to go nuclear, the Obama words mean NOTHING, they never did, this lack of action could lead to a regional WAR folks. 

Hagel over 1st Hurdle - 2nd Obama Term

BBC News: Reports that a US Senate Defence Committee has passed the nomination of Senator Hagel to be the next US Defence Secretary, the nomination now goes before the full US Senate. 

Lets Get Real:

It seems even after the disaster that was the conformation hearing the Democrats are willing to walk the blank for the Oval, lets hope they do not regret it down the line.  One can see the Republicans do a half hearted attempt to block the nomination, but at the end of the day the Democrats control the US Senate.  Thus Secretary Hagel will have to deal with North Korea, Syria and Iran.  One can see that Israel will fear that Hagel will block any attempt for the US to attack Iran, thus Israel will have to take out its greatest threat to its existence, that being a nuclear armed Iran.  The Assad Regime and North Korea and Tehran will be happy, they see a weak Secretary who is the left of President Obama, no friend of Israel, does not see Iran as a threat, in fact wants talks.  The very fact of nominating Senator Hagel could lead to a regional war in Middle East folks.   That is why President Obama is a disaster for US and World security. 

Hagel Confirmation fight - 2nd Obama Term

Telegraph: Reports on the first day of the confirmation hearing for Senator Hagel to be the next US Defence Secretary, the article notes the following, " .. fumbled questions about America’s stance towards Iran Thursday, as he struggled through a Senate confirmation hearing. ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks not a good start, but the former Senator should get through, thus far this blog has not heard of any Democratic Senators will vote against him, also a President should have his choice at State and Defence, if any Democrats come out then it might change the outcome.   It not 100% that Hagel will get through, Senator Tower, the choice of Bush 41 failed to pass the Senate.  Lets see if the Jewish lobby and the those on the left can block the confirmation, those that support Israel are afraid that Hagel is soft on Iran, while the left has not forgotten his chosen remarks about a gay US Ambassador.    The Oval might need to spend some political capital to get this through, but it should be enough, in less Hagel does a major mistake over the next few days. 

Hagel Problem - 2nd Obama Term

The New York Times: Reports on the problems that Senator Hagel will face from his former Republican colleagues, the article notes the following on these issues, " a rough ride on his path to the Pentagon, questioning his support for Israel, his seriousness about the Iranian nuclear threat and his commitment to an adequate defense budget.  ".

Lets Get Real:

One of the top issues to face the Oval in 2013 will be Iran, how long can the Oval prevent Israel from taking action over Iran's nuclear plans, the sanctions from the rest of the World seems not to have worked, the currency in Tehran has gone through the floor, people are making side deals to get the basics, the Tehran Regime saw what happened to Gaddafi when Libya gave up its weapons of mass destruction, the Regime fell as it could not blackmail NATO, thus the Iran Regime wants endless talks as to allow it to reach its aim of being a nuclear armed power.   A Secretary Hagel at Defence would be a joke, the Tehran Regime would see that the Oval would never really hit Iran, thus why give up their WMDs, thus Israel has to prevent a Secretary Hagel as to keep the pressure on the Oval, this folks is that serious, a Secretary Hagel could lead to Israel taking action, in other words to prevent a Middle East War folks the Senate has to block this nomination.   It is that serious folks.  Not time for waiting, time to mount a campaign to destroy this nomination. 

The Hagel Message - 2nd Obama Term

Telegraph: Reports that the nomination of Senator Hagel to be US Defence Secretary sends the following message, " ... Chuck Hagel, an opponent of going to war with Iran and a critic of Israeli influence in Washington, .. ".

Lets Get Real: 

It time for supporters of Israel to phone their Senator and say that Senator Hagel should not nominated as Defence Secretary, Obama is quite out there in wanting to talk to Iran, he does not need a ECHO chamber to tell him what he wants to hear, that the US should talk to Iran and make Israel give concessions for a two State solution.    The Oval needs is powerful, but if his Cabinet force his hand then POTUS will have to bomb Iran, thus having Hagel at Defence would be a disaster for Israel and US national security in the Middle East.   Time for the Israeli lobby to show its power if it has any, time to show that money talks, its 2014 and 2016 within a few years, the Democrats will need money, money talks folks, that is the Chicago way. 

The Hagel fight - 2nd Obama Term

Guardian: Reports the following on the Hagel fight, " Hagel has also been critical of the use of military force against Iran by the US as well as voicing support for Iran's involvement in peace talks in Afghanistan, and has been unusually forthright for a US politician is discussing what he described as the "Jewish lobby" in the US,..  ".

Lets Get Real:

Thus folks is Hagel the next Senator Tower, in the Bush 41 Administration the US Senate rejected the nomination of Senator Tower, one of their own, thus its not 100% sure that Hagel will get through, the Republicans will put him through the ringer, there will be tough questions on Iran, Iraq, and the US ally of Israel.   The Hagel camp will also face problems from the left, he made made critical comments on gays, that is a powerful lobby within the Democratic Party.   The crunch will come with the Senate hearings, does Hagel make a mistake, does he get 100% support from Democrats, as Hagel is Republican in name only, there are Democrats who would get Republican support to be the next US Defence Secretary.    It you want to watch blood sports in the US politics watch the Senate conformation hearings for Hagel, lets see if the Republicans decide that Hagel hurts Obama so much they want him the Administration, a lose cannon bit like VP Biden.   Thus one can bet that Fox and CNN will have live coverage of the nomination fight, get the drinks in folks, lets see how many harsh questions that Hagel faces from his former Republican friends.